Russian Invasion of Georgia Might Jeopardize Space Station

mknewman writes "Sen. Bill Nelson, one of NASA's biggest proponents on the Hill, is openly questioning how Russia's military intervention in Georgia will affect our access to the space station after the Shuttle is retired in 2010. Currently, NASA is able to use Soyuz vehicles for crew access and lifeboat operations thanks to an exemption from the Iran Non-Proliferation Act. The exemption expires in 2011, only one year after the Shuttle is due to head to the museums."

What?

The summary makes absolutely no sense.

Can anyone shed light on what is going on?

Re:What?

Ok, here goes. Most of the international community thinks that Russia is either over reacting or taking advantage of Goergia's internal conflict with a Goergian province that declared independence. This may lead to repercussions, possibly including not renewing the exemption to the non-proliferation treaty. If the internation community chooses not to renew that exemption, based on what the summary says it sounds like Russia will not be able to launch Soyuz vehicles after the exemption expires.

Keep in mind that this is based on the summary and a quick look at what Wikipedia has to say about the conflict and it's repercussions. Therefore, I might be completely wrong so this should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Re:What?

I'm not sure that even not renewing the exemption (i admit I have no idea the details of it) will do that much. A lot of countries have broken treaties without blinking an eyelid. I can't see much being done against Russia, except issuing diplomatic statements. The UN will be paralysed by Russia's veto, and I can't see China being in a rush to side against Russia (or side for it). Russia and China (perhaps with Brazil and India - the BRIC countries) could just go it alone - they have a lot of the world's population in them.

I think the Georgians (or at least the president) were completely foolish to try and invade when Putin was at the Olympics and think that he wouldn't do anything. Compounding it is the fact that they seemed to be carrying out (from what I gather from the BBC) seems like ethnic cleansing by firing on the civilian population, and then killing Russian troops in the process. They burnt their bridges to some of their possible allies, who were also allies who being militarily over-extended aren't really in a position to help.

What I think will happen is that giving it a few weeks people will forget about this. The whole situation will be framed as Ossetians (sp?) are just like Kosovo - they have a right to be independent, and with Russian influence in the region they will eventually become re-united with Russia. The issue of the ISS is just a distraction - everything will stay the same.

Re:What?

Clinton signed the Iran Non Proliferation Act [armscontrol.org] penalizing any country doing weapons-related business with Iran. Russia has been selling missiles and nuclear fuel which meant we couldn't do business with them. Hence the exception.

The exception was a tough sell the first time and NASA concerned it's dead in the water when time comes to renew it.

priorities man!

Shit, if germany decided to kill the jews again, CmdrTaco would be wondering how this affects his BMW's warranty.

Re:priorities man!

To be fair he did get the extended warranty protection, and that shit ain't cheap.

Re:priorities man!

No, if you're more passive you get to use them. You get mod points more if you read stories but don't post in them (giving them to people who post in every story they read doesn't make sense, since they will never be able to use them). I usually post in stories, and rarely get mod points. When I'm busy and only have time to read a few comments in a story and not to post, I get them all the time.

I doubt this will really matter

I doubt this will really matter in the end. Especially long term. The Russians will likely leave by the end of the week as soon as the Georgian military is dismantled. In the end, Georgia started this, and really, what effect did the crushing of the Prague spring, the Hungarian uprising of 56 etc really have on relations between the west and Russia?

And as others have pointed out, the Georgians started it with an area of effect attack on a city populated by ethnic Russians. If there is trouble with the ISS, it will be for other reasons.

Russia has ultimate weapon.

...somehow since then we aren't allowed to piss them off.

Russia has the greatest weapon of our time: oil. They have more than the Saudis. Nobody is going to piss them off and disrupt their supply.

Re:Russia has ultimate weapon.

This is exactly it, and it's even more true for Europe. Europe is extremely dependent on Russia for their energy needs. That's why the reaction has been relatively quiet compared to the usual shrill screams that they have when a large country runs roughshod over a smaller one (even one that might have deserved it). It's the same reason they kowtow to the Arab states, and it's the same reason they can't seem to find it in themselves to do anything serious about Iran (notice the comma - I know Iran isn't an Arab state).

You can call it pragmatic or whatever, but I laugh a little every time I hear some smug European government official tell us how he or she is "principled" when it comes to foreign relations. The principle they're practicing ain't the same one they're preaching. The principle is, of course, "advance my country by any means possible". (Which is how it's always been, really.) The Russians and Chinese, however much I dislike their governments, at least tend to be up front about it.

Re:Russia has ultimate weapon.

...somehow since then we aren't allowed to piss them off.

Russia has the greatest weapon of our time: oil. They have more than the Saudis. Nobody is going to piss them off and disrupt their supply.

Oil is what the Russia/Georgia conflict is actually about! There's lots of oil and gas in the Caspian Sea and central Asia. There are a couple of ways to get it, but two of the most important ones are:

1: through Kazakhstan and Russia
2: through Azerbaidjan, Georgia and Turkey

There's your conflict, including the reason why the US and EU want Russia out of Georgia.

Re:Russia has ultimate weapon.

Oil is a big part of it, but it's hardly the only element. The real cause of it is that a reascendant Russian Empire is telling all the fledgling statelets that broke off during a decade of political and economic chaos after the collapse of the Communist Dynasty are being reigned back in. This is a pattern of behavior for Russia that is centuries old now. It has long viewed every region with Slavic populations as being either an integral part of Mother Russia or a client state. This was the case under the Muscovite Princes, under the Russian Czars and under the Communists (and in particularly under Stalin and the later Soviet leaders).

