Mars Asteroid Impact More Likely Than Before

sheldie writes "The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%" This is a follow-up to earlier coverage of this asteroid from last week.

Taking All Bets

[Anonymous Coward]

Ok people, the likelihood has tripled!

Taking all bets at 1:25 odds now! Hurry before it becomes even more likely to hit! Lock in your bets early before the odds increase even more! I'll bet you wish you had jumped on those lucky bastards who will be paid out 1:75! Don't wait any longer!

Hey, who says nerds can't gamble?

This is going to decimate all life on Mars

[Anonymous Coward]

Decimate is the word of the day. See how many stories you can incorrectly apply it.

Wow

[snowraver1]

That would truly be an amazing event. The science that could be learned in the event of a collision would be massive! I, for one, welcome our planet smashing overlord!

Preview of news media coverage

[bwintx]

"BREAKING NEWS! [SFX: Ridiculously melodramatic sounder]

"NASA now says an asteroid impact on Mars is now three times more likely than previously thought.

"At this rate, the impact's likelihood will exceed 150% in just a few days."

Do your duty, people

[plover]

C'mon, people, it's our duty as annoying geeks to raise paranoia amongst our friends and family.

Tell them that if the asteroid just barely misses Mars that its gravitational pull could actually slingshot the rock straight towards earth! You just don't have to tell them what the chances of that are (astronomical would be an accurate value.)

Lets see how many people who failed math we can get to go hide in caves till it passes. :-)

Re:Versus Jupiter

[Anonymous Coward]

They're waiting to see whether or not John McEnroe will volley it back. If he whiffs it we'll still be in for one helluva show, so it's win/win as far as I'm concerned.

General Buck Turgeson Is On It, Sir!

[eldavojohn]

we can get to go hide in caves till it passes ...

My God! The rooskies could be working on the very same thing right now!

Mr. President, we must not allow a gravitationally slingshotted asteroid cave society gap!

Is that asteroid

[WormholeFiend]

from Klendathu? /Service guarantees citizenship //Would you like to know more?

Re:That's no astroid!

[Anonymous Coward]

I find your lack of original conversation disturbing.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[Tablizer]

The more it moves, however, the higher the precision of the measurements can be. So as time progresses, the astronomers will be able to reduce the circle of uncertainty.

"The data's in. Let's see, it's going to miss Mars, and on Dec. 31 hit the 3rd pla[NO CARRIER]
   

Re:This is going to decimate all life on Mars

[jombeewoof]

I would imagine 1/10 of the stories it will be used incorrectly on today.

Re:Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[AbsoluteXyro]

If 357,000 miles is "VERY VERY close" then I am practically inside Angelina Jolie's vagina, considering my proximity to her and what I assume you propose for varying degrees of closeness.

Vegas lines?

[Anonymous Coward]

I wonder what odds the bookies are offering for the meteor hitting one of the rovers.

Re:Wow

[Anonymous Coward]

I've experiments to be run. There is research to be done. On the planets who are still alive...

Re:Wow

[Anonymous Coward]

On Soviet Mars, planet smashes planet smashing overlord!

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[calebt3]

They said the rovers would only last a few months, too. We all see how badly they botched that timeline up.

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[Sponge Bath]

I doubt NASA would tell the rovers if there was a chance anyways.

Better to just allow the rover to see a shadow, look up, and emit:
0x68 0x6f 0x6c 0x79 0x20 0x63 0x72 0x61 0x70 0x21

Re:Versus Jupiter

[slashname3]

And you don't even mention Mars' version of Bruce Willis taking off in a flying saucer with a team of wild cat water drillers to plant nuclear weapons in the asteroid in an attempt to divert it from a direct strike on Mars. They have to factor in the possibility of that happening too.

But what about...

[martyb]

"The probability of asteroid 2007 WD5 impacting Mars has been revised [CC] following further observations. The chance of impact has increased from 1.3% to 3.9%"

But what about 2007 WD40 [wikipedia.org]? My bet is that one WILL slip past us! <grin>

Re:Wow

[Anonymous Coward]

You must be new here.

