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NASA Confirms Solar Storm Near 2012
Posted by
CmdrTaco
on Wed Mar 21, 2007 08:08 AM
from the get-out-your-foil-hats dept.
from the get-out-your-foil-hats dept.
An anonymous reader writes "`This week researchers announced that a storm is coming — the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.`
`Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.`
Anyone familiar with the Mayan Calendar? December 21, 2012 (13.0.0.0.0 in the Mayan Calendar) Coincidence?"
`Dikpati's forecast puts Solar Max at 2012. Hathaway believes it will arrive sooner, in 2010 or 2011.`
Anyone familiar with the Mayan Calendar? December 21, 2012 (13.0.0.0.0 in the Mayan Calendar) Coincidence?"
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News: NASA Attempts To Assuage <em>2012</em> Fears 881 comments
eldavojohn writes "The apocalyptic film 2012 has dominated the box office, taking in $65 million on opening weekend. But with all those uninformed eyeballs watching the film, NASA has found itself answering so many common questions that their Ask an Astrobiologist blog offers calming, professional reassurance that there is no planet Nibiru, nor will it collide with Earth (although I do recall a massive solar storm forecast). NASA's main site even offers a FAQ answering similar questions. NPR has more on NASA scientist David Morrison and his efforts to calm the ensuing public hysteria, but survivalists are already planning for the big one. Pretty funny, right? Not according to Morrison: 'I've had three from young people saying they were contemplating committing suicide. I've had two from women contemplating killing their children and themselves. I had one last week from a person who said, "I'm so scared, my only friend is my little dog. When should I put it to sleep so it won't suffer?" And I don't know how to answer those questions.'"
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Oh nooo!!! (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Oh nooo!!! (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Oh nooo!!! (Score:5, Funny)
"Man's impact"? Um, I think you mean "George W. Bush's impact". If he'd just sign Kyoto, the sun would instantly return to normal.
Parent
The real joke (Score:3, Informative)
What makes this joke especially funny is that, despite the fervent belief of most of the crazy elements on the left, George W, Bush CAN'T sign the Kyoto Treaty even if he wanted to. So their carping for him to sign only reveals their ignorance.
Huh? What can I possibly mean? Am I trolling? Nope. Shrubbie can't sign Kyoto because there is already a signature on it for the US. President William Jefferson Blythe Clinton has already signed the Kyoto Treat
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
Everything is driven by money. Always follow the money trail. Why do you think there are people who whine about embryonic stem cell research even though only adult stem cells have yielded viable results? Because the guys getting results have private investors, and the guys not getting results run to the public to make everyone else pay them with federal funds--aka, your taxes.
Re:Oh nooo!!! (Score:4, Insightful)
> approx. 20, than any human caused CO2 combined
You don't consider the cultivation of livestock a human activity? Seriously?
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Maybe he's part of the IPCC which also doesn't consider it to be so.
In a sense they are right. Cow gas and cow belches are not human activity. Yes mankind has increased the numbers of them.
And the key difference is political impetus and control. Seriously, bovine contribution to GW is approximately 11% greater than human industrial outputs. But you won't see the AGW disasterbators saying we need to reduce the number of cows, or put
Metanotice (Score:5, Informative)
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=221906&cid=17
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=227015&cid=18
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=225014&cid=18
http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=220006&cid=17
I wonder how much he's getting paid to do this...or if he's really as demented as his posts seem to imply.
Parent
Re:Oh nooo!!! (Score:5, Informative)
Debunked [realclimate.org] almost two years ago. Sheesh.
Parent
Bullshit alert. (Score:5, Informative)
No. The total energy of charged particles impacting the upper atmosphere is tiny compared with the solar light energy Compare for example, the intensity of the aurora with the intensity of sunlight. Now add in the fact that the aurora covers a tiny fraction of the earths surface while sunlight blankets half of the earth at any time.
Even if it were a significant amount of energy, this energy is entirely absorbed by the atmosphere at altitudes above 60km. You would need to come up with a plausible mechanism for transporting this radiation down into the lower atmosphere without increasing the temperature of the stratosphere.
No, it isn't. The change on Jupiter is regional, not global. There is no indication that it is related to any solar phenomenon.
No, it isn't. Mars is losing CO2 ice near its South Pole. The most likely explanation is that large dust storms from recent years dumped some dust on the ice causing it to absorb sunlight and sublime. This sublimation may cause warming by increasing the CO2 and H2O content of the Martian atmosphere. This might feedback into causing more ice to evaporate. Since there isn't an active carbonate silicate cycle on Mars due to lack of liquid water, there is nothing to prevent this from occurring. So it's likely that the Martian climate experiences warming of this type in a cyclical manner, and that the warming will continue until something else stops it. For example the reduction in the temperature difference between the poles and the equatorial regions might slow the winds enough that the dust storms stop allowing increased precipitaion of CO2 onto the poles. There is no equivalent mechanism at work on Earth. However the residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is more than 20 times longer than the residence time of methane. But wait officer, there were forest fires before there were people. Therefore it couldn't have been my campfire that started it.But wait officer, people can die without being murdered. Therefore it doesn't matter whether my fingerprints are on the gun.
