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ISS Dodges Space Junk For First Time In Five Years
Posted by
kdawson
on Mon Sep 01, 2008 05:50 PM
from the missed-me-nyah-nyah dept.
from the missed-me-nyah-nyah dept.
Kligat writes "For the first time since 2003, the International Space Station has utilized the rockets on the European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle to dodge leftover remnants of a defunct satellite. The Russian Cosmos-2421 was launched in June 2006 to track Western Navy vessels and is believed by NASA to have exploded — 'likely due to a self-destruct command issued by Russian officials' according to the article — leaving 500 pieces of space debris. Ordinarily, the rockets on the ATV are used to take the ISS away from Earth's atmosphere and reduce drag. In this case, the 5-minute firing caused the ISS to move downward because it was already near the top of its acceptable range. Estimated probability of impact was 1 in 72, and an avoidance maneuver is called for if the probability is greater than 1 in 10,000. The space junk was predicted to pass the ISS within just a mile."
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Every Satellite Tracked In Realtime Via Google Earth 196 comments
Matt Amato writes "With the recent discussion of the ISS having to dodge some space junk, many people's attention has once again focused on the amount of stuff in orbit around our planet. What many people don't know is that USSTRATCOM tracks and publishes a list of over 13,000 objects that they currently monitor, including active/retired satellites and debris. This data is meaningless to most people, but thanks to Analytical Graphics, it has now been made accessible free of charge to anyone with a copy of Google Earth. By grabbing the KMZ, you can not only view all objects tracked in real-time, but you can also click on them to get more information on the specific satellite, including viewing its orbit trajectory. It's an excellent educational tool for the space-curious. Disclaimer: I not only work for Analytical Graphics, but I'm the one that wrote this tool as a demo."
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In SOVIET RUSSIA.. (Score:5, Funny)
You watch out for spy satellites!
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Actually, this really sucks because the rockets were used to LOWER the ISS. What a waste. I wonder how much warning they get before estimated impact.
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while it seems like a waste cause the rocket fuel was used to cancel out a previous boost maneuver, keep in mind that the ISS needs to be within a certain altitude band to be reachable by the soyuz/shuttle. also, the humans on board necessitate resupply missions more often than boost manuevers are required anyway.
Re:In SOVIET RUSSIA.. (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, this really sucks because the rockets were used to LOWER the ISS. What a waste. I wonder how much warning they get before estimated impact.
Actually, they were planning to lower the ISS for the next few missions anyway so that the shuttle would be able to bring up more cargo than usual. This maneuver wasn't so much a waste as it would seem to be.
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Just like a supermarket (Score:2, Funny)
Russia just can't tell the truth. (Score:2)
Pure case of state-controled media going on in Russia. They're not willing to admit they had a spy satellite in the first place, so they're not able to explain where the debris came from. That turns out to be something NASA is more than willing to do for the American side.
Re:Russia just can't tell the truth. (Score:5, Funny)
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Re: "garbage" (Score:5, Funny)
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Re:Russia just can't tell the truth. (Score:5, Interesting)
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I just mentioned that to my Martian friend, and he said "Gzornak frokka wa Hubble, flrckin earthling!"
Re:Russia just can't tell the truth. (Score:5, Interesting)
The problem with this theory is that there are about 100,000 geeks in the world that love nothing more than to tag every single man made object in space. They even have programs to show every bit in real time graphically orbiting the planet. Many of these are free for download.
You can't put or have anything in space bigger than a small stone and not have some government or organization find and tag it, only to release that data to the general public at some point not very long after that. Lots of RADAR being pumped out in to space just for this very purpose.
If the ISS was moving because of anything other than debris from a Russian spy sat, then the slashdot headline here would spell it out. Even the military make use of the work from these guys, it can sometimes actually be more up to date.
Me: Ex 3 letter agency drone that worked in the satellite area for a while.
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A mile? (Score:4, Interesting)
Aren't orbital trajectories pretty well known? How is there a 1 in 72 chance that the thing will make a sudden mile-long jog and hit the station?
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Hmm, good question. I suppose only SchrÃdinger's Cat knows for sure. :-/
Re:A mile? (Score:5, Insightful)
An HTML entity shouldn't be required. It's 2008; we should be able to stick Unicode into these boxes.
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According to that list [nasa.gov], there are 12 objects with a probability >1/10,000, and 2 with a probability > 1/1000.
Note that the uncertainty on these orbits is frequently many 1000's of km; the orbits of things in LEO are much better determined.
Re:A mile? (Score:5, Insightful)
Because when dealing with the vastness of space a mile is pretty damn close.
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Re:A mile? (Score:5, Informative)
The orbital trajectory of every piece of debris from a spy satellite that was intentionally blown up isn't so well known, especially when the nation controlling the satellite wants it to be a secret.
