A Flu Pandemic? 830
Pedrito writes "Scientific American is running a story in this month's issue about preparing for a flu pandemic. What this article tries to convey is that a pandemic is definitely coming. Whether it's from the H5N1 strain (which would likely cause hundreds of millions of deaths) or another strain a few years down the road. There have been 3 other flu pandemics in the past 100 years. The 1918 strain being the worst, with 40 million killed. The reason H5N1 is being followed so closely is because it's already spread to people and because it's incredibly lethal (a roughly 50% fatality rate at th moment). Even if the fatality rate dropped to 5% when and if it mutates into an easily communicable form, it would be twice as deadly as the 1918 virus."
Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Causing Panic (Score:5, Insightful)
I can see the same panic buying of the drugs that can help just like the panic buying of gas masks which happened when someone said that terrorists would use bio/chem weaps.
More people means... (Score:1, Insightful)
still waiting (Score:5, Insightful)
Latest fad (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
absolutely no reason why it won't come up with another variant as communicable and as lethal as the 1918 variant. If it does, the experts tell us that nothing modern medicine has come up with will help a whole lot. Basically it will infect everyone and kill a proportion and then the rest of us will be immune. Unless we can find a treatment that blocks, or ameliorates all varants of the influenza virus at once, or a way to mass produce a new vaccine in weeks rather than years, then we are still wide open to whatever mutation comes along.
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Whilst this sort of thing has happened before saying it's definitely going to mutate is an overstatement.
Hardly - influenza viruses display both antigenic shift and drift: they are gentically one of the more unstable family of viruses. It is inevitable that H5N1 will mutate. What is debatable is whether it will mutate to a form where it is more infectious to a human host, or maybe some other (e.g. porcine).
Whilst sensationalist journalism is never good, it is important not to sideline flu - there will be a pandemic sometime in the near future, maybe not with H5N1, but we are 'due for one'.
Human Death Fetish (Score:5, Insightful)
So far, fewer than 150 people worldwide have been infected with HN51. Many of those people were old and poor, and didn't have regular access to modern medical treatment. Estimating a human mortality rate from these cases is virtually impossible.
It's one thing to say that a flu pandemic is inevitable. But then, so are earthquakes, volcano eruptions, giant asteroids, and the heat death of the universe....
About those numbers... (Score:5, Insightful)
Because we can only report mortality of cases which we actually see, health officials are already biased towards observing the most severe forms of the disease. With something like, say, HIV, or ebola, it might be safe to say that all reported cases = ALL cases. But with something like a strain of the flu, which people suffer to varying degrees, I'd guess there's some much larger number of cases that are simply never seen in hospitals.
it would change the pharmaceutical industry (Score:3, Insightful)
This is in sharp contrast to the pharmaceutical research done in other countries that are more interested in finding real cures.
Re:Causing Panic (Score:2, Insightful)
The public on the other hand is far more worried about gays getting married, or terrorists attacking them in rural Kansas.
I'd say the press is doing a very good job keeping people worried about whatever the politicians want them to worry about, distracting them from any real problems.
Anyone on
Are you paying attention? (Score:4, Insightful)
Its no exaggeration to say this is the most significant threat we have faced in decade - orders of magnitude more important than a few terrorists. Yet there still is a sleepwalking feel to people's reaction.
So how are you prepared?
It seems somewhat overstated right now. (Score:2, Insightful)
Highly lethal viruses (Score:5, Insightful)
A 5% fatal virus will leave 95% of those infected to act as carriers - and because of the low fatality rate, some percentage of those won't realize that they're sick and will take it on planes, etc. without being diagnosed.
50% may be wayyyy too high (Score:5, Insightful)
The 1957 influenza epidemic (Score:5, Insightful)
What made a difference was the incredible advances in medicine between the epidemics.
As for the avian influenza, there is little indication that the virus is being spread between humans and no indication that it spreads easily between humans. If and when the virus mutates and that becomes possible, the mutation may also change the severity of the resulting illness.
