Mars Asteroid Impact More Likely Than Before

sheldie writes "The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%" This is a follow-up to earlier coverage of this asteroid from last week.

Look at it this way...

[ToSeek]

As the Bad Astronomer notes [badastronomy.com], the odds of nothing happening have shrunk from 99% to 96%.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[blhack]

yes, there is. It is called the:

"not knowing the exact position, velocity, and mass of the object due to inadequate funding that has been, instead, spent on countless "beautification" projects around major cities uncertainty principal"

Good thing

[bytesex]

Well then, it's a good thing we're not living there yet, isn't it ?

Re:Versus Jupiter

[samkass]

I think it's worth noting that if it's this hard to predict whether a rock is going to hit a planet when there's confidence in the computational model but uncertainty in the observations, then it's absurd to talk about the climate in 2030-2100 when we have neither certainty that our models are accurate nor do we have very good data.

I disagree that that's worth noting. There is absolutely no doubt that the distance between this asteroid and Mars is going to continue to decline for awhile. That type of qualitative statement is much closer to making climate predictions. The analogy of whether it will hit is closer to making weather predictions for 2 decades out, which I agree is absurd.

Re:Wow

[Anonymous Coward]

That could happen! If Sir Richard Branson stopped bickering with his staff and launched a full-scale initiative to provide cheap flights to Mars.

Sadly, the name-calling will go on and we will never see the glories of Martian super-destruction.

What terrifies me about the potential impact

[Chris Tucker]

is the tons of utter bullshit that Richard Hoagland will then spew about all the fantastic discoveries revealed by the impact, proving that there was an advanced civilization on Mars, that NASA is suppressing.

Dear Jeebus, please let the asteroid hit the "Face On Mars" dead center, just to piss off that con artist Hoagland.

Thanks!