Extraterrestrials Probably Haven't Found Us - Yet

kasparn writes "The Guardian today has a story about the Danish astrophysicist Rasmus Bjoerk, who recently conducted simulations on how long it will take to colonize the Milky Way. The basic idea is to send out probes in different directions (including various heights above the galactic plane). He estimates that it will take some 10 billion years to explore 4 % of the Milky Way. Since the age of the Universe is of the same order, his conclusion is that aliens can't have had time required to find us yet."

I should hope so...

[__aaclcg7560]

We will be in a lot of trouble if the Cylons find us first.

The Galactic Lottery

[neo]

Come on. 4% is a hell of a lot better than your odds of winning the lottery and that happens *everyday*.

Plus he's not taking into account multiple alien races. So that's like double 4% which is almost 8%. Do that a few hundred times and you get 108%. This guy clearly doesn't understand math.

Wrong

[TheWoozle]

I need to introduce this guy to my next-door neighbor...

I once worked out

[Anonymous Coward]

Traveling at the speed of light, it would take a quarter million years to reach Andromeda. What's more is that if I went into statis now, the compound interest on my savings would pay for the journey.

Re:Duh

[Gropo]

u'd wait until you had the technology to make self-replicating probes, and the galaxy could potentially be explored in thousands of years.

Yes, and let's hope beyond all hope that once the probes arrive they don't require vast amounts of O and/or H2O to replicate themselves. And that they'll recognize Sol 3 as a planet fostering 'advanced' life.

Re:How close minded can one be?

[Rurouni_Jaden]

"If an alien race has had advanced technology for 100,000,000 Trillion years, then they'd have plenty of time (and would probably have technology more advanced then sending out physical "probes")."

when they show up, please ask them how they survived the big bang.

Re:Heh

[pbrammer]

They want all of our "base"?

Self replicating probes?!?

[SeePage87]

Terrible idea. The Sylandro had one of them, and look what almost happened! Never trust a Melnorme.

Re:That's assuming...

[BadERA]

Wow, it's almost as though you're quoting from my post that already existed at the time you hit reply ...

http://science.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=217598 &cid=17668728 [slashdot.org]

*scratching head*

Re:Duh

[myowntrueself]

You can't explore a galaxy with a handful of probes. 72 probes???
Not impressed by this guy's argument.

He is probably just assuming that the aliens have a pretty much exact parallel to NASA.

Re:Based on poor assumptions

[BadERA]

Psssh, enough of that hippie dudley do-right love and flowers attitude, that will get you nowhere in this life.

(That said, I totally agree with you.)

Scary

[SpeedyGonz]

72 probes??? First of all, if you're going to do it that way, you'd create hundreds of thousands of probes, if not millions of probes (mass production would reduce the cost). Second, you still probably wouldn't do it that way. You'd wait until you had the technology to make self-replicating probes, and the galaxy could potentially be explored in thousands of years.

Hmm . . .

1.- self replicating probes... check
2.- enuff "intelligence" to determine something it sees/feels/etc is an actual lifeform... check
3.- humanity's own history making buggy, security lax software... check
4.- throw in some polymorphic stuff in the software so the probe can better itself...check
5.- an "easter egg", timebomb prank from a bender-obsessed hacker (MUST KILL HUMANS)... check

Possible end result? == The cylons :)

Re:Duh

[turnipsatemybaby]

Geez, that's a terrible idea! Last time anyone did that, a bumbling race grab a hold of one and reprogrammed it to replicate as its top priority over everything else! The result was that the probes were finding other races and then breaking them down into their component compounds with their lightning thingies!

Re:The Galactic Lottery

[dmd]

And this guy clearly doesn't understand humor.

Re:Duh

[flyingsquid]

You're right, this guy hasn't thought things through.

Negative. I find your argument untenable. I am in agreement with the Danish monkey-being. Probabilities of non-human life spreading through the Galaxy and discovering primitive monkey-beings in Sol System are minimal. Probability is on the same order of probability of a F'narthag slime-weasel evolving wings and taking flight. It is also highly improbable that extraterrestrial beings would colonize the pathetic planet Earth and blend into the primitive monkey-being society. They would be forced to hide in internet discussion groups and the tech sector so that they are mistaken for geeks when they display lack of monkey-being social skills.

Just reported...

[grumpyman]

Come on, they haven't visited us yet? There were yet another case of alien abduction as reported by the World's Weekly last week.

Re:Duh

[lucifig]

Well Darth Vader found Hoth with fewer probes than that and it only took him like 4 minutes.

So I guess you are both wrong.

Eat at Earth

[Dareth]

We are currently broadcasting the galactic equivalent of "Eat at Earth" sign. Remember we consume "lesser" lifeforms for food. I do love a good steak! Who knows if the aliens who find Earth will consider us as equals or as appetizers.

