Predicting Space Weather

eldavojohn writes "Recently, a new discovery has been made explaining how & predicting when space weather occurs. Hopefully this will allow us to predict when and where these extreme forces of magnetic flux occur so that we can prepare to repair satellites or shut them down for safety reasons. Recent activities on the sun have surprised scientists including the explosive "solar tsunami" that happened last week. From the article, "The new study shows that the Northern Lights, also called aurora, and other space weather near Earth are driven by the rate at which the Earth's and Sun's magnetic fields connect, or merge, and not just by the solar wind's electric field. The merging occurs way out in space, at a spot between the Earth and Sun, roughly 40,000 miles above our planet's surface. Researchers have now developed a formula that describes the merging rate of the magnetic field lines and accurately predicts 10 different types of near-Earth space weather activity, such as the aurora and magnetic disturbances.""

Wasting resources?

[bogaboga]

Instead of "wasting" time and resources in space issues, I suggest we spend some time exploring the depths of the sea. We know less than 2% of what lies under there! Maybe we can grab new medicines or even fuel to use as some form of energy. Heck the bottoms of the seas are nearer.

Re:why this is so hard

[uab21]

But of course, the tranmission and the particles are traveling at the speed of light so the transmission doesn't get there in time

Actually the particles are not travelling that fast, see http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarstorm_s peed_040614.html [space.com] which states

Potentially disruptive solar storms can't reach Earth in less than half a day, scientists have determined

So there should be time.

You avoid lightning by looking at clouds.

[ScentCone]

But of course, the tranmission and the particles are traveling at the speed of light so the transmission doesn't get there in time

You can't outrun lightning on the golf course, either. But you can check the radar before you book a tee-time. I suppose the point is that there are some indicators of when we will have some fast-as-light (or very-fast-particles) crap coming our way - based on other behaviors - and that, like predicting earthquakes (another thing you can't outrun), we can still take a few precautions when things look a little dodgy.

Re:And the universe begins to look more electric

[pln2bz]

I don't have a citation, but it's not really the facts that are in dispute. It's the interpretation ...

http://www.thunderbolts.info/tpod/2005/arch05/0511 09dustmars.htm [thunderbolts.info]:

There is also another aspect to the interplanetary circuitry affecting Mars. The greatest storm on Mars (2001) occurred when the planet was nearing perihelion and was the closest it had been to Earth in about 12 years. At that time it was also being "tickled" by the Earth's plasma sheath, or magnetosphere, establishing a temporary electrical connection between Earth and Mars for the transfer of charge. It seems that Mars responded with an outburst of atmospheric discharges, these taking the form of monstrous dust devils--or more accurately, electrical tornadoes.

At the same time the electric currents flowing in the Martian ionosphere will drive the high-speed winds in the upper atmosphere.

In the two Martian dust storm images above, it appears that the dust is being jetted upwards rather than being blown along the surface. This is explicable in the electric tornado model and explains how dust is raised efficiently many kilometers into the thin air and suspended for a time electrostatically. The role of violent vortices on the leading edge of dust storms is particularly clear in the image we've placed here. Closer examination should show that these tornadoes form preferentially on high points and the sharp edges of craters or escarpments.

Even though charged particles fill space and even though the electric force is the strongest force in the universe, we're told that currents cannot be moving through space to an extent that they actually *do* anything.

Re:um ya

[Ungrounded Lightning]

Why cant they just send them up there with the proper shielding in the first place?

Because (in addition to the weight issue) proper shielding for solar mass ejection events makes damage from cosmic radiation FAR WORSE. The small number of horrendous-energy particles, absent shielding, mainly pass through tissue causing litte damage. But run them through a "shield" and each kicks out a storm of lower (but still high) energy charged particles that are going slow enough to each cause a LOT of interactions in tissue.

To shield against cosmics you need a mountain (though an atmosphere does an OK job). So it's normally better to keep spacecraft walls thin and let them shine through. But that leaves you unshielded against coronal mass ejections.

So when the sun kicks up you shelter, and accept the temporary increase in exposure to secondary cosmic radiation to avoid the massive increase in exposure to a solar storm. Out of the bonfire, into the hot tub.

But you want to BE in the hot tub when the bonfire starts, rather than be out on a spacewalk or up to your ears in some half-assembled space-station project. Thus the importance of prediction.