Flu Epidemics Coincide with Sunspots 27
Croatian Sensation writes "According to this article flu epidemics are four times more likely when sunspot activity is high. They've analyzed records going back to 1729 and indeed, the correlation is statistically significant. Neat." The research seems a little... thin.
Re:Statisitcally Significant??? (Score:1)
Okay. Think of flipping a coin. If it is a fair coin, it will land heads up 50% of the time. But on any *particular* series of coin flips, it is unlikely that there will be *exactally* 50% heads and *exactally* 50% tails. In 100 flips, you may get 61 heads and 39 tails, or 43 heads and 57 tails.
So we want to figure out if this *is* a fair coin, or is it a coin weighted to give 60 heads for every 40 tails, for example. So through lots of mid-level math, we calculate the probability that a fair coin will give a result of 61H, 39T. That is, if we repeat the experiment (flipping the coin 100 times) what proportion of those experiments will give *exactally* 61H and 39T.
We then look at this number to see if there is a high probability that the coin is fair. Normally 5% is the number used. That is, if there is less than a 5% chance that a fair coin would produce these results, then we conclude that the coin was *not* a fair coin. Note that you can't "statistically prove" that the coin is fair, only that it is likely unfair.
There is nothing magical about 5%. You could use 1% or 0.1% if you wanted to. You can go further and do confidence intervals to see exactally how certain you are of the percentages. In a good research paper, the researchers will say what tests and what threshold values they used.
On the original article: what is likely the case, (the article is unclear on the point) is that the researchers supposed that there was no correlation between sunspots and flu epidemics (fair coin). They ran the numbers and found that there *was* a bias, and random fluctuations in sampling were not enough to account for it. (less than the 5% chance it was fair.) They thus conclude that there is some correlation between sunspots and flu epidemics.
Statistics are quite firmly planted in mathematics - about as firmly objective as you can get. The problem comes when people who don't understand the processes involved start twisting their meaning. In this case the big red flag to me is Correlation Does Not Equal Causation. Sunspots have an 11 year cycle, perhaps the flu also has an 11 (or 22, 33, etc) year cycle which just randomly (~9% chance - too big to discard the random hypothesis) coincide.
That said, if your still curious about statistics, pick up a beginning stats book. The better ones shouldn't be *too* painful.
Just remember - if you refuse to learn more about a topic, don't be surprised when other harshly dismiss your opinions as garbage:
"Dude! Check THIS out: My Linux box came with the latest version of the internet!"
Re:Statistical Clumping (Score:1)
Err, neither are lunar phases. About 29.5 days on average IIRC, but it does vary (in a predictable manner, of course)....
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Significance (Score:1)
In fact, it is, especially when the researchers seem mystified about any kind of causal relationship. Anything between 1% and 5% is usually considered borderline. These numbers are based on assumptions that are difficult to verify, and it is difficult to calculate the effect when they are violated. Statistics is an art more than a science.
Sun Virus? (Score:1)
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Easy solution (Score:1)
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Re:There could very well be a relationship (Score:1)
Influenza is seasonal, but with a twist. School resumes in fall. *Millions* of people are in close contact after a break. A few get sick, many catch it, and so on - by winter, everyone is sick. They see their parents, their grandparents, etc.
Winter is great for causing symptoms similar to catching a cold. I think the closest link you could find to temperature and illness is when people stay outside long enough to lower their body temperature, severely enough to allow virii/bacteria that die at 36C to live at say, 34C. (read: not likely)
Just my two bits.
Re:There could very well be a relationship (Score:1)
> activity
Actually, sunspots are considerably cooler than the rest of the sun (2000K or so).
> Another thing to consider is that influenza
> seems to originate with birds in China,
> Australia and some other places that I can not
> recall at the moment.
Current theory is that inluenza normally crosses from migratory and domesticated birds (ducks, chickens etc) to pigs, and then to humans. In '97(?) there was a scare in Hong Kong about a case of flu that a child apparently got directly from chickens. This would lead to a major epidemic, as many more humans are in contact with birds than with pigs.
HTH
Uhhuh... right.... (Score:1)
Re:Sunspots and mutation rate? (Score:1)
The ancients (Score:1)
Re:Statisitcally Significant??? (Score:1)
Re:uh (Score:1)
Statisitcally Significant??? (Score:1)
"There's lies, Damned lies, and Statistics" - Mark Twain
Re:There could very well be a relationship (Score:1)
Actually the intermediate link you propose about the weather is correct. Recent discoveries by Eigil Friss-Christensen at Danish Space Research Institute [www.dsri.dk] indicates that there IS a correlation between solar activity (and sunspots) and mean temperature here on earth.
