Modelling Reveals Likely Spread of New H7N9 Avian Flu

ananyo writes "With Taiwan announcing the first case of H7N9 avian flu outside mainland China, researchers have revealed how the virus may spread in China — and beyond. The projections use risk maps developed for human infection by another, well-established avian flu — H5N1. Indeed, when human cases of H7N9 are overlaid on a risk map, they appear to fall within the highest risk areas for H5N1. The map suggests that high-risk areas for H7N9 might include Shandong province (where the first case was reported 23 April) and a belt extending around the Bohai sea to Liaoning province in the north. Though there has been no evidence of sustained human-to-human spread of H7N9 so far, researchers have analyzed airline passenger data for China. Eastern China — the epicenter of the current the H7N9 outbreak — is one of the world's busiest hubs for airline traffic. From the Nature story: 'A quarter of the global population outside of China lives within two hours of an airport with a direct flight from the outbreak regions, and 70% if a single connecting flight is included.'"

What happened to the last pandemic?

[ne0n]

With all the crying wolf lately it's a wonder we still see these articles. What happened to SARS, did all five victims of the "pandemic" die without passing it on? H1N1 caused some sniffles. Donald Rumsfeld [snopes.com] made a killing with his quack medicine [cbsnews.com] while GSK fleeced the Brits out of a healthy chunk of their health budget [dailymail.co.uk] during the swine flu hoax. Every year there's a new fake pandemic.

Almost makes you hope the promised pandemic finally arrives to take out the idiots who keep pump-and-dumping their antiviral stocks.

Re:What happened to the last pandemic?

[i kan reed]

And the reason that number is so small is due in no small part because effective planning on the part of WHO. I won't side with the ridiculous media on their stupid panic-ridden publications about disease, but modern social health programs are a miracle.

Re:OH NO! Not again!

[JavaBear]

I was about to say something like that. Only less diplomatic.

People are remembering how previous, highly publicised breakouts turned out to be minor. At least globally.
They forget the immense effort by WHO and similar to prevent the outbreaks from becoming pandemics. SARS and N1H1 both were contained. Partially because they weren't as deadly as first thought, but definitely also due to enforced measures.

This new one, by all indications is no spring flu. This one kills, and if it does start spreading between humans directly, we are in trouble.

At least it'll probably help solve the global overpopulation problem rather efficiently.

Re:OH NO! Not again!

[TWiTfan]

This new one, by all indications is no spring flu. This one kills, and if it does start spreading between humans directly, we are in trouble.

Yeah, that's what they said about H5N1, and a million different viruses and diseases that were the disease-of-the-moment before that, going back decades (remember the Russian Flu, anyone?). A bunch of epidemiologists get a lot of grant money, news channels get some ratings from the disease-of-the-moment, the public overreacts like they always do, much bullshit is spoken, and a year or two later it's on to the next goddamned thing that's going to KILL US ALL!

And before you cite 1918 (as is ALWAYS cited in these pandemic scares), spare me. This isn't an era of shitty sanitation, poor understanding of viruses, awful medical treatment, and scores of people living in overcrowded tenements with no sewers and in crowded WWI-era military encampments.