Helium Crisis Approaching 501
vrmlguy writes "Within nine years the National Helium Reserve will be depleted, according to an article in Science Daily. It quotes Dr. Lee Sobotka, of Washington University in St. Louis: 'Helium is non-renewable and irreplaceable. Its properties are unique and unlike hydrocarbon fuels (natural gas or oil), there are no biosynthetic ways to make an alternative to helium. All should make better efforts to recycle it.' (The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a local article with quotes from Dr. Sobotka and representatives of the balloon industry.) On Earth, Helium is found mixed with natural gas, but few producers capture it. Extracting it from the atmosphere is not cost-effective. The US created a stockpile, the National Helium Reserve, in 1925 for use by military dirigibles, but stopped stockpiling it in 1995 as a cost-saving measure."
This is a capitalist economy (Score:5, Insightful)
helium toy balloons (Score:4, Insightful)
Well as it gets scarce the prices will go up. Maybe some people should start hoarding now
Where's the problem? (Score:5, Insightful)
Doesn't that mean that the offer outweighs the demand by a landslide? Doesn't this mean that there were a lot of people smooching the US national helium reserve for a long time?
Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
It's not the End of the World, but you can see it from here, and if we're not careful Things Could Go Poorly. The problem is the smartest people around think "technology" will fix the "resource" problem. Given unlimited energy and resources, perhaps this is true, but we don't live in a world where there are unlimited resources. So, if we're at the top of the heap - look around you: this is as good as it gets.
RS
Increase public awareness (Score:5, Insightful)
That, my friends is one of the best reasons for putting money into space exploration rather than wars for oil. We're still far from being able to actually mine anything that's not already on our planet, but we're not so far from a shortage in the critical resources that would make extraterrestrial retrieval of resources possible in the first place.
With Helium it's actually a matter of re-using what we have - gas recycling hasn't been much of an issue in the past, but people need to hear about it. And please don't throw 'statistical evidence' at me that suggests 'there is no crisis'. Even the potential crisis is enough to be worried about it, if the implications are that dramatic. Much of our economical and scientific growth currently depends on the reckless abuse of non-renewable (or non-renewed) resources. We don't want to break Moore's Law, do we?
Re:What? (Score:5, Insightful)
Cost effective? (Score:5, Insightful)
Not now, but as the availability goes down and focus turns to finding ways to extract helium more efficiently, along with a sharp price rise, then the incipient profit involved in extraction will likely create a market for atmospheric or some other method of extraction... or perhaps lead to the future ability to synthesise helium.
My question: can any science-types here list some important uses of helium? I'm sure that there are some, but I can't think of any off the top of my head.
Re:Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
As for technology fixing the problem... How do you know it won't? 100 years ago, they could have said the same... And been wrong. Nuclear was invented after that.
Every generation seems to think this is 'as good as it gets' and every generation has been proven wrong. Our technology is still advancing faster than ever.
Am I putting blind faith in technology? No. I think we should conserve and recycle. I think we should specifically research the issues of the day instead of random other things. But I also know that researching 'random other things' has created some of our best technology.
Supply and demand (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Where's the problem? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
Do take a stroll by any of your local industrial plants -- doesn't matter what it is. Steel, say. Or a gas liquification plant. Now figure out how you're going to get all of that into space. Not orbit, you need it orbiting the sun, not the Earth because the stuff you're talking about what we want isn't floating around around the earth. Now figure out how you're going to shield it from radiation, and feed the hundreds of employees. And keep in mind all of that capacity is to produce something for a regional demand, not a global demand.
Even when you've got it, now figure out how you're going to get it back down to the ground. (We'll ignore the fact that most of the resources are tied up in other gravity wells...)
Your statement may be intellectually correct, but its about as realistic as sitting in the jungles of central america 12,000 years ago and taking solice in the availability of some resource you need, buried a mile inside of Everest and nowhere else.
Re:Peak Everything (Score:1, Insightful)
Moon (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
I think you may need to adjust your frame of reference somewhat. Have a look at the fall of he Roman Empire, the Dark Ages, what happened to the Mayans, Easter Island etc. and think again about whether every generation has been proven wrong
Don't forget the physics (Score:4, Insightful)
1. It's the smallest atom/molecule, since hydrogen is diatomic and H2 is a bit bigger than He. This makes it more difficult to store as it can get through any holes in a container
2. It escapes from the atmosphere. So, once it's out of the container it goes into outer space and is gone forever.
Not cost-effective (Score:3, Insightful)
Not cost-effective, eh? Well, in nine years, it will be! When your options are to use hydrogen, or tro to convince your friendly neighbourhood refinery to start capturing helium, then it will darn well be cost-effective to buy my extracted-from-the-sky-and-stockpiled-in-my-bunker helium instead...
