"Wisdom of Crowds" Works For Individuals Too 158
ideonexus writes "Take a crowd of people and have them guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, and the average of their answers will be remarkably accurate. Now researchers have found the same goes for asking one person to guess about the same thing several times. Accuracy improved when the individual was given longer periods of time between guesses." The anonymous author of the Economist piece, not quoting the researchers, says the finding bolsters the "generate and test" model of creative thinking.
In related news... (Score:4, Funny)
In related news, students were found to do far better on multiple choice tests when given an unlimited number of guesses at each question. Even students that didn't study eventually got As.
A little biased (Score:5, Funny)
"600 jelly beans?"
"Higher"
"900?"
"Looower...."
From the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.? (Score:5, Funny)
Do I contradict myself?
Very well then! I contradict myself!
Explains (Score:5, Funny)
This explains why there's so much informative discussion here at slashdot. N o one knows much of anything, but if you throw enough wild assed guesses at something, one of them is bound to be right, right?
Ah duh! (Score:5, Funny)
yea, no (Score:2, Funny)
Yes, a little right. No, not at all. Total bullshit. Yet also 100% right. Doorknob. Right about 30% of the time. Wait, what was the question?
Re:Ah duh! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:From the I-am-large-I-contain-multitudes dept.? (Score:3, Funny)
My name is Legion, for we are many
Sorry, can't resist... (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Explains (Score:2, Funny)
This assumes, of course, that everything in life is like a jar of jellybeans.
Unfortunately, it's not. Life is like a box of chocolates. Ask Forrest's momma.
Re:Should this be a surprise? (Score:3, Funny)
This is how you are able to catch a ball. Your brain doesn't do a physics calculation and determine where the ball will land. It guesses, watches, refines the guess, repeats, and eventually the guess is close enough so your hand is in the right spot to catch it.
Apparently that feature of the brain is broken for the players of the [Insert Name of Hated Sports Team].
(Hey...I try to make my put downs fun for everybody!)
Re:Wisdom of the Crowds" (Score:5, Funny)
That's What The Mice Wanted (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Ah duh! (Score:5, Funny)
The point is that while thinking long and hard about some problems can be helpful (e.g. designing something complex and technical), for other kinds of problems, added thought can hinder (e.g. when there are many confounding unknowns).
So that explains why most /.ers are single.