Prepare for the worst and be thankful for the best.
Re:concern? (Score:4, Insightful)
It's impossible to answer this because as yet there is no pandemic. All of these stories boil down to speculation that the earth is due another flu pandemic because: (a) they have happened several times before; and (b) we haven't had one for a long time. People are fixating on bird flu simply because it has made the jump from birds to humans. And of course it seems to be coming from the far east and that is where SARS seems to have originated. In broad terms, the press is lazy and uninformed - sickness stories that have far east angle have more currency at the moment, so you hear more about them.
The seriousness of any pandemic will depend on how deadly the strain is and how readily it can jump from human to human. At the moment, H5N1 can't be transmitted from human to human. In order to be able to, it will have to mutate - what we don't know is how dangerous the mutation will be and how easily/quickly we can manufacture a vaccine. I would suggest that there is not much you can do about it, so don't worry too much. One thing that is fairly certain is that the healthier you are in general, the less vulnerable you are likely to be. Of course that's true of any illness, not just flu!
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Did you RTFA? It says: "Scientists cannot predict which influenza strain will cause a pandemic or when the next one will break out. They can warn only that another is bound to come and that the conditions now seem ripe."
Maybe the bird flu is "the big one". Maybe it isn't. Even if it isn't, we should use the opportunity of its media ubiquity to figure out what we will done when the next big flu does hit. When, not if (unless there is a surprising development in medicine!).
It'll be a sad state of affairs when this happens. (Score:4, Insightful)
I wholeheartedly applaud governments that step in and invalidate such patents under these circumstances so that they can procure and administer the treatment to their people as they see fit. However, I still find it unfortunate that only the wealthier governments can do this (look at AIDS and Africa). The poorer governments still need to rely on complying with the treaties to the letter or risk becoming even poorer. Even then, not all governments, regardless of wealth, will do this.
I am, of course, specifically talking about the good ol' US of A. When this killer flu arrives in the US, we all know the government isn't going to step in like some of the Asian governments. So what'll end up happening is that the poor and needy who have no health care are completely devastated because they can't afford the treatment or the insurance to pay for the treatment, while the wealthy survive unscathed because they can afford to. And that's really what's most sad--that the wealthiest nation in the world isn't charitable enough to care for its own people. Public welfare be damned, so long as the pharmaceuticals can make back their research money.
As for those screaming that the patent holder will likely license the patent for making generics in such an event, I have two things to say:
1) Licensing takes care of supply, but still doesn't address the cost issue for low-income, medically uninsured people.
2) The way diseases can so quickly spread, by the time anyone recognizes the gravity of the situation, it'll be likely to be too little, too late. Again, supply will go up moderately, but demand will skyrocket.
Re:Discovery Channel (Score:1, Insightful)
Re:Causing Panic (Score:3, Insightful)
There are many valid reasons to be worried about H5N1, but at least here in Europe some people get quite hysteric about it (heard of people calling the cops because they found a dead bird in their garden). In the US it might be a different story, especially since the "threat" isn't as direct...
We might face a pandemic, but it could also be another topic like anthrax - something we smile about afterwards. Who knows.
Re:concern? (Score:3, Insightful)
That is absolutely wrong. People who know will tell you that bird flu kills those with healthy immune systems far easier than those with weak immune systems.
Re:Factors in our favor (Score:2, Insightful)
Believe me, vitamin deficiency, malnutrition, lices, bedbugs, lack of "warm bedrooms" and simple medicines and even "hot soapy showers" are probably much more common in the world than you think.
Re:Don't worry- Intelligent Design will Save us! (Score:1, Insightful)
Thats like saying Bush wants to die in Iraqi gunfights because he believes the war in Iraq is right.
Re:it would change the pharmaceutical industry (Score:3, Insightful)
OK, I'll bite. How about providing three examples of pharamaceutical research into cures being done in other countries for which there is no equivalent effort in the US?
