The Coming Atlantic Mega-Tsunami

rbrander writes "It's not news at all that scientists predict an eventual "mega-tsunami" that will sweep across the Atlantic that will still be anything from 60 to 150 ft high when it hits the U.S. Eastern seaboard. This Old News, however, suddenly seems fresh. Like an asteroid hit, it could be millenia away, or tomorrow, that a volcano in the Canary Islands just off Africa drops half a trillion tons of rock into the Atlantic. A short description of the problem from BBC News and some more graphic descriptions (of up to 100 million dead) and shrewd commentary on the politics of warning from journalist Gwynne Dyer."

100 million?

[PhysicsGenius]

There's only 300 million people in the US altogether. No way are 1/3 of them located within a couple kilometers of the East Coast. (Sure it hits non-US locations but also keep in mind that the death rate isn't 100% either.)

day after tomorrow

[PureCreditor]

after seeing the images and videos of the waves rushing with no warning into Asian shores, all of a sudden the pictures from "Day After Tomorrow" become vivid of what might happen to New York City if a tsunami created from the center of the Atlantic arrive in the US eastern seaboard.

What if......

[FXSTD]

Now that everyones attention is on natural disasters rather than terrorism, let us take this opportunity to combine them....
Could a terrorist set off a bomb large enough to trigger the slide? Seems like this would be an easier target and do more damage than any nuke a typical terrorist could make.

Re:Wikipedia

[Altus]

one has to wonder if we could defuse the problem by putting that mass in the water now, in a controlled manner. couldnt we start blowing off chunks of the island now and minimize the impact of any possible eruption?

clearly you would have to be very careful and the cost would be very high, but if everyone is certain that this mega tsunami is going to happen wouldnt it make sense to spend the money up front rather than on disaster relief?

This would be the greatest weapon ever.

[scorp1us]

Imagine a terrorist organization that detonates a bomb in the fissure. It is the stuff movies are made about. (Indecentlally if you are a movie maker you can buy that idea off me) You'd nail every country you hate and then some. But the problem is it only works once, so it is not good for terrorism per se.

The solution is the same as the problem. I would fracture the land mass and incrementally slide it in to the ocean. Several planned tsunamis are better than one big unplanned one.

I do not know if it is possible, but with that death toll and desvistation, it looks like we should get some geologists down there to see if it can't be done. It is resy though, you don't want to trigger the whole thing. Perhaps, it could be divided horizontally to remove the downward stress, rather than splitting slices off vertically?

Tsunami Tsimulator?

[starglider29a]

In the same vein as the Asteroid Simulator page (http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/), is there anything that can give us some ballpark figures on tsunami wave height and speed vs. distance for a given energy? (Like an Asteroid Strike?) Using 2004 MN4 as a sample, The Impact Simulator gives this value. "The crater opened in the water has a diameter of 5.41 km = 3.36 miles"

Can we use that to estimate a wave height at a given distance?

Also, if an impact we in the Indian Ocean, what effect would be seen in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, being narrow, shallow waterways? We all remember the "shotgun blast" from the Gulf of California in Lucifer's Hammer, now don't we?

Re:Why Worry?

[Anonymous Coward]

Wouldn't we all feel real stupid if we decided to do nothing and an Atlantic tsunami hit?

Personally, I'm of the opinion that wiping out large portions of the population via natural events is a healthy thing for Earth.

We are already damaging the Earth at an incredible rate and we are doing little to curb our growing populations.

If a tsunami hit, earthquake split open a huge hole in the middle of Manhatten, or a plague killed off 65% of the world's population it would only be a GOOD thing for the Earth. Portions of the population would survive and go on to eventually create an even better society.

It's happened in the past and it will happen again. Get over it.

Re:Oh Damn!

[pepgma]

I think the last one was caused by an asteroid http://technotoxin.blogspot.com/2004/12/indian-oce an-tsunami-asteroid.html

Re:Like where?

[drinkypoo]

This is only insightful if you believe in fate. I still believe that some things in the universe are random, or at least that they are affected by the viewer, and thus free will can still exist. Therefore, the idea of dying when it's "your time" is flatly ridiculous to me. I'd rather try to mitigate my risk. That does not, however, include moving, at least as it applies to natural disasters. Getting away from a government inherently hostile to its citizens, on the other hand...

