Pacific Northwest At Risk For Mega-Earthquake 457
Hugh Pickens writes "Science Daily Headlines reports on research by Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger showing that earthquakes of magnitude 8.2 (or higher) have occurred 41 times during the past 10,000 years in the Pacific Northwest. By extrapolation, there is a 37% chance of another major earthquake in the area in the next 50 years that could exceed the power of recent seismic events in Chile and Haiti. If a magnitude-9 quake does strike the Cascadia Subduction Zone, extending from northern Vancouver Island to northern California, the ground could shake for several minutes, highways could be torn to pieces, bridges might collapse, and buildings would be damaged or even crumble. If the epicenter is just offshore, coastal residents could have as little as 15 minutes of warning before a tsunami could strike. 'It is not a question of if a major earthquake will strike,' says Goldfinger, 'it is a matter of when. And the "when" is looking like it may not be that far in the future.'" Read below for more.
The last major earthquake to hit the Cascadia Subduction Zone was in January 1700. Scientists are aware of the impact because of written records from Japan documenting the damage caused by the ensuing tsunami, which crested across the Pacific at about 5 meters (15 feet). Knowledge about what happened in Oregon and Washington is more speculative, but the consensus — gleaned from studies of coastal estuaries, land formations, and river channels — is that the physical alteration to the coast was stunning. The outer coastal regions subsided and drowned coastal marshlands and forests, which were subsequently covered with younger sediments. "Perhaps more striking than the probability numbers is that we ... have already gone longer without an earthquake than 75% of the known times between earthquakes in the last 10,000 years," says Goldfinger. "And 50 years from now, that number will rise to 85 percent."
Well, as long as we're talking catastrophe (Score:4, Interesting)
I'm curious what the impact of earthquakes in/around the NW would have on the Yellowstone Caldera.
Granted, it sounds like the earthquakes in the NW are orders of magnitude more frequent (and less catastrophic) than the eruption of the Yellowstone formation, but it seems likely that one might impact the other, being that they're only what, about 700mi apart?
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:3, Interesting)
Oh wait...
Re:Same old thing... (Score:4, Interesting)
I've met people 20 years ago who moved away from Vancouver in 1980 because they were scared of the big earthquake that will come ANY DAY NOW!
There is probably more chance to get hit by a drunk driver when you are walking down the road where they moved to.
--jeffk++
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:3, Interesting)
Tornadoes just hit the trailer parks.
I was in a tornado [slashdot.org]. The tree behind the apartment I was living in looked like a weed someone had stomped on. There were trees with five foot diameter trunks uprooted; steel girders twisted, splinters driven into concrete blocks. The walk-in cooler at a bar down the street was ripped from the building. But the trailer park down the street was completely destroyed; it's a vacant lot now. Miraculously, nobody was seriously hurt!
This (central Illinois) may be the only place in the world where you can have snow storms, ice storms, rain, hail, sleet, and tornados all in the same week!
Re:damned lies (Score:5, Interesting)
But it's not pure extrapolation. Earthquakes in subduction zones are the result of pressure buildup. They are not spaced randomly, as the time between them is determined by the tectonic action that causes the pressure to be generated or released. Thus, the time difference between earthquakes is relevant.
Don't mock the Thunderbird (Score:4, Interesting)
Actually, there was a pretty interesting BBC Horizon show on this a while back. Possibly the origin of the Thunderbird legend in Native American mythology and they traced a likely quake to a Tsunami that caused flooding in Japan according to an existing written record that is well dated. Aside from coastal flooding the question was whether the modern buildings would bend or break. Show left it with, "it'll be an interesting test."
Re:Preparation (Score:5, Interesting)
If you live in the Pacific Northwest, there's a good chance that your house *is* built to at least some earthquake code. My house was built in 1960, has metal tie plates, and is bolted to the foundation, and not as a retrofit.
This isn't exactly new knowledge that earthquakes happen close to active volcanos, you know.
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:4, Interesting)
Besides, keep in mind that they said "Pacific Northwest". As in Seattle. And they note it's the Cascadia zone, which extends to Canada. And, by coincidence, northern California. This is pretty much along the western states.
Frankly, having grown up in California and now living in Seattle, I can deal with earthquakes - most of what they cause tends to be very mild widespread wide-scatter (emphasis on scatter) panic.
I'd rather live on the west coast than in, say, Pella Iowa. Not only are there twisters, but there is also little to do unless you're a dairy farmer. (Incidentally, I left California for another problem that isn't so much a disaster: little to no opportunity for someone of my skills.)
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Same old thing... (Score:4, Interesting)
So, while it is almost certainly more likely that a particular person will be killed by a drunk driver rather than killed by the earthquake, the likelihood of being caught up in it is significantly higher. And strictly speaking the earthquake is still coming any day now. We just don't have any good idea as to how to tell when it's going to happen. There's been some advances in that respect, but nobody can do so reliably based upon scientific inquiry.
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:3, Interesting)
Also remember a tornado is a small thing. The chances of a tornado that is within 5000 feet of your home to hit you are very very slim. Only freaks of nature have the supertornados that are nearly a mile wide, most are very narrow.
you have a better chance of getting hit by lightning than getting killed by a tornado directly.
I spent 1 summer as a volunteer storm chaser dropping a sensor payload in the path of a tornado. I was several times within 1000 feet of a tornado and certain it would go towards us. It did not the damn things are random.
Re:Washington? (Score:3, Interesting)
I know you meant this to be funny, but MSFT ( and google) are all over this earthquake thing. That, along with access to power, is why they are building data centers in eastern washington, away from the fault lines.
Re:Yet another reason... (Score:3, Interesting)
By the way, the bill specifically states that such rare and difficult-to-obtain forms of identification like A DRIVER'S LICENSE is acceptable evidence that you're here legally. Actually read the bill for yourself and stop relying on biases "news" sources to feed you twisted summaries and you might actually learn the truth.
[Citation needed]
I'll help you out. Here's the full text of the law: http://www.azleg.gov/legtext/49leg/2r/bills/sb1070s.pdf [azleg.gov]
I couldn't find any mention of a driver's license being sufficient proof of legality.
Re:damned lies (Score:3, Interesting)