Simulation Of An Asteroid Impact In The Year 2880

JoeRobe writes "Researchers at UCSC have simulated a possible outcome of an impact by asteroid 1950DA when it passes near us in the year 2880. Note that there is a 0.3% chance of impact during that encounter. In the event that it impacts in the Atlantic, they predict that the '60,000 megaton blast' would create 400 foot waves along the east coast. In addition to an assessment of the danger, their studies point out the resulting geologic features that we should be looking for now, which would indicate where and when such impacts have occured in the past."

Re:Hope...

[DrMrLordX]

By 2880, I would hope we would have some miner drones attached to that baby draining it of whatever valuable minerals it may have. At least then it won't be so massive when it hits Earth . . .

Re:Lucifers Hammer?

[ObviousGuy]

Just because there is a 3 in 1000 chance of a strike and a strike actually occurs, it does not mean that the initial odds were wrong.

One things that I haven't seen addressed ...

[rock_climbing_guy]

Everyone's talking about an asteroid slamming into the Atlantic Ocean. It's 2 AM and I honestly am not going to RTFA before I crash tonight, but it seems strange that they always consider the idea of the asteroid slamming directly into the surface.

There are many distinct ways that the asteroid could hit. I imagine that after you determine if, when, and where it impacts the Earth, the next most important thing to know to weigh the consequences would be at what angle and trajectory it hits at. I imagine it would be quite different if it hit at a 1/16 * Pi angle and streaked across the sea than it would be if it hit orthogonal ( right angle ) to the surface.

Also, I imagine the rotation of the asteroid could be a major factor, as well as its shape and composition.

Re:Hope...

[jkrise]

" if in the next 800 hundred years or so we haven't worked out a way to prevent this, we probably deserve extinction for being idle."

I think you're being a bit harsh here. Is idleness the only reason for non-innovation? What about patents? Copyrights? How many years back did we 'invent' these things?
What about money being wasted on 'defence systems' at the cost of innovative research? If World Peace were to be established Today, how much of the wrold's defence budgets could go into this kind of 'Save Humanity' work?
What's the guaranty that more draconian acts than the DM?A could get passed, and stall research in vital areas? How many countries do research on even things like GPS? Peaceful nuclear reseacrh?

Just consider this SCO-IBM imbroglio - how can an entity such as SCO even claim to own the brains of programmers and developers by paying up some cash. How much has DOS (the operating system) advanced over the past 10 years? How many viable alternatives to the X-Window environments have been developed?

And meanwhile,
How many locks, anti-competitive measures and worse tactics have been imposed on good innovative software? Even standards and protocols? I'm sorry, but blaming lack of innovation on mere idleness just doesn't cut it.

As Evelyn Waugh famously said, we need to release generations from captivity, that may be more irksome than our own.

Re:Actually...

[Anonymous Coward]

Why hasn't NASA figured out a way to use this asteroid to get somewhere? Think about it, asteroids are like interstellar trains. We should be figuring out how to hop on one of these things, find some life somewhere else, then hop back on the next one heading back toward Earth.

Not with a BANG but with a 'Kachoo'

[malia8888]

From the article: Although the probability of an impact from 1950 DA is only about 0.3 percent, it is the only asteroid yet detected that scientists cannot entirely dismiss as a threat.

IMHO mankind has more to fear from viruses than tsunamis generated from wandering asteroids. I am afraid that something very tiny will wipe us out, not someting very big.

I am not a biologist, but I bet the threat is more than 0.3 percent that this could happen. This SARS outbreak has me thinking.

Re:90 Percent?

[Anonymous Coward]

Since the replies so far are half-assed, here's the answer:

Once you've reached 90%, 90% of the asteroids you "discover" you already know about, and only 10% are new. So finding new asteroids is now 10 times harder than before, and going from 90% to 99% (a 9% increase) is just as hard as finding the first 90%. Same problem going from 99.0% to 99.9%, etc.

Re:By 2880

[fatboyslack]

They are gonna LTAO...
I wonder if they'll have @$$es in 2880?
Antennas? Appendages?

Laugh their Antennas off?

Still, I digress. Its pretty wacky to think what things will be like in 877 years. I mean, look at what has happened since
*gets out calculator, 'cause its late and I'm tired*
the year of our Lord 1126? The most sophisticated weapon was the longbow, and the french actually use to put up a fight. The Church reigned supreme etc. So much has changed, and todays world would seem bonkers to folk from back then. Hmm, reading this back, I must be tired. Its all so damn obvious.

Re:Not with a BANG but with a 'Kachoo'

[Graymalkin]

We do indeed have a bit to fear from deadly viruses but the probability a virus is going to wipe our species out is probably somewhere around an asteroid impact wiping us out. Of all the bajillions of viruses only a fraction kill us with impunity and as our understanding of them increases their ability to kill us diminishes. This is not to say we're technologically immune to disease, we just understand the process a bit better now than we have.

Interesting "fact"

[minton]

"The so-called K/T impact, for example, ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago." So this is now a fact? Why wasn't I told?

400ft waves are not possible

[Anonymous Coward]

The maximum theoretical wave height that saltwater can achieve is 263ft. The highest recorded wave ever, I believe, was 170ft. After 263ft, the wave crest is so large it simply cannot sustain itself and the wave will break.

Re:90 Percent?

[Theaetetus]

Sadly, nothing short of a asteroid impact in the western world will change this. I just hope that it's not mistaken for an act of terrorism, triggering a nuclear holocaust.

Agreement with your other points but this one - huh? There's a big kablooie, it gets mistaken for a terrorist act, first reaction is to launch the nukes? Is that what we did on 9/11? Even if it was bigger, what's the point? How does one take out a terrorist by launching nukes at every country in the world? Serious overreaction there, and some massive FUD. You find the terrorist, hunt them down, and get them - you don't randomly start throwing missiles at other countries.

-T