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Congress Hears From Muzzled Scientists

Posted by kdawson on Thu Feb 01, 2007 08:16 AM
from the global-mmpphhhh dept.
BendingSpoons writes "More than 120 scientists across seven federal agencies have been pressured to remove the phrases 'global warming' and 'climate change' from various documents. The documents include press releases and, more importantly, communications with Congress. Evidence of this sort of political interference has been largely anecdotal to date, but is now detailed in a new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists. The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee held hearings on this issue Tuesday; the hearing began by Committee members, including most Republicans, stating that global warming is happening and greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are largely to blame. The OGR hearings presage a landmark moment in climate change research: the release of the 2007 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC report, drafted by 1,250 scientists and reviewed by an additional 2,500 scientists, is expected to state that 'there is a 90% chance humans are responsible for climate change' — up from the 2001 report's 66% chance. It probably won't make for comfortable bedtime reading; 'The future is bleak', said scientists."
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[+] News: Scientists Offered Cash to Dispute Climate Study 668 comments
w1z4rd writes "According to an article in the Guardian, scientists and economists have been offered large bribes by a lobbying group funded by ExxonMobil. The offers were extended by the American Enterprise Institute group, which apparently has numerous ties to the Bush administration. Couched in terms of an offer to write 'dissenting papers' against the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, several scientists contacted for the article refused the offers on conflict of interest grounds."
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  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:21AM (#17841758)
    Hah, what do climatologists know about global warming... Oh wait
      • Re:Climatologists? (Score:4, Informative)

        by Coryoth (254751) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:54AM (#17842942) Homepage Journal
        Let's catch a few of these standard arguments that keep getting trotted out:

        Tying a trend to warmer temperatures based on older data from the early 1900's is suspect at best. Good, reliable, accurate scientific equipment that measures the temperature wasn't readily available until recently (late 1900's).
        It is true that equipment from earlier in the century was not as accurate. It should be noted, however, that we aren't basing our understanding of historical temperature off just one reading, but rather off many thousands of temperature measurements from around the globe. Averaging across all these measurements (which won't have consistent bias in any particular direction) allows for an accuracy that is greater than any individual temperature measuring apparatus. Feel free to read the studies on uncertainty estimates for historical temperatures [uea.ac.uk]. Also note that we aren't just asing trneds off historical records recorded since 1850 or so, but also against historical reconstructions based on proxy data from a wide variety of sources (tree rings, corals, glaciers, ice cores, etc.)

        Apparently, the Earth magnetic field has decreased by 10% in the last 150 years...I believe it's possible that more of the Sun's radiation is penetrating the Earth's magnetosphere due to it being weaker. If more radiation hits the Earth, shouldn't that also increase the overall temperature of the Earth and can global warming be attributed to this?
        Can global warming be attributed to this you ask? Well, it's a matter of sitting down and runnign the numbers. Luckily people have - it's not like people aren't bothering to measure and track the amount of solar radiation that actually reaches the surface of the earth. We can then calculate how much that might contribute to warming. The IPCC, in the Third Assessment Report, put it at about 30% of observed warming. They also concluded that the warming of the last 50 years cannot be explained without considering anthropogenic effects - that is, solar explanations alone are not enough. The FAR is almost out, and it seems like the likelihood of anthropogeic causes mattering have gone from 66% in the TAR to 90% for the FAR. I'd say that means the answer is "no, global warming can't be attributed to this because the numbers don't add up".
      • How dare you cloud the issue with your obvious attempt to bring facts and real science to the table?

        How dare you take a position that Greeny Socialists with a smattering of science are opposed to?

        How dare you attack scientists who have been given grant money by biased organizations to prove its man-caused?

        You have offended me with your opposing view point and you must be shouted down and prevented from presenting again. We will take whatever certification you have, away. And, we will march in high numbers, and you know the saying:

        We have the numbers, so we are right. Because it's popular to say its man-caused, you know its right. Because a bunch of obvious unbiased greenies and socialist say its right, it must be right. We poop on your science and replace it with our hysteria cloaked in scientific terms.

        HOW DARE YOU!

      • At first, I thought, hey, maybe you're just misguided. Maybe you are. However, here's the problem with that theory. You've taken the time to get a lot of different links together and post them here. That suggests that you're capable of doing decent searches. Therefore, you should already know what's wrong with your claims. Now, just to answer your objections (so you don't claim I'm "avoiding" the "facts"):