What about the real flu? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:8 click-through pages?! (Score:2, Insightful)
You mis-spelt scam
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Some may look back and say "the odds of going THIS LONG without a hit are incredibly low" which is true, but you are factoring known events that have already happened into your odds, and that's just wrong. If it has already happened (or not happened) then the odds of that past outcome are 100% since we know what occurred. So those results don't have any effect on the odds of something happening tomorrow.
So we are no more "due" for a major outbreak this year than we were last year. OVERdue maybe, but not due.
There's is a reason (Score:5, Insightful)
- The point of a virus is not killing its host, but making copies of it self.
- The lethality of H5N1 is a bad secondary effect.
- If a new mutant kills its host to quickly, it'll run out of hosts and wont replicate anymore.
Example :
- If one catch a new über-mortal flu
- brings it home
- infect familiy member
- the über-mortal flu kills very quickly and the whole family drops dead the same evening
- The virus will be "stuck" and won't be able to infect anyone else.
-> That's one of the reason we didn't see a Ebola pandemia
But, if it is a slower virus,
and the people survive at least a few couple of weeks (or don't die at all),
they will have plenty of time to go to work the next days, and transmit the flu to all co-workers, etc...
The kind of pandemia you see in movies, when some (hibernating/comating patient wakes up / austronaute lands / whatever else) and see everyone dead is not very likely.
The danger will be if a flu virus like H5N1 can both cross infect birds, but is almost harmless to them, and humans, and is highly lethal, then there's some chance of such a "everyone drops suddenly dead" scenario.
To put it in more Slashdot-friendly terms :
Imagine an internet worm.
If the worm crashes Windows immediatly after infecting the PC, even before having time to replicate and send copies to the whole Outlook addresse book,there's no way it could become widespread.
A few PC will crashes and that's the whole story.
But if the virus, silently installs backdoors/trojans/spywares and silently begins replicating, THEN you'll have a lot of infected boxen.
Re:Yes twice as deadly... but... perspective (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Factors in our favor (Score:5, Insightful)
* As a whole, people do not get as sick as in previous generations. The constant fuss over cleanliness reduces the general health of the immune system because of its lack of exposure to many diseases.
* Vitamin deficiencies are not as rare as one might think; while scurvy is no longer common, most people in the civilized world consume processed foods, which generally lack vital nutrients. As such, their body mass is maintained or expanded, but the gains made in nutritional science have not, as a whole, trickled down very far into the general population.
* Palliative diseases are of little use against a virus that causes tissue death in the lungs, encephalitis, and destruction of tissue membranes due to necrosis and apoptosis. H5N1 appears to cause a broad-spectrum attack on the human body in ways that aren't helped by rehydration or salt balance.
* The vast majority of people may live in their own bedrooms, but are more likely to congregate in large, relatively cramped areas for work, school (especially school!), and purchasing. The rise of mass transit means that especially in urban areas, people are crammed together for long periods of time sharing the same air. For instance, in Tokyo, one person could infect sixty to a hundred people on the ride to the Akihabara district with one sneeze. Same in New York on the A, 4/5/6, 1/2, or 7 lines.
Furthermore, many more people live in apartments with central ventilation. One infectious person can thus infect dozens, even hundreds, of people with whom he has no direct contact.
* International and cross-continental travel is much more common, leading to the possibility of faster spread. If the virus has a long presymptomatic infectious period, one overnight flight from China could lead to an infection that spreads through half of San Francisco and hopscotches to New York within a matter of days, catching public health authorities off guard.
* A virus that spreads via aerosolized particles isn't as susceptible to sanitary conditions as many other diseases. It helps, but isn't as useful in preventative care as you suggest.
Re:still waiting (Score:2, Insightful)
West Nile virus was never a danger to people with healthy, strong immune systems. Big deal for the sick, very young and elderly, shrug of the shoulders for everybody else.
