Dispelling Myths About Geomagnetic Reversal 158
UniverseToday has an interesting look at geomagnetic reversal, the process in which the Earth's magnetic poles trade places. The article cites known trends and recent studies to debunk doomsday myths and unsubstantiated claims about the process. One such study is attempting to model the earth's core with a 26-ton ball of molten metal. Another recently found evidence that the Earth has a second, weaker magnetic field. "We do know that this magnetic pole flip-flop has occurred many times in the last few million years; the last occurred 780,000 years ago according to ferromagnetic sediment. A few scaremongering articles have said geomagnetic reversal occurs with 'clockwork regularity' — this is simply not true."
it switched last week... (Score:5, Funny)
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There's much disinformation below, so I'm posting way up here to save you time. First, magnetic poll reversal is a chaotic process. It's simply not predictable, and these 2012 guys are buffoons. Second, poll reversal will not cause electronics to blow up due to a rapid change in magnetic fields - the change will be far too slow and weak in strength. It takes a thousand years [sciencedaily.com] or more for a pole reversal. However, during that time will likely be a short period of little or no magnetic field, and we will
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You might be in for an interesting few thousand years (or so), but the way my knees are going (in my 40s ; too much cave crawling), I'm not sure I'd find anything very interesting for more than another century or so.
BTW, what's your trick for maintaining thousands of years of interest in the outside world? Extreme calorie restriction, or being disembowelled according to the Book of the Dead, dried, and s
Twice a Year! No? (Score:3, Funny)
I thought this happened twice a year and Congress mandated it. Spring forward and fall back and all that.
Not really worried. (Score:1, Interesting)
The only reason I'd really be worried about the magnetic field flipping is that a changing magnetic field induces a current in a conductor. This means every electronic and electrical device with a closed loop would experience a large current, likely destroying the smaller equipment.
The magnitude is questionable, though. It all depends on how quickly the magnetic field changes, what the field strength of the earth is, and the design of electrical devices affected.
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Comment removed (Score:5, Informative)
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A more comprehensive chart at a variety of scales (zoomed in on the last ~1Ma (million years) the last 5Ma and over the last 160Ma is available on the relevant wikipedia page about geomagnetic reversals [wikipedia.org]. The fluctuations are anything but "regular". Anyone who describes them that way doesn't know what they are talking about. Sure, like anything, you can calculate a mean duration, but the variance is very high, with durations from 10s of millions of years to 50000 years. "Clocklike regularity"? Sure, if
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If these were bad events, there would be obvious correlation to major extinction events. There simply isn't, and people have looked really hard (because it would be interesting if there was).
That is not exactly correct, because what is being posited is technological impact. 780k years ago there weren't any artificial electromagnetic fields around to be disrupted.
That is not to say that I am convinced there would be large impacts on devices which rely on electromagnetism, as the switch would be slow enough and diffuse enough that they would probably fall below most devices' noise thresholds. However, anything that did affect such devices would have major consequences these days, purely because w
Re:Not really worried. (Score:5, Insightful)
Doesn't rotating the device 180 degrees have the same effect? If it takes you 0.5 sec to turn a North-facing iPod into a South-facing iPod and it doesn't break it, just how fast a geomagnetic reversal do you have in mind?
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Re:Not really worried. (Score:5, Informative)
The earth's magnetic field is about half a gauss at the surface. It's weaker than the field generated by a refrigerator magnet. I think it's safe to say that the flip is not gonna destroy your electronics.
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If that's the case, why is this a cataclysm?
Don't worry (Score:5, Informative)
It really isn't. The problem itself is not the reversal itself, but the period inbetween, when the magnetic field will be very small or inexistent. The earth's magnetic field has the effect of diverting charged energetic particles emitted by the sun towards the poles. It's those particles entering the atmosphere that cause the northern lights. Without a magnetic field, they would penetrate more into the atmosphere, possibly causing harm to living beings.
However, this reversal will happen several hundred years from now. By that time, I'm sure that, if I'm alive, it will be because we will have some pretty advanced medicine, capable of handling the increased radiation effects.