        (1) Um, yeah. Change that to the world is (appears to be? really?) getting warmer, and this agrees with the basic science done during the 60's prior to sophisticated computer models, and during a slowing down (and slight retreat) of global warming due to increased particulates in the atmosphere.
        (2) True, temperature measures are better now than they have been in the past. Current temperature measures (over the last 100+ years) allow us to correlate temperatures with other proxies. These give us not only ways of estimating temperatures from prior eras, but also to get an idea of how much error we should expect in such estimates.
        (3) Interesting theory. Of course, no one credible is postulating this theory. Why do you think that is? Also, you're explaining the warming after the fact. See #1.
        (4) Gee, what could cause Jupiter to get warmer over multiple years? Maybe it has something to do with the fact that Jupiter orbits the sun once every 12 years? Of course, it's actually a little more complicated than that. However, I suggest you leave the explanations to people who actually know what they're talking about. [berkeley.edu]
        (5) Of course, Mars annual cycle is closer to ours. And we've been observing it for a very short time. Nevertheless, your questions about that have also been addressed. [realclimate.org]
        (6) Yes, livestock (those being raised by us, specifically) are largely responsible for increases in methane, and we should reduce our dependence on them as well. Methane also is a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. The only positive is that methane has a shorter "shelf life", in that it gets reabsorbed into nature much quicker than carbon dioxide. What's with this shell game, anyway? Are you trying to say that you shouldn't blame humans for CO2 increasing global temperatures because we're also responsible for methane increasing global temperatures?
        (7) And, no it is not possible that the warmer temperatures that Earth is experiencing are caused by cyclical natural phenomena. We've ruled that out. It's like if someone were shot (and died immediately afterwards) and you said, hey, other people have died from natural causes, and other people have been shot and lived. Why is everyone assuming the bullet killed the guy?
        (8) Oh, and let's not do anything because China won't? Please. That's tired. Yes, China needs to also get their act together. That doesn't mean that we shouldn't try to get our act together.
              • RealClimate has an in-depth discussion [realclimate.org] of the Usoskin et al. paper (as well as a link to the original PDF [cc.oulu.fi]), if you're interested. The comments are often as good as the original article on RealClimate. Here's a relevant excerpt from the original article:

                Regardless of any discussion about solar irradiance in past centuries, the sunspot record and neutron monitor data (which can be compared with radionuclide records) show that solar activity has not increased since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming.

                Here are a few interesting points that might or might not be discussed at that site: (a) We've currently just passed through a solar minimum (in the 11-year cycle), yet we are still setting record highs. (b) Around 1957 maximum we were in a local minimum of temperatures. This is best explained by the presence of particulates in the atmosphere due to pollution problems.

        • People modded it down because it at least seems to be deliberate misinformation. Deliberate because the amount of effort that appears to go into it suggests someone who could have taken the time to answer the very questions he raised. This is one of the typical strategies of global warming deniers. Try to spread doubt amongst those who aren't capable of understanding the science. You'll notice that his post followed the typical formula to a T.

          1. Suggest that global warming might not even be happening. That was his first point. Note the careful use of the phrase "appears to be".
          2. Suggest that it's due to factors besides humans. Most of his post was geared towards that strategy.
          3. Suggest that either it's too late to do anything about it, or that we can't do anything about it because others (e.g., China) won't do anything about it.

            The somewhat funny part is that these strategies actually work against each other, except for the main point - to sow confusion and doubt.

            • global warming deniers.
              The fact that you use the same language that is associated with the holocaust shows the irrationality of your side of the subject.

              Really? First of all, I had no idea that Nazis were global warming deniers or accused others of it. Are you trying to Godwin the thread? Secondly, I use the phrase precisely. There are global warming skeptics (those who are truly undecided) and global warming deniers (those who are trying to spread FUD). There's a difference. You're the one who's being irrational by dragging in the holocause. Seriously, what are you thinking?

              I see, so suggesting that a scientific theory might not be true is wrong?

              Depends on one's motivation. I've suggested that the Schwarzschild solution to GR might be wrong [virginia.edu], but I wasn't doing it in an attempt to spread FUD. Is it wrong to moderate someone as a troll when you suspect their only motivation is to spread misinformation?

              You mean he actually proposed that a certain event might be occuring for different reasons than what you believe and cited his sources! Yes, that is quite unacceptable!

              No, he proposed that several different events might be responsible, did enough research to cite sources, yet mysteriously didn't do enough research to know what was wrong with his sources.

              Suggest that either it's too late to do anything about it, or that we can't do anything about it because others (e.g., China) won't do anything about it. The somewhat funny part is that these strategies actually work against each other, except for the main point - to sow confusion and doubt.
              The more you try to shout down and silence people, the more it looks like you have something to hide. You'd be much better off just stating scientific fact linked from solid resources then subtly trying to compare people who don't believe in global warming to Nazi's.

              Again with the Nazis? I'm not the one trying to Godwin the thread. How is that last point "shouting down" or "silencing people"? If I was trying to silence him, then why did I address every single last one of his points (see my response to him, where I also linked from solid resources)? (Seriously, where the heck are you dragging up this Nazi stuff from? Do you have a fetish or something?)

            • by Danse (1026) on Thursday February 01 2007, @11:00AM (#17844036)

              The fact that you use the same language that is associated with the holocaust shows the irrationality of your side of the subject.
              How does that make any sense at all? People who deny that the holocaust ever happened are plainly ignoring the facts. Much like people who are denying that global warming is happening, despite the fact that there is virtually unanimous scientific agreement that it is.