Re:Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
Granted, we still have a long ways to go in terms of exploiting those laws of physics to generate energy/resources, but the fact remains that our "catalogue" of Earth's natural resources is largely complete.
We know what materials are available to us, we know which of those materials can be used to generate energy, and we know that we're quickly running out of all of them. Although Nuclear fusion/fission offer the promise of "turning nothing into something", even our current supply of fissile material is most certainly finite (and we must take great care to properly re-process and re-use spent fuel).
I'd love to be proven wrong, but I'm really not sure we're going to uncover any magical new energy sources in the near future. Fusion research should of course be pursued (preferably funding several different designs, as there are quite a few worthy candidates), although every current indication shows that viable Fusion generation is going to be *really* *really* difficult, even if we do figure out how to sustain the reaction.
Re:Increase public awareness (Score:3, Insightful)
lets see
Because it is lighter than air, airships and balloons are inflated with helium for lift. In airships, helium is preferred over hydrogen because it is not flammable and has 92.64% of the buoyancy (or lifting power) of the alternative hydrogen (see calculation.)
not that important because most really important uses of balloons (weather monitoring) are unmanned and so can use hydrogen.
For its low solubility in water, the major part of human blood, air mixtures of helium with oxygen and nitrogen (Trimix), with oxygen only (Heliox), with common air (heliair), and with hydrogen and oxygen (hydreliox), are used in deep-sea breathing systems to reduce the high-pressure risk of nitrogen narcosis, decompression sickness, and oxygen toxicity.
While a lot of diving is done just for pleasure diving is also done for industrial reasons such as maintinance of oil/gas rigs, some of that diving is pretty deep. Helium is by far the best mixer gas (and you need some mixer gas to get the overall pressure of the breathing gas right withotu making the partial pressure of oxygen/nitrogen dangerously high) for high pressure diving because it has a low molecular mass, is safe to handle and no (or at least very little) affect on the body.
* At extremely low temperatures, liquid helium is used to cool certain metals to produce superconductivity, such as in superconducting magnets used in magnetic resonance imaging. Helium at low temperatures is also used in cryogenics.
magnetic resonance imaging is a pretty important part of modern medicines.
* For its inertness and high thermal conductivity, neutron transparency, and because it does not form radioactive isotopes under reactor conditions, helium is used as a coolant in some nuclear reactors, such as pebble-bed reactors.
nuclear reactors are probablly going to be the main power source of the next half century or so once we realise that burning fossil fuels at the current rate is not reasonable, that renewables are an extra at best and that fusion is still a long way off.
* Helium is used as a shielding gas in arc welding processes on materials that are contaminated easily by air. It is especially useful in overhead welding, because it is lighter than air and thus floats, whereas other shielding gases sink.
welding is pretty important in a lot of industries
* Because it is inert, helium is used as a protective gas in growing silicon and germanium crystals, in titanium and zirconium production, in gas chromatography, and as an atmosphere for protecting historical documents. This property also makes it useful in supersonic wind tunnels.
silicon based computers have become a pretty vital part of the world economy
in rocketry, helium is used as an ullage medium to displace fuel and oxidizers in storage tanks and to condense hydrogen and oxygen to make rocket fuel. It is also used to purge fuel and oxidizer from ground support equipment prior to launch and to pre-cool liquid hydrogen in space vehicles. For example, the Saturn V booster used in the Apollo program needed about 13 million cubic feet (370,000 m) of helium to launch
while manned space exploration doesn't really achive all that much sattalites have certainly become pretty important in the modern world.
Because of its extremely low index of refraction, the use of helium reduces the distorting effects of temperature variations in the space between lenses in some telescopes.
probablly not that important
The age of rocks and minerals that contain uranium and thorium, radioactive elements that emit helium nuclei called alpha particles, can be discovered by measuring the level of helium with a process known as helium dating.
not really a use of helium in the sense we are talking about here.
The high thermal conductivity and sound velocity of helium is also desirable in thermoacoustic
Re:Peak Everything (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:No more helium? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:No more helium? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Peak Everything (Score:5, Insightful)
The problem is the smartest people around think "technology" will fix the "resource" problem. Given unlimited energy and resources, perhaps this is true, but we don't live in a world where there are unlimited resources.
Sheesh. Every century seems to have people who think, "Yeah, the good times are rolling now, but judgment day is coming! Repent now!
Will there be problems in the future? Of course there will. But then "magically" something will come along to solve them. To use the cliche, "necessity is the mother of invention." Look around you. We have supercapacitors that are being invented because of concern about oil prices (by the way, we will NEVER run out of oil. NEVER. It will just get more expensive until something else replaces it). We can fire up nuclear plants (and breeder reactors) anytime we want (and really, really need to). We've just had an article the other day about new solid-state solar stirling engines, and another one about mass-production solar cells to reduce cost. Some of them will pan out, some of them won't. But it is absolutely true that civilization isn't going to collapse. In fact, civilization is, at most, going to be slightly inconvenienced. SUVs will always be available (thank God).
