Please create an account to participate in the Slashdot moderation system

 



Forgot your password?
typodupeerror
×
NASA Space

Shuttle Retirement In 2010 Under Review 210

An anonymous reader alerts us to an Orlando Sentinel report based on a leaked NASA email, indicating that NASA is looking at options to extend the Shuttle program. The fighting between Russia and Georgia has put a strain on plans to rely on Russian boosters until the Shuttle's replacement flies in 2015. Yet extending the Shuttle's life is no sure thing. According to a former NASA program manager, "We started shutting down the shuttle four years ago. That horse has left the barn." And NASA Administrator Michael Griffin has told Congress that if the Shuttle fleet were to fly two missions a year until 2015, "the risk would be about one in 12 that we would lose another crew. That's a high risk... [one] I would not choose to accept on behalf of our astronauts." And then there's the matter of finding the $4 billion a year it would take to keep the fleet operational. The Sentinel mentions that John McCain has called for additional Shuttle flights, but doesn't mention that Barack Obama has made the same point, as the BBC reports.
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

Shuttle Retirement In 2010 Under Review

Comments Filter:
  • Nothing is 'safe' (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Entropy98 ( 1340659 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:16PM (#24821197) Homepage
    Not that we shouldn't try and make space travel safer, but the idea that loss of life is completely unacceptable I find very strange when we have no problem sending people who may or may not understand the risks into a myriad of dangerous situations where the loss of someones life is all but guaranteed. War, crab fishing, oil drilling, car driving, and on and on.
    --
    Find My Ip Address [ipfinding.com]
    • Re: (Score:2, Insightful)

      by Gerafix ( 1028986 )
      Of course, but those are very non-scientific things that offer immediate rewards (bad guys die omg!, oil is money and money is good, car driving gets us to the nearest McD's). This is what the average joe sees, then he/she looks at the space program and goes "Why?" Not to mention government is going "We need money for other things like bombs and bullets" So they aren't going to market to Average Joe just how great the Space Program really is and how it advances ALL OF HUMANITY through knowledge. But knowled
      • by Snowspinner ( 627098 ) <{ude.lfu} {ta} {dnaslihp}> on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:41PM (#24821447) Homepage

        The average joe understood the space program just fine in the 60s when it was about doing something. The problem with justifying funding for the space program is that, frankly, the shuttle didn't justify funding. It did virtually nothing of merit in its entire lifespan. If the space program actually became about doing something - exploring, discovering, and pushing our way out into the universe - then it would be trivial to generate support for it. But short of a pretty-looking launch every month, which understandably got boring after 20+ years, the space shuttle does nothing of interest.

        Returning to the moon, or going back to Mars, or making a sustained push to research Io, a moon that likely has liquid water? Any of those things would be trivial to justify to the American people.

        • Re: (Score:2, Interesting)

          by Anonymous Coward

          It did exactly what it was designed to do; launch very large, very sensitive satellites. You all have missed a very large and important part of history.

          • true. the shuttle has been useful in launching satellites, like the hubble space telescope, and also the repairs for the hubble telescope. but other countries can now launch satellites far cheaper than the shuttle program costs. and, frankly, the shuttle program isn't being used to do much exploratory research like the space program was initially meant for.

            it just doesn't make sense for the public to pay for expensive shuttle launches that really only offer direct benefits to private industries. that's not

        • Re:Nothing is 'safe' (Score:5, Informative)

          by meringuoid ( 568297 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @03:14PM (#24821747)
          making a sustained push to research Io, a moon that likely has liquid water?

          Io is a volcanic hellhole. You're probably thinking of Europa.

        • Re:Nothing is 'safe' (Score:5, Informative)

          by bonehead ( 6382 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @04:15PM (#24822281)

          It did virtually nothing of merit in its entire lifespan.

          That is entirely untrue. It functioned quite well as, shall we say, an "SUV" (Space Utility Vehicle). It carried satellites and other payloads into space, it carried astronauts to perform repair work on, perhaps most notably, the Hubble and the ISS. It hosted a variety of scientific experiments.

          To say that the shuttle accomplished nothing is absurd. The problem with the shuttle is that it was too expensive for what it did. The reusable nature didn't reduce costs in the way it was hoped when it was designed.

          The shuttle accomplished a great deal. The problem is that most of those things could have been accomplished for less money.

          • by FleaPlus ( 6935 )

            The shuttle accomplished a great deal. The problem is that most of those things could have been accomplished for less money.