              All of the things he mentions in his post have been discussed and debunked, and if he'd spent half the time researching his points that he spent writing that post, he'd know that these things have been addressed. He may take issue with how they were addressed, but he didn't even bother to do that.
        • Re:Climatologists? (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Chris Burke (6130) on Thursday February 01 2007, @12:28PM (#17845786) Homepage
          Meanwhile weather channel climatologist Heidi Cullen wants global warming skeptics who are meteorologists decertified.

          Not global warming skeptics, meteorologists who were not educated in climate research, and who were presenting their uninformed opinions as the facts of a studied expert.

          There's a significant difference. Someone who is skeptical of global warming, and has read the research and can make his case with facts and reason, is not a problem. Someone who is skeptical of global warming and has not read the research, they just feel that there is something wrong, that climatologists have "something to hide", and hey maybe it's the sun, has anyone thought about the sun? Those are problems, because uninformed unscientific opinions are not helpful in science. When that person is a meteorologist, whom people would assume has an informed scientific opinion and who presents their opinion as though it comes from their expertise, that is damaging.

          What exactly do the ecofundamentalists have to hide? It seems to me that one side is saying 'We are skeptical of what you are saying for the following reasons" and the other side is threating trials and decertifications.

          No, one side is saying "We are skeptical of what you are saying for the following reasons."

          And the other side is saying "Those reasons are bunk, the research has shown this, here's a cite, please read up on the current state of climatology before claiming you have a rational basis for your skepticism."

          There's nothing to hide. The research is all there, in the open. The fact that there are few people who are both well-versed in this research and what you would call a "global warming skeptic" should tell you something. No, it's not a conspiracy.

        • Re:Climatologists? (Score:5, Insightful)

          by Chris Burke (6130) on Thursday February 01 2007, @12:45PM (#17846162) Homepage
          Meanwhile weather channel climatologist Heidi Cullen wants global warming skeptics who are meteorologists decertified.

          Not global warming skeptics, meteorologists who were not educated in climate research, and who were presenting their uninformed opinions as the facts of a studied expert.

          There's a significant difference. Someone who is skeptical of global warming, and has read the research and can make his case with facts and reason, is not a problem. Someone who is skeptical of global warming and has not read the research, they just feel that there is something wrong, that climatologists have "something to hide", and hey maybe it's the sun, has anyone thought about the sun? Those are problems, because uninformed unscientific opinions are not helpful in science. When that person is a meteorologist, whom people would assume has an informed scientific opinion and who presents their opinion as though it comes from their expertise, that is damaging.

          What exactly do the ecofundamentalists have to hide? It seems to me that one side is saying 'We are skeptical of what you are saying for the following reasons" and the other side is threating trials and decertifications.

          No, one side is saying "We are skeptical of what you are saying for the following reasons."

          And the other side is saying "Those reasons are bunk, the research has shown this, here's a cite, please read up on the current state of climatology before claiming you have a rational basis for your skepticism."

          And then the first one goes "No, really, I don't believe you, and here's why."

          And the other goes "Those are the same reasons as before, and I told you, that was covered here. Did you read it? Oh, I guess not. Well would you please shut up until you educate yourself on the topic so we can have a productive conversation?"

          And the first responds "Ha! Ha! See that, he's censoring me! You don't dare face my truth! I knew global warming was bunk!"

          But of course it's the climatologists who are being emotional and unscientific.

          There's nothing to hide. The research is all there, in the open. The fact that there are few people who are both well-versed in this research and what you would call a "global warming skeptic" should tell you something. No, it's not a conspiracy. The conspiracy is what we are seeing in this Congressional hearing, with scientists pressured to change their statements to match an agenda of the administration. I find it really ridiculous that you would sit here and claim it's the ones who accept the conclusions of climate change research who are the ones trying to silence people, in an article presenting evidence of exactly the opposite.

          There are scientists -- including those who find fault with existing research and actually try to enhance the state of knowledge -- and there are the "skeptics", who aren't actually skeptical so much as flat-out disbelieving and willing to grab at any evidence that serves their purpose without doing any further research to see if that evidence stands up to scientific inquiry. They are the ones with a pre-conceived conclusion and are "skeptical" of anything that shows otherwise while completely accepting of anything that does -- again, completely bereft of scientific merit. That's really the key here. Everyone's emotions aside, there are people doing real climatology science, and there are people who are not. The correlation between these two groups and the groups who you would call "believers" and "skeptics" tells you something.
  • by bhima (46039) <Bhima.Pandava@gm ... .com minus punct> on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:25AM (#17841800) Journal
    ``This isn't a smoking gun; This is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles.''
    • Re:Choice Quote (Score:5, Insightful)

      by hey! (33014) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:17AM (#17842408) Homepage Journal