The correlation is that high solar activity and hence high solar wind density excludes some of the cosmic rays from the inner solar system.
The lack of comsmic rays then cause fewer clouds to condensate and fewer clouds results in higher temperatures.
(check here [www.dsri.dk] for a link to the publications on this subject; search for 'Friis-Christensen' to find the relevant ones).
Yours Yazeran
Plan: to go to Mars with a hammer some day
Confirms a Hoyle theory. (Score:1)
From: Robert Clark (rgclark@my-deja.com)
Subject: Sunspot correlation to influenza confirmed.
Newsgroups: sci.astro, sci.space.policy, sci.astro.seti
Date: 2001-03-05 11:04:20 PST
Found this on Slashdot.com:
Flu epidemics coincide with solar eruptions, B.C. study says
You're coughing, you're sneezing, you think you've just got the flu, but you
could be a victim of sunspots
http://www.nationalpost.com/home/story.html?f=/
Some possible causes are a connection between flu epidemics and weather
which is known to be effected by sunspots or possibly the increase in
radiation during high sunspot periods damages the human immune system.
However, Hoyle and Wickramasinghe had noted this correlation earlier and
used this to support their idea that influenza comes from comets:
The Dilemma Of Influenza
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/life-00d.html
"Peaks of solar activity will undoubtedly assist in the descent of charged
molecular aggregates (including viruses) from the stratosphere to ground
level. Thus according to our present point of view serious influenza
epidemics would follow such peaks, provided the culprit molecular aggregates
were recently dispersed in the stratosphere from cometary meteor streams.
With a more or less regular occurrence of such meteor showers the limiting
condition may then be seen as the intensity of solar activity, leading
naturally to coincidences between the timings of pandemics or major
epidemics and sunspot peaks."
Germs from Outer Space! Researchers Say Flu Bugs Rain Down from Beyond
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetear
In this page, the H & W theory was criticized for suggesting the higher
solar radiation could lead to more influx of cometary material:
"There is scant evidence of any science going on here," said Stanford
University physicist Christopher Barrington-Leigh, who studies the upper
atmosphere and lower ionosphere. "According to the authors, solar activity
'will undoubtedly assist in the descent of charged molecular aggregates,'
but this is unphysical and unfounded."
However, there is evidence that increased solar radiation can increase the
numbers of visible meteroids in the Leonid meteor showers:
Meteor Storm Science: A 301 Explantion
by Robert McNaught
Canberra - November 16, 1999
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/leonid-99h.html
"We know the solar wind has some influence on the particles producing visual
meteors. The radiation counteracts the Sun's gravitational attraction, so
particles orbit the Sun more slowly. This is why storms occur in years
shortly after passage of the parent comet. The exact time lag for the main
bulk of the particles depends on the range of masses and ejection
velocities, and the number of orbital revolutions before encounter."
McNaught along with Asher produced the most widely accepted theory for
predicting the occurrence of the Leonids. Asher credits a theory of Lyytinen
and van Flandern for including the effects of radiation pressure in
predicting the timing and intensity of the Leonids:
The Moonlit Leonids 2000
http://www.spacescience.com/headlines/y2000/ast
"They've done some interesting work on the effect of radiation forces in
dispersing meteoroids," says Asher of Lyytinen and van Flandern, "and their
predictions could well turn out to be correct. If pushed, I would go with
our lower estimates of 100 per hour."
It is interesting to note that the Leonid display for 2000 did turn out to
be within the higher range predicted by Lyytinen and van Flandern using the
effects of radiation pressure:
The Moonlit Leonids 2000
http://www.spacescience.com/headlines/y2000/ast
"This year's likely encounters with dust streams are tabulated below. The
higher estimates for Leonid meteor rates, in the range 200 to 700 per hour,
come from astronomers Esko Lyytinen and Tom van Flandern, who are analyzing
the streams in much the same fashion as Asher and McNaught have done."
Leonids 2000 Special Report
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/leonids_2
18 November 2000 results
"Activity began to increase November 17 at 10:00 p.m. UT, according to the
International Meteor Organization (IMO). Starting around 1:30 a.m. UT on the
18th, a rate of 200 meteors per hour was observed. This rose to a peak of
about 300 per hour around 3:45 a.m. UT.
"Individual reports indicate during a second peak, for which the Eastern
United States was the prime viewing location, the hourly rate jumped to 120
to 180, and higher in brief stretches.
"Short bursts produced reports of an hourly rate as high 450."
