Astronomers Upset About Asteroid Panic 314
DrMorpheus writes "According to the New Scientist, astronomers are horrified by press scares over asteroids - including the recent furore over QQ47 - which briefly had a one-in-a-million chance of crashing into our planet in 2014. So much so that they are toning down the scale they use to rate the threat posed by asteroids in an attempt to discourage journalists from covering potential collisions. Some even want the way asteroids are assessed to be completely overhauled."
I know people get hysterical easily, but... (Score:5, Insightful)
Umm... what commotion exactly? I know it got some coverage on a slow news day, but seriously, was anyone actually worried about this?
W
Re:I know people get hysterical easily, but... (Score:2)
No one was worried, the astronomers were just sick of the myriads of reporters calling to ask for The Story.
Re:I know people get hysterical easily, but... (Score:2, Funny)
Re:I know people get hysterical easily, but... (Score:5, Funny)
Why take a chance, ya know?
Oh, it will definitely happen... (Score:3, Funny)
You were distracted . . . (Score:4, Funny)
Or was it Johnny Cash and John Ritter?
Nothing to feel bad about. Most people didn't read about the discovery of those bipedal sapient weasels in Burma because of all the ruckus over Bob Hope dying.
Stefan
Re:You were distracted . . . (Score:5, Funny)
This is old news. We discovered lawyers a long time ago.
It's their own fault. (Score:5, Funny)
Spoiler... (Score:5, Funny)
Oops! Shouldn't have posted this... now the National Inquirer will have fodder to run with this overly-used story for another 10 years.
I'll start worrying about the accuracy of asteroid collision prediction after they manage to figure out how to predict rain 3 days from now with better than 70% accuracy. 8/
Re:Spoiler... (Score:5, Insightful)
On the other hand we are able to predict the position of a lot of stellar objects far into the future with a quite astonishing precision. And people were able to do so already 3000 years ago, for instance in a region that is now called Iraq.
If an astronomer tells me, that the collision of a specified object with Earth within the next 50 years has a probability of X, I believe him more than a meterologist who tells me, that it will rain with the probability of X in the next 5 hours.
Weather forecasts (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Spoiler... (Score:4, Interesting)
A while back I read an article (I don't remember where) which explained that the comets in the highest eccentric orbits are only moving a couple of meters per second at the apogee. The tiniest perturbations at this point, including gravitational pulls from nearby stars, drastically affects the actual path the comet will take the next time it swoops through the solar system. (The disturbances get proportionally amplified as the comet accelerates from a few m/s to 30000 m/s or so.) The net effect is that these comets seem to follow a random unpredictable path on each orbit.
Of course, this doesn't really matter that much because we can't detect the comets at that distance, and the orbits are longer than a human lifetime. I just think it's interesting how our planet's long term fate may depend on the tiniest forces tugging on some comet.
Any attention is good (Score:5, Interesting)
Re:Any attention is good (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Any attention is good (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Any attention is good (Score:5, Funny)
Re:Any attention is good (Score:3, Funny)
Damn right! It has never been the same since Ogg the scientist discovered how to make flint hand-axes.
notifications? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:notifications? (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:notifications? (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:notifications? (Score:4, Interesting)
America has great infastructure thanks to scaremongering of the cold war. There are parallel pipelines through most of the country, there are very good roads in places that could never justify the cost of an Interstate highway. The highways are there only because of the threat of the evil commies back years ago and the pipelines are a result of parinoia of Japanese spys from WW2. If the congress gets confused enough about the issue there might be some money to fund it but right now I'm guessing over 75% of congress thinks that "God will not let this happen to us".
Yes we do. (Score:2)
Now, once the public starts demanding proper funding for watching out for these things, and determining what to do, then they can quite down.
Re:notifications? (Score:2)
Kobe Bryant? The California recall? Criticism of the President for not finding the weapons that the bad guys really really really really doesn't want us to find?
Reporters: The Sky is Falling, The Sky is Falling! (Score:5, Funny)
Scientists: STFU!
Reporters: Aw, damn.
Hack your wall (Score:5, Funny)
Ha! That was easy! Surprisingly you use the exact same password as I do! What are the odds?! Needless to say I changed it.
