North Korea's Satellite Is Out of Control 450
Koreantoast writes "After failing on numerous occasions, North Korea has finally put a satellite in orbit. But according to US officials, it is now 'tumbling out of control.' This is bad news, and more bad news, covered in a double layer of extra bad news. From the article: 'According to US officials, it appears that North Korea's new satellite has failed to achieve a stable orbit and is now "tumbling out of control." The greatest danger is the threat of it colliding with another satellite, adding to the growing debris field around the earth.' A separate Gizmodo article provides links for tracking the current location of the satellite."
hmmm... (Score:5, Interesting)
US launches secret space drone... NK satellite suddenly goes into an uncontrolled descent.
1 + 1 = ...
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it (Score:5, Interesting)
I hear it has the capability to capture satellites. This should a good time to test it and make it public.
How can this be? (Score:5, Interesting)
If you're in orbit, you're in orbit. If your orbit is too low then it's a decaying orbit but "tumbling out of control" is a bit of hyperbole from the press. It might be harder to predict the re-entry if the satellite is spinning and has no attitude control; maybe that's what they mean. I suppose it's possible that it could strike that atmosphere and bounce before re-entering, but will it bounce high enough to impact something in LEO? Details please. I bet this is a tempest in a teapot; not that I condone NK's actions or think they're particularly smart.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it (Score:5, Interesting)
Assuming it's tumbling out of control, it has a predictable orbit and safe distance. Could they not maneuver the X-37B close to it with the main engine pointed towards the satellite (oriented in the direction opposite of the orbit), and fire the thruster, slowing down the satellite and hastening re-entry?
This is assuming the primary concern is that it shouldn't hit anything before re-entering, not the re-entry itself. After all, a random re-entry has incredibly low chances of doing any damage, while an in-orbit collision is pretty disastrous in terms of debris.
I would imagine that the X-37B would have to consume a great deal of fuel just to reach and match orbits with the satellite, if it were even possible.
Re:Start betting on where it'll land? (Score:3, Interesting)
Not sure if there would be time to deploy the military shuttle thing...
By amazing coincidence, they just launched the "military shuttle thing" -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2246629/U-S-military-sends-mystery-space-drone-orbit---STILL-wont-tell-mission-be.html [dailymail.co.uk]
What goes around, comes around (Score:5, Interesting)
In the original space race, when the Soviets launched a satellite, it was seen in the west as a proxy for an ICBM - the (correct) theory being, that a nation firing a sub-orbital rocket was "interesting", while a nation launching an orbital craft meant they could, potentially, hit "anywhere" (subject to orbital inclination and other similar factors)
Now that the Soviet Union has fallen, to be replaced by "friendly" (yeah, right) Russia, other nations can launch satellites with impunity (China, India etc). Most of them are, if not "friendly" to the west, are at least "not complete and utter fruitbats" (that's a technical term BTW).
North Korea (DPRK), though, is still transitioning from the "complete and utter fruitbat" of Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Un, so that, at this stage, it is hard to say whether the new Dear Leader's plans for satellites are peaceful or not.
Assumption 1: it is peaceful, so an out of control satellite is, as USA, Russia and several others have found out, merely an expensive mistake
Assumption 2: it is deliberately provocative, (we launch a satellite, so an ICBM is easier), so an out of control satellite is... well what, exactly?
Let's not forget that part of DPRK's posturing is directed inwards - their recent "nuclear accident" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanggang_explosion) - to quote wiki "No neighboring nations have claimed any detection of radioactive isotopes characteristic of a nuclear explosion.", even though their news media hinted it as such, means that even an unsuccessful satellite will still be seen as a "we are a major power" - when broadcast to those in DPRK
So... where from here? DPRK joins the space race. That is still a concern. Does it matter that the satellite failed? Only if it was intended to be "just a satellite" If it was a "proof of concept" for an ICBM, then a wonky orbit is still an orbit
Re:How can this be? (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it (Score:5, Interesting)
On the flip side, if you can't get a satellite to not die on the way up, what makes you think the nuke's systems will survive?
Re:So what does the world do about it? (Score:4, Interesting)
This is basically what was expected in Japan after WW2 based on what was happening in the final weeks of the war. In reality, it was one of the most peaceful occupations the world has ever seen. I don't think you can predict that easily how an oppressed and starving population will react to occupation.
Re:send the mini-shuttle over there to wack it (Score:4, Interesting)
Then again, if you were an out of control insane nation run by psychopaths and wanted to test an anti-satellite satellite against a real target, you would want to make sure it appeared like it was out of control too. Then it's all whoops, tee hee and pay me much money not to launch another one.
Re:It may not be stupidity (Score:4, Interesting)
The UN in general /can/ agree on Syria, it's just that Russia and China have their vetoes on the Security Council and used them to protect the Assad regime. Why? My theory is geopolitics: Russia is trying to keep a friendly government near its southwestern flank and head off US/NATO gains in the region, and possibly they're trying to keep Islamists off said flank lest the plague spread into their territory.
China's just wanting to cock-block us so we don't get too powerful, and maybe they've got some lucrative trade going on, or would like to.
Re:It may not be stupidity (Score:4, Interesting)
I liked that theory at first, but then I took a look at the orbital parameters... It seems to be almost pefect sun-synchronous orbit. Public experts where holding reaching sun-synchronous orbit out of reach impossibility for NK given the need to launch it at such an angle as not to have spent stages fall on ground where they could be construed a hostile action.
I'm sure we'll hear more on this in the coming hours, but it looks to me like they must've spent a lot of effort and risk on reaching sun-synchronous orbit (one conductive for earth-observation, such as spy or weather-satellites which NK claimed it would be). It doesn't seem credible that they would've done that just for a ballistic missile test and dummy payload. Also something about the way most news-sources quote the "tumbling out of control" seems to give up the impression they believe it initially had attitude control, though to be honest I'm curious to hear how they would determine when it had or didn't have attitue control.
Re:How can this be? (Score:5, Interesting)