Killer bees have done a huge amount of damage and don't appear to be easing up.
Ebola is so damn lethal that it doesn't spread very far.
I don't know anything about monkey pox.
An avian flu variant that learns how to jump from human to human? We don't have the first goddamn clue on how to deal with that. Vaccines can't be developed until after the strain goes active and current antivirals are drugs of 'hope', in that you 'hope' they do anything at all.
It hasn't happened, so don't worry about it, but be glad that public health officials are shitting thier pants over it, it might help stop you from shitting your pants later.
Re:Human Death Fetish (Score:4, Insightful)
Poor people? 40% of the population in Africa (south of sahara) and southern Asia lives below the poverty line. (that's 1 dollar a day).
Care to wager how many people that is in all? Hint - Asia has 4 billion people alone.
What kind of impact would that have do you think? And people don't just die from the flu - if 50% of an area dies from a disease, who's going to clean up the area? In poor regions? That'll lead to massive outbreaks of other diseases, breakdown of all kinds of other stuff (like say - food production). That in turn will lead to even MORE people dying.
Southern asia is probably one of the main providers of cheap labor for western companies
* running for the hills (ie neighbouring countries)
* giving up in dispair
* trying to get their local areas self sufficient in food (as the ones that'd be bringing in stuff died)
Running for the hills could easily lead to border skirmishes and full fledged wars, as could the need for resources that the neighbouring countries won't supply.
Etc, etc, etc.
Just cause it's only poor people doesn't mean it won't affect you or anyone else.
Re:it would change the pharmaceutical industry (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:It'll be a sad state of affairs when this happe (Score:4, Insightful)
As one of those researchers, I've got to ask -- given that Taiwan is already breaking the Tamiflu patent, what makes you think my bosses are insane enough to invest that research money when the product is going to be confiscated?
Geniuses like you have already brought the development of new AIDS treatments to a near halt. Personally, I think this flu hysteria is nonsense anyway, but stopping the drug pipeline to grab the not-very-good drugs on the market right now seems counterproductive to me. Anyway, we'll go make our money elsewhere, and you'd better hope any future treatments can be produced out of Creative Commons drum 'n' bass tracks...
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:2, Insightful)
Unless you are one of the VERY rare prostitues in Africa that are immune to AIDS, it has a ~100% fatality rate. Plus it kills millions a year RIGHT NOW.
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:3, Insightful)
The common cold/flu kills around 40,000 americans (that's the stat I saw, don't know about world-wide) each year, but SARS with a handful of deaths globally got BIG press. Now this practically non-existant bird flu gets everyone all worked up.
I'll worry when there's a few thousand deaths. Until then, eat healthy food, exercise and keep that immune system running. If you're not one of the typical flu victims (elderly, very young or compromised immune system from other causes), you'll have an excellent chance to shrug it off, even if it does spread.
See http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101805_
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Also, life has a 100% fatality rate.
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
Mutation of the flu virus into something seriously dangerous, like the 1918 variety, certainly qualifies as a Poisson process [wolfram.com]. The time between events in the Poisson distribution [wolfram.com] follows an Exponential distribution [wolfram.com]. The exponential distribution is "memoryless" [wolfram.com], that is, the probability that an event will occur in the first n years of a time interval is the same as the probability that, after any number of years in which an event has not occured, an event will occur in the next n years.
Shortly, the fact that we haven't had a flu epidemic recently has absolutely no bearing on whether or not one is coming soon. Even more shortly, we are not 'due for one'. This is known as the gambler's fallacy.
Why I refuse to even worry about this (Score:2, Insightful)
Looking at some facts, there is a number of good reasons not to worry about this.
