Australian Economists Predictions No Better Than Flipping a Coin

First time accepted submitter ras writes "The Reserve Bank of Australia did some investigation into the accuracy of their economic predictions — the ones they use to run the country — with less than flattering results. '70 per cent of the RBA's forecasts for underlying inflation for the year ahead were close to the mark, but its predictions of economic growth were less accurate, and its unemployment rate estimates no better than [chance] ... The Reserve Bank employs numbers of people on very high pay and what they're admitting now is that their — all of this so-called science — has produced nothing more than what a roll of the dice could produce.'"

Re:Economy is not a science.

[Ryanrule]

Oblig dilbert

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJwwAVM1Auc [youtube.com]

Re:Economy is not a science.

[Forty Two Tenfold]

Trend prediction is statistics, not economics. As for econometrics, this illustrates how it operates:

Three econometricians went out hunting, and came across a large deer. The first econometrician fired, but missed, by a meter to the left. The second econometrician fired, but also missed, by a meter to the right. The third econometrician didn't fire, but shouted in triumph, "We got it! We got it!"

Re:Steeve Keen on the other hand...

[Anonymous Coward]

Unfortunately, he predicted 20 out of the last 2 recessions.

Re:Economy is not a science.

[mug funky]

this post needs all of the mods

Re:Random predictions are maybe even better

[VortexCortex]

They had a team of chimpanzees and a team of experts. The results were that the chimpanzees did better than the experts.

Since the chimpanzees can probably be considered a very good random number generator, it seems that it would also probably be better to use random predictions

So, you're just too damn chauvanistic to see the obvous? What's with you humans? Hell, yet another Monkey just conned another nation (this time Iran) to give them a free ride in a space ship. First into Space, Better at Economics, actually able to live in an environment without destroying its ecosystem... And yet you just keep ignoring the evidence? Why? Because it's different than what you were taught growing up?

I, for one, welcome our Super-Intelligent Ape overloards.

Eh mate?

[sjwt]

When did we go from talking about Australian [wikipedia.org] to Austrian? [wikipedia.org]

Just wondering?

Re:Economics...

[Kupfernigk]

That noise in Highgate Cemetery is Karl Marx shouting "You see? Everything I predicted about capitalism has come true. It's a pity nobody ever tried socialism, but give it time."

Re:No wonder ...

[c]

If they actually did and understood the implications, people would be hanging from lamp posts.

... but not without the high-speed traders cleaning up on rope market futures.