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Re:A mile? (Score:5, Insightful)
While that's a valid point for some situations, radar systems tend to have problems tracking objects below a certain size. A marble moving at 36,000 miles an hour isn't likely to be picked up by any radar array that I've ever seen.
The other problem is that they suck up a lot of juice. An active radar dish blaring away 24/7 would be a significant drain on the electrical power available to the ISS. I can't say it's not possible since I don't know how much their solar arrays can generate, but I'm willing to wager that it'd be a problem.
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Add to what you said that if the debris is traveling at a high speed WRT the ISS, even if it could be detected by radar there wouldn't be a whole lot of time to do anything about it.
Re:A mile? (Score:5, Informative)
At the risk of being redundant, it's roughly a 1 in 72 chance that their calculations of a "miss" are off. Calculations of this sort involve a margin of error, from not precisely knowing locations of these objects to not being able to do forecasting accurately enough. Debris A gets hit by debris B (which somehow evaded your radar), sending off two new chunks of metal which weren't even IN your original calculations. I'm actually impressed that they can put solid numbers on these things, but I guess that's what supercomputers are for.
Yay for safety margins.
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it needs friggen lasers (Score:3, Interesting)
this post made me wonder. could they repurpose the nautilus anti missle laser system to knock the space junk that threatens the station out of the vacum of space. Or could it make things worse? (lots of tiny particles you can't avoid vs. a couple of big particles.
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Re: it needs friggen lasers (Score:5, Funny)
Or could it make things worse? (lots of tiny particles you can't avoid vs. a couple of big particles.
well, what we need then is a linux admin who has mastered that Asteroids game
Parent
Bring in the Toy Box. :) (Score:2)
Recycle It! (Score:4, Funny)
They should attach large electromagnets to the ISS and collect all of the space junk it passes by for recycling. I wonder what payment the recycling depot would give for satellite parts.
I don't keep track of shuttle payloads, but I would imagine that there would be room for a satellite or two in the cargo bay on the return trip.
All kidding aside... (Score:2)
Within 1 mile? (Score:4, Informative)
That's a heck of a close call, considering the ISS is traveling at 4.8 miles per second. That's little like a car at highway speed running a red light and missing another car by less than one car length.
Re:Within 1 mile? (Score:4, Interesting)
Not really, since their relative speeds may be far less. If the debris cloud is traveling on the same trajectory at 4.7 miles per second, then their relative velocity is only 360 miles per hour.
On the other hand, if it's traveling on the exact opposite trajectory at the same speed .... ouch.
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ISS altitude graph (Score:5, Informative)
Impact probability ? (Score:2)
Anyone here know how they calculate "impact probability" ? I mean, my poor man's logic seems to think you either hit something, or you don't. Bool 1, or Bool 0.
If you miss something by a mile, how does that wind up being a 1 in 72 probability ? No offense to the space buffs, of which I am not one, but that sounds like game show odds to me: "You're bound to lose, but let's all act excited anyway!"
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
The calculated miss distance was about a mile, but there was uncertainty in that miss distance such that there was a 1 in 72 chance it wouldn't miss the ISS, but instead hit it directly.
To answer your question (at a high level), the sensors and models that are used to track and predict the debris locations have associated mathematical models that can put a number on the uncertainty of where that debris is. The uncertainty takes into account things like how many radar obs were made, the inherent accuracy of
Hitting Space Junk (Score:5, Funny)
> ISS Dodges Space Junk For First Time In Five Years
It must be really banged up after 5 years of hitting space junk.
Admit it! You thought it too!
Re:Can't we just span a huge net (Score:4, Funny)
in space so we could catch all the space junk? We just need to be careful that we don't catch any space stations by accident...
Considering who would be putting the net out there, what do you think the chances of accidently catching a space station (or satellite) are, hmm?
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Re:Can't we just span a huge net (Score:4, Insightful)
Would have to be a pretty tight net... small particles moving fast enough can rip a dangerous hole in spacecraft.
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Re:Can't we just span a huge net (Score:4, Funny)
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SUCK.. SUCK.. SUCK..!
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So move the net at that speed - 2 km/h, big deal? ;D
Re:Space help? (Score:5, Funny)
I'm not a rocket scientist. Is there another kind of drag that needs to be reduced?
The drag of being stuck in a space station! It's pretty much like being in prison, but when you stick some rockets on it, suddenly you feel like a supervillain!
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Is there another kind of drag that needs to be reduced?
Yes, they had too many transvestites on board.
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Film will be interrupted for a recap of the story at 7
Re:slownewsday? (Score:5, Informative)
Depends on the error ellipse of the orbit determination for the junk, and it sounds like the uncertainty is a good fraction of a mile in size. But in any case, the miss distance is a mile after the course adjustment, not before.
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Re:Pretty New Space Junk (Score:4, Informative)
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