However, it should be noted that the Lyytinen and van Flandern prediction
used van Flandern's controversial theory that comets are in fact debris
clouds orbiting asteroids:
Skywitness: The Leonid Meteor Storm From Girne, Cyprus
http://www.discovery.com/guides/space/leonids/s
Their work has appeared in a peer-reviewed journal:
Predicting the Strength of Leonid Outbursts
Earth, Moon, and Planets, v. 82/83, p. 149-166 (1998)
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/bib_query?199
I don't know whether the same result could be obtained by including the
effects of radiation pressure with the standard model of comet composition
(in the interview on the "Skywitness: The Leonid Meteor Storm From Girne,
Cyprus" page, van Flandern claims that it can not.)
The predictions for the November 2001 Leonids by Asher & McNaught and by
Lyytinen & van Flandern are markedly different, which should provide a good
test of the accuracy of their respective models:
Predictions of upcoming Leonid activity, peak rates, and time of the peak.
http://web99.arc.nasa.gov/~leonid/1998.html
There is a difference between the effects of radiation pressure Hoyle and
Wickramasinghe are claiming from that of the Lyytinen & van Flandern model,
in that H & W seem to be saying higher radiation pressure would increase the
influx of cometary material already surrounding the Earth, whereas Lyytinen
& van Flandern seem to be only discussing the perturbations of cometary
material as the comet orbits the Sun, which would effect where and when the
Earth would meet the densest cometary streams. Note for example that by
including the effects of radiation pressure Lyytinen & van Flandern predict
a lower Leonid intensity for 2001 than does the Asher & McNaught model, as
shown in the tables in the "Predictions of upcoming Leonid activity, peak
rates, and time of the peak" page. However, note that the correlation
between flu outbreaks and solar activity is not exact. It may be that
determining the effect of solar radiation on cometary streams could provide
a more accurate correlation.
Another criticism of the H & W influenza theory is that the amounts of
infalling cometary material would be too small to cause the effects H & W
claim:
Germs from Outer Space! Researchers Say Flu Bugs Rain Down from Beyond
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/planetear
"Matthew Genge, of the Department of Mineralogy at the London Natural
History Museum, has estimated the amount of comet dust that survives entry
into the lower atmosphere, and thus how frequently an average-sized human
might be struck.
"Genge figures that if you live to be 5,000 years old, you'll likely
encounter one comet dust particle. Were it to harbor a virus, you would
presumably have to inhale the particle, further reducing the odds of
infection."
However, recent research shows more cometary material than previously
thought can survive the plunge through the atmosphere:
Leonid Meteor Shower: Sowing the Seeds of Life?
http://www.space.com/searchforlife/leonids_biol
"Other researchers have shown that meteors both small and large do not heat
up as much as previously thought, allowing the possibility that dormant life
could arrive on an incoming space rock or, just possibly, embedded in the
dust grain of a comet."
Bob Clark
Bioluminescent bacteria in comets? (Score:1)
And if microorganisms can exist in comets, all bets are off:
From: Robert Clark (rgclark@my-deja.com)
Subject: Bioluminescent bacteria in comets?
Newsgroups: sci.astro, sci.space.policy, sci.astro.seti
Date: 2001-03-05 12:48:18 PST
The post copied below dicussed the theory of Hoyle and Wickramasinghe that
influenza comes from comets. This might find support in the curious glowing
trails found during the Leonid meteor showers:
Lasers Brings Leonids Alive
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/leonid-99c.html
"According to Dr. Jack Drummond, the laboratory's Directed Energy
Directorate astronomer, the Leonid meteors leave behind trails which, unlike
ordinary meteors that fade in a matter of seconds, can last up to an hour
and are still unexplained.
"I call these lingering meteor trails 'glowworms in the sky' since they are
not only visible for minutes by chemical reactions, but are twisted by the
winds into serpentine shapes, appearing like snakes or worms,' Drummond
explained."
The trails have been found to be peculiar to the 33 year periodic Leonid
storm periods:
"The scientists hope to answer why the 'glowworms' are peculiar to the
Leonid storm periods, which occur every 33 years, and why they are rarely
seen at other times. They wonder if it may imply something about the
composition of the parent comet."
As the page describes them:
"The glow, called chemiluminescence, is the production of light from
chemical reactions similar to bioluminescence, the same kind of glowing
reaction found in biological entities such as fireflies and their larvae,
glowworms."
However, if it is true that comets can contain microorganisms then perhaps
these glowing trails are in fact due to bioluminescence in bacteria. Then
the reason they appear during the 33 year storm periods could be because the
Earth is closest to the parent comet during these times and the bacteria
more easily survive the transfer to Earth.
