How Well Do You Estimate?

A random UK blogger has published a quiz asking readers to estimate various numeric values which they may or may not have knowledge of; and has analyzed the resulting answers to determine how well people guess. The first part of the results looks at some specific questions, and the second part takes a look at the quiz overall.

I estimate that...

[garcia]

I estimate that I would end up somewhere in the middle.

good point

[PatrickThomson]

How Well Do You Estimate?

With 44.7% accuracy!

more or less.

Mirrors

[wetlettuce]

I would estimate that that server stayed up less than 2 minutes after the story was published. Mirrors anyone?

how well do you resist to a slashdotting ?

[dario_moreno]

about 1 minute and 10 requests...

who the hell is Tony Benn by the way ?

I estimate

[penguinoid]

that I will get a +3, funny

Uh-oh

[lukewarmfusion]

Server timed out trying to contact ex-parrot.com.

Looks like we've got an ex-webserver on our hands.
.
.
"It's not dead, it's IIS!"

I haven't read the article, but...

[ciaohound]

I'll estimate that in about an hour there will be 347 replies posted, about 10 of which will be +5 insightful and, oh, maybe 13 +5 funny.

Re:I estimate that...

[BoldAC]

Reminds me of the joke...

Why can't girls measure distances?

(Holding up a pinkie)

Because they've been told that THIS is 6 inches all their life.

AC

I estimate....

[Anonymous Coward]

that we'll end up with about 30 comments about how fast the site went down due to slashdotting....

I'm pretty good

[Anonymous Coward]

I can usually estimate within plus or minus one or two Libraries of Congress every time.

Re:I estimate

[blibloblu]

Damn! Parent got +5, please mod him down quick!

Re:I estimate

[Anonymous Coward]

Posting a reply as an AC, I estimate I won't get modded at all.

And the result is:

[bittmann]

Most folks are 70% correct, at least 30% of the time.

Re:Well as a subscriber to slashdot

[EmagGeek]

African or European?

I estimate the blogger will have a larger

[jim_nanney]

ISP bill this month, but of course, this is only an estimation.

Re:Uh-oh

[bittmann]

It's not pining, it's passed on. This webserver is no more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its maker. This is a late webserver. It's a stiff. Bereft of life, it rests in peace. If you hadn't nailed it to an IP address, it would be pushing up the daisies. It's rung down the curtain and joined the choir invisible. This is an ex-webserver.

Re:I estimate

[leav]

that no one will answer the question in mny sig. and that i will not be modrated. ever.

Re:I estimate

[mark0]

It was all I could do to not use my mod points to adjust you down so you'd be right...

not offtopic

[penguinoid]

that should be +1, ironic

Re:I estimate that...

[m_chan]

I estimate that I would end up somewhere in the middle.

Does that imply that you are mean spirited?

Re:Estimating Anecdote

[savagedome]

... After a 2 year study, the National Science Foundation announced the following results on America's recreational preferences:

1. The sport of choice for unemployed or incarcerated people is: basketball.
2. The sport of choice for maintenance level employees is: bowling.
3. The sport of choice for blue-collar workers is: football.
4. The sport of choice for supervisors is: baseball.
5. The sport of choice for middle management is: tennis.
6. The sport of choice for corporate officers is: golf.

Conclusion: The higher you rise in the corporate structure, the smaller your balls become.

Re:Time and Miles

[mike_mgo]

That's easy when you're just 5 minutes away and then drive around the block for 42 minutes.

Re:Estimating Anecdote

[N3Z]

A large Oak may have 250,000, and I have to rake up every !^$!$#@&%^$ one of them!

Light From the Sun

[MikeMacK]

* [How long does] light from the Sun [take] to reach the Earth?

I guess it depends on if the chute opens or not [slashdot.org]

Re:Mythical Man Month

[bunratty]

What? Your management actually pays attention to your estimates? Where I used to work, I was always told whatever I was working on would take two weeks, no matter whether I said it would take two days or two months!

Re:Estimation vs Prediction

[rjstanford]

So - does that example have anything to do with your linked picture?

On second thoughts, I really don't want to know.

I estimate pretty well...

[bmalnad]

half of the time I'm almost always pretty close to the correct.

Re:Estimating distances..

[david duncan scott]

I'm assuming that you then double your estimate, or is this the friendly-fire method?

Re:Estimating Anecdote

[Anonymous Coward]

So when you counted them, how many were there?

Re:I estimate that...

[ThePlague]

I've heard that joke in a somewhat different form:

Q: Why are men so much better at reading maps?

A: Because only the male mind is comfortable with the concept "one inch equals one mile".

Amusing anecdote

[Col. Klink (retired)]

A former co-worker was telling us about some of her tutoring experiences. She was helping some high school kids with the concept of estimation. She looked at the ceiling and said you could estimate that it was about 10 feet high. She told them that "the great thing about estimation is that it doesn't have to be the 'right' answer."

So she pointed a car parked nearby and asked one of the students how far he thought the car was. His reply, "50 gallons."

Incredulous, she said that his answer didn't make sense.

"But that's the great thing about estimation! It doesn't have to be right!"

Probably

[Anonymous Coward]

...he didn't go to college.

Re:Mythical Man Month

[AuMatar]

He was estimating the name of the book.

Re:I estimate that...

[Anixamander]

In Russia most people overestimate the percentage of people with higher education as well. (Don't have the reference handy, but you probably can't read in Russian anyway - but it's on fom.ru). Also, about 60% of Russians said they want their kids to become scientists - even while the average salary in science is around povery line and everyone knows it.


No offense, but this is the worst In Soviet Russia joke ever.

Re:I estimate that...

[Chuck1318]

according to the government African American and black were synonymous, except for the fact that using the term black is not politically correct or preferred anymore.

I know a fellow who was quite amused on a trip to Africa to see a politically correct American (to whom the terms black and Negro were anathema) struggle to talk about the people there: "These African-Americans . . . uh, African-American Africans . . . uh, African-Africans . . . uh . . ."