Miscalculation Invalidates LHC Safety Assurances 684
KentuckyFC writes "In a truly frightening study, physicists at the University of Oxford have identified a massive miscalculation that makes the LHC safety assurances more or less invalid (abstract). The focus of their work is not the safety of particle accelerators per se but the chances of any particular scientific argument being wrong. 'If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect,' say the team. That has serious implications for the LHC, which some people worry could generate black holes that will swallow the planet. Nobody at CERN has put a figure on the chances of the LHC destroying the planet. One study simply said: 'there is no risk of any significance whatsoever from such black holes.' The danger is that this thinking could be entirely flawed, but what are the chances of this? The Oxford team say that roughly one in a thousand scientific papers have to be withdrawn because of errors but generously suppose that in particle physics, the rate is one in 10,000."
What is the probability... (Score:2, Funny)
...that these researchers are wrong about the probability that the other researchers are wrong?
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:5, Funny)
ObUserFriendly (Score:4, Funny)
From last Sunday [userfriendly.org]
Re:Are they good for anything? (Score:4, Funny)
Great. Now in a matter of years we'll have hippies protesting abuse of Nature's Own Black Holes for generating power. It's not really sustainable energy if all the mass you add to the hole extends its event horizon. (Does it?)
Re:What is the probability... (Score:1, Funny)
...that these researchers are wrong about the probability that the other researchers are wrong?
1 in 1000. But only if they are right. If so the probability is zero. If they are wrong then its obviously 1. In any case, 42 seems like a good number for this type of question...
Re:My first thought from reading this (Score:5, Funny)
I STILL don't think the LHC will kill us all but the fact we're debating it says something.
I don't know what you're trying to imply here.
People are still debating evolution.
Bring it on! (Score:5, Funny)
My retirement fund is pretty much crushed at this point.
Being consumed by black holes created by a multibillion dollar scientific whiz-ma-gig is sounding like a pretty good exit plan.
Re:Are they good for anything? (Score:4, Funny)
Just feed them the darkety kind and we'll never miss it.
Well, the good news is (Score:4, Funny)
In the words of Dr Brian Cox (Score:5, Funny)
He's a particle physicist from my physics department (Manchester), and hence let it be known Oxford physicists are twats!
Heart of Gold (Score:5, Funny)
'If the probability estimate given by an argument is dwarfed by the chance that the argument itself is flawed, then the estimate is suspect,'
But if the improbability is large enough, and you hook it up to a nice, hot cup of tea; then we'll travel instantaneously through every point of the Universe, and possibly create a worried-looking whale and a bowl of petunias.
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:3, Funny)
You almost had a good excuse for staying in bed there. "Sorry Boss. I can't come to work today because if I get out of bed I might destroy the planet."
hubris (Score:2, Funny)
What were the experts' odds on Chernobyl?
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:5, Funny)
Re:A simple reason (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Are they good for anything? (Score:3, Funny)
The real problems come in when aliens from outside our space-time continuum try to harvest their young in your warp core, thinking it's a natural gravity well! Time starts doing some whacky stuff!
Re:Are they good for anything? (Score:5, Funny)
I'm fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean "bad"?
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:4, Funny)
> You don't say, "Oh well, we don't know for sure that anything bad will happen, so we'll just assume that it won't." That is voodoo science.
I say that to myself every time I put on my coat. I know I am lying to myself - with our limited understanding of the universe putting on clothes may very well trigger an unforseen event that destroys the solar system - but the snow outside has convinced me to sacrifice a little intellectual integrity in exchange for being able to wear my coat. Don't worry, I'm not taking too many risks: I'm not wearing anything underneath.
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:4, Funny)
Essentially their argument boils down to because people make mistakes and we can calculate the odds of them making a mistake, if they calculate the odds of something and it's greater than the odds of them having made a mistake then you have to use the odds of them making a mistake as the probability of the event happening.
Nuh-uh, that argument is solid and well formed.
Hey, I have another "scientific" theory, 1 out of every 460 scientific papers are about artificial intelligence, That means the LHC is alive and we don't even know it yet.!
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:5, Funny)
Yeah it is voodoo. If I calculate that there is a 1:10^20 chance an asteroid will destroy the earth this month, and someone else figures there is a 1:50 chance I am wrong, that does not make the odds of an asteroid destroying the earth 1:50. As wrong as the person calculating the odds are, the odds are still going to be incredibly small.
If what you were saying was true we could destroy the earth by having a 10 year old do the calculations since they would almost certainly be wrong.
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:3, Funny)
You are wrong, it is not alive. It just emailed me and said that there was nothing to see here and keep moving along.
Re:Are they good for anything? (Score:5, Funny)
Who would remember if we all died?
The race of intelligent beings who, millions of years from now, finds a small black hole orbiting a star, with a flag on its moon.
Honestly, if the human race has to end, that is exactly how I want us to go out.
Re:Meh.... not really a problem (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:4, Funny)
When it comes right down to it, though, the odds of creating a dangerous black hole is effectively zero, as evidenced by the fact that the various bodies of the solar system aren't black holes.
So what happened to the other 200 planets?
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:5, Funny)
No need for that. You can subscribe to this RSS feed
http://www.hasthelhcdestroyedtheearth.com/rss.xml [hasthelhcd...eearth.com]
This is funny too
http://www.hasthelhcdestroyedtheearth.com/robots.txt [hasthelhcd...eearth.com]
Re:My first thought from reading this (Score:5, Funny)
I am sorry, The THEORY of evolution and the THEORY of creation both imply that I am somehow related to the people who make LOL cats and I just can not accept that. I CAN NOT accept that.
Re:Uncertainty and certainty (Score:5, Funny)
How many times can we roll the dice before our luck runs out?
Every single time. After that, there won't be any more dice to roll, or anyone to roll them if they did exist.
If we had some dice, we could roll them, if we existed.
Re:A simple reason (Score:4, Funny)
Are you really sure about this? I've played Katamari Damacy and a small little ball starting at less than 1 cm, bumps into random things thus growing in size. Eventually, the ball is able to roll over and absorb the earth, other planets, stars and other galaxies and (presumably black holes). What's left after I don't know - it was an computer-based physics simulation played on my television screen.
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:5, Funny)
I have calculated that there is almost no chance of money spontaneously raining out of the sky above me. However, I was drunk when I made those calculations, so they are most certainly wrong.
*waits expectantly*
Re:My first thought from reading this (Score:3, Funny)
It makes me shiver just to think about it.
Re:An excerise in stating the bloody obvious (Score:5, Funny)
Yes, yes, but what is it if I look inside the box?
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:4, Funny)
Welcome to slashdot, where an insightful post such as yours is moderated up as funny...
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:2, Funny)
Re:An excerise in stating the bloody obvious (Score:2, Funny)
Spartaaaaaa?
Re:Uncertainty and certainty (Score:1, Funny)
As long as it's uncertain, move it closer to France.
Re:Voodoo Science (Score:2, Funny)
Even funnier is the html code for the home page:
http://www.hasthelhcdestroyedtheearth.com/ [hasthelhcd...eearth.com]
View the page source and enjoy.