            Or rather, could be accomplished with less money using the knowledge we gained from the shuttle. I really think the best way to have done things would have been to treat the shuttle as a prototype, almost like an X-plane, and then after testing it for a few years used the lessons learned to design a better vehicle. Iterative development is a wonderful thing.

          • No, the real problem with the shuttle is it's too expensive for what we need it for, 24/7. For the small tasks.

            You don't need an 18-wheeler with a rocket engine to get some food at a local grocery store. You can ride a bike or drive a hybrid there and save some cash that way.

            The shuttle was and still is the only reliable and good method of launching massive stuff into space. It's not that great for just bringing up astronauts, though.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by moosesocks ( 264553 )

          The problem with justifying funding for the space program is that, frankly, the shuttle didn't justify funding. It did virtually nothing of merit in its entire lifespan.

          The Hubble disagrees with you. It is unequivocally one of the most important scientific instruments of the past 20 years.

          Granted, the hubble didn't *NEED* the Shuttle, but it was certainly instrumental in its launch, and vital to its repairs and servicing missions.

          Considering just how monumentally important the Hubble is/was, you could almost justify the entire program based on that. Unfortunately, the rest of the shuttle missions weren't quite as productive...

          • by M0b1u5 ( 569472 )

            Sorry: Only Shuttle was capable of lifting Hubble. It was designed to fit inside the shuttle's payload bay.

            Sure, it could have been designed for another class of lifter, but it wasn't. If the shuttle had died after Hubble was built, it'd be nothing but a curiosity in a space museum somewhere.

        • I don't understand why y'all are accepting the idea that we need to choose between "nothing" and "continue the shuttle" as our only options. Right here on /. a few weeks back we had a thred [slashdot.org] about options, starting with the ESA crew vehicle and going from there. Add the X-38 to the list and we've got at least half a dozen options beyond that the chowderheaded one of using the shuttle.
          Read Mullane [mikemullane.com]'s all too articulate book [google.com] to get some idea of how screwed up NASA's approach is if you haven't studied already.
      • This is what the average joe sees, then he/she looks at the space program and goes "Why?"

        It's not just average Joe who asks "why... right now?"
        Most people support the space program, they aren't completely short sighted. The problem comes with the price tags of manned flights, where the output seems to be far less, and costs are far more, than unmanned flights. Do we really need to spend billions on launches to put people in space so we can do simple experiments with bees and bubbles?
        It makes more sense to

        • by FleaPlus ( 6935 )

          It makes more sense to continue research into efficient launch systems until prices for manned spacecrafts become more reasonable and safer. Unless there is some magic experiment I'm not aware of that would fix all of humanity's ills and can't wait 20 years?

          Despite the way the discussion is usually framed around here (e.g. "Space" being a sub-category of "Science"), there are some things more important than science for humanity to do in space.

      • by pato101 ( 851725 )

        car driving gets us to the nearest McD's

        Dammed! if we don't die driving we will because a heart attack!

    • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

      by Atmchicago ( 555403 )

      Besides the fact that most societies value the life of their people (generally speaking), you can also think of this from an economic standpoint: these astronauts have a lot of experience and very specific knowledge, and are also physically fit etc. A lot has been invested in them, and they're worth a lot. So risking your crew that way can cost a lot of money.

      And then, of course, people have a lot of pride in the space program, and losing people in space gives a big blow to the average Joe's perception of

    • Those other risky things don't carry such high risk as a proportion of the number of people undertaking them - 1/12 chance of losing a crew equals quite a high proportion of the astronauts launched potentially dying.

      A lot more people die while driving in terms of raw numbers, but a lot less if you convert it to a percentage of all car-owners.

    • "Nobody panics when the expected people got killed. Nobody panics when things go according to plan, even if the plans are horrifying. If I tell the press that tomorrow a gangbanger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will get blown up, nobody panics. But when I say one little old mayor will die, everyone loses their minds!"
    • Let's make some comparisons, non-military:

      Fishers and related: 118.4 per 100k. That means you're a bit over .1% likely to die on the job.
      Logging: 92.9. Just a smidgen less
      Aircraft pilots & engineers: 66.9.

      A '1 in 12' chance - if that's per mission it's 8.3% likely to kill you. Assuming 1 mission per year.

      If it's a 1 in 12 over the 5 year extension, 2 flights a year, it's not as bad. Assume any given astronaut only flies once a year, that's a .83% chance of being killed per year, discounting all othe

  • by untree ( 851145 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:20PM (#24821233)

    I mean, NASA already has the program in place and already has participants. It would take a hell of a lot less than $4B/year to speed up COTS.

