Asteroid To Be Naked-Eye Visible In 2029

An anonymous reader writes "SPACE.com is reporting that asteroid 2004 MN4 will fly so close to Earth in 2029 that it'll be visible to the naked eye. Other than barely-visible Vesta, this is a first. And 2004 MN4 will be about magnitude 3.3 -- like a dim but easily visible star. A moving star in this case. You might remember 2004 MN4 is the one that sparked worry, in December, that it would hit Earth. No worries, NASA says, just a once-in-a-millennium sky show."

First... duh

[larry2k]

The following table lists potential future Earth impact events http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html

Re:I Always Wonder...

[pjt33]

They've been tracking it for a while, and NASA has some pretty good quadrature software for numerical solutions to the N-body problem. I don't see any particularly precise figures in the summary anyway, and I'm not going to read the article, am I?

Re:There will be other stuff to watch...

[Anonymous Coward]

Sorry to be a grammar Nazi, but don't you mean serious astronomy? "Serious astrology" is an oxymoron if ever there was one.

Re:There will be other stuff to watch...

[pv2b]

[It] will make you think seriously about more serious astrology (you'd be surprised how much can be done with under $1000 of equipment!)

Astrology? Or astronomy? There's a difference you know.

Re:I Always Wonder...

[CanSpice]

Go look at this JPL press release [nasa.gov]. See the white line in the closeup view? That's the error on the position. If that white line intersected Earth, then there would be some probability that this asteroid would strike us.

They can predict these things through hundreds of observations from observers around the world. Through mathematical modelling they can calculate what the orbit is going to be. As more observations come in and as the forecast time comes closer the errors go down.

Re:Now?

[susano_otter]

It's certainly the first new asteroid of its kind. Probably the first asteroid we'll actually notice, entering our field of view. The first for which there will be a recorded "before" and "after". In other words, "sure, there's Vesta, but this is still first enough to be interesting".

As for near misses? Well, they aren't actually hits.

Re:What about the satelites?

[TigerNut]

The GPS constellation orbits at about 20,000 km altitude, so they'll definitely be safe. The geosynchronous comsats are more vulnerable, but that's only significant if the asteroid were to approach in the equatorial plane. Since the equatorial plane is inclined about 23 degrees to the ecliptic, it's unlikely in the extreme that it would be able to hit a geosynchronous satellite.