      ``This isn't a smoking gun; This is a batallion of intergalactic smoking missiles.''
      Oh, it's worse than that. It's your bedroom piled knee deep in dirty clothes. Cleaning it up is (a) boring and (b) admitting mom was right, even if she was being an irritating nag.
  • by Neuropol (665537) * on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:25AM (#17841802) Homepage
    When the current administration was was securing their win, a lot of promises were made in order to fuel (pardon the pun) the race for securing the last reserves. The momentum needed to be there for big investment to take place to secure wins and deliver on those promises made. So with that being considered, it stands to reason, you don't want bad advertising in the form of alarming factual statistics being relased by the scientific community being released and hindering the fund security for isolating the last of the worlds petroleum, right? So the cover was thickened. A massive veil of 'turn-the-other-cheek' was set in place in order to ensure that financial gain could be had.

    Now that the whole Charade is under fire from every thing to the administrations take on the environment, space, and that god damned war, people are beginning to lift the corners of the rug where this stuff had been swept under. Unfortunately, what's been found continued to rot while it was being hidden. Now it's even more harsh to deal with. In the end, the deals been exposed, the plug's getting pulled, and I couldn't be happier about it. Just too bad a few of us were saying things like this were going to happen since back in the 70's. It's just unfortunate that we had to have an acceleration period in the last 10-20 years to solidify the problem. And too bad the delicate cycle of the Earth has been damaged permanently as a result of man's greed and quest for senseless power and control.
    • by spiedrazer (555388) on Thursday February 01 2007, @01:21PM (#17846972) Homepage
      First, I was born and raised in a republican household and voted republican right up until the time that GWB became the frontrunner in the primaries in 2000. I did not, prior to this administration, have a political leaning to favor democrats, liberals, environmentalists, sissies, or any other stereotypical liberal cause or issue. I am a well educated person capable of digesting the news and information around me, and all that I have learned in the past 7 years tells me that George W. Bush will go down in history as the worst president ever!

      I'd like for everyone who still supports GWB for whatever reason to just consider the following few points and try to compose literate and thoughtful responses to justify his track record on any of these issues.

      1. Political Appointments - The role of the president is to look out for the best interests of the 'People'. That means trying to represent the many varied interests of ALL the people. Now, Corporations are part of that group, as are members of Greenpeace and all us regular Joes who fall in the middle. The Bush administration has consistently biased most appointments in favor of corporate interests over all other interests. As detailed in the originally referenced article, "Cooney () was a lobbyist for the American Petroleum Institute before becoming chief of staff at the White House Council on Environmental Quality". How can he be expected to provide impartial leadership? This is just one of hundreds of obviously poor choices detailed here [commondreams.org]. I'm not saying that a former Greenpeace executive would be a better choice for any of these positions. The presidents job is to appoint knowledgeable people who have worked in the field and who are capable of weighing the needs and interests of all sides of an issue to provide decisions that balance those interests. Bush has always failed to do this

      2. Personal Freedoms and Liberties - The documentation of the Bush administrations poor record on this topic is pretty extensive. Bush continually uses 9/11 as an excuse to chip away at the basic rights our country was founded on. Illegally tapping domestic phone calls, gathering huge databases of personal financial and travel information, and that small matter of imprisoning and torturing people for indefinite periods without regard for the basic civil liberties spelled out and defended by the constitution. All in the name of preventing another attack that may or may not be preventable. Millions of people die every year for millions of reasons. Tossing away the foundations of our country for a 2% improvement in the chances that you might learn something that could lead to a possible disruption of a plot that may or may not have been successful is not in the best interests of our nation and has been specifically warned against by just about every one of the founding fathers and other great American leaders since then, as seen here [geocities.com]!

      3. Iraq War - The decision to invade and occupy Iraq and the continued resistance to every sane voice begging for a change in policy will go down in history as the worst single piece of leadership in the history of our nation! Even if you ignore the fact that the American people were deliberately lied to in order to foster support for Saddam's removal, the disastrous planning, execution, and failure to learn from a single mistake or appropriately adjust policies or tactics based on past failures is mind-numbing.

      4. Corporate Welfare - One of the few things GWB has done "For" the people is some tax cuts for middle America. Of course, this was done with gimmicks (mid year refund checks etc.) to mask the fact that the real tax breaks were going to huge corporations that were in no dire consequences before GWB came along. The Bush administration has taken every opportunity to push money back to corporate America in one form or another at the expense of many many programs to assist poor and

  • by drewzhrodague (606182) <.ten.eugadorhz. .ta. .werd.> on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:26AM (#17841812) Homepage Journal
    Interesting that the health of our world is being decided by politicialns, rather than the scientists that study this kinda stuff. I sure hope some sensemaking comes of this. Why is it now my fault that scientists aren't taken seriously by this administration?