Torino scale's OK; media are the problem (Score:5, Insightful)
Having a 1 on the Torino scale [nasa.gov] is kind of like having a Blue on the Terrorism Threat Scale, or a DEFCON 4 instead of 5. It's kind of cute but it's not very meaningful.
Changing the scale won't change the sensationalist, advertising-powered press at all. They'll continue to report asteroids as "harbinger of the approaching eschaton" whether it's on the Torino or Donuto scale (instead of covering, say, the deleterious effects of gasoline consumption by SUV's on the environment, or the tobacco industry's clever solicitation of candidates for DEATH).
poll (Score:5, Funny)
Re:poll (Score:4, Funny)
"I LIVE on an asteroid, you insensitive clod!"
Re:poll (Score:3, Insightful)
Now, back in the early 80s, during college, when I *was* young, idealistic, and really wanted to go live on an asteroid; well. Nowadays I'm halfway burnt out from working too many overtime hours and wondering when the layoff notice comes; and watching the planet go to hell (with more knowledge vs. ideal
We should get rid of the torino scale regardless (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:We should get rid of the torino scale regardles (Score:2)
Would you mind clarifying how that works?
Re:We should get rid of the torino scale regardles (Score:2, Informative)
>
> Would you mind clarifying how that works?
When mathematics hits language... no good outcome. I suppose the original poster meant that the Torino-scale combines two completely unrelated scales with each other.
The probability of an impact has nothing to with its potential (desastrous) effects.
Two orthogonal vectors are linear independent from each other, that is, one isn't a multiple of the other.
If you'd measure impact-probabilty on the x-axis, and the effects on the y
Re:We should get rid of the torino scale regardles (Score:5, Informative)
Multiply probability of impact by consequences of collision and you get a meaningful weighed probability of disaster.
Low probability * Low damage = Low danger
High probability * Low damage = Medium Danger
Low probability * High damage = Medium Danger
High probability * High damage = High Danger
Seems reasonable to me
Re:We should get rid of the torino scale regardles (Score:5, Funny)
The BSD syslog Protocol [ietf.org] already has a scale that can be adapated with a little tweaking. And then we can have notification relayed to a plethora of Syslog consoles that can take appropriate action (backup, shutdown, pager, send T101 back in time to stop it, etc). So we have:
which with a little tweaking becomesThe only downside I see is that it is the BSD syslog protocol, and I understand that BSD is dead...
Re:We should get rid of the torino scale regardles (Score:4, Informative)
I don't think it misrepresents anything. Each value is associated with both a specific kinetic energy and a specific probability. The Torino value not just the result of multiplying the two numbers (which would introduce the orthogonal vectors issue you mentioned) but rather a unique area on the plane defined by those two 'vectors'.
COVERUP!!!!!!!!! (Score:5, Funny)
Don't believe them!! They're trying to... hey, get out of my room!, AARRRRGHHGHH.....
[NO CARRIER]
Panic can be good (Score:5, Interesting)
Right now, most of the sky is ignored and there is no solution to moving a huge asteroid just a little bit to avoid collision with the Earth or the moon. If Joe Sixpack demanded some kind of plan eventually something would be debated in Congress. The alternative is to watch a small part of the sky and do nothing if a real threat is detected.
Re:Panic can be good (Score:2)
Anything that keeps you in the news is good, because any publicity that doesn't get you shut down is good. Maybe they could get some corporate sponsors.
Bombs, not 'scopes (Score:4, Insightful)
Watching the skies for asteroids is comparatively inexpensive. The distances that telescopes are required to resolve in order to detect a threatening asteroid within sufficient lead time are far shorter than those routinely resolved by Hubble or Chandra, and lower-power telescopes = lower cost. It's the research into asteroid diversion techniques that really must be beefed up. I can almost understand the bureaucracy's reluctant attitude toward funding such projects -- why, they reason, should they pump money into research for circumstances that in all likelihood will never occur?
Nevertheless, the price for such an event, one asteroid at the expense of the human race, is far too high. This presents its own kind of pragmatism, which mustn't be ignored by those with the power to decide.