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As I understand it, the earth's magnetic envelope, but even a weaker magnetic field means more radiation hits people, doesn't it? Of course, the next question is how much weaker? Increase cancer risk 1% on average or 25% increase in severe sunburn deaths? It could still be an issue.
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Re:Don't worry (Score:5, Informative)
Cell phones transmit at a relatively low frequency, which is called "non-ionizing".
Electromagnetic radiation is transmitted by particles called photons, each of which carry a fixed amount of energy, proportional to its frequency. Therefore, to transmit a given amount of power, it takes more low-frequency photons than high-frequency ones. There is a certain frequency, higher than what cell phones use, where the energy of a single photon is enough to break the chemical bonds that keep molecules together, that's what is called "ionization".
At lower, "non-ionizing" frequencies, you can send as much power as you want, you may cook the tissue, but the chemical bonds will not be broken in the same way, because the photons don't have the required energy.
The sun emits particles in a very wide range of energies, including ionizing ones. The charged particles with ionizing energy which are diverted by the earth's magnetic field are certainly more dangerous than any cell phone antenna.
The dangers of non-ionizing radiation have been the subject of debate, but one should be careful when judging the data. With high enough power, like in a microwave oven, there will be damage to living tissues, of course, but it's in an entirely different level from ionizing radiation, where a single photon is enough to break a molecule and, pick your worse nightmare, start a cancer or cause a mutation.
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Mutations that /don't/ lead to cancer seem rather unlikely to lead to systemic issues - sure, that one cell might be broken, but the others are doing fine.
Wrong - there still is a field (Score:2)
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That's the damn point: it isn't a cataclysm. It's been turned into one by a bunch of pseudoscientists to sell alarmist books and idiotic, overdramatized programs to the Discovery Channel. At most it might give us some spectacular aurora at low latitudes, increase cosmic rays at the surface by a measurable but biologically insignificant amount, mess up compasses and maybe a few satellites, and cause some geese and pigeons to fly in the wrong direction for a while.
The only true cataclysm here is that peopl
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take your CRT from the southern to northen hemisphere.
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Ask a climatologist what the largest influence on earth's climate is, and his answer will be "the earth's magnetosphere." It deflects the solar wind greatly; without this effect, the earth would be as arid as the moon, which has no magnetosphere.
This is bullshit.
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That's an interesting theory. I wonder what the rates of flux are of the atmosphere with and without the magnetic field in a planet the size of Earth or Mars. How long would it take for just this effect to leech out a significant portion of the atmosphere?
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No, but it may reek havoc on analogue navigational instruments, and the migration of many animals (there's a hypothesis that birds use the magnetic field to know where to go).
It's hard to tell what flip would do to modern society and the earth's ecosystem.
...but on the subject of our everyday compasses, they shouldn't be at all affected considering that they point to a lump of iron ore in Canada rather than the actual North Pole (hence a correction of ~-11/12 degrees when I go hiking in Harriman)
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Actually your compass points at the north magnetic pole, which actually moves and your correction will change with time. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_North_Pole [wikipedia.org]
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"the earth's ACTUAL magnetic north pole", and
"the non-magnetic, man-defined north pole of the globe"
It has to do with the north on your map not actually corresponding with the true, magnetic north pole. That is to say, exactly "up" on your map is not exactly "north", due to how the cartographer set it up. There are different magnetic deviations depending on where you are in the world and how your map system is set up, but I assure you that none of the magnetic devia
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The only reason I'd really be worried about the magnetic field flipping is that a changing magnetic field induces a current in a conductor.
Really? And the fact that the Earth's magnetic field keeps us protected from extremely harmful cosmic radiation doesn't even register with you?
I am not saying the switch would cause a disruption of this field, but I guess that could happen. And if did happen, depending on how long it would last, it could have catastrophic consequences. It may not wipe out life as we know it, but something major would happen, something less than pleasant.
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There would be an increase in radiation reaching the planets surface, so staying indoors a little more often during the switch over would be recommended. Also any solar flares that happened to discharge material towards the earth would cause a bit more damage, overall all nothing to dramatic.