    Can I declare politics to be illegal and akin to terrorism?
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:31AM (#17841858)

      Interesting that the health of our world is being decided by politicialns, rather than the scientists that study this kinda stuff.
      That's how it's designed to work: politicians decide and scientists study.
      What's not working as designed, is that politicians are not taking seriously (or worse) scientists.
      • by thestreetmeat (1055390) on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:27AM (#17843464)
        An ideal democracy would have a couple more links:

        Scientists study, and publish their findings.
        The media impartially reports the findings based on the quality and the importance of the report.
        The public considers the findings reported by the media, and elect, impeach, recall, vote in referendums and plebiscites, etc. as necessary.
        When necessary, elected officials legislate directly on behalf of their constituents to solve the problem.
        Industry accepts the legislation gracefully.

        Here's how I think it actually works:

        Scientists are pressured by the government and the corporations to change their findings; most report them anyway.
        The media gives equal weight to minority positions on the issue because they want to pretend to be 'fair and balanced', and because they might be owned by a corporation that also has interests in the energy industry. If not, they certainly get lots of advertising revenue from said industry.
        The public, mostly unaware of the problem, don't think they can really do anything anyway.
        Politicians avoid the issue out of fear of losing campaign financing from oil corporations.
        Corporations put ads on TV that give people the impression that they care about the issue, and should be trusted to do the right thing.
  • by Flying pig (925874) on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:27AM (#17841816)
    It's as if, after he was silenced by the Inquisition, the Medicis held an investigation. "So, Signore Galilei, you were improperly induced by the Inquisition to suppress the information that the Earth rotates around the Sun? Thus potentially allowing non-Catholic countries to gain important advances in science and technology while Catholic countries were held back?"

    A genuinely free-market Republican administration would surely want the truth about climate change to be readily available so that the markets could respond appropriately and make capital and resources available for the inevitable re-shaping of society, rather than be associated by similarity of behaviour with the guys in funny skirts who inadvertently helped the Protestants take over the world.

      • Re:Yes besause... (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Daniel Dvorkin (106857) * on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:46AM (#17842060) Homepage Journal
        We haven't heard enough from "the sky is falling" crowd.

        Yeah, that stupid "'sky is falling' crowd." Such idiots! Also the "'pi is irrational' crowd," the "'Earth goes around the Sun' crowd," the "'infectious disease is caused by microbes' crowd," the "'current species evolved from previous species' crowd" ... why won't these loudmouths just shut up already?
          • Re:Yes besause... (Score:5, Insightful)

            by CaymanIslandCarpedie (868408) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:04AM (#17842234) Journal
            Give me the Aristotle, Pasteur or Darwin of Climatology who can present irrefutable proof

            Pssst!.... don't tell anyone but none of them ever had irrefutable proof. They simply made observations, thoerized on the cause, found problems with the thoeries, refined those thoeries, etc, etc, etc.

            I don't think science is what you seem to think it is.
  • Is this the U-turn? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Nuffsaid (855987) on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:30AM (#17841854)
    This moment could be remebered as "The day the biggest CO2 producer nation in the world acknowledged a reality it ignored for years". Let's hope it's not too late to prevent irreversible runaway effects. For what it's worth, one day or another I'd like to hear some contrite words from people who stubbornly denied the need for any action about Global Warming up to now. A bit late, a bit useless, but should be an obligation for someone who may have contributed to bring the world beyond a point of no return.
              • by d34thm0nk3y (653414) on Thursday February 01 2007, @01:20PM (#17846950)
                Guys, please don't mod up factually incorrect statements:
                The problem is that the US is NOT the biggest CO2 emissions maker in the world, that title belongs to China, and India is right behind it. Yet they were exempted from almost ALL the restrictions that would have been placed on us!

                See here: The first google hit I found, with nice graphs and everything. [manicore.com]

                Choice quote: "The "big bad boys" regarding greenhouse gases are without any doubt the Americans : not only their country is the first emitter in the world, but they are also on the podium for the emissions per person, and the latter is still rising!"
  • Uh-Oh (Score:4, Funny)

    by ReidMaynard (161608) on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:50AM (#17842090) Homepage
    Dear Lara,

    On second thought, Earth is a little....eh.
    I'll keep looking.

    Love,
    Jor-El
  • by Rob T Firefly (844560) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:11AM (#17842338) Homepage Journal
    I know there are some scifi nuts of a certain age around here.. anyone else watch "V" [wikipedia.org] back in the 1980s?

    Interesting show. There are these aliens who land and ingratiate themselves with humanity. They seem friendly, wise, and charismatic, but they're really planning to take over the world. In the course of this they spread lots of FUD about scientists (who are of course the ones most likely to discover the truth about them) to the point where scientists the world over are discredited, and ultimately persecuted by humanity just for being scientists.

    Science fiction, eh? Where do they come up with this ker-ray-zee stuff?
  • by HoneyBeeSpace (724189) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:55AM (#17842952) Homepage
    If you'd like to do some of the same experiments that these scientists do, the EdGCM [columbia.edu] project has wrapped a NASA global climate model (GCM) in a GUI (OS X and Win). You can add CO2 or turn the sun down by a few percent all with a checkbox and a slider. Supercomputers and advanced FORTRAN programmers are no longer necessary to run your own GCM.

