2004 MN4, Even Higher Probability 524
phreakuencies writes "Worried since the recent post about the MN4 2004 asteroid, I added a bookmark to its 'impact risk' section at NASA. The asteroid started as having a 1/233 probability of hitting earth. Later it raised to 1/63. Daily computations made on 25 Dec raised its chances up to 1/45. Optimists can now say it has a 97.8% probability of missing earth." And Veteran writes " NeoDys offers the 'Orbfit' software package (source code released under the GPL) which can be used to get a pre-release view of the situation with Asteroid 2004MN4."
amazing. (Score:1, Interesting)
Science Desk Home for the Holidays (Score:4, Interesting)
I don't see a conspiracy here, and do think we will be missed, but given how much they hyped previous possible events with less statistical support it is curious they aren't doing follow ups. Could just be that it's Christmas, and things in the science departments are on autopilot.
If this thing stays greater than 1/100 by Monday, expect the papers and television to start picking up on it again. There was a close encounter today with 2004-vw14 (something like 5 lunar orbit distance), and the kooks where on the net prophesizing doom (even though it wasn't all that big a rock). It may take some years to really get a bead on where this thing is going, likely going up and down in probability.
Expect no fewer than a dozen Death-Cults if it stays in double-digit probabilities. Do the Darwin Awards cover Death-Cults?
Incoming Asteroids? Use a nuclear warhead. (Score:1, Interesting)
The second solution is to load a hydrogen bomb onto a Delta 4 rocket and to send the contraption to the asteroid. Within a mile from impact, explode the hydrogen bomb. The explosion will nudge the asteroid slightly and send it in a direction that avoids earth.
The catch here is that if we utilize a hydrogren bomb in this way, we must quickly replace it. The Chinese military is eagerly looking for any weakness in our conventional or nuclear arsenal and would use such a weakness to exploit us [phrusa.org].
Re:Exciting! (Score:2, Interesting)
Joke aside, if they ramp up the risk of this thing hitting earth to one in five, and hype up the devastation it will make, perhaps it will shake people into action to oust all bad governments once the thing misses?
Maybe I'm a sick puppy.., (Score:4, Interesting)
Why? Simply because it would post such a great challenge for humankind. It could well bring much greater cooperation between countries, cooperation of a level presently unheard of.
Certainly, I'm not hoping it actually strikes earth, merely that people work together in order to stop it.
Just be glad that Bush won't be the president at the time. If it did hit, in US soil no less, then he'd start pouring billions per month into NASA for the development of spacecraft to fight the alien 'terrorists' who threw that asteroid at America.
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:5, Interesting)
In any case, we have 24 years and it's not *that* big. Plenty of time to nudge it off course with some of those surplus nukes we have lying around if it is going to hit...
Let's say that the thing will hit (Score:5, Interesting)
Do powerful countries will prefer to do nothing to avert making a mistake that could possibly send the asteroid on their head?
What could possibly do a small country in africa if nobody wants to help them?
Re:Let's say that the thing will hit (Score:5, Interesting)
To get a clue as to the answers, look at the recent devastating earthquakes in Iran - even though Iran was on his "Axis of Evil", Bush was offering aid almost immediately. Sure, besides the humanitarian side, there is also political capital to be made on such a gesture, but that's by the by. I have absolutely no doubt that if this, or any other asteroid, is going to hit us then every capable nation will be working 100% to prevent the impact, no matter where it might be.
Re:Let's say that the thing will hit (Score:3, Interesting)
BTW, I can only assume that whoever moderated the parent "Troll" has had a little too much egg nog this evening...
Re:Not too big a deal, I think (Score:1, Interesting)
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:5, Interesting)
The uncertainty is a long strip that is 0.018 (see NEODyS) of the Earth's radius wide, and many times the Earth's radius long. Go look at:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/images/2004mn4b.gif [nasa.gov]
If the odds don't go down to zero soon, someone will calculate where the stripe of uncertainty is on the globe. It wouldn't be hard to do.
Re:The torrino scale creates unneeded histeric peo (Score:4, Interesting)
As far as a measure of progress, here's a simple one. At 100% progress the probability of impact is either 100% or 0%. Intermediate progress is the width of the window in which the impact might occur. If this window narrows to such a point that it does not include the earth, you get a 0% probability. If the earth is bigger than the entire window, you get a 100% probability. Anything else means there is more work to be done. The rate at which the window narrows will depend on the orbit of the asteroid, but that would give you a rough idea of when you'd be 100% sure.