The only real problem, the smallest critters, bacteria, algae, viruses and, fungi, the additional radiation load would likely trigger some disruptive mutations, which could be rather troublesome. Other than that, the
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There's a massive difference in the amount of cosmic radiation that reaches places like Australia as compared with the UK. I believe that in Australia they stave off massive continent wide catastrophe by wearing hats in the sun.
4 * 10-13 Hz (Score:5, Informative)
TFA does little to debunk what may be the biggest danger, and that is the disruption of the Van Allen radiation belt, and the protection that it provides to the Earth from cosmic rays. While I'm sure that the radiation belt would re-establish itself to match the "flipped" magnetic poles, it may not do so during the transition period. And this pole flipping may be quick in geological terms, but it may take a number of years, and during that time, part or all of the Earth may be bombarded with cosmic rays. Or, the distorted field may actually concentrate cosmic rays upon parts of the Earth many times what you'd find in space outside the belt. These cosmic rays would cause massive increases in cancer and genetic mutations in all species of plants and animals, and even a stack of tinfoil hats won't help. Much.
Increases in cancers would not be detected in the geological records, and periods of high radiation may explain things like the Cambrian Explosion, where many new species spontaneously appeared. If the field swaps by rotating from pole to pole, the radiation belt will probably just follow along, but if the poles swap by diminishing to zero and then building at the opposite pole, there will be a very dramatic change (and possible collapse) of the radiation belt that could very well affect life on the planet very dramatically (from our perspective). The scourge of AIDS killed 2.1 million people in 2007. That's
Of course, ancient calendars not withstanding, there's no reason to believe any of this is likely to happen during our lifetimes.
Lets see it... (Score:3, Funny)
I wanna see it flip and take it all with it.
Lets return to the earth, have half of us killed, and go back to hunting venison like we very well used to before some assholes started to chat about this "civilization" crap we are in right now.
Fuck that.
Back to the trees people, this stupid "modern society" thing didnt work.
Re:Lets see it... (Score:5, Funny)
Says the guy posting to Slashdot.
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I bow in signal of respect.
Re:Lets see it... (Score:4, Informative)
If we tried to live as hunter-gatherers, we'd need to kill off a whole lot more than half of us. World population is now something like 6.6 billion. We didn't reach 3 billion until 1961. In 4000 BC, about the time civilisation was really getting going in Egypt and Mesopotamia, the population of the world was more like 20 million. That's the kind of figure you're looking at for a world of hunter-gatherers. About the same as the population of New York city.
Re:Lets see it... (Score:5, Funny)
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Except for the problems of the victims, whose problems escalate rapidly before becoming completely irrelevant - they don't get solved!
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There's evidence that cannibalism leads to prion diseases (like http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_(disease) [wikipedia.org] ). So have a nice meal!
Whatever you do ... (Score:2)
don't eat the Soylent Green!
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Well think about that: in that world, no need to rescue wallstreet so that they can come back and fuck everyone in the world (yes, not just everyone in america but everyone IN THE WORLD) again.
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Lets return to the earth, have half of us killed, and go back to hunting venison like we very well used to before some assholes started to chat about this "civilization" crap we are in right now.
No need to wait for the flip ... move to Alaska, now.
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Have you ever heard about "you can solve everything through love" philosophy? I swear to you, it works much better in practice than a holocaust.
If you hate that civilization so much, why don't you just move into a fuckin' cave?
Learn to swim, or drown.
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And face it, losing would still be less painful than actually watching reality tv.
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Yeah, I heard something like that.
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Have you ever heard about "you can solve everything through love" philosophy?
I have.
I call it a lie.
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And, by the way, its people like you that make me feel grateful for Sarah Palin.
And i dont hate civilization. Im just pointing out that it doesnt work as it should. And it doesnt.
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Then why let it take away the control over your happiness?
I know c11n doesn't work. It can't bring you anything but what you would have otherwise; neither will it bring you happiness nor stop you from being happy. It's your own choice to be happy or not, and your own choice to let someone else choose for you.
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Thats why i advocate masturbation.
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> I swear to you, it works much better in practice than a holocaust.
Well if you only gave holocaust a chance...
