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What NASA Won't Tell You About Air Safety
Posted by
ScuttleMonkey
on Mon Oct 22, 2007 02:35 PM
from the wtb-better-drugs dept.
from the wtb-better-drugs dept.
rabble writes "According to a report out of Washington, NASA wants to avoid telling you about how unsafe you are when you fly. According to the article, when an $8.5M safety study of about 24,000 pilots indicated an alarming number of near collisions and runway incidents, NASA refused to release the results. The article quotes one congressman as saying 'There is a faint odor about it all.' A friend of mine who is a general aviation pilot responded to the article by saying 'It's scary but no surprise to those of us who fly.'"
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Close calls (Score:4, Interesting)
Given the increasing amount of air traffic, I would not be surprised to see incidents (not comforting given upcoming travel), but the shocking thing is that the FAA (and the public) is still dealing with a completely antiquated air traffic control system that like other aspects of our national infrastructure is woefully lacking, particularly around large airports.
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Close != close call (Score:5, Interesting)
A few years back I was on a flight from Seattle to LAX and with a very chatty pilot. He said something like "In a minute we'll be having a very close look at a Cessna xxx. You won't have much time to see it because it is going at aaa mph and they're going at bbb mph so the closing speed is... Don't worry folks, they are in their lane and we're in ours" and shortly later this plane came whipping past at what seemed like touching distance. Now that was clearly not a close call, but if the pilot had not talked about it we'd probably have thought it was.
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Re:Close != close call (Score:5, Interesting)
This video shows two aircrafts 1000 feet apart passing by each other: http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=xpYD0higmxk [youtube.com]
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Re:Close != close call (Score:4, Informative)
The fact the pilot knew to discuss it with passengers before it happened meant it was not a close call. Likely, the pilot was being pro-active to avoid ignorance among his passengers, exactly like what you're spewing now.
Planes fly by each other all the time. People fail to realize there are both horizontal and vertical rules of separation. People fail to realize pilots are not forced to blindly fly a course. In fact, pilots are required by regulation to "see and avoid." I have seen a near miss; with collision avoided only by my radio call. I have also seen lots of normal traffic which from overhead appears to intercept in space yet was safely separated by 1000 - 2000 feet. It's common and not dangerous. On the other hand, I have almost been hit by a reckless pilot before; requiring significant maneuvering. ATC was kind enough to alert me before I had even spotted the traffic. Yet despite being too close for comfort, it did not meet the FAA's definition of a "near miss".
Planes, like cars, have specific altitudes they must fly based on their compass heading and nature of their flight. ATC can override this, but they will only do so when they can aid with traffic separation. In other words, just because you see two cars pass by each other, each in their own lane, in no way, shape, or form, means they almost collided. Planes, like cars, pass each other on a daily basis, only with an extra dimension added.
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Re:Close != close call (Score:5, Funny)
Hmmm my car seems to be missing the altimiter and compass and "flying mode" options...
tm
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Re:Close calls (Score:5, Informative)
I am a general aviation pilot with about 800 hours and nothing you saw is the slightest bit out of the ordinary. The "3-5 miles" is the lateral separation for two aircraft in cruise flight at the same altitude. As long as you're separated vertically by at least 1,000' (which the first aircraft pic clearly was - probably 3000' above you, in fact), there is no lateral separation requirement at all. Many times, I'll fly directly under or over a commercial jet, which is fine since the controller knows we're at different altitudes.
Your second picture pretty clearly shows you on approach to an airport - SLC. Salt Lake City has parallel runways (see http://www.airnav.com/airport/SLC [airnav.com]) and under certain conditions, to improve airport capacity, simultaneous parallel approaches are allowed. That is, two aircraft simultaneously landing on parallel runways. This is perfectly safe because the aircraft aren't just randomly cruising around; they're being held to extremely tight lateral guidance by the runways' Instrument Landing Systems (ILS) so they don't conflict.
And, finally, at any time, during any phase of flight -- as long as you're not in a cloud -- a controller can always have the following conversation with a pilot:
ATC: You have traffic, 11 o'clock, 4 miles, 8,000 feet, moving northbound. Report him in sight.
Pilot: Traffic in sight.