Point 1 you could have gotten wrong just because you don't know anything about atmospheric science. The rest just puts you in the denial camp. Drop the political agenda for a while and see reality.Parent
Re:Oh nooo!!! (Score:5, Insightful)
The mayans do not know of Jesus, therefore no paradox.
Possibility Matrix.
0-Both are right - Mayans without knowledge of Jesus predict the end of the world. Christians predict the end of the world, which includes Jesus v2.0.
1-Christians right, Mayans wrong - Lots of "I told you so"s bantered about.
2-Christians wrong, Mayans right - Fewer "I told you so"s bantered about.
3-Both wrong - Life goes on as normal and some people begin to realize that prophecy is inherently unreliable.
Another possibility is that people cause the end of the world themselves and spin that as their prophecy coming true.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Informative)
None of those claims are actually in the Bible, except for the woman part of #3, which has NOT been disproven. If you think science has disproven it, then you don't understand the nature of science.
Umm, old news? (Score:5, Informative)
Re:Umm, old news? (Score:5, Funny)
This news will be repeated again and again, reaching DUPE MAX sometime just AFTER the SOLAR MAX predicted.
It is not, however, a harbinger for the end of dupes.
Parent
Re:Umm, old news? (Score:5, Insightful)
Local news was terrifying to say the least.
Parent
Re:Umm, old news? (Score:4, Funny)
Parent
Apocalypse? (Score:3, Insightful)
Re:Apocalypse? (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re: (Score:2)
Re: (Score:3, Insightful)
You clearly don't know what the word 'secular' means. Grab a dictionary. You'll find that this sort of Pythagorean mysticism is not at all secular. Indeed, the word you're looking for is "mystical".
The supposed difference between fundamentalist dogma and mystical superstition is not compelling to me, but you can observe it if you wish.
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
End of the world? (Score:3, Insightful)
December 21, 2012 (Score:3, Funny)
Coincidence? (Score:5, Insightful)
Sure.... (Score:3, Insightful)
Coincidence (Score:5, Insightful)
Let me break it down for you: the Mayans had a very advanced & complex calendar that took into account a lot of different cycles and even some of the most extraordinary hiccups that come with man's attempt at keeping track of time. For the Gregorian calendar, we have leap years except we skip one every four hundred years and even with that in place I think we lose a day every 8,000 years. And you will find that every model has some special issues.
So, back to the Mayans, their measurements of days came in sets of 13, contrary to our sets of 7 days in a week. So the world is no more likely to end on 13.0.0.0.0 than it was on the new years even in year seven. Just because 13 was always the last number in their cycles just means that we start a new cycle. No cataclysmic event needed to mark it. The cycle simply repeats and they most likely go to 1.0.0.0.0 there's no such thing as overflow in their calendar.
Fun hokey astrological implications? Yes. Cold hard scientific data pointing to the end of the world? No.
Re:Coincidence (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Coincidence (Score:5, Informative)
Every year divisible by 4 is a leap year.
Except when that year is also divisible by 100, in which case it is *not* a leap year.
Except when that year is also divisible by 400, in which case it *is* a leap year.
Hence 2000 was a leap year. 2100 will not be.
The fun hokeyness is due to the Western assumption that everything is linear, in spite of the fact that we repeat months, days of months, and days of weeks constantly. We don't find it odd that there are thousands of Wednesdays or March 21sts, but somehow we can't understand there ever being more than one 2007.
Parent
Re:Coincidence (Score:5, Funny)
There was another, 4014 years ago. What I can't figure out is how prehistoric man knew when Jesus was going to be born/die/be baptised or whatever event you believe led to the changeover, and how clever it was of him to count backwards.
Parent
Anyone familiar with the Mayan Calendar? (Score:5, Funny)
Is it the one where all twelve are nude except for loincloths and headdresses?
Um... no, I'm not familiar with it.
Re:Anyone familiar with the Mayan Calendar? (Score:5, Funny)
Why am I the only one who has that dream?
Parent
The Mayan calendar change isn't significant (Score:2)
It's not the end of anything in any significant sense, just the turning of a wheel. It's just as reasonable to think of it as a beginning.
Ham Radio operators know what to do! (Score:5, Interesting)
Looking at auroras will be cool too. Be sure to reserve the left seat on US to Europe red-eye flights, I've seen amazing aurorae out that window, nothing that you could see from the ground.
Bruce
next slashdot poll (Score:5, Funny)
aurorae/auroras
or
areolas?
Parent
Sweet! (Score:5, Informative)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Interesting)
We arranged this for the Olympics (Score:2, Funny)
Just in time... (Score:4, Funny)
"65535 votes for X in this voting machine??? errr! Must be the solar storm..."
An interesting subject.. (Score:3, Interesting)
And naturally he is selling the secrets of how to survive this solar flare on DVD for the low low price of $24.99. Still, it's interesting to see a psychic's claim being backed by scientific observations.