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I remember when we came down from the trees. The girls *still* wanted to be "just friends"...
Get ready for it! (Score:5, Funny)
"we'll be exposed to the vast quantities of radiation blasting from the Sun; with a reversing magnetic field comes a weakening in the Earth's ability to deflect cosmic rays."
Finally, a use for our tinfoil hats!
Unknown (Score:4, Informative)
However, one can never be really sure... any data on effects of previous switches?
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Considering we have to look for evidence of the previous switches in three-quarter-of-a-million year old sediment, any data we have on effects is going to be open to interpretation. It's not like we had reporters back then.
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Can we not just ask someone in the RIAA? After all, their business model was developed around then.
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A magnetic-pole reversal kills off all the reporters??? How can we speed this thing up?
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The burst of solar wind, cosmic rays and all that crap might have no greater effect on the living beings themselves, but how about all our delicate electronic stuff that we are used to depend on?
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If you see a bird suddenly turning around, you'll know it's time to seek shelter.
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Lost, due to a hard drive failure, 780,000 years ago.
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Well, considering humans in almost modern form have lived through at least one pole reversal, and land live has lived through hundreds or thousands, cataclysm is pretty unlikely.
Hmmmm.... (Score:1)
Love the look in his eyes (Score:4, Funny)
The guy who runs the 26 ton ball of molten metal. That's a Mad Scientist gleam in the eyes if ever I saw one.
Ah, pay attention to the article ... (Score:1)
It's not just molten metal; it's molten SODIUM!
If you've ever seen a small chunk of pure sodium tossed into a sink full of water in a high school chemistry class ... and then think how much this guy has ... you'd have that look in your eyes as well.
He's probably planning to dump it into his neighbor's swimming pool when the experiment is finished.
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Re:Ah, pay attention to the article ... (Score:4, Informative)
If you've ever seen a small chunk of pure sodium tossed into a sink full of water in a high school chemistry class ... and then think how much this guy has ...
Here's a blog post with a couple of vids of sodium water reactions. [backofthebook.ca] The US military's post WWII disposal of sodium in a lake is particularly impressive.
Best quote ever (Score:5, Insightful)
Without GPS, our airliners will also plough into the ground
Goddamit man, we can't land without GPS!
Good thing Lindberg had GPS, otherwise he would've gotten lost like Earhart did when her GPS failed.
GPS approaches are actually relatively new and are just now in the past few years showing up on modern Jeppsen charts.
That being said, modern GPS based navigation is so sweet. Nothing is sweeter than jumping into a plane with a G1000 GPS based system, complete with XM weather and traffic warning systems and seeing it all on configurable glass panels. But if it fails there is always backup "classic" gauges one can use. And even if that fails there is ye olde grey matter.
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Re:Best quote ever (Score:5, Informative)
I build the navigation systems used in many commercial aircraft. Primary system is inertial, not GPS; input from multiple accelerometers is integrated to determine velocity and position.
Re:Best quote ever (Score:4, Informative)
I'm a software developer and I once picked up a few college textbooks on aerospace navigation, specifically ones related to control system design (state methods, optimal filtering/control, etc). and I have to say one thing - you sir are a God amongst mere mortals. To say it's tough is an understatement.
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My first job out of college (1987-90) was designing embedded controller hardware/firmware for inertial nav systems. Nothing quite as critical as keeping aircraft on track -- our systems were used to measure in-flight deformation of aircraft wings, and to track pipeline flows; nothing requiring real-time processing of the data. Back in those days, GPS was still classified; one of our platforms was built to take GPS signals as a calibration input; as I recall we didn't have a GPS receiver in house, so testi
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Let's see... A current commercial airliner will probably have all the following:
GPS type systems
Inertial reference systems (two primary, one backup, each system having internal redundancy as well, on the aircraft I deal with)
Maps and windows
Magnetic backup compass
Gyroscope-based instruments for attitude control etc
Radio to talk to air traffic control operators
Mk 1 Human Eyeball.
Oh, and pretty much all the above are at least once redundant, if not more.