    More info: http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/esmd/ccc/ [nasa.gov]

    • I really don't want NASA any more involved in the independent programs than absolutely necessary. These things tend to balloon to meet political objectives. "Project A gets $15 million in additional funding if it builds the engines in Backwater, WY." NASA assigns program managers, the PMs get staff, the staff needs support...

      I'm happy to leave the commercial groups to their own means, even if it takes a little longer, to keep government out of it to the extent possible.

      • by FleaPlus ( 6935 )

        I'm happy to leave the commercial groups to their own means, even if it takes a little longer, to keep government out of it to the extent possible.

        From what I've observed though, COTS has been quite good about achieving a proper balance, offering financial incentives for reaching developmental milestones and end-goals, while making sure that the engineers at the companies (rather than government bureaucrats and politicians) are making the decisions about how best to develop their systems.

  • 1 in 12 odds. (Score:4, Insightful)

    by houbou ( 1097327 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:27PM (#24821315) Journal

    Slightly better than russian roulette uh?

    Seriously, you would think that the US would take a more "global" approach to space and start truly cooperating with other countries, say like uh.. Canada, UK, Japan, China, India, etc...

    After all the race for the stars should be for humanity's sake, not just one country.

    There would obviously be some economic advantages, that's for sure.

    Russia, I believe would join in, if a real "space" coalition would be formed, I'm sure of that, if only not to be left behind in any form of discovery.

    • Or Russia. The Russians know how to build big spacecraft: the Soyuz was big, simple, and robust, and there are enough engineers still left who could use work to resurrect it.
      • Uh, what are you talking about? Soyuz is still in use, and it's quite small (comparable to Gemini). You might be thinking about Energia, but while it was big, it was far from simple, and only had one flight. You could probably revive the Saturn V as quickly as Energia with similar capabilities. Same with Titan 4. But why bother - what you need is a way to mount large payloads on a Delta 4 Heavy, which exists *now* and is still in production.

                Brett

        • Let's look. The Soyuz U has a 1350 pound capacity to geostationary orbit. That is _not_ LEO, it's much more difficult. The Titan craft, used by Gemini, had about 7500 pounds to LEO. This gives some sort of scale comparison to the Shuttle's 53,000 pounds to LEO, and its 8400 pounds to GTO. So, it takes about 6 Soyuz missions to match the capacity of one Shuttle mussion. Soyz also matched well to Apollo's 210 cubic feet of space, although the Saturn V's of Apollo use launched the 67,000 pounds to lunar orbit.
    • Seriously, you would think that the US would take a more "global" approach to space and start truly cooperating with other countries, say like uh.. Canada, UK, Japan, China, India, etc...

      I think that's why it's called the International Space Station because some 15 nations are involved in its construction. [nasa.gov]

      Problem is Russia is acting like a thug and saying "we're an irreplaceable ISS partner so suck it..." We have to show Russia that she isn't irreplaceable otherwise she'll keep behaving like a thug. [michaeltotten.com] Sinc

      • by houbou ( 1097327 )

        We have to give the Russians a bit of leeway here.

        First and foremost, this is a country that's only been so called "democratic" for less than 20 yrs.

        It's got lots of internal problems to deal with for sure.

        Second, they are not thugs, they have been useful when it comes to space duties. Admit it, and get over it.

        Yes, they like to be recognized a lot, but that's a sign of immaturity, certainly, they are like children when it comes to dealing with the rest of the world, diplomacy isn't their forte. Do try an

    • "After all the race for the stars should be for humanity's sake, not just one country."

      Given nobody has even the first inkling of a theoretical approach toward starting to work out how to talk about designing a warp drive, and most physicists seem to think it's a priori impossible, that would be a rather slow race.

      Did you mean "the race to be the second country to land massively inefficient but impressive looking human rated spacecraft on a bunch of inhospitable rocks that aren't actually useful for anythin

  • Ugh. Kill it. (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Snowspinner ( 627098 ) <{ude.lfu} {ta} {dnaslihp}> on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:38PM (#24821411) Homepage

    Kill the shuttle. Every year we extend the shuttle is a year that it's easier to make excuses for not having Orion ready. The shuttle was a disastrous decision from the start - a joke of a space program that made no progress in exploration, and provides nothing in the way of useful scientific research except inasmuch as it was used to work on the Hubble.