Re:Arthur C Clarke worried

[bludstone]

Because everyone decided to not worry about an Indian Ocean tsunami

http://slashdot.org/articles/04/12/28/0120240.sh tm l?tid=99&tid=1

Uh, actually, plenty of people worried. Arthur C Clarke was there researching the possibility.

--

The purpose of Project Warn is combine enhanced communications and IT systems to provide warning of impending natural or man-made disasters and to provide on-going communications and remote sensing and GIS support during disaster relief operations. The Clarke Foundation is working with the Pacific Disaster Center, the Asian Disaster Mitigation Organization, the United Nations, and the US and Japanese Governments as coordinated through the JUSTSAP organization to carry out a suitable test and demonstration in this area.In particular a simulation and test is being planned in the Pacific Region in 2005 to determine to how to use the latest information and sensing technology more effectively in the advent of that a major Tsunami might impact an Asian country or island. Clarke Foundation personnel are providing technical advice and support on a volunteer basis to this project.

--

Too late though.

So, if Osama gets a nuke...

[NoMoreNicksLeft]

He should plant it on this island, and not in DC?

Re:Wikipedia

[mOoZik]

I'm thinking billions. Each dynamite can only blast a few hundred or thousand pounds of Earth. 500 billion tons is 1000000000000000 pounds. It take time (multiplied by labor), dynamite (as I've mentioned), related survey equipment, transportation & logistics costs, and so on, thus probably pushing the cost into billions. It costs about $50,000 - $100,000 to demolish a 5,000 square foot residential structure. Compare that to 500 billion tons, even though you don't have to worry about carting all the junk away. Still, it would be a massive project.

Re:Mod up parent!

[DavidTC]

I thought baffles were a cool idea the last time this was on /., but now I have weirder one.

Let's build a huge dike around where the mountain is going to slide and drain it. We can call up the Netherlands, they know how to do this kind of stuff.

Combine that with some baffles, and we can break off a piece at a time and drop it, with limited risk if the whole thing breaks lose.

Bah, this is nothing compared to when

[NullProg]

this erupts:
Yellowstone [solcomhouse.com]

The end of the US as we know it.
Enjoy,

Tsunamis

[EinarH]

Since the links kind of lacks real info and I read aout this a couple of weeks ago I might as well give you the links.

Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tsunami Pages. Click on the last article there. [benfieldhrc.com]
The most interesting part IMO:

t is unlikely, however, that the collapse is imminent. Theoretical studies, by Derek Elsworth of Penn State University, of how these landslides are triggered indicate that the forces generated by intrusion of magma into the volcano, ranging from the direct pressure of the rising magma to (perhaps the most significant) pressurisation of trapped groundwater as it is heated by the magma, are necessary to trigger collapse. Elsworth and I have analysed the time taken for these forces to build up and we predict that collapse of a volcano like the Cumbre Vieja is most likely to occur several days to several months after the start of an eruption. As at Mount St. Helens, the collapse is likely to be preceded by progressively accelerating deformation of the unstable flank. Thus, there will be plenty of short-term indications that a collapse may be about to occur, although successful interpretation of these will require detailed monitoring of the volcano.

So just give these people some money, ok?

A pdf about tsunamis in the Atlanic. Link [benfieldhrc.com]

And off course the pics. Link [benfieldhrc.com]

The upshot of the model is that it predicts that between 6 and 9 hours after the collapse of the Cumbre Vieja, tsunami waves with amplitudes of around 50 metres will strike the entire western seaboard of the Atlantic: these values are consistent with the size of the giant boulders and other deposits in the Bahamas, lending support to the model.

6 hours+. Plenty of time to evacuate a lot of people. If they A. know about the danger a from through media and B. a reasonably updtated tsunami warning system.

Intentional Collapse

[Anonymous Coward]

What about the possibility of someone intentionally causing the collapse of the volcano?

Re:Lame sensationalism.

