Riding the Failure Cascade

An anonymous reader writes "The Escapist has up an article looking at a curve that represents the dissolution of large social groups, like online guilds. Called the Failure Cascade, it's essentially a way of examining the dissociation of members of an organization predicated on a culture of success. They primarily explore this phenomenon using descriptions of EVE corporate alliances. 'These are the two forces at work in [an] alliance's failure cascade: the individual and the guild ... This happens because the failure cascade is the inverse of a network effect. Websites like MySpace define their value by the people that use the service just as guilds define their quality by their members. As bad events cause players to leave or become inactive, the quality drop leads others to do the same in a spiral that rarely stabilizes, until no one is left.'"

Pointless

[kaos07]

The article could be summarised as so:

People leave guilds.

More people leave guilds.

No one is left in guild.

Guild dies.

Re:Pointless

[grumpygrodyguy]

The article could be summarised as:

People leave guilds. -> More people leave guilds. -> No one is left in guild. -> Guild dies.

I dunno, this is actually pretty interesting. I think it's the first time I've heard of this subject being formally studied...and as a big MMOG player I can use information like this.

It would be nice to see others doing studies like these.

Microsoft's Failure Cascade

[DECS]

I feel so topical and current! I just wrote the same thing about Microsoft, detailing the spiral pattern affecting the company's entire consumer product lineup, from Zune to Windows to Office to Xbox to WinCE/Windows Mobile. Will the last person left please turn off the lights?

Soviet Microsoft: How Resistance to Free Markets and Open Ideas Will the Unravel the Software Superpower [roughlydrafted.com]

Somewhat ironically, one of the most financially successful capitalist companies of the 90s has positioned itself as a modern counterpart to the old communist Soviet Union. Microsoft's ideological contempt for and resistance to free markets and the open expression and propagation of fresh ideas and technologies is not only a close parallel of the old USSR, but also a clear reflection of why Microsoft is currently failing and why its troubles have only just begun. Here's a comprehensive look at why this is the case.

Political Parties

[Doc Ruby]

What happens when Republicans lose the White House in 2008? As a brand [rasmussenreports.com], Democrats didn't decline in popularity after their 2004 defeat (or after 2000). But Republicans did decline after their 2006 losses - though they'd started after their 2004 victories, and regained some shortly after the 2006 upsets. Maybe political parties act different.

Good math potential

[xPsi]

The mathematical study of this process could be potentially quite interesting, analogous to the study of critical points and phase transitions in statistical physics. By systematically studying the rise and decline of stable structures in online communities like guilds it could give some insight into a real life version of psychohistory. Indeed, these online groups are microcosms for the real world, but where certain parameters could be controlled and studied. Unfortunately, this article has nothing to do with that and simply seems to be a personal lament about how sometimes online guilds fall apart. It is a bummer for many-a-gamer, but not exactly groundbreaking stuff here.

Wikipedia?

[CowardX10]

I think Wikipedia is a prominent example of this. Assholes(deletionists) are driving away the people who made it great in the first place(content creators) with their elitism and petty power grabs. And now, Wikimedia is only able to achieve 1/4 of their fundraising goal [wikimedia.org] because a lot of the content creators were probably money contributors as well.

Congratulations asshole deletionists. You may finally achieve the ultimate deletion-the entire encyclopedia.

Re:Microsoft's Failure Cascade

[DECS]

The problem is that reality is biased against Microsoft as well.

Take your pic on the data you'd like to take issue with: slagging sales, stock market indifference, consumer market share in any product that has any competition, consumer perception, forward looking sales projections, historical inability to ship, outrageous inability to make money on any product not supported by a monopoly position.

And please, drop an occasional detail why you think I'm wrong. All this weak ad hominem criticism just makes me more likely to get sloppy. I really need the competition, just like Microsoft.

Apple TV Digital Disruption at Work: iTunes Takes 91% of Video Download Market [roughlydrafted.com]

This quarter's NPD report on video downloads flies in the face of claims made by certain analysts claiming to have the answers required to turn around the supposed "failure" of Apple TV. Echoing his earlier claims that iTunes faced a dire future, Forrester Research's James McQuivey recently took Apple TV to task, fretting that his guesstimate of sales didn't match his earlier sales prediction. Based on McQuivey's guesswork, Silicon Alley Insider's Dan Frommer offered suggestions for "fixing" it.
While it has become fashionable to mimic the complaints of others when talking about Apple TV, the more shocking reality is that the product is actually working as intended to strengthen Apple's plans for the digital disruption of television. Here's why.

