Running the Numbers on a US Pandemic

Lucas123 writes "A U.S. pandemic would exhaust antiviral medications, reduce basic food supplies, put ATMs out of service, shut down call centers, increase gas prices and up health insurance claims by 20%, according a test project developed by financial service firms. The pandemic paper planning scenario is used by 3,000 banks, insurance companies and security firms in preparing for disasters. The financial services groups are now sharing the pandemic flu exercise information, and all the scenarios are available for download."

Inevitable

[MeditationSensation]

Seems like this is inevitable. Already there are med-resistant staph infections in the news which are killing more people than AIDS does. Forget terrorism; the next big die off will be from a microscopic threat.

H5N1 has been a blessing...

[Pedrito]

Really, the fact that it kind of scared the crap out of people has been a good thing. It made everyone realize that we weren't even remotely prepared. The U.S. and other countries are starting to stockpile influenza antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza. This was something we've been needing to do for a while and the H5N1 scare has really kicked everyone into action.

Sadly, influenza epidemics are a given. It's not a matter of "if", but "when". There were 3 in the last century and they all happened before good antiviral drugs were available. Stockpiling these drugs could very well save hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives. The short-term economic cost of a pandemic would be huge, but it would seem trivial compared to the long-term cost of the loss of 5-10%, or more, of the population.

It's good we're testing these kinds of scenarios, but my biggest concern was the stockpiling and availability of antivirals which, fortunately, seems to be getting much better...

Re:What are you going to do???

[BWJones]

Fast zombies or slow zombies?

Bullets work on both kinds, right?

But what about WoW

[jconley]

The whole study comes into question for not using World of Warcraft as a modeling tool for pandemic.

Bah.

Re:Would we hear...

[spun]

I bet you don't have health insurance either, I mean, you aren't sick right now so why bother?

You know, sometimes when people warn you about potential dangers, they aren't just trying to alarm you, scam you or hijack the world back into some kind of pre-industrial state. Sometimes they are trying to do you a damn favor, idiot.

Re:H5N1 has been a blessing...

[joshv]

"Sadly, influenza epidemics are a given. It's not a matter of "if", but "when". There were 3 in the last century and they all happened before good antiviral drugs were available. Stockpiling these drugs could very well save hundreds of thousands, if not millions of lives. The short-term economic cost of a pandemic would be huge, but it would seem trivial compared to the long-term cost of the loss of 5-10%, or more, of the population."

Care to point me to any scientific evidence that Tamiflu, Relenza, or any other such drug in the pipeline will save a single person from a pandemic type flu virus?

No such evidence exists.

Even for non-pandemic strains, the evidence that vaccines and antivirals have had any impact of flu death rates is extremely thin.

Re:Are we that unhealthy already?

[YouTookMyStapler]

Personally, I think all this hype over a massive flu pandemic is nothing more than fear mongering and massive stupidity. Having drills for a flu outbreak? WTF? They hae been touting this crap for the last 2 years... and nothing.

If the U.S. really wanted to cut back the possibility of the spread of flu, the thing that needs to change is the corporate mentality of this country. That and some basic hygiene [wash your hands people and use a damn tissue].

Presenteeism is a major problem in the US. People come to work when they are sick and at worst, contagious, instead of staying home because they don't have any sick days or they cannot afford to miss a day of work, or worse yet, get fired if they don't come in.

If people could be more focused on getting better to be more productive, instead of worry about their job security if they call in sick, "that report just has to get done" or "the office can't function without me" attitude and coming into the workplace coughing and hacking on everyone and everything and making everyone else sick. Stay home, especially if you have a job dealing with the public [cashier, food handling, etc].

[rant]Also, if you are too sick to go to work, stay the fuck home and do not try to catch up on your errands... arrrrgghhh!!![/rant]

Re:What are you going to do???

[Seismologist]

What are you going to do when the zombies show up at your door?

You need to either chop off their heads or destroy the brain.

- Shaun of the Dead

Re:What are you going to do???

[cleatsupkeep]

You don't have to be faster than the zombie - you just have to be faster than your companions.

What is interesting

[WindBourne]

is that in past epidemics, living in cities was the LAST place to be. They always had the highest death rates due to the intermingling of ppl.

Now, the places to be will be the cities with high connectivity. It will be possible to minimize our interactions with others. Netgrocers would take off during these times. Likewise, this report says that call center would fail. Yet, I think that the call centers that are using voip and have the ability to allow their employees to work from home will do great. In addition, any work that can be done with little to no interactions with others will continue to thrive. Where the problems will come from are those jobs that require you to interact large number of ppl. What I think will be the big issues will be our schools.

I find it funny that they believe that an epidemic will originate in Africa. I would expect most to come from extremely populated areas.

Re:The Banking System Would be in Trouble? Oh Noes

[ScentCone]

We have to protect our banking system! We should definitely start some kind of a group that would be willing to donate food, medicines, educational supplies or potable water to the banking system. We can't let anything bad happen to them.

You know, sarcasm can be a really elegant tool, when it isn't used in the service of ignorance.

You think the economy would suck if a whole lot of people couldn't physically go to work or handle food? How much MORE do you think it would suck if everyone who was still participating in a wounded economy had to also drive around wheelbarrows of barter goods in order to get anything done? A well-oiled electronic banking system could well be one of the most important assets in preventing social collapse in the event of a particularly ugly pandemic. So, what will YOU be bartering? Copies of Ubuntu on cool purple DVDs? Your three extra pairs of clean socks? Your ability to dig out latrines? Hmmm. Many a modern economy is more convenient than a medieval one, and worth protecting. No banking system, no modern economy.

Actually... not really.

[Penguinisto]

The problems would likely be compounded:

• reserves of potable water would likely falter (and in places like, oh, Phoenix - fail entirely) due to now un-manned and un-maintained water treatment plants, which means you're stuck with either boiling what you can find, catch as much rain as is possible (outside of the US Pacific Northwest? Good Luck with that one), or hoping for the best when you draw it out of the well/stream/whatever.
• no problem - because there would be few to no oil refinery capabilities, which means that gas and plastics, etc. will be even rarer and more expensive than they are now.
• food will be short due to two reasons: one has to do with growing it (only a low two-digit percentage of a first world nation even does farming, and they rely on expensive and technological means to do it. The other is getting that food from point A (the farm) to point B (you) - without it getting contaminated with the pandemic nasty OR the current nasties that occupy unprocessed food now (salmonella, ptomaine, stuff like that).
• yep - the forests will do just fine. Now how are you going to get those far-off trees to your house to help heat the place... at least until 10/20/30 years from now when the closer ones finally start growing large enough to put to use?

• I'd prefer to keep technology around, thanks.

  /P

Re:What are you going to do???

[The One and Only]

Lagos is a growing supermetropolis. At current rates, it is expected to be the largest city in the world by mid-century.

I had 1 dollar on Monday, 2 dollars on Tuesday, 4 dollars yesterday, and 8 dollars today. At current rates, I'm expected to be the richest man in the world by mid-December. (Hint: some rates are unsustainable, especially without the infrastructure for sanitation and public health.)