If you are really curious, the locations and time of every observation that contributes to this is available online [unipi.it]. It's interesting to note that more observations were done today than any other day. This is a direct result of the object being identified as an object of interest on the Torino scale.
Re:Realize this... (Score:2, Interesting)
USA Today (Score:1, Interesting)
Google News has the story at the 4th position is Sci/Tech at the moment. That's just below the 3-story coverage on the Google News Front Page.
I think all hell is about to break loose in the news coverage. The NASA and JPL PR staff are probably driving each other crazy tring to prepare, before the Press drive them crazy.
Re:Maybe I'm a sick puppy.., (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Something to bear in mind (Score:3, Interesting)
What word did I use from Stat 101? PSF (point spread function) is from astronomy. It's what a high-statistics point source looks like on a CCD.
All the other words and ideas are just from error propagation. That's from my undergrad physics lab.
But in reality, you have no idea what models were used to calculate the estimates
It's on the page. 99% of the uncertainty is within 3 sigma. No extended tails, which means it falls off fast enough that you can say that yes, the solution is pulling towards "Earth collision."
Fire that blocks out the sun... (Score:1, Interesting)
If it hits in a heavily forested area, it will start a fire that will burn so much that it will create clouds of smoke and ash that will block out the sun for a very long time. That would suck.
Forget using a nuclear warhead. (Score:3, Interesting)
A better solution is to assemble an large ion rocket in space, then dock it with the asteroid maybe in 2025. Fire off the ion rocket to run for maybe 30-40 days non-stop, and it may change the orbit of the asteroid enough so it misses the Earth at a relative safe range. Maybe by then we'll have even better ion rockets, and the possibility exists we might even slow down the asteroid enough to place it in the L1 zone between the Earth and the Moon. Given the fact that asteroids have very high quality mineral content, someone could make a financial killing (pun not intended
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:3, Interesting)
> a nuke is that afterwards you have a lot of much smaller hurtling bodies [...]
which tend to burn on entry into the atmosphere.
Important Footnote on the Site (Score:3, Interesting)
"Impact Probability
The probability that the tabulated impact will occur. The probability computation is complex and depends on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify. For these reasons the stated probability can easily be inaccurate by a factor of a few, and occasionally by a factor of ten or more."
What they don't say is whether the inaccuracy means more or less risk - or both. I assume on either side.
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:4, Interesting)
Step one: Send out the bigass nuke right now. Put it on one of those ion engine crafts.
Step two: Nail the trajectory down to 99% accuracy.
Step three: Figure out the best way to deal with it. Have it pass by the earth into the sun? Have it slam into the moon? Is it possible to slow it down enough to put it into a stable orbit and mine it for resources later?
Step Four: Once the calculations are done, send the course corrections to our bigass nuke to put it exactly where we need it, and to detonate when we want it to. You don't hit the asteroid directly. You just get close enough and nudge it. This is why you sent the nuke so early, over time, a small nudge adds up to a huge course change.
Step Five: Placate the general public who were hoping they would have to send a mining team up in a risky yet heroic venture to save the earth.
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Party like it's 2099 (Score:2, Interesting)
> Have it pass by the earth into the sun?
> Have it slam into the moon
Cynics would think that "have it hit Baghdad" also would cross the minds of those in charge of that decision.
> You don't hit the asteroid directly.
> You just get close enough and nudge it
So, what would move it? "Air pressure" is not the answer (unless you nudge it really, really late) It would have to be either "mass from the bomb" or "radiation pressure". I doubt that either of these would make any significant impact.
Re:but where is ti going to hit? (Score:3, Interesting)
Good heavens. I guess the fact that after WWII that the US rebuilt their enemies nations and restored their independence. The US helped to form Nato and the UN. As far as respect the US does not treat other nations as less breeds as did the English. The "rest" of the world better get a grip on the fact that the US is no longer a young nation. The US is the senior statesman and has learned that sitting back does not bring peace but far worse wars. If all of Europe stood up to Hitler than Dresden would not have happened. BTW Dresden was not the US but the RAF's attack. The US was not into firebombing in Europe. Dresden was a European attack on Europeans. I thought that one of the European pet peeves was that us poor Americans don't know history? The UN are peace keepers and do not go into combat situations for the most part. The US has unfortunately has had to take on the role of peacemakers using force. Of course we have also seceded many times. The Suez, the Egypt/Israel peace accords, the START agreement,the INF, and yes even NATO. Perhaps if you and a lot of other Europeans would look at the US for themselves instead what they see on TV the movies and your own slanted media you might find that the US does tend to act with a reason. BTW the poulation of Texas is over 22 million so as I said roughly three times the size of Sweden.