Sim Epidemic 130
Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"
CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:5, Funny)
"Well then who's developing it?"
"Yes."
"I mean the group's name."
"WHO."
"The group developing it."
"WHO."
"The software program."
"WHO."
"The simulation..."
"WHO is developing the simulation!"
"I'm asking YOU who's developing the simulation."
"That's the group's name."
/ etc
Shouldn't this be modded down? (Score:4, Funny)
Re:Shouldn't this be modded down? (Score:2)
Just making sure.
Re:CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:5, Funny)
"No, Yes"
"Who?"
"No, though I did see them live once"
"Um.. who?"
"Yeah, they were pretty good"
"So who was it you saw last night?"
"Yes"
"Who, damnnit?"
"No, Yes. Then I came home and watched THEM! and a couple of episodes of Dr Who before I read that article about the software by the WHO"
"Um.. I think something's broken in your head. I'm going over here now."
Dude! (Score:2)
Sweet, what does mine say?
Dude! What does mine say?
Sweet!! What does mine say?
Dude!! What does mine say?
Sweet!!! What does mine say?
Re:CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:2)
Well, things have progressed from the 80s. Or was his literature more up-to-date?
Finally (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Finally (Score:1, Funny)
Run into a village and devour villagers: tummy rub.
Help a drowning villager: ruthless bitchslap session.
Phew (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Phew (Score:4, Funny)
Rule the earth today! (Score:1)
To me at least the whole project reminds me of another, which has free software to construct even better simulations (multiple viruses at once) - and it allows you to rule the earth at the same time!
See
http://pubserver.freeciv.org/viewgame.phtml?game=3 74250 [freeciv.org]
for an example, and
http://pubserver.freeciv.org/query.phtml?minplayer s=12&minturns=200 [freeciv.org]
for a couple more.
Re:Phew (Score:2)
Re:Phew (Score:3, Insightful)
Since this is presented as a tool on which to base political policy, I am quite alarmed.
While you are making a joke, this actually brings into question several of the assumptions u
Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)
Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.
Numb3rs! (Score:2)
Re: Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)
I'd argue against the 'not very useful'. These models may not provide accurate predictions for real outbreaks, but may improve the insights into the variables involved, and how things interact.
In the case of a real outbreak, authorities may take measures like release public warnings, quarantine certain areas/building, ask people to avoid certain activities for a while, etc.
Will that slow down the outbreak? Will it confine casualties to a certain area? Can a measure help to lower mortality rates?
With a real outbreak, that sort of data is crucial. If you know how to slow down the spread of a disease, you buy time for healthcare workers. Time to track down infected people, time to treat people before incubation period expires, etc. Keeping the number of casualties down, may avoid a mass panic. So having some knowledge about the variables involved can make a big difference, and save countless lives.
So these models may be pretty helpless for predicting exact numbers, but still useful anyway.
Re: Problems with models (Score:2, Insightful)
Furthermore (Score:3, Insightful)
1) Vectors (i.e. sexually transmitted/blood-based infections like AIDS will behave differently than airborn-short-distance illnesses like SARS). This
2) Contagious exposure time: Ebola will be far less dangerous than HIV because it is much more quickly progressing.
These parameters will change the outcomes of the simulation.
A simulated epidemic, not an epidemic of simulations
Re:Problems with models (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:Problems with models (Score:3, Insightful)
Sexualy transmitted epidemics like 'the AIDS epidemic' make for difficult modles because people's sexual behavior has changed dramatically from 1950 - the present. Like you said, so many factors there.
If they did this, it would be nice if it were possi
dl it? (Score:1)
Re:dl it? (Score:1)
Re:Good for AIDS in Africa research. (Score:2)
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=uncircumci
Re:Good for AIDS in Africa research. (Score:2, Interesting)
Two words (Score:2, Funny)
Her Name is Ann (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Her Name is Ann (Score:2)
Re:Her Name is Ann (Score:1)
Re:Her Name is Ann (Score:3, Funny)
Wait till this gets out...
How about giving those scientists (Score:2)
But, this is SLASHDOT... (Score:5, Interesting)
Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.
Perhaps it should read something like:
To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....