So yeah, as the parent said, even if magnetic changes af
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Umm folks Zero velocity at the same time as Zero (relative) Altitude is not all that hard
(doing that and being able to use the same airframe again is a bit harder)
Listen (Score:5, Funny)
Just because I don't have a fancy "doctorate" or even "college education", doesn't mean you can just dismiss my theories! Einstein didn't go to college after all, look where he ended up!
I'm telling you, my theory is solid. I saw this show on the History Channel the other day that was talking about what kind of propulsion UFO's might use, and it came to me: What would happen if the Earth's magnetic field happened every 780,000 years and 300 days, exactly? That would mean it would happen again in November! Our only hope is to align every source of magnetic material in the world along north-south magnetic lines! I've already done this with my stove, fridge, and just to be safe my wireless network. I encourage all of you to do the same!
I am not crazy people! My scientific theories are backed up by some of the finest dramatization programs the Discovery Channel has to offer!
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We might have listened to you, but the people at UniverseToday have been staying at a Holiday Inn Express, so they're much better informed...
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It's all hopelessly out of date! (Score:2, Interesting)
The fact is that the last serious efforts to measure the Earth's magnetic field in the South Atlantic were terminated in the mid-1980's when the British government pulled the funding for their geomagnetic programme in the South Atlantic. Everything that's been speculated upon since then is postulated on their measurements of rapid ans significant weakening of the magnetic field in the South Atlantic... but nobody's been watching since the mid-80's.
So we don't really know.
Last time anybody bothered to look,
Re:It's all hopelessly out of date! (Score:5, Informative)
That's utter nonsense. The magnetic field is continuously monitored from orbit by all sorts of satellites. One of many such satellites is Ørsted [wikipedia.org]. There are papers all through the 1990s and 2000s that analyze the data from this and the others. People don't fund surface expeditions to study large-scale magnetic field variations because they've been largely superceded by satellite measurements. The only people interested in surface measurements are usually exploration geologists (e.g., looking for signs of sub-surface mineral deposits).
Nature won't be the cause. (Score:2)
I guarantee you, when we have this conversation again in heaven or hell, it was some retarded human in a position of power that killed us all.
Never underestimate the stupidity of humanity. A huge killer EMP would perhaps be a welcome relief.
Hidden objectives. (Score:2, Funny)
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Wouldn't that be kinda like firing torpedos at the Titanic just to make sure it stays sunk?
All we need is a lvl 86 mage (Score:2)
And let him cast Dispell. Should work against any "geomagnetic reversal" buff cast on the earth.
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03:45:12 = Dispel Fail: You fail to dispel Earthlol's geomagnetic reversal
03:45:13 = Dispel Fail: You fail to dispel Earthlol's geomagnetic reversal
03:45:15 = Dispel Fail: You fail to dispel Earthlol's geomagnetic reversal
Unfortunately "Earthlol" is a druid, and has points in subtlety.
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Since the Earth's magnetic field is affecting him, sounds like problem solved to me. And he's only gotta be 5th level!
Article makes unscientific conclusions. (Score:1)
The UniverseToday article repeatedly points out that there is no evidence to support the dooms day theories regarding geomagnetic reversal and admits to not knowing how geomagnetic reversal works.
"Again, we simply do not know."
"Again, there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this claim."
Then he says something most curious:
"So, already this doomsday theory falters in that geomagnetic reversal does not occur with "clockwork regularity," and it has no connection with solar dynamics. We are not due
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He isn't making claims. He's disputing claims that other have made.
By your reasoning we're "due" to spontaneously lose our left index fingers in the next generation because it's technically possible there's no evidence to suggest that we're not.
Reading... an elegant tool... (Score:2)
... for a more civilized times.
As can be seen from the diagram (left), magnetic reversal has occurred fairly chaotically in the last 160 million years. Long-term data suggests that the longest stable period between magnetic "flips" is nearly 40 million years (during the Cretaceous period over 65 million years BC) and the shortest is a few hundred years.
Some 2012 theories suggest that the Earth's geomagnetic reversal is connected to the natural 11-year solar cycle. Again, there is absolutely no scientific evidence to support this claim. No data has ever been produced suggesting a Sun-Earth magnetic polarity change connection.