Re:Political Parties

[Bill, Shooter of Bul]

I'd say that 2006 was a combination of the dislike for the republicans as a party and as individuals. Many of the incumbants that lost were voted in during the 94 republican revolution when they all said they wanted smaller government, less pork,more accountability and term limits. In 2006 these idiots record was one of bridges to nowhere, huge deficits, major ethical lapses, and never left office when they said they would. Also, people didn't much care for the Iraq war. Politicians are like diapers, you really should change them often. I wish they would have been able to get some term limits written into the law books. We'd be a better country without the 50 years of strom thrumand or 30+ of Ted Kennedy.

Re:Pointless

[ShieldW0lf]

There wasn't any substance in the Guilds either. The decision to stay or go is a triviality because it's nothing but mindless entertainment that achieves nothing. So, conclusions from this study wouldn't really mean anything anyways.

Kind of a waste of time if you ask me. Don't they have anything better to do? If they don't, their education was a waste of time.

Re:The cascading decline and DRM

[Anonymous Coward]

How does fewer people buying CDs lead to still fewer people buying CDs? No fan of the RIAA, I just think maybe you reached a little on this one.

Re:Political Parties

[Xonstantine]

In 2006 these idiots record was one of ...and never left office when they said they would

Some of them actually did leave office when they said they would, but you can't exactly vote THEM out of office now can you?

Re:Political Parties

[Darby]

Fascist? I don't think that word means what you think it means. Hyperbole much?

Actually, I know exactly what that word means, and there is no hyperbole whatsoever.

It's the merger of state and corporate power according to, you know, the guy who invented the freaking word.

So you might not think that it means what it means, but that's only your ignorance showing.

So, when we have a system where corporations write our laws and then bribe our representatives to pass them, then it's pretty hard, no impossible, to argue that this isn't fascism.

Heck, just spend a little bit of time researching the history and you'll see that we're the direct ideological descendants of the Nazis.

You know, don't you, that a huge chunk of American industrialists absofuckinglutely adored Hitler, right? You know Henry Ford received a medal from Hitler due to his militantly anti-Jew hate screeds, right? In fact Hitler credits him with helping him conceive the holocaust, right?

I mean damn, our current sitting President's grandfather was an avid supporter of Hitler *while we were at war with him* and barely avoided execution for treason over it. Add in the Republican party's 60 year all out war on anything remotely leftist leaving us with nothing but the extreme right, you know, fascism as their platform. You do know that extremist anti communism was the genesis of Nazism, right?

Then look at Bush's original cabinet. You do know who Wolfowitz got his PhD with, right? The primary proponent of Nazi philosophy, especially "the big lie".

Seriously, dude, when you know shit fuck all about a topic, you might consider just shutting the fuck up instead of demonstrating yourself to be an ignorant fool.

Re:Political Parties

[Darby]

No, it's "a governmental system led by a dictator having complete power, forcibly suppressing opposition and criticism, regimenting all industry, commerce, etc., and emphasizing an aggressive nationalism and often racism.".

No, it's not. I quoted the guy who invented the word describing what it meant. Your definition is meaningless.

If you think the Republican party is "extreme right", then you obviously aren't very good at thinking.

Wow, you're completely out of touch with reality.

You seem to have a real problem understanding the definitions of words. No wonder your posting AC. Anybody would be embarassed to be as ignorant as you prove yourself to be.

What do you think their constant screeching about anything with even a hint of leftism to it indicates?

So you are calling Wolfowitz, the Jew, a Nazi now? Is this your demonstration of your obviously superior (laugh) knowledge?

It's a matter of public record. You're welcome to look up who he studied with and what he studied. It's really sad how you retarded kids these days forget that the holocaust had nothing to do with us going to war against the nazis and that there were plenty of other groups in the camps as well as jews.

The simple fact about Wolfowitz is that he's a sociopath. He doesn't care who's methods he uses.

I love how you claim that since he's a jew he's magically immune from being a fascist scum. It doesn't work like that.