Re:Look at it this way...

[cplusplus]

Hey, I'm a "My glass is 3.9% full" kind of guy.

i know what will happen.

[xENoLocO]

The asteroid will bust through the surface crust, exposting Mars' nougatty, caramel-filled center.

Yummy.

Re:Helping the Asteroid...

[railman99]

"Of course this would probably cause an interstellar war with the Martians, but still..."

Nah, that war with the Martians ended 65 million years ago, when they blew up the home (5th) planet with their worm hole doomsday device, and both camps of survivors in space settled the only viable candidate planet in this Solar System, Earth. Yes, we are their descendants. LETS TRY REAL HARD NOT TO REPEAT THE SAME MISTAKE TWICE IN A ROW, PEOPLE!

Re:Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, close is a relative term. You see, the Earth is very, very big, so a distance of "only" 357,000 miles is very, very close when compared to the size of the Earth. Angelina Jolie, however, probably several hundred miles away from you, so when we calculate the relative distance, factoring in the size of your penis ... ;-)

Re:Large Object Also Heading For Earth

[ekgringo]

The best I get is that I can stare enviously at those biology jocks with all their hot undergrab lab assistants.

Freudian slip much?

Odds of astroid impact

[WalletBoy]

"Never tell me the odds!"

Re:The rovers

[Ardipithecus]

A calculation using Murphy's law suggests direct impact on Spirit with a sub-orbital bounce to Opportunity.

Re:Wow

[sm62704]

Wow, the slashdot crowd gets younger every year (and I'm so old I was a beta tester for dirt. We never did get all the bugs out).

Does nobody remember Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 [wikipedia.org] hitting Jupiter in 1994? Hell I even remember that and there was a catastrophe in my home town [wikipedia.org]... oh wait, no that was 1993. The comet hitting Jupiter was a year later.

But at any rate, we had a extinction-causing (if it would have happened on Earth) impact in less than the last fifteen years!

How many collisions do you guys need, anyway? Jees! Leave poor little Mars alone!

-mcgrew
A letter from Linda [slashdot.org]

Re:Preview of news media coverage

[SleptThroughClass]

One difference is that the atmospheric shock wave on Mars is expected to knock down many fewer trees than an impact on Earth would.

Re:Versus Jupiter

[sm62704]

A sig I saw here a few days ago fits that comment (im)perfectly: "I have measured my velcity with such exquisit perfection that I have no idea where I am".

Ok, so that applies to particles and not astronomy. Fuck up a perfectly good joke...

Re:Versus Jupiter

[AgentPaper]

Wrong unit of measure - the school bus is the accepted unit for items longer than a Beetle but smaller than a football field. 1/3 field = 1 bus = 3 Beetles. Alternately, 30 meters equals about 60% of the height of the Library of Congress' dome.

Figures aren't available on how many light bulbs it will power, though.

Murphy's Law Re:Taking All Bets

[Alien54]

Actually, Murphy's law says that not only will the asteroid miss Mars, it says that the asteroid miss will be precisely enough to whip the rock around to a new orbit. One precisely timed and angled to aim it towards Earth where it will impact on some particularly inconvenient location. Like the 2008 Olympics, the city of Jerusalem, or something else of political import.

A non-event of an event

[celtic_hackr]

Unfortunately, they don't tell you everything. Sure there's now a 1:25 chance of it striking Mars, but what they don't tell you is that there is 4:1 chance it'll strike somewhere on Mars' darkside. Only those lucky Saturnian Overlords will get a view of it, and we'll have to pay hefty fees for the copyrighted DRMed videos of the impact. And then only on low-def capable viewers. :'(

We should send some of our ELO defense missiles up there and shove a few more 'roids toward Mars. Hey, if we shoot enough at them maybe we can bust up the planet. Be some great fireworks then.

Oh sure, you say, well maybe one of those 'roids will get shoved the wrong way and wind up wiping out Washington state, but hey, there's no great loss there is there?