Considering the "political" and environmental (Score:3, Interesting)
Does sunspot activity correspond to an decrease in the amount of radiation hitting the earth? If we are at a low point now for sunspots will their increase be truly noticable?
I am only wondering as some scientists have put forward the idea that the sun's activities plays a much greater role in our environment than many give it credit for.
So will an increase in sunspot activity affect us? ( I have no idea, hence I am asking from people who do)
An Interesting Read On The Subject (Score:3, Informative)
Climate Change Linked to Solar Activity (Score:4, Interesting)
This article [nasa.gov] from NASA JPL is very informative on the subject.
I think we need to take a look at the hysteria. It is turn our attention away from what we can do to better this planet. And, the idea of carbon offsets just makes people feel better for their polution levels.
Global Warming has become the new Medieval Church and anyone who does not walk a precise line on the message faces the New Inquisition.
We do need to live more green, more clean, and more simple. But, the public won't buy off on that message if we keep tying it to the Holy Church of Global Warming Hysteria. If we can show more immediate effects of living green and clean the public will follow.
We need to separate those whose real agenda is socio-economic change from the environmental argument. They aren't really interested in the environment, anyway. We need to remove the scammers, like the "carbon offset" (unregulated, uncertified, non-verifiable) companies to improve public perception.
We need to substitue Ed Beagley Jr. for Al Gore. Ed lives, breathes, talks, and walks the environment. Al Gore, while talking about it, still jets around the world, when he could use his own invention, the Internet, to show up at appearances, he maintains a house in Tennessee that uses 20 times the amount of energy as his neighbors, he is a glutton who preaches about the wonders of a diet.
We're not going to pass through the tail ... (Score:3, Funny)
I mean
Self preservation would make me hide out in a tin garden shed, or the back of my big-rig,
but really, the world is just doomed from that point on.
Coincidence? (Score:3, Funny)
Nope, it's true every time.
like NOAA hurricane forecast of 2006? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Re:Second to 1958 activity (Score:5, Funny)
It also probably didn't help that crazy scientists were sending lightening strikes directly into the power grid to help whiney punks get back to 1985.
Parent
Re: (Score:3, Funny)
Remember Galaxy 4? (Score:5, Informative)
When Galaxy 4 died it took out 80% of the pagers in the US plus several video feeds used by the major networks (I worked for CBS at the time)
This was 2 years before the 2000 Solar max when solar activity was ramping up.
More storms in 2003 took out power in parts of Switzerland and killed 2 Satellites
There were several solar flare warnings around that time.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast14jul_2 m.htm [nasa.gov]
July 14, 2000 -- This morning NOAA satellites and the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded one of the most powerful solar flares of the current solar cycle. Space weather forecasters had been predicting for days that an intense flare might erupt from the large sunspot group 9077, and today one did.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/power_outage _031031.html [space.com]
The sixth in an unprecedented series of strong space storms dished out by the Sun over a 10-day period plowed past Earth Thursday, apparently cutting power to 20,000 Swedish customers. The powerful series of outbursts also claimed two satellites as casualties while fueling a host of minor disruptions to radio broadcasts and airline flight plans.
http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/articles/eisbaker.html [agu.org]
A very intense flux of electrons, evident in the magnetosphere earlier this year, may have caused a satellite failure (or at least exacerbated the situation) leading to the loss of telephone pager service to 45 million customers, research has shown. The electrons, known as highly relativistic electrons (HREs), were especially numerous in the weeks preceding the failure. Researchers say HREs have triggered spacecraft anomalies in the past when fluxes are elevated. They therefore believe this energetic electron event could have been behind the failure of the attitude control system of the Galaxy 4 spacecraft at 2200 UT on May 19, 1998. A backup system also failed, either at the same time or earlier, so operators were unable to maintain a stable Earth link.
Galaxy 4 is a heavily used communication satellite at geostationary orbit*. Its sudden failure caused not only widespread loss of pager service but also numerous other communication outages. Using a wide array of datasets, our team of scientists analyzed the space environment for the times in question and found evidence of highly disturbed solar, solar wind*, and geomagnetic conditions in late April and early May. The combination of coronal mass ejections*, solar flares*, and high speed solar wind streams led to a powerful sequence of interplanetary disturbances that hit the Earth. These disturbances produced a deep, powerful, and long-lasting enhancement of the HRE population throughout the outer Van Allen radiation zone. The kinds of disturbances witnessed are indicative of the types of events that may commonly occur during the approaching peak in solar activity in the years 2000 and 2001. It will be most important to determine how well space systems can stand up to the multifaceted effects of the space environment over the next several years.
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/ cell_phone_020306.html [space.com]
Next time your cell phone drops acall, don't rush to blame your service provider. The culprit may well be anangry Sun.
A new study of 40 years of solardata shows that during peaks in activity, bursts of energy from the Sun canpotentially cause dropped calls for some cell phone users across wide areastwice per week. The problem is caused when radio waves associated with thebursts hit cell phone towers, creating static that overwhelms the signal at thetower, where calls are relayed.
T
Parent