Stephen Hawking's Predictions

Hero_or_what writes: "CNN has a story about Stephen Hawking.In a recent talk in Bombay, Stephen Hawking has predicted that humans would colonize other planets within 100 years. He also predicts sucessful improvement in the human design in the next millennium." Pretty safe predictions, IMHO.

Safe Prediction

[Crypthanatopsis]

"I am not advocating human genetic engineering as a good thing," he said. "I'm just saying it is likely to happen in the next million years whether we like it or not."

Emphasis mine. Interesting prediction. Likely not to be disproven before it is forgotten... a self-fulfilling prophecy? Also, since when has a millennium been a million years?

That was probably some bad reporting on behalf of CNN, but Hawking's speech program might have messed up, saying "a million years" instead of "a millennium".

-Crypthanatopsis

Advanced Human Race on Other Planets

[riv0rx]

I guess he figures earthlings won't allow genetic engineering in the next 100 years, so people like him will just fly to mars to grow babies in farms and make them genetically perfect. How fun is that?

Prediction:

[Anonymous Coward]

A hundred years from now, this will still be the first post on this article. (Although /. may not be around anymore.)

Re:One questionable prediction.

[Firefalcon]

ONE: Enough other nations start to catch up to the US and the USSR to put their feet to the fire

Europe and China are both making efforts to have a bigger presence in space and space exploration. However, I have yet to see sign of either of the superpowers hurrying on space exploration in reply to China's (or any other countries) blossoming space exploration. I also believe that Europe is sending (or has launched)a probe to Mars...

Re:That was interesting...

[Bearpaw]

I think it was pretty obvious that he was exaggerating for effect.

Re:That was interesting...

[Actinophrys]

The article precedes the quotation with saying that Hawking urged for people to slow population growth. It looks to me like the line was intended as a naive projection to indicate the problem, and that the context got muddled.

One questionable prediction.

[Faulty Dreamer]

The poster says that they are pretty safe predictions but I would really have to question the prediction that humans will colonize other planets, or even have permanent residences (I'll address the space station in a sec) of any kind outside of Earth's atmosphere anytime within the next 100 years, maybe much longer. Sure, the space station is a nice first step, but let's face it, there aren't any people up there that are permanently stationed there. And we need some sort of permanent settlement in space to get the real first step out of the way.

The real first step in my opinion is some group of people that are willing to say goodbye to Earth and just not come back (maybe for visits, but probably not for a few generations yet). I'm talking living, breathing, working, having children and dying somewhere other than Earth. And people go nuts on the "we're not designed for it" mantra when this is mentioned, but so what! The first single celled organisms in the ocean weren't designed to create concertos either. We will adapt, our bodies will change to whatever environment we put them in (lighter gravity may cause taller, stringier looking people, heavier gravity may cause shorter much more well muscled people, and other changes can be predicted as well). It will take time, and without genetic engineering the first few people may be uncomfortable or even have new diseases to contend with. But that's what exploration is like.

Now, the reason I say I don't see this happening in the next 100 years is that there is just no huge pressing feeling that we need to in the vast majority of the desicion makers. Which is too bad, because there are a number of people in the general population that do care about this sort of thing and think that we have sat in a period of scientific stagnation when it comes to space for nearly thirty years. And in a way we have. We study from the ground and spacecraft that aren't much more evolved than the craft that journeyed to the moon and back, a little tin can with a package of humanity inside. The space shuttle was a step, but a step that became far too overbearing. It should have been just a step, not an overwhelming "complete" project. What happened to the exciting developments once talked about for space exploration? The developments of space craft that could take off and land just exactly like airplanes, with specially designed engines for both in atmosphere flight and out of atmosphere flight. There were so many hopes what feels like just a few years ago for things of this nature. And it seems (at least from the common person's perspective) that all those hopes have been thrown away because it is much more important to make sure that we shovel more power into the hands of the already rich and keep the poor people (that are actually footing most of the bill anyway) from getting out of hand (sorry, I'll stop that rant now).

So, there are two possible ways that colonizing another planet, or the moon, or a truly permanent space station/settlement could become a reality.

ONE: Enough other nations start to catch up to the US and the USSR to put their feet to the fire and make them think "Whoah, we gotta get going or we are going to be beat!". The reason this might work is the fear of the governments of these two behemoths that some other country would gain exclusive rights to the resources of near space if they didn't get out there and start claiming things in the name of their respective nations.

TWO: Find some way to make the prospect of space colonization monetarily rewarding to businesses so that large corporations take an interest in the space race. Now, realistically, I don't know what could happen here (maybe super-perfect low-g manufacturing?), but big business is really in charge of our government now. If we make space interesting to these big businesses (in other words, make it profitable) then there will be a huge, gigantic effort poured into further space exploration and eventually colonization (perhaps a slave labor camp based on the moon for the previously mentioned low-g manufacturing. I know it's not morally good, nor is it something I would like, but at least it would be something off of this god-forsaken rock).

Anyway, other than that, nice article. Steven Hawking is definitely one of the (if not THE) greatest minds of our time. It will be a sad day when I hear his name mentioned in an obituary, and I hope much more of his knowledge is put to use and explored further before that day comes.

That was interesting...

[RareHeintz]

...but it had a couple of disappointing bits. The line about the earth being covered with people shoulder-to-shoulder and glowing red hot from electricity consumption by 2600 is exactly the sort of facile linear projection of Last Week's Best Numbers that I would not have expected from someone like Hawking - unless he was saying it to get a laugh.

Anyway, just my US$2e-2.

OK,
- B
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