    For example, our model shows increased snowfall on Greenland (a common skeptic retaliation). This does not mean global warming is not happening, but rather what was predicted: Warmer air can hold more moisture, so there is increased snowfall. The melting on the edges is occurring faster, so overall we have mass loss of the ice cap.

    Disclaimer: I'm the project developer.
  • by mdsolar (1045926) on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:08AM (#17843156) Homepage Journal
    http://www.ucsusa.org/scientific_integrity/interfe rence/scientists-signon-statement.html [ucsusa.org] Let me be the first to welcome our new congressional oversight overlords.
    --
    The future is NOT bleak, it's sunny: http://mdsolar.blogspot.com/2007/01/slashdot-users -selling-solar.html [blogspot.com]
  • by StressGuy (472374) on Thursday February 01 2007, @11:15AM (#17844322)
    {and I'll add a few lowercase words so as not to trip the "lameness filter"}

    MMMPPHHHH!!!! MMMMMMMPPPHHHHH!!!!!
  • by Sage Gaspar (688563) on Thursday February 01 2007, @02:19PM (#17848088)
    we'd still be debating whether or not to go into Afghanistan.

    The problem with most of these scientists is they haven't figured out how to lie to the American public as effectively as the politicians. When politicians figure out a hundred different ways to take away our essential liberties with patriotic sounding names, emploring us to think about the children and defend our families from The Terrorists (TM), that's A-OK -- and please don't think I'm dividing this down party lines, there's politicians from all parties that are happy to cement their power base. When the scientific community suggests that we really ought to do something about the shit we're pumping into the atmosphere, suddenly everyone's flashing their Junior Climatologist merit badge and telling them why it ain't so.

    News flash: real scientists don't deal in absolutes. They provide estimated probabilities and sensible suggestions. Becoming more eco-friendly is not going to turn us into a pinko communo-socialist hippy state any more than, say, allowing the president to expand the scope of government is going to turn us into a dictatorship. We're ostensibly on the same team here.
    • Re:Hmm... (Score:4, Insightful)

      by CaptainZapp (182233) * on Thursday February 01 2007, @08:34AM (#17841898) Homepage

      Global warming certainly may be real, and we may be causing it. But I don't believe that the president should be taking a "stance" on global warming.

      I'd argue that the president and his minions are very well taking a stance.

      By intentionally shutting up scientists and censoring them.

    • Since (Score:5, Insightful)

      by Mark_MF-WN (678030) on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:01AM (#17843052)
      National security IS a federal concern, isn't it? If Manhattan were to end up 10 feet below sea-level, the American economy would be severely impacted and vast amounts of American infrastructure would be destroyed. Increased hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico would kill many Americans. Droughts reducing America's agricultural potential, increasing American dependence on imports? Floods in other areas, similarly destroying crops? Malaria becoming rampant in the USA again?


      You seem to be too stupid to understand the notion of consequences, so here's how it goes down: global warming == grave national threat. Think about it -- the feds can combat terrorism, and all terrorists can do is (at best) murder people and destroy infrastructure. Global climate change can utterly impoverish America and make it a supplicant nation, dependent on others for basic food-stuffs while half the population lives in shantytowns after having to abandon their flooded hometowns, and 10% of the workforce is unable to work because they have drug-resistant malaria.


      I'd say that any president who DOESN'T make global climate change their business is not just stupid and incompetent, they're also a traitor. Frankly, it's kind of surprising that you would hold your president to a lower standard of accountability that you would a hobo or, say, a dead raccoon.

        • Re:Hmm... (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Waffle Iron (339739) on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:02AM (#17843066)

          The models that the scientists are using are so primitive that they can't accurately predict real climate change.

          And how do you know this? Did you learn it from a true climate expert such as a talk radio host?

    • by Alioth (221270) <no@spam> on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:46AM (#17843768) Journal
      Sigh. You are yet another person who can't tell the difference between a meteorologist and a climatologist. A simple analogy that will help you:

      Imagine you have a pan of water on a gas stove. The meteorologist will try to predict where individual convections will appear in the pan. This of course gets quite difficult when you get more than a few seconds in the future.
      A climatologist on the other hand figures at what rate the water as a whole is heating, and the effects of putting a lid on the pan, or turning up the heat. The effects can be accurately predicted quite a long way into the future when you're looking at the entire contents of the pan, not trying to predict where each convection current will be.
        • by radtea (464814) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:15AM (#17842384)
          The Earth is a huge steady state system and it has corrected itself EVERY time in the past.

          The first part of your claim is not only false, it is contradicted by the second part of your claim. "Steady state" systems do not need to undergo "corrections". Dynamically stable systems do.