Re:Bombs, not 'scopes (Score:4, Insightful)
It's not an either-or question. The further away an asteroid can be detected, the less effort would be required to divert it. Hypothetically speaking, if one could accurately predict collisions a thousand years in advance, only very small tweaks to trajectory would be necessary. Build a 'paint bomb' that would make one face of the asteroid highly reflective, so that its momentum is changed by sunlight bouncing off. Contrariwise, asteroids observed only a month in advance by some guy with binoculars will call for none other than...ahem...Bruce Willis.
Re:Panic can be good (Score:2)
Re:Panic can be good (Score:2)
They should make a movie. "Mr. Sixpack goes to Washington."
Panic and fear = emotions, which are a poor way to evaluate risks. We might go nuts worrying about NEO and devote a gazillion dollars to it, and then Yellowstone Park might blow up, taking half the US with it - or perhaps something a little more mundane and realistic could be overlooked, resulting in much death and destruction.
I do agree more money shou
Re:Panic can be good (Score:3, Insightful)
Everyone keeps complaining, "We need more money", "more money", "more money", "more money". What will it take for people to realize we can't have the resources, environment and honesty everyone needs until we do away with money and the waste, excuses and corruption that are associated with it?
Answer: A new type of media.
I think we can all agree that asteroids pose a potential threat to our way of life, yet we're unwilling to admit it in a social context.
Re:Panic can be good (Score:2)
On the 5th near miss where nothing happens, the 6th won't be news worthy. Remember chicken little who cried that the sky was falling? Or the boy who cried wolf?
And you're not serious in believing that congress is going to come up with a solution do you? So congress will debate and then they will bring some of these scientists who don't have enough money to really do good research in front of them, he will say something to the effect that if an asteroid
It's Come'n right for us!! (Score:2, Insightful)
Re:It's Come'n right for us!! (Score:2)
Newsflash! Scientists want no more money, please! (Score:5, Funny)
This sounds suspisciously like an Onion article in the making...
Re:Newsflash! Scientists want no more money, pleas (Score:3, Insightful)
The gotcha is without mainstream media coverage and public opinion there is no way they are going to get additional funding. I think that the occasional bit of ove
Re:Newsflash! Scientists want no more money, pleas (Score:2)
I guess it makes sense (Score:3, Interesting)
Well, it would be funny if I had someway to get to another earth-like planet ...
Of course, with essentially no space program, there's nothing we could do even if we DID believe them, so maybe they're worrying over nothing.
Theres lots we could do (Score:2)
2. We could send the 2 years in secret preperations building a new civilization underground that can live for 1000 years, then pick the people who get to live at random
Bruce Willis (Score:3, Funny)
He's afraid he's going to have to wear that hideous cordoroy space-suit again and listen to Ben Affleck mope about J.Lo.
Re:Bruce Willis (Score:2)
I don't like the sound of them apples.
On space.com too (Score:5, Informative)
Why Worry? (Score:5, Funny)
Oh wait, they are all dead, I forgot.
I don't approve of their color scheme! (Score:2, Funny)
Perhaps we should always be in an elevated state for possible impact too!
This is just plain silly... (Score:5, Insightful)
As long as the information the Astonomers release is accurate and fully explains the likelyhood of an impact, I think they're covered. There is enough of a peer review process involved that keeps inaccurate information from being disseminated. And the scale they use to rate the impact probability seems quite satisfactory to me. (granted, I'm no astronomer)
Maybe I'm assuming too much, but media hype doesn't usually make it past my BS filter. Until I hear a report from a multiple reliable media sources, I'm unlikely to believe in wild claims of global destruction. But that's just me.
Traxman
Non-issue (Score:2)
Seriously though, did they ever? When was the last time you saw someone look at a headline about a potential asteroid collision, and witnessed a reaction other than a chuckle, or a sarcastic remark about life insurance?
The public knows there's virtually no chance of such an event actually happening, though I'm sure t
I'm less concerned about the Torino Scale. . . . (Score:3, Interesting)
It makes us look bad that they declare we're all going to die and then later late week after they've gotten more data and re-crunch the numbers have to come back and say "Ohh, yeah, please ignore what we just said"
Heh (Score:5, Insightful)
Just tell me where it'll hit (Score:2)
even though i think he's a goof ball... (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:even though i think he's a goof ball... (Score:3, Interesting)
The trouble is that the News has stopped being about the News and has instead become about pandering to the lowest common denominator's interests (there are an awful lot of stupid people out there, and they just happen to be the ones most impacted by advertising).