So, already this doomsday theory falters in that geomagnetic reversal does not occur with "clockwork regularity," and it has no connection with solar dynamics. We are not due a magnetic flip as we cannot predict when the next one is going to occur, magnetic reversals occur at seemingly random points in history.
Well you know what. Back at'cha bub. There is no evidence to support your theories ether. There is no evidence stating geomagnetic reversal *isn't* related to the solar cycle. And there is no evidence stating we are not due for such a reversal.
See graph on the FA.
BTW... just to clarify - something "random" can not have a 11-year cycle. Integer described cycle is NOT RANDOM.
Ergo... no connection or even correlation between the 11-year solar cycle and magnetic shifts.
Also... being "due" [aol.com] for something implies prediction.
As of yet - we are not able to predict random events. Even ones with 160 million years of previous cases.
Just because there is a minuscule chance of me being hit by a meteor right now...
OK... nothing ha
Offtopic: Can we mesure the weak magnet field? (Score:1)
During those periods of time, weakening of the main field reveals "virtual poles," regions of strong magnetism within the shallow core field. For example, Singer says, "If you were on Tahiti when those eruptions were taking place, your compass needle would point to not the North Pole, not the South Pole, but Australia."
Would it be possible to measure this magnet field now? e.g. the direction of this magnet field?
If so wouldn't it enable us to do predict our position on earth without stars/sun and time as in the old days, or GPS as used these days?
Just a random thought, I don't know if we can distinguish the two fields (which we probably can't apart from strength), or/and if the weak field is too weak to be measured. Does anybody have a clue?
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each individual iron atom was said to have its own tiny field in one lecture I had... I would think it would certainly be possible to have a "Secondary field" but how do we tell if it's pernament, or just an effect of the iron atoms lining up in large groups, without the "straightening" influence of the main field.. I have no clue. And I'm not sure we know how that all works yet either(why a secondary field, but no tertiary field? is the secondary field a mechanism that happens in the mantle, but just the
Fearmongering (Score:2)
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Debunking Doomsday Myths? (Score:4, Interesting)
The article is actually a rant against the 2112 Millenialism of a particular strain of people that have imprinted the mayan great cycle myth at a precognitive level through the influence of McKenna (whether they know it or not). At best, the article says that it's not very probable that a reversal will happen in our lifetime and if it does, "satellites may malfunction and migrating birds may become confused" but that's about it. Without a shred of proof given to that. It could presumably be much worse, so we should probably at least look at it.
though I do concur that the world probably won't end dec 21 2012.
However it also makes reference to a type of potentially catastrophic type event, a 'polar shift', which is really rare. Of course, all that means is that it is eventually inevitable. So there's another ticking clock. Has anyone come up with a clock incorporating all the known doomsday events that are actually going to happen sooner or later? e.g. catastrophic asteroid, polar shift, super solar event, whatnot? Would be interesting.
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Um, I thought that was the Temple of Syrinx and Rush.
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Right, sorry. Should be 2012, not 2112, the mayan cycle ends in 2012. Would have been cool if Rush had picked 2012 but I suspect that was too near term to be of value for their storyline. What is very strange is that I thought I had corrected that error before posting. Just goes to show that even if you do error detection & correction errors can get through.
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Yes, you should always bet (everything you have) AGAINST the world ending...
If it doesn't end, you win!
If it does end, who's going to collect?
If you best FOR doomsday, you lose, and you walk around looking like the world's biggest idiot for the next 60 years... ala many cults and charlatans. [wikipedia.org]
Not just the Mayans (Score:1)
The reversals frozen in the mid-Alantic ... (Score:2)
out flowings aren't due to flips of the Earth's magnetosphere?
mmm... Geologists have been claiming magnetic flips since Warner. From the National Research Council of Canada:
http://www.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/eng/education/astronomy/tapping/2007/2007-05-29.html [nrc-cnrc.gc.ca]
The Atlantic Ocean is getting a few centimetres wider each year. Molten rock is emerging from the Earth's mantle at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, providing new seabed, and as it solidifies, records the magnetic field. As we move away from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, we