Japan's 20-Year Plan for Space

rwven writes "Japan has just released information on their new space plan which will take them through the year 2025. Included in their plan are robots and nanotechnology for moon surveys as well as an eventual hydrogen powered mach-5 capable plane, a mach-2 capable passenger airliner and a manned mission to the moon. They will consider missions to mars and other planets after 2025. Space.com is also carrying this story."

Re:Wish We Had A Plan

[ThreeE]

To say we don't have a plan is pretty ignorant. Go look at http://exploration.nasa.gov/ [nasa.gov] and you'll see it in great detail. I think what you mean to say is that you don't agree with it -- so say that instead. And going to Mars is a very small, far off part of that plan.

Finally, most of your six points are part of that plan -- except for the maglift sci-fi you propose.

Respectfully, it looks like you have some reading to do.

Re:Cooperation

[CSMastermind]

I'm willing to say it will lead to less cooperation....well maybe some at the start of things. I'm reminded of the age of exploration in the Americas. I think it will lead to some cooperation in the inital exploration phase, but once someone gets a coloney down or a mining facility up, it'll be no holds barred imperialism again.

Re:hondaship

[LWATCDR]

Actually Goddard;s first rocket was front drive :)

Re:20 years!?

[ThreeE]

Huh? The last recession ended in 7/2003 http://www.nber.org/cycles/july2003.html [nber.org] and certainly didn't last six year... Check your facts and get back with us.

Re:Ummm...

[Reignking]

They launch rockets from Tanegashima Island, Japan's answer to Cape Canaveral [businessweek.com]...

Re:Outsourcing

[Auckerman]

"Perhaps it would be best if we were to convince the Japanese that they should take over the stewardship of the Hubble Space Telescope and the Voyager Probe, both of which are now slated for abandonment by the Bush administration"

You are incorrect. The current congress/adminstration has specifically budgeted money for Hubble to remain in use and it is NASA that is not spending that money and cancelling Hubble.

Re:Wow.

[MBGMorden]

It's not really limited to higher class or that much time. You can get your PPL in as little as 40 hours (though that's rare. I'd plan for around 60) and an older Cessna 150 or 152 can be had for around $18,000. If you're willing to build a kit airplane you can have a very high performance brand-new aircraft for as little as $10k for some models, with darn-nice models (like the Mustang II or Zodiac 601XL) coming in at around $25-35k to build. That's cheap but it's not exactly higher class either.

What seems to keep most people out of the air is that they're downright terrified of flying. My family completely flipped out when I told them I'd be taking pilot's lessons, and no ammount of statistics would convince them that GA is safe. To them they truly belive that flying a private plane is a question of when you crash and die, not if. Most of the general public seem to share in this ignorance. Oh well. Their loss :).

Re:Lowered cost?

[_ph1ux_]

"Cost reductions will only happen if there is significant competition from cost consious buyers"

Yeah? Tell that to the oil industry....

Re:Catapults vs. aircraft

[Rei]

Some *real* space launch systems (not low delta-V joyrides like SS1) actually do get launched from aircraft - Pegasus, for example. The problem is that once you get over a certain size (a size that the shuttle is far, far beyond), you need to scale aircraft to sizes that we haven't even approached. Carrying an empty shuttle is nothing like carrying a filled shuttle with an external tank.

Also, there's the issue of "what type of carry"? Carrying on the underbelly may seem attractive, but it requires a custom-designed plane with a huge degree of ground clearance - it's not a nice shape to work with. There can be problems on deployment as well. A basic tow-launch system seems attractive (minimal aircraft modifications), until you consider the landing gear and structural penalties needed for supporting the weight of the fuel during takeoff. A better option is either tow to altitude and then fuel from the towing craft (fuelling lines attached the whole time), or take off with minimal fuel and dock like a fighter. One additional effectively demonstrated method is to stow your spacecraft inside the body of the aircraft, and then launch it out the back with a drouge chute to maintain stability. While this gives clear size constraints, it requires almost no aircraft modifications, no extra drag during ascent, it can be pre-fueled, and it doesn't have significant landing gear/structural penalties.

Re:Wow.

[Flendon]

Actually according to their FAQ it is 4 years till they have a FAA certified model. That is a concern for those of us here in the USA. And the ones they build before that are listed as being marketing demonstrators, special sales, and military applications. Then don't forget price:In limited production (500 units per year) the M400 Skycar will sell for a price comparable to that of a four-passenger high performance helicopter or airplane, approximately $500,000. As the volume of production increases substantially, its price can approach that of a quality automobile ($60,000-$80,000).

That $60K-80K pricetag will still be 10+ years off. Again (at least in the USA) you still have to wonder how will the FAA regulate them? Currently: This means that, yes, you will require a "powered-lift normal" category pilot's license to operate a Skycar. Can I drive from home to work or do I have to go from airport to airport? The closest to my house and work are both about 15 miles. At its ground speed of 30-35 thats a bit of a drive. When will my job get with the 21st century and put in an aircar landing zone? What about insurance?

As so many others have pointed out you also have bad/drunk pilots and malfunctions to worry about. If I remember the PopSci article on this model it doesn't glide well at all so emergency landings are tricky. Lets check the FAQ again: the system can be maneuvered to a suitable site to deploy the parachutes. Parachutes?? I've always wanted to try parachuting, but skydiving was more what I had in mind thank you.

Don't get me wrong I appreciate what this company is doing for us and look forward to the day when I get out of the I95 jam on the way into DC. But if you think two years is even close to any reasonable market penetartion please pass whatever your smoking.