It's like Bill Murray's character in Scrooged pointed out: "[People wanting to see the program] isn't good enough! They have got to be *so* *scared* to miss it!"
Watch any news progra
Need better math teachers? (Score:3, Insightful)
Millions and Billions (Score:2)
A girl in the front row began sobbing hysterically.
"What's wrong?" asked the professor. "It's in like four billion years!"
The girl stopped crying, relieved, and brightened. "Oh! I thought you said four *million* years!"
Fundamental Problem (Score:2)
M@
Overhauling stuff (Score:3, Interesting)
What needs to be overhauled is how the astronomers interact with the press. Perhaps they should simply not hold press conferences on "maybes". Especially when certainty will be available within a few days anyway.
The problem isn't the system, the problem is the people. Glory hungry amateurs and stupid journalists, feeding off of each other.
To hell with 'em all.
Top 10 Sensational News Reports about Asteroid (Score:4, Funny)
9. CNN: "We now go to our Washington bureau for the latest on the Bush administration's responsibility for this catastrophy.
8. PBS: "If you send us $100, you'll get this nice Yanni videotape."
7. MSNBC: "In Scarborough country, asteroids are held accountable"
6. C-Span: "Tonight on Book Chat, the author of the "Meteor" tie-in novel weighs in."
5. CBS News with Dan Rather: "This meteor will sweep through the South like a tornado through a trailer park" [dol.net]
4. The View: "What do you think we should wear for this?"
3. Good Morning America: "Is your pet psychic? These and more stories after the asteroid report."
2. MTV News: "With this new asteroid in the sky, Meat Loaf has a few words to say about the fact that he is no longer the biggest `Rock Star' around"
1. James Carville on Crossfire: "Ken Starr is bringing this upon us! This asteroid will kill minorities and poor children!"
0. Springfield News: "This is Kent Brockman. I for one, welcome our...."
No-Spin (Score:2)
What I don't like is... (Score:2)
Worried about asteroids? I got a solution: (Score:5, Interesting)
It's depressing to think that we continue to keep all of mankind's eggs in one basket when we don't have to. Zubrin says $20 billion and 10 years to get to Mars and $2B a launch after that -- that's 70+ Mars missions just for what we're spending for W's war in Iraq, which I suspect would do a lot towards addressing the idea of permanent colonization.
Get some puny dictator who poses no threat to the US or do something so great that it'd be remembered forever so long as humans draw breath...
Re:Worried about asteroids? I got a solution: (Score:2, Funny)
Re:Worried about asteroids? I got a solution: (Score:2, Interesting)
Re:Worried about asteroids? I got a solution: (Score:3, Insightful)
You basically need two things: Power (as in energy) and manpower. You can make air and water from the locally-available supply, you can grow food in greenhouses and you can live underground or in shielded areas to get away from the radiation on the surface.
Terraforming would be cool long-term, but it hardly required.
Re:Worried about asteroids? I got a solution: (Score:2, Insightful)
Look at the bright side! (Score:3, Funny)
Let em live in fear (Score:3)
Asteroids bah. (Score:4, Funny)
Wait. (Score:3, Interesting)
All these level 1 rated objects have been reclassified as level 0 as soon as a couple weeks of data have been obtained; why not wait those couple weeks before publising anything?
Replace it with a Gran Torino scale... (Score:2)
Moderating asteroids?? (Score:5, Interesting)
but seriously, I think part of the problem is that scientists want to be the first to publish something about important things they have found, so we end up with people racing to the press to say they found something before other people found it.
Maybe what they need is some sort of identifier showing how much data has been collected to tell people how certain the track is. Right now, they just say, ooh, 1 in a million chance based on small dataset with huge error bars. But in reality it should be 1 in 5 billion because our error bars are huge. I really think this is the scientists fault for publishing really early data that has not been corroborated yet or refined--not the press... its not like they are hacking into the scientists computers and misinterpreting data, its the scientist trying to impress a good looking journalist or something or get some recognition...
