Crime Reduction Linked To Lead-Free Gasoline 616
Hugh Pickens writes "Even low levels of lead can cause brain damage, increasing the likelihood of behavioral and cognitive traits such as impulsivity, aggressiveness, and low IQ that are strongly linked with criminal behavior. The NYTimes has a story on how the phasing out of leaded gasoline starting with the Clean Air Act in 1973 may have led to a 56% drop in violent crime in the US in the 1990s. An economics professor at Amherst College, Jessica Wolpaw Reyes, discovered the connection and wrote a paper comparing the reduction of lead from gasoline between states (PDF) and the reduction of violent crime. She constructed a table linking crime rates in every state to childhood lead exposure in that state 20 or 30 years earlier. If lead poisoning is a factor in the development of criminal behavior, then countries that didn't switch to unleaded fuel until the 1980s, like Britain and Australia, should soon see a dip in crime as the last lead-damaged children outgrow their most violent years."
RTFP! (Score:5, Informative)
Re:ARRRR! (Score:4, Informative)
That has been attributed to the increase in shipping and the decrease in patrols by the US, UK and the USSR.
Re:Prison Population (Score:5, Informative)
Since 1992, approximately six million Americans have been arrested on marijuana charges, a greater number than the entire populations of Alaska, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming combined. Annual marijuana arrests have more than doubled in that time.
Re:Lead free gasoline? (Score:4, Informative)
Say wha? (Score:4, Informative)
Re:correlation, causation and all that? (Score:5, Informative)
"Lead has also been associated directly with delinquent, criminal, and aggressive behavior. Denno [1990] finds that lead poisoning is the most significant predictor of disciplinary problems and one of the most significant predictors of delinquency, adult criminality, and the number and severity of offenses. Needleman et al. [1996] find a significant relationship between the amount of lead in bone (a good measure of past exposure) and antisocial, delinquent, and aggressive behaviors. Dietrich et al. [2001] followed a cohort of 195 inner-city youths from birth through adolescence, and found a clear linear relationship between childhood blood lead levels and the number of delinquent acts. In addition, Needleman et al [2002] showed that adjudicated delinquents were four times as likely to have high lead levels than non-delinquents, and several studies have shown that violent criminals exhibit higher levels of lead in their bodies than nonviolent criminals or the general population.25"
It seems to me that this environmental hypothesis is testable (and confirmed) far beyond what is attainable for most theories in the social sciences.
One that does survive regression analysis: (Score:5, Informative)
One that was done piecemeal (so regression analysis could be performed) and which produced a strong signal under such analysis: Allowing law-abiding citizens to carry concealed weapons for self-protection against criminals. This drastically lowers the overall violent crime and injury/death rates (even if you DO count any crooks shot in self-defense as a "victim").
Interestingly, while many thought it might produce a short bloodbath (until criminals got the message that some of their victims might be armed), that didn't happen. Instead the violent crime rate just dropped, as criminals moved to less-armed areas, switched from muggings, armed robberies, carjackings, "hot" (occupied-dwelling) burglaries, to things like burglarizing UNoccupied homes and stores, or just found legal work. Rapes dropped like a rock, too (though they went up somewhat in nearby areas that hadn't yet liberalized their own laws.)
Turns out the crooks weren't SO stupid that they couldn't see the writing on that wall. And even those who didn't get the message right away usually weren't dumb enough to keep attacking, rather than run away, when they found themselves looking at the wrong end of a pistol.
(When Florida changed to non-discretionary CCW (i.e. the license has to be granted if the applicant jumps through the correct hoops and doesn't have a criminal record), one gang switched to hitting tourist in rental cars, on the assumption they'd be unarmed - both by airport regs and lack of a permit. Florida fixed that by removing the requirement that rental cars have distinctive markings/licenses and by issuing concealed carry permits to tourists. B-) Interestingly, even during the peak of the rob-the-Florida-tourists boom a tourist had less chance of being robbed in Florida than in California.)
Re:Knife slices both ways (Score:3, Informative)
Pot and kettle and all that...
Re:Saw the Same Thing With Abortion (Score:4, Informative)
That was the original point. Don't believe me, go read the writings of Ms. Sanger, the founder of Planned Parenthood. She was pretty open about her notions of Eugenics and eliminating the unfit and the 'inferior breeds' from the genepool. Amazing that Jesse Jackson and AL Sharpton never have any problems with supporting politicians who support Planned Parenthood and abortion since such a high percentage of the aborted are 'their'[1] people and that this WAS (even if they won't say it in public anymore) the stated purpose behind the founding of the organization.
[1] According to both the 'Reverends' and the MSM they are the Official spokesmen for all people of African descent in the US, whether the actual people want them as their leaders or not.
Lead levels in rome were already looked at. (Score:5, Informative)
They already were.
Body loads of lead were very high in the later periods - especially among the upper, decision-making, classes. To the point that lead was believed to have been the major cause of a lack of fertility among the upper classes and the decline of those families.
Turns out it wasn't the lead plumbing - where the lead pretty much stayed in the pipes. They had figured out that if you put a lead liner in wine bottles the wine stayed sweet as it aged, rather than turning sour. But that's not because it DOESN'T turn to vinegar - instead the vinegar (acetic acid) reacts with the lead to form lead acetate - which is so sweet it's also called "sugar of lead". And it's REALLY well absorbed by the body.
Re:Lead (Score:5, Informative)
I briefly read the study and she does take age into account. She uses crime rates (not absolute numbers) and finds a correlation between lead exposure in youth and crime rates at age 22 (peak crime age) using FBI data. The rates for those who grew up before leaded gas exposure were flat and rise in synch with leaded gas usage/exposure. She also points out that rates dropped the most in those states that had the greatest lead exposures.
I'd cut and paste the text but Adobe isn't cooperating.
Re:What else happened in 1973? (Score:2, Informative)
Re:Lead (Score:2, Informative)
This reaches a new low of silliness! When leaded gasoline was supreme, millions of cars spewed lead particles into the atmosphere all around people for them to breathe in, and that is what made lead so widespread in humans. The danger from lead paint on toys is that the child will put the toy in his mouth and chew on it, releasing some lead into his system. Lead paint on toys does not emit lead vapors into the atmosphere in any great amount.
Leaded gasoline poisons everyone. Lead in paint poisons the owner of the painted object, not everyone.