Statistical Suspicions In Iran's Election 512
hoytak writes "An expert in electoral fraud, professor Walter Melbane, has released a detailed analysis (PDF) of available data in Iran's controversial election (summary here). While he did not find significant indications of fraud, he does note that all the deviations from the predicted model are in Ahmadinejad's favor: 'In general, combining the 2005 and 2009 data conveys the impression that a substantial core of the 2009 results reflected natural political process... [These] stand in contrast to the unusual pattern in which all of the notable discrepancies between the support Ahmadinejad actually received and the support the model predicts are always negative. This pattern needs to be explained before one can have confidence that natural election processes were not supplemented with artificial manipulations.'" In related news, EsonLinji notes reports in the Seattle PI and other sources that the US State Department has asked Twitter to delay system maintenance to prevent cutting off Iranians who have been relying on the service during the post-election crisis. And if you would like to help ease the communication crunch, reader RCulpepper tips a blog post detailing how to set up a proxy server for users with Iranian IP addresses.
I was suspicious (Score:3, Funny)
Re:This reads like electoral interference to me (Score:3, Funny)
Also, if the protesters have to rely on Twitter uptime ... They're pretty much screwed.
Does Twitter need to introduce the "Fail Camel" to not alienate the Iranian population?
Re:The problem of time (Score:1, Funny)
Only you could find a way to blame bush for this.
The biggest statistical red flags (Score:3, Funny)
There were several of the more liberal districts around Tehran where Pat Buchanan won.
Re:This reads like electoral interference to me (Score:4, Funny)
Well, there are rumours that the DoD has comissioned for a rewrite of Twitter in ADA with an Oracle backend. And it seems that the programmers already did the code, stress tested it and it could make twitter work.
But, the formal review and inspections process will take at least 6 months, that is, 6 months *after* the developers manage to write at least 5000 pages of documents, print them, sign each page and submit the work as done.
Reports says the rewrite was really easy, after the 3 programmers learned how to dodge the meetings, by convincing the 230 Program and Project Managers that humble programmers shouldn't be allowed to go to meetings so important to the success of the project.
Re:Election irregularities (Score:3, Funny)
"As a PoliSci student, I've spent a ton of time looking at election data for many countries, over the past hundred years or so."
Thats a long time to be a student.
Well, you know us university students, we hate to grow up and get a job.
Now to party like it's 1909 again!
Re:Come on, It's Iran already (Score:3, Funny)
but enough about the GOP...
Re:Come on, It's Iran already (Score:2, Funny)
You think that's funny?
Labeling around 50% of the population as being beneath you, because they don't share your opinions? The above statement only serves to highlight your level of intellectual development.
I'm a republican, and I bet I am far more educated than you are.