Schoolboy Corrects NASA's Math On Killer Asteroid

spiracle writes "A German schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, has revised NASA's figures for the chances that the Apophis asteroid will hit earth. Apparently if the asteroid hits a satellite in 2029, its path could be diverted enough to cause it to collide with Earth on the next orbit, in 2036. NASA had calculated the chances as 1 in 45,000 but the 13-year-old, in his science project, made it 1 in 450. NASA agreed." Update: 04/16 16:47 GMT by Z : This is not entirely accurate, it turns out — more details.

Not peer reviewed.

Not peer reviewed.

Other news stories on this

NASA previously estimated the chance "Apophis" the asteroid would strike earth in 2027 was 1 in 45,000. But a german schoolboy, Nico Marquardt, pointed out that NASA overlooked the probability the asteroid would strike one of the 40,000 sattelites orbiting Earth and enter a new solar orbit intersecting Earth in 2036. A german newspaper reports that NASA now concurs the chance this will happen is about 1 in 450. If the 200 billion tonne ball of iridium and iron stikes the planet then it's literally light's out for earth: 800 foot tidal waves followed by an indefinite period of dust cloud covered darkness, not to mention metal vapor in the atmosphere. The original Slashdot discussion [slashdot.org] was in 2007 when the odds were better. At that time it was known that there was a small risk of a gravitational slingshot dropping it into the 2036 collisional orbit, however, to do so the asteroid had to pass through an improbable 400 meter wide strike zone to be properly deflected, as described in 2006 in Popular Science [popularmechanics.com] from 2006. Today's announcement of the new finding is here [physorg.com]and here [yahoo.com].

Friday the 13th

By the way, it passes by the earth in 2027 on friday the 13th. If it hit's it will hit in the pacific ocean. So California may get wet. The energy content is said to be 26,000 Hiroshimas which is not that much but recent calculation suggest is more than enough to darken the earth.

Re:Friday the 13th

> 26,000 Hirshimas

So a little less than 1 Mt St Helens then.

His peers

Still, no one has scrutinized the boy's work for math errors.

Well surely we can find another school boy to peer review it.

Re:His peers

Thoughts of another schoolboy:
"But if we make it strike the Earth and not one of those sattelites in 2029, the probability of it striking the Earth in 2036 is NIL. NASA agreed."

Re:Not peer reviewed.

You are right that NASA has not updated it's site since 2006.

Just to be clear, the Impact Risk Page [nasa.gov] is kept current (pretty much to the day). You'll see the link for Apophis if you scroll down a little. If the odds of impact jumped by a factor of 100, this would be one of the first places to show it.

Oh, greeeaaaat.

From TFA:

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

And thanks to little Nico, we now know that the likelihood of this happening is one thousand times greater than we thought.

Thanks, little buddy! You're a regular ray of sunshine.

Re:Oh, greeeaaaat.

one hundred, do you by chance work at NASA? :P

Oblig.

Never tell me the odds!

Damn him!

Little bastards gonna get us all killed!

Re:Damn him!

Now lets burn down the observatory so this can never happen again!

Unix 1 - Humanity 0

And the 2038k problem solves itself, thus vindicating Ken Thompson and pessimists everywhere.

Re:Unix 1 - Humanity 0

2038 years should be enough for anybody

Either NASA was using FORTRAN again...

...or they forgot to do the metric conversion. Again.

Dang

I hope that kid won the science competition he was in!

"... and for my science project, I proved NASA wrong and made a discovery of potentially epic proportions..."

Kindof tough to follow that one.

Hang on ...

... it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes ...

If this thing weighs 200 billion tonnes, it seems surprising that hitting a satellite is going to divert its course very significantly (unless that satellite is the moon). And:

NASA and Marquardt agree that ... [it] will crash into the Atlantic ocean

Ah, so there's only a 1 in 450 chance of it hitting earth, but we know which ocean it will land in if it does (7 years after it hits the satellite).

Next week: 13 year old boy discovers new chemical reaction in which a combination of scientifically illiterate PR bunnies and sub-editors produces large quantities of bullshit.

Re:Hang on ...