ATC: Roger, maintain visual separation with that traffic.
Now the two airplanes can get closer than the 5 mile limit; the pilot has reported the other airplane is in sight and is doing "see and avoid" -- basically, the same way you avoid hitting other cars when you're driving.
I hope this has been informative enough for you to, please, stop posting alarmist blog entries saying "Oh my god, look at that plane, it's way too close!" Really, these are all quite normal operations.
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Re:Close calls (Score:4, Informative)
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Completely right (Score:3, Informative)
That picture is not a safety issue (Score:5, Informative)
The airliner in that picture on your blog is not violating any recommended practices. The 3-5 miles is typical following distance for airliners on the same path, which allows time for potentially dangerous wake turbulence to dissipate. For planes whose paths do not intersect (in the 3-D environment, not merely 2-D), much, much closer passes can safely occur. The plane you show was at least 1000 feet higher than your own, a standard separation for planes awaiting landing clearance, and not on the same flight path.
Whatever may be in NASA's report (I suspect it's mostly the collisions it refers to are mostly taxiway and tarmac incidents), does not change the fact that the airlines are still the safest way to travel by a large margin. Over the past 20 years, your odds of dying in a commerical airline accident were about 1 in 5 million per flight (multiply by number of flights you take in life for net risk). Your odds of dying on the road are about 1 in 50 (net risk).
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This really that bad? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:This really that bad? (Score:5, Insightful)
I know that pilots were given anonymity, but there are plenty of incidents that could be recognized by the description (it's not hard to figure out which airlines fly a lot of routes -- Southwest and JetBlue, for example, are the only carriers between a lot of secondary airports).
If the report is published to the greater world then pilots might not be as forthcoming about future incidents and we might lose a good chance to prevent an accident. Without knowing more about the report, why it was developed, who developed it, and what good it does I can't say for sure whether that's the right answer or not, but it's at least a reasonable answer. There's no conspiracy here, sorry.
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Re:This really that bad? (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:This really that bad? (Score:5, Informative)
The report will not protect you from deliberate violations of the rules, but if you accidentally or due to the safety issue involved had to break a rule, it will limit FAA's ability to punish you. As I recall, if there is an accident involved (defined by FAA terms), it's also not usable. You can use this protection once in five years, I think, but I'm not certain of the dates. (I've filed reports but never needed the protection.)
The identifying data is removed from the report before it goes into the database. The pilot gets a reciept with a number and date so he can invoke the protections.
You are spot on about feeling comfortable doing the reporting.
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Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
I agree with you on your point - air travel is incredibly safe by nearly every measure that matters. Crashes, fatalities, etc.
You simply can't be safe all the time. You can't. As you sit there right now, look down. How old is your surge surpressor? Is it within it's lifetime as specified by the manufacturer? Is your seat ergonomically correct, and
Flying versus driving (Score:5, Interesting)
The book contains a lot of that kind of analysis and is worth reading simply for the insight into incentives (which I found in the first chapter.)
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Re:Flying versus driving (Score:5, Informative)
Even assuming this to be true (which, not having looked at the analysis, I reserve judgement on), if I'm planning a trip from A to B that are, say, 20 hours driving time or 2 hours flying time apart, flying is going to be 10 times safer for me than driving.
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Re:Flying versus driving (Score:4, Funny)
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Re:This really that bad? (Score:5, Insightful)
You're living in a fantasy world. It only takes one- and really, it doesn't even take an idiot. Ever had a blowout on the highway? Would you call yourself an idiot if a piece of debris you couldn't see caused one and sent you into a crash? Didn't think so. Doesn't change the good chance of death you have as a result.
Oh, and are you always the driver when you're in a car? Never let anyone else drive? Never taken a taxi, or a shuttle bus of some sort?
The numbers are very simple. Compare the number of plane trips per year and number of plane deaths with the number of car trips per year and the number of car deaths. The plane related incidents are almost statistically unnoticeable in this country. Car crashes, on the other hand, are one of the leading causes of death.
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Re:Fantasy? Not so much... (Score:5, Interesting)
What do I see right away? Well your belief that secondary roads are much safer than highways doesn't seem entirely right - for 2005 I see 44.5k deaths on major roads vs 56.5k deaths on smaller roads. A difference sure, but not all that massive.
