Study Suggests Climate Change-Induced Drought Caused the Mayan Collapse 243
pigrabbitbear writes "The collapse of the Mayan empire has already caused plenty of consternation for scientists and average Joes alike, and we haven't even made it a quarter of the way through 2012 yet. But here's something to add a little more fuel to the fire: A new study suggests that climate change killed off the Mayans."
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:3, Interesting)
The gist of the article is that a succession of droughts over several years meant that they no longer had enough water to support their population numbers. Which caused resource wars between different city states, resulting in the self destruction of the civilisation.
Now, for sure, droughts are not that in frequent an occurrence in the current era, and AGW will change the areas that are affected by droughts. But most of the developed wold won't care because they aren't in the worst areas, and it's mostly poor black people affected.
What will affect the developed world more is peak oil, with the result of their not being enough oil for the population. Or at least not the amount of oil they are used to. That's what's going to cause your near future resource wars. And indeed the Iraq war has been a forerunner of that.
Re:Duh. (Score:5, Interesting)
In different climates the biological succession works the other way. For instance, right now, in New England, if you leave bare rock undisturbed, it starts growing lichens. The lichens eventually trap enough material to make the wetter spots suitable for mosses which move in next. Then come the grasses, which turn the place into a field. Eventually, the field builds up enough soil that shrubs and pioneer tree species can show up. And finally, the larger canopy trees move in, and you have a forest again. This process actually happened over about 150 years, as the farming that used to happen in New England moved westward leaving land behind.
Climate Change: is there ANYTHING it can't do ??? (Score:5, Interesting)
In other words, a planetary climate change contributed to the fall of the Maya. Which just goes to prove a point: climate is NOT a fixed value, but a variable with a substantial-enough range to cause major ecological changes in relatively short periods of time. . . .
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:1, Interesting)
Your information is out of date.
Thanks to shale oil, the very concept of "peak oil" has been debunked. Add in the fact that bio-diesel forms of fuel are up and coming, and we will have no shortage of fuel sources for the foreseeable future.
As the droughts have affected Saskatchewan and US mid-west farmers over the past few years, I fail to see how "it's mostly poor black people affected." Such a statement implies there is a racist mission where there is none. The simple fact is that as long as people can get their discount crap at the local stores, they really don't give a damn about the poor and starving in any nation.
It's not racism.
It's indifference and self-centeredness.
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:4, Interesting)
What a bunch of nonsense. There's a limited amount of oil in the ground anyway, even if shale oil increases the amount. That changes absolutely nothing about peak oil, except perhaps by postponing it by a little bit.
Also, things like shale oil are energy intensive to extract. Oil is only convenient because so far getting it has been easy. If you need to spend 2 gallons to dig up and progress 1 gallon, then it doesn't matter how much there is.
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:4, Interesting)
This is only partly true. It just softens the peak a lot.
Nah. At the current levels of energy consumption, natural gas from fraking alone satisfies all energy needs for the next 150 years. The technology for converting large fleets to liquid gas is already available. Personal autos will get there as an afterthought.
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:5, Interesting)
natural gas from fraking alone satisfies all energy needs for the next 150 years.
I doubt it. The average American consumes about 250 kWh per day. [cam.ac.uk] Natural gas accounts for something like 20% of that. Also, energy need is not constant, it will grow over the next 150 years because the population will grow. You can't just take total potential supply and divide it by the existing consumption, when demand is constantly rising.
Where does this 150 year figure come from anyway? The last time someone claimed 100 years, it turned out to be bogus: [slate.com]
By the same logic, you can claim to be a multibillionaire, including all your "probable, possible, and speculative resources."
Assuming that the United States continues to use about 24 tcf per annum, then, only an 11-year supply of natural gas is certain. The other 89 years' worth has not yet been shown to exist or to be recoverable.
Even that comparably modest estimate of 11 years’ supply may be optimistic. Those 273 tcf are located in reserves that are undrilled, but are adjacent to drilled tracts where gas has been produced. Due to large lateral differences in the geology of shale plays, production can vary considerably from adjacent wells.
Re:Advanced as They Were (Score:1, Interesting)
While we're at it....
Given 1% pop growth:
33 years until limit of earth's agricultural land to support every person with 1st world diet
229.9 years until limit of earth's arable land to feed every person on megre diet assuming energy to power tractors is available, horses require additional area for feed. Also note that almost every other land species is extinct at this point
885 years until 1 person per square meter of agricultural land (pastures included)
1357 years until 1 person per square foot on earth
3438 years until all mass on earth is a big ball of naked humans
9880 years until entire visible universe made of humans including black holes but excluding dark matter
Something has to give.