* Until today, only about 100 people died from H5N1
* they were all in contact with birds
* the virus doesn't spread from human to human (yes, it may sometime, but then again it may not - who knows)
* even if you get the virus, you have a good chance of surviving
* concerning the spanish flu: it killed something below 50 mio people worldwide. This is a lot, but with a total population of 2 billions, it also means that more than 97.5% survived
* we got a lot more knowlege about hygiene and biology now
* our body's own immune system is quite sophisticated and very strong against viri - after all it went through a million years of evolutionary development. At least it was good enough for our parents to survive long enough and have children, and also for our 4 grandparents, our 8 grand-grandparents and our $REALBIGNUM other ancestors.
* the media likes to keep us scared, so we keep watching. don't trust them
* the corporate world also likes to keep us scared, so we keep buying their crap. don't trust them either
* don't forget, some companies make real big money from selling medecine to imaginary threats (and I'm not only talking about viri here - think about how many "psychological disorders" that didn't even have a name a decade ago now can be cured with $fancydrug)
And if all else isn't good enough, there is still the top reason for not worring ever at all:
* Yes, we are all going to die someday, but when the time has come, overhasty worries won't save you, or even help you just a little bit. In fact, since death is inevitable, it might be much better to spend the time beeing with something useful, instead of beeing scared all the time.
Of course not worrying doesn't mean not taking precautions, when there is a valid reason for concern, but "valid concern" certainly doesn't apply here. If you're going to panic, please consider looking about ten posts down at an article that says something about Climate Warming.
Re:concern? (Score:3, Insightful)
That merely highlights how much american doctors over-prescribe anti-biotics. A lot of disease is viral (meaning that antibiotics don't help), and your body can take care of most diseases by itself anyway
Re:So why is Tamiflu withdrawn from customers? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:Discovery Channel (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:5, Insightful)
If you're talking about a slot machine then, yes, you have the same odds every time. If you're talking about an event that, by its occurence, affects the odds of its recurrence within a period of time, then talking about being "due" is entirely appropriate. All evidence indicates that flu outbreaks are such events.
It's like looking at the weight on a pressure cooker. If steam hasn't come out in a while, you can say that it's "due" to come out soon.
You can argue that pandemics don't *have* to occur, but until we can go at least a few generations without having one, I'd say you'd be wrong.
Re:Human Death Fetish (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:So why is Tamiflu withdrawn from customers? (Score:5, Insightful)
I'm quite surprised at some of the posters here laughing about a flu pandemic. I know it's popular to go for the +5 Funny moderation, but the knee jerk reaction of a scaremongering media isn't always correct. It would be wise to recheck some of your basic assumptions. Many posters have expressed their lack of concern, believing that their "strong immune systems" will save them. This is precisely the problem with H5N1 - it turns your own immune system against you (re: cytokine storm).
If you believe that the government program to stockpile Tamiflu will save you, think again. From what I have read, Bush plans to distribute supplies of vaccine and antiviral drugs to the elderly as a priority. I guess they must be a strong voting block.
A few weeks ago I was visiting Canada, and had a chance to watch one of their national television interview shows. I forget the name but it was approximately "One to one" - where a (famous?) reporter interviews an expert on a currently hot topic in the news. The topic happened to be bird flu, and the expert interviewed was, IIRC, a top MD working at high levels of the government within the health care bureaus. Of course he was also really a PR guy and seemed famous also for giving 10,000 interviews a year. Anyways.. he said he personally had a supply of Tamiflu for himself and his family! When asked, "Is that because you are a medical professional and will be dealing with people who are sick and doing research on the virus... or because you think it is just common sense for anyone to do this to be careful?" - he replied, "A bit of both." Not the exact quotes of course and I am writing this while very tired... but if anyone wants me to dig out a transcript or the exact name and air date of the show I can easily do so. To make matters more interesting, the next day on the news I saw that Canada was totally restricting the sale of Tamiflu!