          The Earth is a huge dynamically stable system, and it has corrected itself EVERY time in the past. That is a true statement, but an uncomfortable one, because the Earth's dynamically stable climate undergoes excursions that are quite significant relative to the stability required for human civilization to thrive.

          Even local events like the Younger Dryas can ruin your whole millenia. Global events like ice ages, or the mode switching to a hot, dry climate for a few hundred or a thousand years that we see in some ice core data, can make things very uncomfortable indeed.

          Scientists are concerned about global climate change not because we are worried about the "end of all life on Earth" or some equally algorean kookery, but because we know with certainty that the Earth's climate maintains a dynamic equilibrium that will happily accomodate excursions that would make a mess of our lives and our descendent's lives, and we know with certainty that we are giving that dynamically stable system a nice wack with a hammer by increasing effective insolation by a percent or so over the past two hundred years.
    • by Black Parrot (19622) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:22AM (#17842480)
      > I don't know what it is, but when you talk to other scientists about a topic, while they're excited about it, they don't predict doomsday even if it's possible. But when you talk to a climate scientist, it's the only thing on their mind.

      Cosmologists predict a Big Rip. Solar scientists predict that the sun will swallow the earth. Some astronomers think we'll eventually get dinged by a killer asteroid. Epidemiologists are terrified by some of the strange disease that have been turning up over the past few decades.

      The difference with global warming is that it's happening as we speak, not some distant or random threat.
    • by raygundan (16760) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:23AM (#17842498) Homepage
      ...but it's one that is widely addressed. Solar intensity is certainly variable. It's also easily measurable. So here's the question: given how much more energy we're getting from the sun, are we as warm as we expect to be? The answer is currently no. We're warmer than we can account for by solar intensity alone.

      Responsible scientists are not simply talking about warming. They're talking about climate change that is both more complex than simply "it's warmer" and they're talking very specifically about change that they can't account for when they take everything else they know about into account. Natural greenhouse emissions (methane, CO2), solar intensity, how long you leave your XBox 360 on, etc... if it's warmer than we expect from all of those things, then we've got issues.
    • by Scarblac (122480) <slashdot@gerlich.nl> on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:23AM (#17842500) Homepage

      That's been debunked pretty thoroughly, see e.g. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192 [realclimate.org].

      Firstly of course, we have several satellites monitoring the Sun constantly, and its activity has been declining in recent years, as it goes towards the minimum of its well-known 11-year cycle (the article is from 2005, I guess it's probably reached by now).

      As for the Mars ice cap, see the article; it gives many reasons why it is wrong to consider this 3-year regional change to be an indication of global warming on Mars. It's not special. The article concludes:

      Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth...

    • by kestasjk (933987) * on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:28AM (#17843474) Homepage
      Why do posts like this come up over and over again?

      Don't listen to the parent; I don't care about his personal observations and flawed reasoning. Does he really think scientists haven't considered solar influences?
      "On behalf of all scientists: Thank you BoRegardless (721219)! We thought it was CO2 but we never stopped to think it was the sun! I guess we should get our noses out of the office and read Slashdot more!"
      Doesn't it strike you as amazingly arrogant to think that you have, in a single post on slashdot, shown thousands of climatologists, who have dedicated their academic lives to researching the climate, to have wasted their time?
      Don't listen to my opinions on climatology, I know fuck all about the climate.
      Don't listen to politicians; they listen to us.

      Listen to the scientists. To those reading please add one thing to your todo list for today: Print off and read the IPCC's 2001 summary report [www.ipcc.ch]. It's only 34 pages long, has lots of illuminating graphs, it's very readable and clear, and most importantly it is based on peer reviewed scientific evidence that is readily available [grida.no].

      The document above is a summary of summaries for policy makers, if you want to get into more detail:
      • See here [grida.no] for a summary of the scientific basis for global warming.
      • See here [grida.no] for a summary of the predicted outcomes of global warming (eg sea levels, global temperature).
      • And see here [grida.no] for a summary of the expected impacts on humanity (eg droughts, migration) and mitigation.
      All of these summaries have respective, exhaustive scientific documents behind them, but they do a good job of summarizing the reasoning and evidence.

      Personally I'm looking forward to seeing refined conclusions and increased certainty in estimated from the data accumulated over the last 5-6 years. I thank the scientists which the parent belittled for collecting and summarizing this data.
    • by chris88 (62904) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:24AM (#17842510)
      I think it's the Christian leaning most conservatives have.