Oil certainly is a motivator, but I'm not even sure it's the main one. We're dealing with cultural and political forces and ideals that survived the Tatars, basically foreign rule under German noblemen (and in Catherine the Great's case, noblewoman), the upheavals of the late 19th century, the revolution and the civil war, the Bolshevik takeover, the harsh reign of Stalin and the inept rule of his successors, and even the near collapse of central authority after the fall of the Soviet Empire. It is has been a basic tenet of Russian foreign policy for centuries that wherever you find Slavs, they ultimately should owe their allegiance to the Muscovite Princes (whatever form that might take at any particular moment in time). Unfortunately, in a world of petroleum-dominated economics, we tend to think of things in terms of dollars and cents, and yet one should never underestimate the power of nationalism. Oil is simply the current coin by which Russia can exert its muscle, but the situation is no different than it was twenty years ago or two hundred years ago.

Russia may be forced to release its hold on some of the Western Slavic peoples like the Poles, Czechs, Slovaks and Ukrainians (the first three have long been more Western European in culture and religion, the latter is of greater pain to the Russian identity, many seeing the Ukraine as an organic part of Russia), but you can be goddamned sure that everywhere else where there is some sort of ethnic Russian minority or some pro-Russian Slavic population we're not likely going to be able to have as much luck.

Re:When push comes to shove

Yeah, US foreign policy has been pretty much spineless when dealing with Russia since Reagans day...

I know it's fashionable to rail against the US, but in truth the European countries have shared this shortcoming due to their addiction to Russian oil.

Economic realities drive foreign policy for most countries in the world. We only manage to stand up in righteous indignation when we've got nothing really to lose. It's why we (eventually) were willing to isolate Apartheid South Africa, but never took any measures of consequence against China for {choose any one of many offenses}.

Re:When push comes to shove

Yeah, US foreign policy has been pretty much spineless when dealing with Russia since Reagans day...

Yeah, I'm sure glad we had the foresight to arm and fund the muhajadin in Afghanistan. I mean, that went great and NEVER AFFECTED US EVER AGAIN...

Re:When push comes to shove

just so long as you realize these 'freedom fighters' of south osetia had won a majority election, which was then overturned by the Georgia government by holding a special election where the polls were guarded by armed guards to 'elect' a pro-Georgia government.

just so you realize only 28% of the population of south osetia is actually Georgians and that the entire reason for this war is that Georgia wants the tax revenue on all the freight lines that run from Russia to Georgia through south osetia.

yeah,yeah russia made the population of south osetia russian citizens so they could invade goergia, and possibly grab a significant portion of their oil fields, but it's not like georgia are good guys either.

Re:moral decline

"which lead to other nations breaking those same rules, .."

Our Cold War opponents broke them at will in the recent past anyway, because it served them well and they could.

"Rules" are window dressing to amuse the earnest and naive people who believe in them. Power is what matters, because to the extent one has power one can make up and enforce rules.

Re:NO wonder nerds have a bad rep

I can't believe that a slight pertubation to the timeline of the hopeless ISS is what really troubles nerds when two countries are at war. Seriously..!

Or, you could look at it this way. Overall human progress is being delayed because two countries are involved in a pissing and "my-dick-is-bigger-than-yours" contest. Or, similar to what Ernest Rutherford said, we've got more important things to worry about than another stupid war.

Re:NO wonder nerds have a bad rep

Is that sarcasm? Things like nuclear power and landing on the moon came out of a "my dick is bigger than yours" contest between countries.

Re:NO wonder nerds have a bad rep

That's right! No web site, anywhere, should ever talk about anything besides people dying, because people are always dying and it's always the most important thing happening.

Sheesh. You realize humans are capable of paying attention to more than one thing at a time?

There is a big problem actually

Due to the desire of the US to use the space shuttle to service the ISS, it was placed in a much lower orbit then would otherwise have been the case. Certainly it was much lower then most interested parties wanted.

As a result of this it is constantly being slowed by friction caused by contact with the outer atmosphere. We are talking very slight friction, but at the speed of the ISS that slight friction is enough to bring it into a lower orbit over time.

One of the main worries after the challenger disaster was that space shuttle had been used to correct this reduction in orbit periodically by firing its thrusters whilst docked. Instead they had to use Soyuz capsules to try and do the same thing.

Its bad either way, but if there is tension and both countries stop going there, the orbit will deteriorate to the point where only a specialised mission to boost it would work. That may not be possible, or indeed successful.

While it would have to drop a long way to re-enter the atmosphere and burn up, it wouldn't have to drop too far to start being prohibitively complicated and expensive to get it back into its normal orbit.

Re:There is a big problem actually

The European Automated Transfer Vehicle [wikipedia.org] can also re-boost the station. If I remember correctly, even more than the shuttle can.

Re:US manned spaceflight ends in 2010

The US can't afford it any more.

What bullshit! The US doesn't want to pay it any more. It can certainly afford it. Bringing NASA up to Apollo levels of funding would be a virtually unnoticeable drop in the current federal budget.

Re:American planning in action

Russia thinks ahead and plans ahead.

I believe the phrase you're looking for is, "Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan".
- Adm. Painter, The Hunt for Red October

Ahhh, Permanent UN Security Council members and their toys...

Re:Russia's ressponse was reasonable and justified

now please explain to me how georgia could kill only 6 people by shelling a sleeping capital city at midnight?

also of note is the fact, that georgia borders chechnya where lots of russian troops are waiting for any action.

Re:Russia's ressponse was reasonable and justified

Did you get these numbers from a bubble gum machine?

There were about a dozen of Russian peace keeper troops dead, along with over 1500 civilians, all of which died either during the "hailstorm" barrage from Georgia side, or directly by Georgian troops... But who cares about civilians, right?