The solar system is FLOODED with energy. It really is effectively unlimited.
Re:This is a capitalist economy (Score:5, Insightful)
Natural gas producers throw it away because it costs more to make than you can sell it for. The only reason for that is the US used to pay $5/liter for it and sells it for $1/liter and no longer buys it. (I made up those numbers - they're just illustrative but reflect the problem.)
Assuming there is a decent amount left underground once the shortage becomes acute people will be willing to pay more for helium. Once the market value raises above the cost to produce it people who dig it up will stop throwing it away. At that part the market would regulate its own helium supply/demand.
There really aren't any externalities in this market that I can see (unlike with fossil fuels - where pollution/CO2 needs to be accounted for) - so there is no reason the market wouldn't work. The main reason it isn't working now is because somebody messed with the market for the last 50 years and it will take some time to correct...
Re:Time to ramp up fusion research (Score:2, Insightful)
Yeah, because the only thing fusion is good for is producing Helium.
Those $91000 isn't what it cost to produce four grams of helium. It's the cost to produce all the electricity from the energy given off by that reaction. Which is a lot. Which gets sold to people. The Helium production is a bonus. Instead of throwing it away, they get to sell it. How much they sell it by is a function of the supply and demand for helium, not the cost for manufacturer. If nobody was buying, they'd still be selling the electricity, and would be throwing the helium away.
Re:This is a capitalist economy (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:This is a capitalist economy (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Already use hydrogen for balloons (Score:3, Insightful)
In the name of science? Nah, take em outside and do it just for fun!!
Re:This is a capitalist economy (Score:3, Insightful)
The only reason for that is the US used to pay $5/liter for it and sells it for $1/liter and no longer buys it. . (I made up those numbers - they're just illustrative but reflect the problem.)
Thanks for making up numbers that much of your argument hinges on. To make a real argument about the affect of the US government on Helium prices you'd have to get REAL numbers, not ones you just made up.
Re:Peak Everything (Score:3, Insightful)
And what makes now different from 1798 (Malthus's "An Essay on the Principle of Population"), or 1968 (Erlich's "The Population Bomb") or 1974 (The Club of Rom's "Mankind at the Turning Point")?
What's the difference? The ecocide that's been going on for centuries, for starters. Also, VASTLY improved resource analysis and data, as well as the apparent peak of petroleum production.
All of those writers were correct. The timing was off, and certain technologies came into play as the petroleum age came along, but as we're going to blow through the remaining oil pretty quickly, the total amount of energy per capita will collapse. So, you'll see each of them in reverse order appear - first the Club of Rome's resource and ecological depletion which will put the constraint on Ehrlich's population bomb, followed by a Malthusian Die Off.
Easter Island. Look it up.
RS
Re:No more helium? (Score:4, Insightful)
Nmtoken can't contain whitespace. Turn in your nerd card.
Let me amend the summary a bit (Score:3, Insightful)
There, fixed it. Helium is available. We can extract it out of the air for anyone who needs it. However, the price they want to pay may not make it worthwhile to the supplier so we have fewer and fewer suppliers who can provide Helium and still stay in business.
Saying "something is running out" never seems to take price into consideration. Same issue with oil. There is PLENTY of oil on the earth. The question is: how valuable is it to you (the consumer) to extract and use it? I guaran-damn-tee you that if Helium sold for $5000/cu ft -- we'd have PLENTY of helium. And most likely, I'd be in the helium sales business tomorrow. That's how capitalism works. If demand is out of whack with supply, then the price goes up and more suppliers come online to provide that product. If supply is out of whack with demand, then prices go down and fewer and fewer suppliers stay in that business.
I see it something like:
1. Go to Soviet Russia
2. Find some old Koreans
3. ????
4. Profit!!!!!
See how easy it works?
Re:Peak Everything (Score:3, Insightful)
We may not run out of oil but we need to be prepaired if we do.
Re:This is a capitalist economy (Score:4, Insightful)
Not necessarily. This article concerns itself only with the national helium reserve. The fact that someone was buying the product created a significant portion of the market. That buyer quit, demand fell, prices fell, profits margins went away, so companies got out of the business of making the product. It doesn't matter if the government was paying $1/liter, $.10/liter, or $1 brazillion dollars per liter. Demand fell, prices went with it.
If there is money to be made, someone will make it. The article answers itself. There is a demand for the product, above and beyond party balloons, and that demand will be met.