The split by vehicle type is also rather interesting, deaths in 4/5 door hatchbacks (the "tiny-ass POS" that I happen to drive) amount to a massive 292, vs almost 28 thousand for your "safe" big-ass car, and no - that difference cannot be explained away by total numbers of vehicles on the road. Small cars are more stable, more agile, and often just better designed with regards to safety. At least that's my belief, and I've yet to see stats to counter that.
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The really dangerous part about air travel.... (Score:5, Insightful)
Flying is so much safer than driving to the airport it is not even funny.
Re:The really dangerous part about air travel.... (Score:5, Funny)
Airline food (when you can get it)
In-flight movies (once saw Dirty Dancing Havana Nights on both legs of a 1 stop flight from Vegas)
Senators in the mens room
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Oh, yeah. (Score:5, Funny)
Important hint: DON'T PICK THE FISH.
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Absolutely true (Score:4, Insightful)
* Taken 16 flights
* Experienced zero accidents or near incidents involving aircraft
* Witnessed zero accidents or near incidents involving aircraft
However:
* Witnessed three auto accidents en-route to airport
* Witnessed one auto accident en-route to home from airport
* Taxi driver taking me home from airport narrowly avoided a severe collision
Flying doesn't scare me in the slightest, but I sometimes find myself nervous when I have to fly. Can you guess from the above experiences why? Safety at the airport in my home town is scrutinised very closely and by all appearances seems to be top notch. On the other hand, the city seems to have no qualms about planning several simultaneous construction projects along a single route, replete with inadequate road markings, constantly changing signal configurations and restricted lanes...which don't mix well at all with drivers who ignore the reduced speed limits and feel that they absolutely must not leave one or more car-length of space between themselves and the vehicle they are following, lest someone has the gall to cut in front of them.
The article of discussion here stated that there is one in-flight fatality per MILLIONS of departures--I bet more people die golfing than flying and certainly driving is several orders of magnitude more risky. Roads are WAY more crowded than runways and airspace, aircraft are in MUCH better condition and far more reliable than automobiles and pilots are FAR more skilled and competent than even some of the better drivers on the road.
It seems to me that even if NASA's interviews suggest incidents are under-reported by half that overall air safety is quite good and certainly not worth the alarmist tones by those involved. If there is ANYTHING about air travel we should be concerned about, beyond the hazardous road trip to the airport (if it isn't the construction-infested road to the airport at home it is the dangerously confusing interchanges and signage at other large airports), it is the screwed up state of security at airports. Recent surveys have shown that security gate personnel have been extremely good at confiscating grandma's knitting needles, threatening toiletries and risky bottles of Evian, but when it comes to REAL security they have been almost criminally neglectful.
For example, in LAX testers placed very obvious-looking bomb components into checked luggage (batteries with wires and circuitry attached, realistic-appearing explosives, etc) and 3 out of 4 times it cleared security. In the recent past air cargo security has been circumvented up to 90 percent of the time. At the airport I take off from regularly a mentally disturbed person scaled the perimiter fence, wandered onto the runways and tried to flag down a commercial jumbo jet preparing for takeoff. In Montreal a reporter crawled under a similar fence, got into an unlocked maintenance truck and started it up. Then he put on a smock and waled right into the CARA kitchen preparing food for the next departing flight posing as an inspector. Nobody questioned his presence, asked for ID or anything.
Trust me, if you were to be injured or killed during a flight--extremely unlikely as it is, you probably stand a greater chance of it being because some nutjob jihadist checked a bomb, or infiltrated airport security and poisoned the in-flight food, than because of mechanical failure or runway incursions or mid-air collisions or birds meeting their maker inside a jet engine.
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Re:The really dangerous part about air travel.... (Score:4, Insightful)
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Re:The really dangerous part about air travel.... (Score:5, Insightful)
- Drive for a living, with frequent retraining and certification
- Drive only on well-defined shifts
- Receive instructions from road controllers
- Make sure their cars are regularly serviced
- Have proximity detectors and redundant steering controls in their cars
- Have co-drivers who can take over if there's a problem
If you really want to make the comparison, it's between a plane and a bus. Have you been on a Greyhound lately?
