Asteroid To Be Naked-Eye Visible In 2029

An anonymous reader writes "SPACE.com is reporting that asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly so close to Earth in 2029 that it'll be visible to the naked eye. Other than barely-visible Vesta, this is a first. And 2004 MN4 will be about magnitude 3.3 -- like a dim but easily visible star. A moving star in this case. You might remember 2004 MN4 is the one that sparked worry, in December, that it would hit Earth. No worries, NASA says, just a once-in-a-millennium sky show."

I Always Wonder...

[md10md]

how they can predict that closely 24 years in advance. There's got to be some margin of error.

Re:Excellent Chance to Test Anti-Asteroid Technolo

[xstonedogx]

We had better test these ideas on a safe asteroid instead of waiting for the day when an asteroid aimed at earth actually arrives.

I have a differing opinion on what constitutes a safe asteroid. A mistake on this asteroid could potentially be just as devistating as a mistake on one destined to collide with us.

I'd rather poke a few asteroids that don't come within 22,600 miles of Earth.

Re:Should we believe them?

[CaptainCarrot]

Are you kidding? If an asteroid really was going to collide with the Earth in 24 years to you honestly think NASA would pass up a funding opportunity like that? The adminstrators (and aerospace contractors) would all be doing their Happy Dance o' Money like they haven't done since the Apollo program.

Re:So

[pcmanjon]

"If it passes within the orbits of geosynchronous satellites, what's the chance of it striking one of them? If it does, might it lose enough momentum to enter earth orbit?"

I don't think so, imagine a car hitting a shopping cart full of grocerys at 50MPH. The car's not going to go off it's path much (unless driver swerves to avoid basket)

24 years from now....

[solariax]

I don't know about you folks, but I don't intend to let another full generation pass before we have basic things in place like a viable off-world colony and the ability to protect ourselves from the occasional ancient space-pebble.... I mean, come on. This will be a fun show but it's another sign from nature.....like aurora, meteor showers, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunami, the very tides themselves....that the Universe is a very dynamic place and we had damned well better be ready for unexpected, occasionally violent change in the 'world as we know it.' Right now the Bush-driven NASA agenda for the Moon and Mars has us just barely managing to get first boots-on-dirt/regolith by this timeframe (2029-2030) and exactly how often has NASA been on schedule with manned objectives in the past two decades or so (no offense my friends, I support your work 100%)??? As for the core objectives of humanity as opposed to politicians, achieving the lion's share of those goals seems mostly like to come from good ol' "private enterprise" in all its bizarre and wonderful forms. I would imagine that Burt Rutan has a few thoughts on these things....

Re:Almost a quarter of a century?

[drxray]

Rocket exhaust only has a nozzle speed of a few km/s, so to lose ~10 km/s you need to use considereably more than an asteroid-mass of rocket fuel. (I think the technical term is a "motherfuckload".)

So, unless we put a nuclear powered railgun (or maybe souped-up ion engine) on it and use bits of asteroid as reaction mass we aren't going to be capturing it. That tech will probably still be sci-fi in a couple of decades, sadly.