Psychologists Don't Know Math 566
stupefaction writes "The New York Times reports that an economist has exposed a mathematical fallacy at the heart of the experimental backing for the psychological theory of cognitive dissonance. The mistake is the same one that mathematicians both amateur and professional have made over the Monty Hall problem. From the article: "Like Monty Hall's choice of which door to open to reveal a goat, the monkey's choice of red over blue discloses information that changes the odds." The reporter John Tierney invites readers to comment on the goats-and-car paradox as well as on three other probabilistic brain-teasers."
Nice try! (Score:5, Funny)
Dude (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Nice try! (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Nice try! (Score:5, Funny)
Don't worry. (Score:4, Funny)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_hall_problem [wikipedia.org]
Pot, Kettle, Black (Score:5, Funny)
One should remember what happens when you put 50 economists in a room - you get 100 opinions - one for each hand.
I recognize that the author of the article may be correct, I just couldn't help commenting on the first sentence.
Cognitive Dissonance (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Dude (Score:3, Funny)
The "Monty Hall problem" link in the summary informed me that I need Flash to understand the problem.
However, on that page they then offer "Need to know more? 50% off home delivery of The Times."
This confuses me terribly - if I now pick the home delivery choice, does the probability of learning about the Monty Hall problem go down 50%?
Damn - I should have picked the Flash answer from the start.
Re:Hmmm.... (Score:5, Funny)
Re:The problem is a fallacy (Score:1, Funny)
I'm totally buying two tickets.
Re:I dislike things that "seem". (Score:4, Funny)
Inaccurate? (Score:5, Funny)
To the psychology researcher, it's more about getting the "story" right than actually quantifying anything.
Re:To be fair, mathemeticians didn't know math eit (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Inaccurate? (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Pot, Kettle, Black (Score:5, Funny)
But if they reveal their opinions, should you switch hands?
Re:To be fair, mathemeticians didn't know math eit (Score:5, Funny)
But there's a more-than-50% chance that 9 is prime!
I test primeness by dividing the test-number by all integers, from 2 through the test-number's square root, looking for a zero remainder. So, first, I divided 9 by 2. I worked on this for a while, and ended up with a nonzero remainder. So far, 9 looks prime, and I've already tested half of the potential divisors! In fact, there's just one more potential divisor to try: the number 3. I'm almost done, and everything rides on this final calculation. There's a lot of uncertainty here.
What are the chances that 9 is just going to happen to be divisible by the very last potential divisor that I try? I'll grant you that the chances are non-zero; there really are some composite numbers out there. But the chances aren't one, either. For example, when I was testing 17 for primeness, the last potential divisor I tried was 4, and it didn't work. This last calculation could go either way.
So here we are, having tested half of the possible divisors, and so far 9 is looking prime and there's just one more divisor to test against. So, I ask you: do you want to bet 9's primeness/compositeness on this last calculation? I'll make it easier for you: I tell you right now, that 9 is just like 17, in that it is not divisible by 4. And then, I'll even give you an option: we can finish the calculation by dividing 9 by 3, or you can change your candidate divisor to 5, now that you know 4 doesn't work. Well.. what'll it be?
Re:Nice try! (Score:5, Funny)
In the puzzle, I clicked on the car instead to avoid goat links. However, the car had a huge ugly rusted gaping hole in the back bumper, dripping oily sludge. It was horrible! I'll never look at cars the same way again. The humanity!
Re:Sadly, not as wrong as shown (Score:2, Funny)
Are you sure you're not an economist?
Explanation glosses over the most important point! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Hmmm.... (Score:5, Funny)
I wonder what does a true scotsman do?...
Re:Nice try! (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Nice try! (Score:2, Funny)
Re:They don't know math? (Score:3, Funny)
Wait... You don't have any psychological problems (other than replying to my post ^.^) You've never had sessions - you only run into this psychologist because she rents the space next to where you work. And you definitely haven't given her any money.
Do you mean to say, sir, that you are guilty of stealing psychology?!
Scientologists Paradox (Score:4, Funny)