Re:But, this is SLASHDOT... (Score:1)
Re:Moderators: GET A CLUE! (Score:2)
Zombies (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Zombies (Score:1, Informative)
I like this one better
Alternate Uses (Score:5, Funny)
Marketing (particularly the viral type)
Political meme simulation
Catching terrorists and other criminals through investigating their social linkage
Pharmacological demand forecasting
All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not...
Re:Alternate Uses (Score:2)
like using this simulator to figure out what sort of person would be an ideal target to infect if you wanted to start a bioterrorism campaign...
Re:Alternate Uses (Score:2)
Well they got their practice in very early with smallpox and the Native Americans... so I wouldn't put it past them.
Re:Alternate Uses (Score:1)
Hasn't this been done?
http://www.extremedemocracy.com/chapters/Chapter%
So when? (Score:2)
Mod (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Guaranteed to be modded down but... (Score:2)
Re:Guaranteed to be modded down but... (Score:1)
This will definately prevent trillions.
But... I don't necesarily that I need a good pandemic right very this second. I don't really hold on to life desprately, but I'm not all for death either. So here we are.
Can I use this to...? (Score:2)
-S
The Sims Epidemic (Score:1)
I read the headline... (Score:1)
Re:I read the headline... (Score:1)
Word order designed for dupe (Score:1, Funny)
End-user version (Score:1)
Just wait... (Score:4, Funny)
The AIDS version (Score:3, Insightful)
The current simulator has a model of Portland in it. A mod for San Francisco is an obvious next step.
Most efficient vectoring scheme? (Score:1, Interesting)
If I were a terrorist and wanted to start off a really good plague with something new, nasty, and specially engineered, I always thought handing out a few infected 20 dollar bills at various interstate highway Burger Kings or MacDonalds would be very effective.
Every car that comes after you becomes a new vector! And heading all over the place!
Re:Most efficient vectoring scheme? (Score:1, Funny)
Re:Most efficient vectoring scheme? (Score:2)
Rather than handing out 20 dollar bills which may be suspicious, just get a job at a McDonalds Drive Thru. Bonus points if it's near an airport.
Re:Most efficient vectoring scheme? (Score:2)
where can the shmo's get it? (Score:2, Funny)
Direct links (Score:2)
htt
Links and research papers (Score:5, Informative)
Here's a link to the general web page at LANL for Dynamic Simulation Science [lanl.gov], which also includes information on things like simulation of transportation networks.
A google scholar search [google.com] turns up a few interesting-looking research papers:
Structural and Algorithmic Aspects of Massive Social Networks [google.com] (Eubank et al, 2004)
Understanding Large-Scale Social and Infrastructure Networks: ASimulation-Based Approach [google.com] (Barrett et al)
BioWar: A City-Scale Multi-Agent Network Model of Weaponized Biological Attacks [google.com]
Newly released expansion (Score:1)
That's why... (Score:1, Funny)
So we can all play EpiSims!
My version... (Score:4, Funny)
'up'
19.40 - You are in your parents hall. You hear voices to the east.
'east'
19.45 - The room is full of people. You are likely to catch the plague.
'mingle'
19.50 - Your aunt kisses you.
'use handkerchief'
19.55 - You feel dizzy
'South'
20.00 - You are in the kitchen. You have caught the plague. You feel very hot.
'South'
20.05 - You are in the garden. You are dead.
Ooooh, Terrorists! (Score:2)
Re:Ooooh, Terrorists! (Score:2)
Re:Ooooh, Terrorists! (Score:2)
Re:Ooooh, Terrorists! (Score:2)
Am I alone in thinking.... (Score:1)
I am sorry for having spread this addictive agent to you if you haven't been previously exposed.....
Ann vs. Bob (Score:4, Interesting)
The connectivity of people lies on a 2-D spectrum of distance and numerousity. Highly connected, highly-travelled people will play a much greater role in spreading the disease than typically-connected, less mobile people. Given the incubation delay and delays in reporting of an epidemic, the Bobs of the world will have done their damage long before the government realizes the danger and closes the airports.
Epidemic@home? (Score:2)
When will Sims Epidemic: The Urbz come out? (Score:1)