IBM Using Complex Math To Manage Natural Disasters 115
coondoggie brings us a NetworkWorld story about IBM's efforts to use complex algorithms to manage responses to natural disasters. Researchers are making use of recent increases in processor speed and algorithm efficiency to develop a scalable, flexible model capable of handling the complicated planning involved in reacting to a crisis. Quoting:
"'We are creating a set of intellectual properties and software assets that can be employed to gauge and improve levels of preparedness to tackle unforeseen natural disasters,' says Dr. Gyana Parija. 'Most real-world problems involve uncertainty, and this has been the inspiration for us to tackle challenges in natural disaster management.' In the case of flooding, for example, the stochastic programming model would use various flood scenarios, resource supply capabilities at different dispatch locations, and fixed and variable costs associated with deployment of various flood-management resources to manage various risk measures. By assigning probabilities to the factors driving outcomes, the model outlines how limited resources can meet tomorrow's unknown demands or liabilities. In this way, the risks and rewards of various tradeoffs can be explored, IBM said."
It won't save us (Score:5, Informative)
"...Some members interviewed felt Brown showed an imperious attitude, and nicknamed him 'The Czar'."
Heckuva job, Brownie! More optimistically, I hope that their algorithms could predict the 4 or 5 "wild"- fires in Southern California which are all started mysteriously(on the same day) "in season."
before the flood of replies... (Score:5, Informative)
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The new thing with this apparently is that they're using a new mathematical model that previously was too computationally expensive to do on a large scale. Computers are powerful enough to use these models now.
Re:Complex math? (Score:3, Informative)
"The idea is to use high-level math techniques, which IBM calls Stochastic programming, to help speed up and simplify complex tasks "
Re:Monte Carlo (Score:1, Informative)
The idea behind it is that parametric uncertainties that can be characterized using a probability distribution. The optimization algorithm itself is often deterministic. (e.g. LP or NLP routines)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_programming [wikipedia.org]
The word "complex" is misplaced -- I think the author meant complicated. Stochastic problems of nontrivial size require significant computational horsepower to solve, and benefit tremendously from good formulations and massive computational resources.
That said, I agree, it's not really that newsworthy.
IBM Claiming Patent for 'Responding to Chaos' (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Complex math? (Score:5, Informative)
In mathematics, "complex" does not mean complicated any more than "proper" means correct or "rational" means sane or "group" means any old gathering or collection. These words have very specific meanings in mathematics, and using them for their general-English meaning, in the context of math, is at best confusing and at worst outright misleading.
You can talk about a "complex algorithm", and people will generally understand you mean a complicated one, because the word "algorithm" lends more of a computer-science context. You can say "complex way of doing things" and convey the idea of complicatedness, because "way of doing things" is sufficiently general that it doesn't really imply any particular context at all. But saying "complex math" very much conveys the idea of the use of complex numbers (i.e., numbers with a real part and an imaginary part, either or neither or both of which may be zero for any given number) because the word "math" strongly implies a mathematics context and draws the math-jargon sense of the word "complex" to the forefront. Only someone who doesn't *know* what the word "complex" means in mathematics would think of any other meaning.
It's like saying "hedge fund" and expecting people to get the idea that you're collecting money for shrubberies. Only someone with no idea what a hedge fund is would get that impression.
Stochastic programming? (Score:3, Informative)
In other words, it took LOTS of data.
But, once you entered the data, you could tell the system "I want 99.999% uptime" and it would give you the most cost efficient way to buy and store the parts needed. Or you could start with a budget and find out what sort of availability you could afford. Depending on the size of the operation and criticality of the availability you could save a lot of money or really help with availability.
It sounds like this software does something similar. In the spares optimization, you don't know which airport your plane will be at when it's engine needs replacing. In the disaster scenario, you don't know where the disaster will strike. In the first case, you're optimizing spare part allocation. In the second you're optimizing recovery supplies and equipment. Either way you get the best probabilities you can and optimize the best you can.
Yeah, I know. I read the article. AND posted an on-topic, very un-funny comment. I must be new here. Well, this user ID is new, at least.
Re:Easy (Score:3, Informative)
Secondly, while I know it's somewhat rude make an issue of sigs, you are aware that actual children are harmed in the making of child pornography, right?
We are in the midst of failure of such analysis... (Score:3, Informative)