ISS Dodges Space Junk For First Time In Five Years

Kligat writes "For the first time since 2003, the International Space Station has utilized the rockets on the European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle to dodge leftover remnants of a defunct satellite. The Russian Cosmos-2421 was launched in June 2006 to track Western Navy vessels and is believed by NASA to have exploded — 'likely due to a self-destruct command issued by Russian officials' according to the article — leaving 500 pieces of space debris. Ordinarily, the rockets on the ATV are used to take the ISS away from Earth's atmosphere and reduce drag. In this case, the 5-minute firing caused the ISS to move downward because it was already near the top of its acceptable range. Estimated probability of impact was 1 in 72, and an avoidance maneuver is called for if the probability is greater than 1 in 10,000. The space junk was predicted to pass the ISS within just a mile."

A mile?

[XanC]

Aren't orbital trajectories pretty well known? How is there a 1 in 72 chance that the thing will make a sudden mile-long jog and hit the station?

Re:Russia just can't tell the truth.

[icegreentea]

NASA doesn't have any spy satellites. The Defense Department does. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few fields of debris from US spy satellites that haven't been announced or anything. Such information is somewhat sensitive, and official denial may be important. Could be anything from 'protect the existence the other spy satellites in its family' to 'let's save face'. To be fair, I could totally see your DoD doing something similar.

it needs friggen lasers

[spotter]

this post made me wonder. could they repurpose the nautilus anti missle laser system to knock the space junk that threatens the station out of the vacum of space. Or could it make things worse? (lots of tiny particles you can't avoid vs. a couple of big particles.

Re:In SOVIET RUSSIA..

[ctetc007]

Actually, this really sucks because the rockets were used to LOWER the ISS. What a waste. I wonder how much warning they get before estimated impact.

Actually, they were planning to lower the ISS for the next few missions anyway so that the shuttle would be able to bring up more cargo than usual. This maneuver wasn't so much a waste as it would seem to be.

Re:Within 1 mile?

[c6gunner]

That's a heck of a close call, considering the ISS is traveling at 4.8 miles per second. That's little like a car at highway speed running a red light and missing another car by less than one car length.

Not really, since their relative speeds may be far less. If the debris cloud is traveling on the same trajectory at 4.7 miles per second, then their relative velocity is only 360 miles per hour.

On the other hand, if it's traveling on the exact opposite trajectory at the same speed .... ouch.

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