Now before anyone jumps on me for being a totally insane, dogmatic, selfish troll - I agree the government has a huge role to play, and it is important that people who are really sick do manage to get Tamiflu. If everyone were to stockpile it beforehand, there would be quite a shortage. But... it is very nice to be forward thinking and preparing for these events on the individual basis. After all, what is best for the entire society during an outbreak might not be best for you individually. As for resistance - yes - please don't abuse the drug and take it unless it is certain that you have no other options. We are already beginning to lose the war with antibiotics as they have been so overprescribed, let's not do the same with our new antivirals.
All in all - play it smart, educate yourself, and learn the true risks. I'm much more worried about influenza compared to terrorist attack. There is always the group that will follow the crowd in hysterics, and go overboard to protect themselves. But that doesn't mean they are *always* wrong. There is also the group which seeks to protect itself because it is the right course of action.
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:3, Insightful)
Agreed. Ditto for West Nile. Media made a huge to-do about it a few years back, but for the most part, the only people it ever claimed were the very young and very old: in other words, those that pnumonia probably would have gotten as well. It was usually in the web news or newspapers where the victims' ages would be listed, the TV and radio hardly ever mentioned the ages of the victims because they wanted to generate a stir, causing everyone to think, "wow, that could have been me!"
Case in point: my sister in law had been sick for the better part of a week. Headache, coughing, slight nausea. She's one part each of hygiene freak and worry wart. She went to the doctor to find out what was wrong and the doctor said, "You have the West Nile virus." She turned pale. The doc resumed, "Take some Nyquil tonight, keep up on the vitamins, and you should be fine in a few days."
Now, this is a family who believes everything they see on TV, especially if it's on the news. She had a lot of fun phoning up relatives and telling them that she had West Nile. (Hell, wouldn't you?) Almost everyone she talked to hesitated and/or stuttered when she did that. Comical, yes, but it goes to show how much power the media has when exaggerating the deadliness of, well, damn near everything. I expect no different of this new flu "pandemic".
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:1, Insightful)
See http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/101805_
Ok you want to get really paranoid?
http://www.rense.com/general20/mic.htm [rense.com]
Re:concern? (Score:3, Insightful)
The way he put it was this: viruses don't evolve suddenly. They evolve over time. It won't abruptly be the mega-super-lethal virus from hell. It has to get there in stages. First it has to get into humans. Then it has to learn to move from human to human. Then it has to learn to do that WELL.
It is, apparently, very unusual for a highly lethal virus to become widespread. This happened in WW1, but that was largely because of the trenches. The virus was able to communicate itself from a downed soldier, and that was the key to it being so intensely virulent. It was, very possibly, the only time in modern history that that many people have been together in conditions that poor.
In other words, dying soldiers could still transmit the virus, so killing the host wasn't a evolutionary dead end.
In our modern world, with our intense awareness of bird flu, if it stays highly lethal, it will never be widespread. We will bring enormous resources to bear on isolating any such patients. If the virulence drops to something approaching a normal flu, it could become widespread... we might not notice it until it was too late. But it would probably never kill very many people.
Remember, the reaction of humans to the virus is also a selection process, and we will select very, VERY strongly against highly lethal strains.
Smallpox is extremely lethal and contagious. Smallpox no longer exists in the wild. That should tell you something.
Re:Offtopic?!? Hey Mods, B-O-O-K that spells book! (Score:5, Insightful)
Being literate does not assume that one only reads great works. It is just as important to be aware of highly influential works, and as the most eminent horror -and possibly the most popular American - writer of the late-twentieth century, it is important for a literate individual to be aware of King's major works simply so that one is able to comprehend King's influence on other writers, as well as the influence other writers have had on King.
That said, not all of Steven King's books are long-winded, profane, oversexed retellings of campfire stories. Books like Carrie, The Shining, and probably a few other King novels will long be remembered as American classics, and as for all of the crappy books, well, nobody was forced to buy them.
Re:There's is a reason (Score:3, Insightful)
Everyone in the media thought it would be HUGE and nasty, when in fact it was rather mild because of decent controls and quarantines.