I am sure their galactic physicians will recommend they don't eat too many humans from the Northwestern Continent due to cholesterol or something, but that they can eat all the yellow humans from the east they want, even if they will be hungry again in a few parsecs.

Self replicating probles will doom us ...

[AHumbleOpinion]

I'd hold off on criticizing others for a lack of imagination. Don't you realize that self replicating probes will doom us? We will be galactic spammers, the aliens will wipe us out as a nuisance. Or our probes will harvest the planet they pray towards, the aliens will wipe us out as heretics and blasphemers. At a very minimum the probes will be crossing the border without proper documentation, the fines and impound fees could leave us in "debtors prison" for millennia.

Re:That's assuming...

[hjo3]

"photon-based probing methods"

You mean looking at stuff through a telescope?

Re:The Galactic Lottery

[Sloppy]

It was 4, again.

Re:I should hope so...

[bigmauler]

just change the article to "hot Cylon poon hasn't found us yet."

Re:Heh

[navyjeff]

Looks like you should have taken a look at the article first.

Thanks for the summary. You must be new here.

Probe Droid?

[CohibaVancouver]

I can just imagine the conversation in the ET's 'mission control' -

I think we've got something, sir. The report is only a fragment from a probe droid in the sol system, but it's the best lead we've had.

We have thousands of probe droids searching the galaxy. I want proof, not leads!

The visuals indicate life readings.

It could mean anything. If we followed every lead...

But, sir, the sol system is supposed to be devoid of humaoid forms.

That's it. The humans are there.

There are so many uncharted worlds...

That is the system! Set your course for the sol system. General, prepare your men!

Eventually these probes came home

[blueZ3]

We've seen this in STTM... V'ger came home and destroyed the sending race in a futile attempt to contact the "creator."

Face it, we're not going to meet aliens, because they've already been destroyed by their own creations.

Re:Eat at Earth - Wonderful solution.

[Anonymous Coward]

This would be great. Life would suddenly have a meaning. We would not die in vain, but actually keep a superior race well fed, and at the same time I assume this superior race would be bright enough to regulate the world population for optimal living quality. I just hope they like a their food steaked or cooked. I`m not very much into being eaten alive.

SURVEY

[russ1337]

I reckon theres a Slashdot survey on the best way to explore:

How would you prefer to travel?

a. A blue Police Box that can traverse space and time, with a hot British former 'teen star' that is obviously in love with your weirdness.
b. A big ancient ring that can take you anywhere where there is a corresponding ancient ring, but you keep bumping into Egyption dog people who try to kill you.
c. A large dinner shaped spaceship that does warp factors, but you get to shoot at klingons and make sexy time with green chicks (remember its all about the Journey!) Just dont get assimilated by Bjork!
d. Travelling with the Robinson family and a stupid robot that shouts "Danger" long after it stopped being funny. Oh and a pedophile.
e. In a ship that can make the Kessel Run in less than twelve parsecs - With a great big hairy Wooky and a gay robot.
e. Spending time on the only ship to have survived an attack by robots with KITT in their face, where it is a daily battle to stay alive.
f. On a moon that was flung out of orbit by a massive thermonuclear explosion initiated by the build up of magnetic radiation, which there is much debate as to it being caused by global warming.
g. Traveling across universes with a guy that looks like Mike Moore, where each new universe you 'slide' into is exactly like being on LSD.
h. On a ship with a dorky hologram an evolved cat, a computer with an IQ of 6000 and a very stupid robot, but every day is hilarious!
I. The space shuttle. (yawn)

Re:Heh

[speculatrix]

this just in, 1000 telephone sanitizers landed at Kennedy Space Port.

Re:How close minded can one be?

[corbettw]

If an alien race has had advanced technology for 100,000,000 Trillion years...

Holy shit, Tom Cruise posts on Slashdot!

Re:Eat at Earth

[arth1]

I think parsecs are measurements of distance, but still +1 funny if I had mod points

Unless these alieens are doing the Kessel Run, of course.

Regards,
--
*Art

Re:SURVEY

[FirstTimeCaller]

I'm sorry, I didn't read past your first option. Where do I sign up?

What context?!

[illeism]

...Aliens have not visited earth or manipulated genes in some way.

Average weight of humans up... sounds like and interstellar Hansel and Gretal

Re:Based on poor assumptions

[StikyPad]

Nanoscale or even microscale probes would completely change the economics of space exploration. And they would avoid the very serious problem of atomic abrasion that occurs at and above 0.1c. That's why I laugh when people spot human-sized UFO craft.

That's why *I* laugh when people think we haven't solved the issue of atomic abrasion. Teflon was named after our home planet, after all. Ha ha ha...

Puny human!

Re:SURVEY

[CptPicard]

You're missing a really important option... the ship with the psychotic computer that tries to kill you by locking you out so that you won't interfere with the success of the mission..