Bioluminescent bacteria are known to produce their light when they are
disturbed:
Blazing a trail
http://www.newscientist.com/ns/19991120/blazing
Then the light in the Leonid trails could be triggered by the turbulence in
the air as the meteoroids streak through the atmosphere.
Most bioluminescence is of the blue-green color. This would be one thing to
check for. Another would be the spectroscopic signature of the molecules
that produce bioluminescence.
-snip-
Re:possible explanation (Score:1)
Re:Statisitcally Significant??? (Score:2)
BTW, what's "holocost"? Is that the admission price for a turn in the Holodeck?
Re:Statisitcally Significant??? (Score:2)
This is meaningful.
uh (Score:2)
2% chance of it being random? That's not exactly thin. Though of course every slashdot story has to end with someone casting doubt on the story subject, since everyone seems deathly afraid to be thought of as gullible or naive...
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Re:There could very well be a relationship (Score:2)
If sunspots do influence weather by heating the Earth in uneven ways then that might create certain patterns of pressure fronts. IIRC, sunspots are locations of hotter sun activity so presumably the Earth would get more high pressure zones? But if that were true how would this affect the spread of influenza? Isn't influenza spread during cold seasons and wouldn't this require low pressure zones as opposed to high ones?
Another thing to consider is that influenza seems to originate with birds in China, Australia and some other places that I can not recall at the moment. So somehow the way weather is affected by sunspots causes the migration of these disease infected birds to spread to more populous areas thus infecting more people?
Sunspots and mutation rate? (Score:2)
Egads... (Score:2)
OK,
- B
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Statistical Clumping (Score:2)
The human brain filters vast quantities of data, seeking things that appear unusual, and only then does it send out a conscious signal: "Wow! Look at that!" The wider we case our pattern-seeking net, the more likely it is to catch a clump.
People used to think that a woman's cycle corrsponded with the phases of the moon, because they were roughly 28 days. However, they are NOT exactly 28 days, and a Gibbon has a much shorter period while a mountain gorilla has a longer one.
People look for and expect to find patterns (even such things as the shape of the pyramids in Giza having astronomical relevence in their proportions. We expect to find patterns, and we find them, but that doesn't mean it's significant. It might just be a statistical clump.
Flu causes sunspots? (Score:4)
Imagine that... "Cover your mouth when you sneeze, Johnny, or you may cause another sunspot."
TheNewWazoo
There could very well be a relationship (Score:4)
I can't think of a possible physical mechanism that directly links sunspots and influenza. But how about an intermediate step? Sunspots influence weather. And weather... influences the transmission of influenza. Influenza is a seasonal disease, after all.
A slight change in the climate wouldn't by itself trigger an epidemic, and it probably wouldn't stop one -- epidemics/pandemics are probably triggered more by antigenic drifts/shifts. But it might ever so slightly change the odds that a new strain will have the chance to gain a foothold, maybe enough to be statistically detectable.
And who knows? Maybe there's even a linkage with the antigenic changes as well. Suppose that, like in humans, these weather changes are influences the transmission of animal strains of influenza in wildlife and farm animals too. It's thought that the mixing of strains from different species (Mainly Human/Avian/Porcine) in a host susceptible to more than one variety (Like pigs) is what drives antigenic shift -- which gives us epidemics. Hmmm...
They call it the "sun's hearbeat" (Score:4)
They're talking about both parallel and concentric layers of gas: the concentric ones are the outer convective layer, the inner radiative layer, and the thin shear layer between them, known as the tachocline. The convective and radiative zones rotate at different speeds (not "opposite directions!"), while the tachocline changes speed periodically; the speeds of the layers above and below the tachocline also change periodically, but in opposite directions (the changes in speed are in opposite directions, meaning one speeds up while the other slows, not opposite rotations) -- which implies that the tachocline is oscillating.
While the radiative zone rotates essentially as a solid body (despite the fact that it's actually a highly-compressed plasma), the convective outer zone doesn't. In fact, the polar regions of the convective zone have a one-year oscillation coupled to the tachocline, while the equatorial regions have a 1.3-year oscillation. These, I think, are the "parallel layers" from the article.
What's entirely unexpected about this is the period: everyone thought it would be connected to the 11-year sunspot cycle [slashdot.org], but instead there are two separate periods, 1.0 and 1.3 years, neither of which has any obvious relationship with the sunspot-cycle [goatse.cx] period. Once again, we find that the simple models aren't a great match for reality -- and science is nowhere near the end of its search for understanding of the universe. (Which is a good thing!)
As for flu epidemics, I am not educated.
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