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Re:The really dangerous part about air travel.... (Score:4, Insightful)
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Is it really NASA who is witholding info? (Score:5, Insightful)
Not to sound like some NASA apologist or something but in my experience with large institutions many of the things done "by NASA" or some other group are often the work of one or a few key individuals and many times may run counter to the very goals of the institution and most people involved in it. It wouldn't surprise me if the political appointee that replaced the kid is doing this.
Re:Is it really NASA who is witholding info? (Score:4, Interesting)
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Re:Is it really NASA who is witholding info? (Score:4, Funny)
Only if these "near misses" are with terrestrial craft, which I think we all realize isn't the case [ufologie.net].
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Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Re:Is it really NASA who is witholding info? (Score:5, Informative)
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He should have never stopped snorting coke (Score:5, Funny)
"When two planes almost collide, they call it a near miss....IT'S A NEAR HIT! A collision is a near miss...::BOOM::...look, they nearly missed."
I haven't been in one collision yet (Score:3, Funny)
meh (Score:4, Insightful)
Seriously though, I try to remind myself that the pilots are just as interested in getting to the destination in one piece as I am.
Congressman commenting on "odor"? (Score:4, Funny)
Isn't that like Pigpen remarking on someone's bathing habits?
It's official: Embarassment == Security Threat (Score:5, Insightful)
Amazing. Once upon a time, the only valid reason for withholding information was if it would affect the nation's security. Now, "commercial welfare" is just as valid as "national security".
How many other documents can now be hidden from public view, given the low bar of "could materially affect the public confidence"? Apparently, if you're not "confident", you're with the terrorists!
For The Non-Pilots (Score:5, Informative)
http://asrs.arc.nasa.gov/ [nasa.gov]
This program has been going for years and years. It helps make the skies above you safer. If there is an increase it is likely due to one of the major trends affecting aviation today. Fewer airports, more airplanes with smaller passenger sizes, more flights, younger pilots, etc. I highly doubt NASA is trying to deep-six some scary fact, they probably just didn't want to pay to deal with the fallout from a service that costs them dollars. They do it for free in the interest of safety. They should be applauded for their years of service to the aviation industry.
Keep in mind that the ASRS is in ADDITION to the NTSB and FAA programs for saftey (which also has searchable online-database).
legal? (Score:4, Interesting)
Re:legal? (Score:4, Insightful)
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They also dont want you to know this... (Score:5, Interesting)
Aren't actual accidents the issue? (Score:5, Insightful)
For example, I've been driving about 14 years without ever causing an accident (or at least, none that I was involved in to know of
Fo example, you start to do a lane change, and suddenly, before you actually enter the other lane, you notice another car there, and abort the lane change. The point of driving experience and skill is it also helps you to cope with the near-accidents that your driving skills failed to prevent.
Surely something similar is relevant to flying too?
Every job I've worked.... (Score:4, Insightful)
Real Reason for Incident Increase... (Score:5, Funny)
Let me get this straight... (Score:3, Funny)
> occurred that could lead to serious problems or even crashes,
> The survey's purpose was to develop a new way of tracking
> safety trends and problems the airline industry could address.
> revealing the findings could damage the public's confidence
> in airlines and affect airline profits.
So NASA, worried the industry could be overlooking some bugs, initiated a code review with the intent of creating a bug-tracking system. Four years and $8.5 million later, the project presumably completed, they didn't release - because it would expose bugs?
I wouldn't have thought it was NASA's role to cover-up airline industry problems. I'd expect airline industry non-sequitors like this to have been performed by the FAA and NTSB. NASA should restrict itself to losing their own design plans, and occasionally mucking up english-metric conversions.
Growing up we had a saying... (Score:3, Insightful)
"Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades."
Do the math, THEN panic (Score:5, Insightful)
Does anyone in government ever bother to READ the reports they spend so much time and money writing and classifying?
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
If we still had legions of penny-a-day, disposable immigrants and virtually no opposition to laying track through high-value suburbs then we might have the ability to put in light rail. But we don't...on either count...so it will never happen. Rail is phenomenally expensive to put in, and nobody wants it in their back yard. It will nev