Beyond the X-PRIZE — a $1.5B Commercial Lunar Market

coondoggie writes "Optimism certainly abounds in some corners of the manned space community. Today the aerospace consultancy Futron said that as much as $1.5 billion may be up for grabs for commercial space operation in the next ten years. The consultancy singled out the $30 million Google Lunar X-PRIZE contestants as a highly likely group to take advantage of such a cash pot, but there are many others who'd like a slice of that pie as well. But it's not all wine and roses; finances loom large over any space projects, and technology development is also proving to be a bugaboo. For example, even as NASA's commercial partners, such as SpaceX and Orbital, have made steady progress in developing space cargo transportation technology, they have also recently fallen behind their development schedules."

Development schedules

[BuR4N]

Sure, SpaceX is behind the schedule with the Falcon 9 and recently lost a customer ( http://spacefellowship.com/2009/07/13/spacex-lost-falcon-9-customer/ [spacefellowship.com] ). But if we look on the bright side, what SpaceX have accomplished so far, took two superpowers and a brewing cold war last time, for example the Merlin engine is the first new engine designed in the US since the 60's , they have launched Falcon 1 successfully recently ( http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20090715 [spacex.com] ) and pushes forward with the Dragon spacecraft ( http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php [spacex.com] ). I think all this speaks volume about private space flight and the very important role that X-Prize and such plays.

Re:Development schedules

[cheesybagel]

for example the Merlin engine is the first new engine designed in the US since the 60's

Nope. The SSME [wikipedia.org], RS-68 [wikipedia.org] were developed after the 60's.