[CrkHead]

Please note the dates on the articles. The first one is from 10/2000 with an update 05/2003; the second one is from last August.

It's not that they were written because they are now relevant; rather they are getting attention because sensational news does sell.

THE OBVIOUS SOLUTION

[ZeeExSixAre]

I can't believe nobody has suggested this: If we can blow mountains up to make way for railroads/roads, then a slightly larger-scaled version of some mountain blowing-upping can push the side of the island into the water in small increments, causing no more than a smidgen of concern!

Not only would we not have to evacuate anyone, but the seismologists wouldn't shit their pants, the coastal habitants would be happy (myself in FL included), the news people would be sad that they don't have a catastrophe to bring in the ratings, and we could live life as normal.

Oh yeah, and those Canary Islands people would probably like this idea...

Re:Early warning

[wayne606]

If we can create enormous holes in the ground via strip mining I'm sure it's not beyond us technologically. You'd want to start at the top and break away rock and somehow let it slide into the ocean in a controlled and gradual way. I can't find a picture of the volcano that would suggest how hard this would be, though.

If this were considered a serious enough problem, the money and political will would be found.

As for early warning, a lot of people live on this island and I'm positive they have some kind of seismic equipment that would give advance notice of an eruption. We would definitely hear about it in advance - maybe days or weeks.

Would the US government have the political will or foresight to organize an evacuation of the Eastern Seaboard and the Carribean Islands, and would this even be remotely possible? Probably no on all counts.

Re:100 million?

[NoMoreNicksLeft]

Gulf coast wouldn't be affected nearly as bad, Florida would take the brunt of it, reducing wave height down to 5-15ft in many places. New Orleans is still screwed though, they're already threatened by any moderately-sized hurricane. 5ft there would be enough to kill everyone in the city, if there were no warning.

Re:Early warning

[buckhead_buddy]

A well to do doctor of my acquaintance had a boat-house up on Lake Seed in North Georgia. Runoff from Lakes Burton's hydroelectric dam feeds Lake Seed which feeds runoff from its hydroelectric dam into Lake Raburn.

Recently the aftermath from one of this year's Hurricanes hit North Georgia hard with thunderstorms and high winds. Lake Burton has historic houses and many homes of power company executives so overflow was dumped into Lake Seed to keep the water level of Lake Burton from rising. Lake Seed rose and washed away this doctor's boat house and motorboats.

Supposedly, the insurance company will not pay for the boat-house or powerboat since the accident was man made rather than natural and therefore not covered by the policy. The insurance representative suggested filing a civil suit against the power company instead.

Take this with a grain of salt of course, though insurance salespeople are very devious with misrepresenting what their policies will actually cover, my doctor friend is notoriously cheap and may have chosen insufficient coverage. Whether this tale is the truth or not is incidental; it has inspired me to review my insurance coverage which is always a good thing to do every once in a while.

Re:Early warning

[saider]

Most costal properties already have flood insurance. Good luck finding your insurance agent after this disater, tho.

This could be the next Lex Luthor plot. Instead of triggering the San Andreas to get beachfront property in Nevada, he could trigger the landslide and buy cheap, devastated land on the US east coast.

Re:Intentional Collapse

[Alan Cox]

Very low.

You need to push 500,000,000 tons of rock (thats real tons not US tons too). Not only would you need to sneak an awful lot of explosive onto the island you'd have to drill some huge huge holes in the right place in an active volcano (ie rather warm rock below the surface in places) and put all your bombs down it without anyone noticing. As an idea of scale you are talking about disloging an object not dissimilar in size to the Isle of Man. Swatting it with a missle or crashing a plane into it isn't going to have much effect.

It is a model that governments have looked at (that much I know from some stuff where I was involved in helping look at more mundane questions like computer super-viruses "chernobyl meets slammer" etc).

It looks more like a great Bond film than a realistic hazard although it is without a doubt a terrorists dream. Prime time tv coverage for several hours of the wave racing towards New York, unavoidable carnage, powerless governments and all the rest.