--if only coffee and techno came in the same drink...
Psychology vs. Utility Theory (Score:5, Insightful)
And even statistics is inadequate for assessing the threat. On a deeper level, no single asteroid threat scale can work if different people have different levels of risk aversion. Which would you prefer: 1) an event that has a 1-in-a-million chance of killing 1 billion people or 2) an event that has a 100% chance of killing 1000 people. Different people will argue for different preferences despite the fact that both events have the same expected value of 1000 people dead. Some, who are risk averse, would abhor even the remotest possibility that a billion people might perish. Others, who are risk seeking, would rather take a 99.9999% chance of nobody dying to avoid the option in which 1000 people are most certainly killed.
Overall, I can see why the scientists want to downplay all the preliminary sightings of asteroids. With too little tracking data, nearly every rock they find looks like it might hit the Earth sometime. The real question is: how many false alarms can the public tolerate? If it is 1 false alarm per month, then scientists should only publish a threat assessment once a month.
Comment removed (Score:4, Funny)
No one will care by 2014. (Score:3, Interesting)
One in a million maybe.... (Score:2)
We do need to take any threat seriously though, it will drastically affect life on earth.
Give us more Asteroid scares! (Score:2)
What we really need is a good 1:1 for people to think about. That will get us into space in a hurry.
What do you expect (Score:2)
Turn the public's fear to your own good (Score:5, Insightful)
It worked for the PATRIOT act, why not astronomy?
MOD PARENT UP (Score:2)
How to deal with an asteroid that might collide (Score:3, Interesting)
I was thinking about the various reports I've heard about deflecting an asteroid or shooting it with a missle. One idea I just thought of would be to somehow increase the speed of the asteroid so that it would miss earth. Maybe by using a solar sail or attaching rockets to it that would increase it's speed. If you had enough warning ahead of time then maybe you wouldn't actually have to have much acceleration as long as it was continuous (such as the solar sail idea).
Do you think that would be possible? Would it work any better than blowing it up or deflection?
Simple solution (Score:5, Informative)
In order to report on this issue responsibly, all that's required is to ignore any object on the list until the NEO survey folks has collected observations over a span of 20 days or more. Before that, the orbits are too unclear to be worth reporting upon. Practically all objects fall of the list before the obeservations span 20 days.
Sadly, some reporters want to get the story out first, so they jump the gun.
Win the lottery (Score:3, Funny)
Boy, the media should pick up on this story and cause some hysteria.
Clearly this is primarily the fault of the media (Score:2)
"Scientists" cannot entirely escape blame either. For decades they have existed in an unofficial unholy union with the press.
"Warning! Recent study says if you've ever heard the word "FAT" you're going to die! 1000 times more likely to die TOMORROW!"
Appendix Z of study:
Technically our findings are true. We're all going to die. There's also a 1 in
Panic! (Score:2)
It's their own fault (Score:5, Interesting)
So...what do they do? Instead of waiting the two days and seeing if the risk is real, they announce right away.
Let's consider the possibilities if they had waited a couple of days. In the overwhelmingly most likely case, they find after a couple days that things are OK, and so say nothing. No panic. All is well.
In the extremely unlikely case, it turns out it does have a reasonable chance of hitting the Earth, perhaps high enough that we actually need to do something about it. In that case, would a delay of TWO DAYS OUT OF 11 YEARS really have made a difference?
Either someone was very irresponsible in announcing in the first place, or someone was trying to get publicity for astronomers (perhaps to help with funding?)
What a difference punctuation makes... (Score:5, Funny)
Why not just run with the fear? (Score:3, Interesting)
Media - right, astronomers - wrong (Score:3, Interesting)
It is about funding (Score:3, Insightful)
How disengenuous. For years astronomers have whipped up a frenzy about the latest asteroid encounter, presumably to compete for funding with the other "natural disaster" sciences of climatology and volcanology. The amount of funding they is proportional to how much fear they can produce in the the public. slashdot.org dutifully assists by publishing these stories.
Technically... (Score:3, Insightful)
All that's changed is our assessment or understanding of that chance.