    The sooner it is put out to pasture the sooner this country can have a real space program again.

    • by johannesg ( 664142 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @02:48PM (#24821505)

      Agreed. Besides, that 4 billion could be spent on extending the war in Iraq by another 1.6667 weeks!

    • Mostly true... (Score:3, Insightful)

      by untree ( 851145 )
      But it would be a tragedy if Orion replaced the Shuttle's current functionality. The whole point of Ares/Orion should be exploration, not the menial (and uninspiring) resupply of low-Earth orbit. That's where I'd like to see broader use of commercial options, like SpaceX [spacex.com], Blue Origin [blueorigin.com], Orbital Sciences [orbital.com], or an assortment of others [personalspaceflight.org].
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by satoshi1 ( 794000 )
      I still fail to see how going back to a capsule instead of an actual vehicle will help improve space travel... It just seems like a step backwards. Surely there's some way to combine the capsule and shuttle designs to come up with something truly reusable that will also allow planetary/satellite(ary?) landings? I dunno, I hate to admit it, but I have not kept up with the space program nearly as much as I wish I would have.
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      by fermion ( 181285 )
      I agree We currently have three shuttles. It is not feasible to run a long term program on three vehicles. At some point one will no longer be serviceable, and we will have two vehicles, with no successor program.

      It is clear to me that there is not serious desire to create the next space vehicle. President Bush promised a new Space Age, but failed to fund it. Clearly he has no problem spending money, even money we don't have, so the fact that we have no functioning Orion space craft 4 and half years af

  • shuttle industry (Score:4, Insightful)

    by snsh ( 968808 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @03:05PM (#24821665)
    The shuttle program is primarily a technology-jobs program. The science stuff they do in space (orbiting grade-school teachers, studying John Glenn's bones) is kind of trivial compared to the 10,000 high-tech jobs created in the USA, paid for by the billions of dollars NASA spends on shuttle contracts. How all that money would otherwise get spent, is what I wonder about.
    • It's not like there's a surplus of cash sitting around in Washington DC that needs to be spent. It's kind of the opposite situation, with money being borrowed to pay for things people are "entitled" to, and the interest on all that money that was previously borrowed.
  • I could have told you the shuttles will keep on flying. It'd be embarrassing for the Americans to have to rely on others to get American astronauts into space. The shuttles will keep on flying until another one blows up. Keep in mind that the Orion program will be years late and billions over budget. There'll be quite a gap to stop.
  • Contract PRIVATE sector companies.

    • by ricegf ( 1059658 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @03:30PM (#24821883) Journal

      Exactly. Then we'll need a government organization to manage the contracts. Let's call them, I don't know, "NASA".

      Oh, wait...

    • Re:Get rid of Nasa (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Richard_at_work ( 517087 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @03:32PM (#24821913)
      Who precisely do you think actually builds, services and maintains these craft? Thats right, the OEMs and not NASA. The Shuttle was built by Rockwell, now maintained by Boeing. Orion will be built by private sector companies (Lockheed as prime contractor, with a whole bunch of others as subcontractors), Ares will be built by private sector companies (Alliant and Boeing as prime contractors) - so what do you propose to do differently?
      • by FleaPlus ( 6935 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @04:32PM (#24822429) Journal

        Who precisely do you think actually builds, services and maintains these craft? Thats right, the OEMs and not NASA. The Shuttle was built by Rockwell, now maintained by Boeing. Orion will be built by private sector companies (Lockheed as prime contractor, with a whole bunch of others as subcontractors), Ares will be built by private sector companies (Alliant and Boeing as prime contractors) - so what do you propose to do differently?

        A couple things:

        * don't use cost-plus contracts, which reward waste

        * Instead of specifying a single design and essentially giving one company a monopoly over manned spaceflight, do things like the rest of the transportation market and commercial satellite launches -- just purchase individual rides or payload deliveries. SpaceX [wikipedia.org] , Orbital [orbital.com], and Lockheed Martin [blogspot.com] are all currently working on orbital manned spaceflight systems. As it is now, it looks like they're going to have to end up competing against NASA's Ares I. Instead of competing against them, NASA should ditch Ares I and just offer transportation contracts to give these companies the financial incentive to speed development of their vehicles.

        NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Systems [wikipedia.org] program is a huge step in the right direction -- it's only getting a fraction of the budget (total is less than a single shuttle flight) that Ares I is getting, but is already showing much more progress and promise.

        • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

          by Kjella ( 173770 )

          * Instead of specifying a single design and essentially giving one company a monopoly over manned spaceflight, do things like the rest of the transportation market and commercial satellite launches -- just purchase individual rides or payload deliveries. SpaceX , Orbital, and Lockheed Martin are all currently working on orbital manned spaceflight systems. As it is now, it looks like they're going to have to end up competing against NASA's Ares I. Instead of competing against them, NASA should ditch Ares I and just offer transportation contracts to give these companies the financial incentive to speed development of their vehicles.

          If... and that's a big honking huge if, from what I've understood, any of these become actual commercial possibilities then sure. The first one you mention is SpaceX and they haven't made a rocket reach orbit yet, far less deliver cargo to orbit, far less something with a track record and security record to fly people for many years to come. I realize what you want but it sounds a little like the flying car that's always coming soon.

          • by FleaPlus ( 6935 )

            How many rockets has the Ares program launched so far? Also, do you dispute Orbital and Lockheed's ability to launch craft into orbit?

    • Isn't everything NASA does basically contracted from Lockheed and Boeing already?

      Or are you talking about the penny-ante private sector companies, the ones who haven't managed to even get a payload into orbit yet? How many years away from having meeting the Shuttle functional requirements? Twenty? Forty?

  • IIRC the US brought Russia in on ISS support to give the Russian rocket scientists something to do so they wouldn't go work for the likes of the Axis of Evil(tm).

    Which makes sense. Has that changed?

    As for flying the STS beyond its planned retirement, I think estimates of its reliability don't take account of the tlc it receives. Those things get practically rebuilt by some very big brains every time they fly. I do respect his 1/12 failure probability it's probably a rigorous number, but conservative.

    What pu

    • ...give the Russian rocket scientists something to do

      Russian scientists work for Russia. Always have.
      We (the West/USA) deluded ourselves into thinking we 'won' the cold war and could look into the eyes of Russia and see their soul.
      It turns out the cold war never ended, and any token partnership we had means nothing now.

      • Re: (Score:3, Interesting)

        by Max_W ( 812974 )
        Absolutely. You (the West, USA) deluded yourself that you "won" the cold war. The cold war just ended.

        There are complicated internal processes in Eurasia, in the FSU, but you keep your delusion that it is you who calls the shots.

        Eurasia is more than twice bigger than the North America by territory and more than 8 times by population.

        "The West", the Western Europe against the whole Eurasia is like Vermont and Maryland against the whole USA.

        Globalization is turning Eurasia in one giant market, 54 mill

        • Yes well. If Russia insists on being ruled by strongmen gangsters and China keeps killing anyone with original ideas, I don't think the west has much to worry about. The only horrible thing we will have to cope with is watching billions of Chinese and Indians starve and feeling rotten that there is nothing we can do.

  • Inevitable (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Richard_at_work ( 517087 ) on Sunday August 31, 2008 @03:26PM (#24821845)
    I've been waiting for this to happen - NASAs exemption to the Iran Non-Proliferation Act expires in 2011, meaning they would no longer be able to purchase manned capacity off the Russians (Soyuz), which in turn means no American crew on the ISS. What with the worsening relationship with Russia this past year, getting the exemption extended would essentially be political suicide at the moment. Extending the Shuttles life is the only alternative.
  • What does it mean? (Score:2, Informative)

    by Max_W ( 812974 )
    Vladimir Putin told in the interview to CNN that the US government trained, prepared and encouraged the Georgian army for the incursion into South Ossetia.

    According to Putin it was done to improve chances of one of the candidates, because when the international situation worsens, moves closer to a war, people tend to vote for a conservative candidate. Not for a change.

    If it is true then it should not have been a surprise that there was the tension with Russia.

    So the real reason then is not Russian pol

  • Communism was never the problem. The problem was and is, the Russians.

  • Compared to the cost of the ground support and the space craft. Launch the damn shuttle. If it blows up, it blows up. I bet you could find plenty of Americans willing to take their place, even with a 1 in 10 chance of getting killed, in exchange for a ride into space.

    Come on. To many people, spaceflight is worth the risk of death. If astronauts aren't willing to take that chance, fire them, and get someone who will.

  • It's inevitable. It would cost more to get Ares I to work than to make new shuttle parts. What about having 1 shuttle launch a year for crew transfer only & what if that freed up enough money for a shuttle derived lunar capability involving half a lunar payload on a shuttle & half on an Ares V.

Math is like love -- a simple idea but it can get complicated. -- R. Drabek

Working...