The bad thing about the flu though, is that most people are used to it. (I haven't gotten a flu shot since I was a wee lad because it is just the flu, it won't kill you) So they won't react with ugency when reporting symptoms.
Re:Sensationalist Journalism? (Score:3, Insightful)
One reason for cyclical epidemics is that new generations are not immune from the last time. Once the number of immune individuals drops below a certain amount then an epidemic can proceed. This is the reason why not everyone has to be immunised against measles to stop an epidemic.
Flu Pandemic - What To Do (no, really) (Score:4, Insightful)
1. H5N1 is not a pandemic virus. The scary thing is a mutation of H5N1. Forget about the statistical wrangling over 50%. The morbidity (deatharifficness) of the human cases is based on small numbers, and a human-to-human strain could have different characteristics in any case. Just accept that the current concern is real and that random computer programmers do not "know better".
2. PLEASE don't try and buy up Tamiflu. You don't know what to do with it, you don't know how to diagnose flu properly and it's needed elsewhere. If you think you, or someone else has something which you think should be treated with Tamiflu GET TO A FRICKING HOSPITAL. If it's the correct treatment they will have it.
3. IMPORTANT: If you are "at risk" of initial infection of H5N1 (professional chicken-kisser etc etc) or you are a high-risk flu group (old, asthma, child etc) then GET A FLU JAB for seasonal influenza.
Note: This will not do anything to stop you getting H5N1 (sorry), although it may (unproven) help you survive. The idea is that if you don't get "normal" flu in the first place then there is less chance of you getting H5N1 _at the same time_, which could result in in-cell reassortment (genetic mutation) of the virus. In other words, H5N1 could cross with whatever flu you got to make a new flu. That could then result in you being patient zero for the killer-flu we're all scared of. (which would suck)
4. If you want to be ultra-paranoid, you could postpone non-essential travel to, eg, SE Asia or put off your "All Eastern Europe Cockfighting" tour. Your call.
5. Frankly, for the majority here I doubt that there is anything in particular you should be doing differently right now. BUT just keep a weather eye on the news - if ever the pandemic hits then these recommendations will instantly be out the window and people will be talking about masks, quarantine and emergency plans.
The sky is NOT currently falling. It is fair odds that unless you happen to indulge in "the love that dare not speak its name" with poultry or enjoy fresh duck's blood soup then there's not much you can do - the sky will fall or it won't. However, the reason health agencies are making a lot of noise is that _were_ the sky to fall, right now, global preparedness is not as good as it could be.
Thanks.
Re:Legitimate concern? (Score:3, Insightful)
Someone asked for a couple of worst-case scenarios, and an "expert" provided them. They handed it to the people who would be first affected. It's an alarming read, as most worst-case scenarios are. So far, what you're telling me is facts about the panic, not about the disease.
The fact that the administrators of a town of 40,000 people are preparing for the lack of school age children and tax income tells me they are pretty unsophisticated. This sounds like something they tell the local press, so they look like they are doing their jobs. I'd ask them what they would do if bored anarchist kids and the economically disadvantaged start setting fire to cars in the dead of night, something a little more likely.
The fact that a bunch of hospitals have received emergency training, and have been alarmed by it, is not necessarily significant. Did they receive similar materials in light of SARS and West Nile? How about a dirty bomb or chemical weapons attack? Earthquake? Asteroid? They're all scary, and they're all "possible."
If the top 100 epidemiologists in the world came out and said: "This strain of flu can be easily spread between humans, has a 50% mortality rate, and has no vaccine or treatment" then I would be concerned, but telling me your nurse is shocked because she's been told to read a manual about how they are going to run out of storage space for the bodies, well, that's not scientifically relevant. Even if she is a healthcare provider.
Re:Offtopic?!? Hey Mods, B-O-O-K that spells book! (Score:2, Insightful)