Right, but the asteroid has hit a satellite between now and then, a satellite which has, apparently, increased its chance of hitting earth from 1 in 45000 to 1 in 450, which means that its trajectory has changed fairly significantly. In particular, its orbital period has probably changed, which makes it seem unlikely that we can say anything accurate about an impact time 7 years later. There's only a four hour window to hit the Atlantic.

Not only that, but the Atlantic only covers one fifth [wikipedia.org] of the earth's surface, which means that even if, despite all the uncertainty, we knew exactly what time it would hit the earth, the Atlantic would cover at most about one half of the target. So I very much doubt that anyone who knows what they are doing would be prepared to "agree" that it will hit the Atlantic.

So I smell bullshit in the science lab. To be fair, it's possible that a bad translation from the original German article was required as a catalyst.

I want to see NASA's acknowledgement he is right

This does not sound right. The article states that Apophis has a mass of 200 billion tonnes. How would colliding with a satellite which except for the ISS max out at about 20 tonnes do anything at all to Apophis' orbit? Forget the link to the wire story where is a link to NASA statement that the impact chance is really 1 in 450?

Original article

Here is the original article [www.bild.de], in German, from the German newspaper. It looks like a professor helped him (Professor Spahn from Potsdam University). Bild is semi-infamous in Europe for sensationalizing stories but at least we know that the boy is real if nothing else...

Um, was this by any chance an April Fools paper?

Let's see. We begin with the original source of data, "telescopic observations." Good, but perhaps a bit, shall we say, lacking in nine-digit precision. Then we add the element of a bright schoolboy (always a favorite in the papers) doing something big and being validated (instantly!) by "NASA" (not a person, but apparently the entire agency). Oh, and "NASA" told "ESA", but we still don't have the identity of anyone other than the putative schoolboy.

So far, doing well.

Then we hit the big problems. First, we have the scare factor of "40,000" satellites surrounding Earth. Most of which, actually, are in LEO, with a few more in geosynchronous orbit. Which makes the space around the Earth only about 99.999% empty space, rather than a few more nines. As it turns out, space is big.

But it sounds good to imply that somehow there's this asteroid belt around the earth, and that the "killer" asteroid might hit a satellite.

Well, WHICH ONE? They have a lot of different masses, they are going in different directions, and we pretty much have to get a specific momentum change in the right direction in order to get just the right perturbation. Hitting a small piece of space junk is one thing, but the variation in weight of those "40,000" satellites is orders of magnitude. And that makes a big difference in orbital perturbation, even if the difference in orbital velocity is small compared to the velocity of the asteroid. We're talking about a subtle effect here.

And let's not figure in things like elastic collisions, off-center collisions, pieces flying off, or anything else. Nope, it's gonna happen perfectly, just like that seven-ball four-cushion bank shot we all can hit again and again.

Heck, they even called the pocket. Right into the Atlantic, after an orbit measuring in the decades. Now I will grant that the orbit is pretty well known, but again, that little "satellite assist" must be just precise as heck.

A nice touch gives us the "destroy both coasts and darken the world indefinitely." While it's good to be so certain, couldn't they be more specific about the method of destruction? Seeing as how they apparently know everything else, and all.

And finally, we have the 450:1 odds. Not 500:1, and certainly not 1000:1, but exactly 450. Cool. About as believable as my old homework excuses, but infinitely cooler. Can you say "significant figures"? I knew you could.

I think it's what you get when you let AFP (my source of news of the world for sure) loose in spring.

Re:Damn zeros

I guess NASA was using MS Excel to do their calculations.

Re:Damn zeros

I guess NASA was using MS Excel to do their calculations.

Or faced political pressure to predict something other than a fairly decent chance of doom. I mean really: does anyone think a 13-year-old outsmarted every scientist at NASA?

Re:No suprise here...

And this observation is applicable for exactly what reason? Are you claiming that NASA management is screwing up the calculations? Or are you just talking out of your ass and trying to insinuate that NASA is always incompetent in whatever it does?

Btw, in case you are not aware, the NEO office is at JPL--not JSC. And JPL is run by Caltech for NASA--not directly by NASA.

Now that we have that cleared up you should feel free to continue your bullshitting and insinuating via hearsay.

Re:DOUBLE OH-NOES!!!

Don't worry; with the skies darkened, they will have no source of energy.
Oh, wait...

Better add Keannu Reaves to the 2029 roster.