Running the Numbers on a US Pandemic

Lucas123 writes "A U.S. pandemic would exhaust antiviral medications, reduce basic food supplies, put ATMs out of service, shut down call centers, increase gas prices and up health insurance claims by 20%, according a test project developed by financial service firms. The pandemic paper planning scenario is used by 3,000 banks, insurance companies and security firms in preparing for disasters. The financial services groups are now sharing the pandemic flu exercise information, and all the scenarios are available for download."

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What a bunch of BS

[SiliconEntity]

The last flu pandemic was the Hong Kong flu 1969. It didn't exactly bring the end of the world. There were no effects like what are described here.

Everyone hears "flu pandemic" and they think 1918, which was the worst in history. But there have been pandemics since then and they haven't been that bad. Just cause it's a pandemic doesn't mean it's the worst pandemic in history. That's like thinking that every recession is going to be the Great Depression.

That's not true

[Lucas123]

Webster's defines a pandemic as something "occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population" So defining an area for a pandemic isn't by definition wrong.

Re:What are you going to do???

[Anonymous Coward]

Haven't you played Quake? You obviously need a rocket launcher to turn them into pieces quickly. Otherwise they'll just keep throwing flesh at you.

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Re:H5N1 has been a blessing...

[Pedrito]

Care to point me to any scientific evidence that Tamiflu, Relenza, or any other such drug in the pipeline will save a single person from a pandemic type flu virus?

Sure, because I have nothing better to do with my time than do the research you clearly haven't done yourself.

First of all, Tamiflu has been shown to not only reduce the duration and severity of flu symptoms, but used as a prophylactic, reduces the chances of catching the flu by 74%. Here are some facts to back that up: Go here [nih.gov] and enter these PMIDs: 17535069, 17253479, 17115954.

There's tons more out there and anyone willing to get off their butt and do the research can find it. Now granted, there haven't been any large scale trials with H5N1 in people because not that many people have had H5N1. That said, combination therapies in mice with H5N1 have proven quite effective. There's no guarantee it will work in people, but all the evidence suggests that H5N1 is susceptible to neuraminidase inhibitors like Tamiflu will be effective against H5N1. It won't be 100%, but based on the existing data, I suspect it will have a pretty significant impact.

Now, I've done some of your legwork for you. How about you back up this statement: "Even for non-pandemic strains, the evidence that vaccines and antivirals have had any impact of flu death rates is extremely thin." with some evidence of your own.

Re:What a bunch of BS

[FrenchSilk]

That is because the 1969 flu (the Hong Kong flu [wikipedia.org]) was not very lethal at all. In the US, 50 million were infected, with an estimated 33,000 deaths, which is a mortality rate of 0.06%. By comparison, H5N1 (the current bird flu) has a mortality rate of about 60%, more than 1000 times as lethal as the Hong Kong flu. It may become less lethal as it becomes more transmissible, but it has a very long ways to go before it becomes as harmless as the Hong Kong flu.

Re:H5N1 has been a blessing...

[Vornzog]

Care to point me to any scientific evidence that Tamiflu, Relenza, or any other such drug in the pipeline will save a single person from a pandemic type flu virus?

Sure. Search Google Scholar with "TamiFlu H5N1". The first link on the results page takes you to an article by Roche scientists, http://jac.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/55/suppl_1/i5.pdf [oxfordjournals.org]. They have a financial interest in TamiFlu, so don't just take their word for it - feel free to read the all 95 of the references. Flu antivirals are well characterized, and mutations that cause resistance are well understood. There have been plenty of animal studies, and multiple case studies in humans. For further reading about those case studies, try http://content.nejm.org/cgi/reprint/353/25/2667.pdf [nejm.org]. That article has additional discussion about the possibility of mutations during the current recommended treatment course.

Even for non-pandemic strains, the evidence that vaccines and antivirals have had any impact of flu death rates is extremely thin.

Antivirals are currently being used to decrease morbidity and mortality caused by influenza. There is good statistical evidence, confirmed by multiple independent studies, that these work as advertised. And plenty of discussion about when they fail.

No such evidence exists.

Served.

Bush got the powers in 2006

[Thrustworthy]

The Pentagon is looking at the possibility of using federal troops to enforce a quarantine in the event of an outbreak of pandemic bird flu in the United States, a senior official said on Wednesday.

President George W. Bush said last week he would consider using the military to "effect a quarantine" in response to any outbreak of avian influenza, but provided few details.

Bush at the time also suggested he might place National Guard troops, normally commanded by state governors, under federal control as part of the government's response to the "catastrophe" of such a flu pandemic.

Paul McHale, assistant defense secretary for homeland defense, said quarantine law historically has been under the primary jurisdiction of states, not the federal government.

"And my expectation is that any quarantine measures that would be put in place would likely involve a substantial employment of the National Guard, probably under command and control of the governor of an affected state," McHale told a group of reporters.

"However, we are looking at a wide range of contingencies, potentially involving Title 10 forces (federal troops) if a pandemic outbreak of a biological threat were to occur," McHale added.

The H5N1 avian influenza virus has killed or forced the destruction of tens of millions of birds and infected more than 100 people, killing at least 60 in four Asian nations since late 2003.

Experts fear that the virus, known to pass to humans from birds, could mutate and start to spread easily from person to person, potentially killing millions worldwide. Experts have questioned America's preparedness.

McHale said he believed there would be a clearer understanding within a few weeks of the military role in response to pandemic bird flu as part of a broader federal response. Pentagon officials were meeting on Wednesday to discuss the department's role in a flu pandemic.

One issue that could face the U.S. government in the event of an outbreak is whether or how to cordon off parts of the country to prevent the disease from spreading.

The Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, enacted during the post-Civil War reconstruction period, prohibits federal military personnel from taking part in law-enforcement within the United States. But a president can waive the law in an emergency.