Re:Early warning

[Shadow Wrought]

What I remember most from my visits to FL was how incredibly flat it is. I grew up in Santa Cruz, CA and now live in Portland, OR and am used to variation in terrain. Looking out of the hotel window you could see nothing but flatness on the horizen in all directions. To put in perspective, the 351' highest point you quote is shorter than over 30 buildings in Miami [skyscraperpage.com] alone!

Re:Early warning

[OECD]

It's a significant land mass, it's not a tree.

True, but the solution may be the same: take it down a little at time. Remember, the problem isn't that millions of tons (or whatever) of rock are going to end up in the sea. It's that they're going to end up there at the same time. If you distribute that same amount over several 'trips' into the ocean, it amounts to a lot of little waves.

Even if you can't eliminate the threat, might it not be possible to reduce it? Think of the danger to your house posed by a 12 foot tree versus a 24 foot tree.

Why the East Coast is mostly safe

[buddhaunderthetree]

I'm not saying that a tsunami wouldn't be bad news for the East Coast I'm just saying that it's less likely to cause the mass damage than pacific and Indian tsunamis for one simple reason. On the East Coast the continental shelf extends fair far out and would rob an approaching wave of much of its energy.

Re:Early warning

[Alan Cox]

The geologists believe there would be a couple of weeks warning that it was likely to happen, not a couple of hours that it had. You'd have time to cancel deliveries, buy a tent on ebay and move a few miles to higher ground.

Re:Like where?

[drinkypoo]

Without randomness everything is predetermined. It's possible to influence seemingly random events, although perhaps not in the way you'd expect or hope for. An event which is predetermined cannot be affected.

Over-hyped

[SJasperson]

I suppose it would be bad form to link to the BBC article Tidal wave threat 'over-hyped' [bbc.co.uk]. Apparently not everyone in the geological research community thinks there's much to this theory.

Re:Pedantic Mode On

[Alan Cox]

Nope its the "Isle of Man"

At least the one I am talking about, that is part of the United Kingdom.

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geo s/ im.html

Re:Why Worry?

[Rob Carr]

That's a funny way to justify having something that would save your life.

Sorry, I live with a number of birds and assume everyone is up on peculiarities of avian biochemistry.

Parrots have a much higher metabolic rate than humans. So the CO level that will kill a parrot is far lower than the level that will kill a human. Non-digital readout smoke detectors go off long after all the birds in the house are dead. With the digital ones, at least there's a chance I'll notice the readout before tragedy strikes, or at least figure out sooner why birds are dying. [shudder]

A friend and his wife and children were saved by the death of their parrot. The bird screamed, died, waking the father. He figured things out and got everyone out of the house in time. I think the kids only stayed in the hospital overnight as a precaution.

I should Ask Slashdot - is there a CO detector available or one that I could home-brew (would only be used as a backup - I've seen my soldering joints) that would alarm at a level I set?

(The non-digital readout CO detectors are cheaper, btw.)

More immediate threat

[FatBear]

The Cascadia subduction zone, off of the Pacific Northwest region of the US, has a potential very similar to the one that just quaked in Sumatra. In recent history it seems to have quaked about every 400-600 years, with the last one being about 305 years ago. You can read about it here. [pnsn.org]

Re:Early warning

[WhiplashII]

There is no direct warning system in place, but the fact is that Africa will be hit first - giving Spain an hour or two notice, and giving the US about ten hours notice to evacuate.

Of course, does anyone think New York could be evacuated in 10 hours?

Re:Early warning

[WhiplashII]

Another thing to be cautious of with insurance - will the insurance company be able to cover what they have insured? Often, after a major incident like a hurricane, local insurance agencies refuse to pay out and instead go bankrupt...

This just doesn't seem physically right...

[afroncio]

I don't know about the rest of you, but this story just doesn't seem physically right to me... I don't see how a relatively local event like a volcanic landslide could cause the same kind of damage that continental plates can do. These two events are not on the same scale. Yes, the landslide is a displacement wave, but it's a geologically minor event compared to a continental plate shift.

Re:Early warning

[AvitarX]

I have read there would be about 10 hours notice for the US.

And it will go 20 Kilometers inland.

couldn't that be handled on foot fairly reasonably?