      They believe the earth and everything on it is here for them to use. Burning lots of fossil fuels is their god-given right. The fact that there might actually be repercussions to this might (just maybe) indicate that they cannot, infact, use all of earths resources however they please.
    • by gnurfed (1051140) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:31AM (#17842628)
      From conversations I've had with "conservative republicans", I've mostly gotten variations of the following non-exhaustive list of answers:
      • "(a) Al Gore believes in global warming. (b) Al Gore is a liberal. Thus global warming is a liberal conspiracy"
      • "Today it's cold where I live, hence global warming is a fraud"
      • "There's a non-zero chance that humanity isn't causing global warming, so we shouldn't worry"
      • "I like warm weather, so I don't care"
      • "Climatologists are just fishing for more grants, which they want to steal out of my pockets"
      • "They can't predict the weather next week, so they sure as hell can't predict how it will be 50 years from now"
      • "The Apocalypse will happen before, or is related to global warming, so everything is alright"
      The scary thing is that most of the conservatives I know are otherwise quite science-literate and often accept the science communities consensus views. I'd say it's very healthy to be sceptical, but on this issue there's much more to it. Something I can't explain.
    • by t0rkm3 (666910) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:59AM (#17843008)
      I read the other replies to your post and I find it funny that 3 out of the 4 were people that have no idea why people might not like the Green agenda, but they sure do have an axe to grind with their preconceived notions of the Republican party.

      As a Republican, let me present a few points:

      1. Historically, the peers of scientists have presented political agenda's by cloaking them in jargon and supporting studies. Examples include Paul Erhlich, Rachel Carlson, Al Gore (with much support by the scientific community.) and whoever that guy was who predicted the worst hurricane season in 50 yrs for 2006.

      2.The argument is hardly, if ever, presented in a logical, coherent manner. Usually, it consists of a list of demands that (coincidentally?) line up with socialists and communists. See: the Kyoto protocol. It attempts to impose an aggressively progressive tax code on emissions, and consumption. If we don't like progressive taxes already, what makes you think that we'd like that sort of 'productivity punishment' applied to our country?

      3.The alternatives are hardly tenable at this point:
                a. Mass transport: Due to the size, shape, and demographic dispersion it is untenable for the majority of American metropolis'.
                b. Buy everyone new electric cars. For one, manufacturing all those new cars just uses more energy and produces more emissions. So people proposing that are asinine at best.
                c. Everyone should bike or walk to work. Sorry, American not as small nor as densely populated as you may believe. See 3a
                d.Solar power: Great, spend a crapload of cash and maybe make your money back. In Oklahoma, your chances of those panels paying for themselves are very probably slim. Gets worse as you go north. For the American SouthWest, they are probably a good investment.
                e. Windmill farms: Even the Greenies are confused on this one. Build'em but can't run them at full capacity because they chop up birds. (Maybe the birds will figure out that the windmill farm isn't such a great place to hang out.) Ted Kennedy opposed a windmill farm off of Martha's Vineyard as it would've obstructed their view.

      So, if the environmentalists got together and started presenting tenable solutions to our problems, then they might get more reception. For me, I understand that there's global warming, might be anthropogenic, might not... (not's seem to be getting slimmer) but until someone proposes a real idea on how to deal... we'll just deal in the way we always have. Adapt.

      Note: One of our saving graces could've been nuclear power, but the greenies shot that down too. Sucks that South Africa is using american developed technology in a pebble bed reactor. Look at the CA power crisis, while part of it was caused by collusion on the part of energy traders, it was enabled by CA's stance on building new plants. In fact, the newest power plant to provide CA with power was just built in NV. NIMBY-ism has killed several things that could make the world a more efficient place, but finding a backyard to put "it" in is rather difficult.
      • 3.The alternatives are hardly tenable at this point:
        a. Mass transport: Due to the size, shape, and demographic dispersion it is untenable for the majority of American metropolis'.


        Never been to NYC, I guess. Millions of people every day use mass transit. A large percentage of city dwellers have no car. Every American metropolis has some mass trasport. As roads become too crowded they are forced to provide more mass transit for immediately practical purposes. Your argument is simply false.

        b. Buy everyone new electric cars. For one, manufacturing all those new cars just uses more energy and produces more emissions. So people proposing that are asinine at best.

        Electric cars have less parts and are less complex. On a large scale and as technology progresses we will use far less energy to produce them. Your argument ignores progress over time.

        c. Everyone should bike or walk to work. Sorry, American not as small nor as densely populated as you may believe. See 3a

        See China. Not everyone needs to bike or walk, but easily half of the population can as they live in dense areas. You assume this argument is black and white. But if just the SUV drivers in metropolitan areas switched to bikes we'd have less traffic and save a lot of energy.

        d.Solar power: Great, spend a crapload of cash and maybe make your money back.

        First, protecting the environment isn't about making your money back. It's about having a habitable planet for our kids. Second, you ignore technological progress over time. Every year solar is getting more efficient.

        e. Windmill farms: Even the Greenies are confused on this one. Build'em but can't run them at full capacity because they chop up birds.

        You're way behind on this one. The largest, slowest moving turbines do not kill any birds. Problem solved.

        By your logic we shouldn't have telephones because it's a lot of work to put up the wires. And we shouldn't have electricity because the up-front cost to build the initial generators is so high. All of your points are narrow. They ignore the big picture, ignore some very important details, assume everything is all-or-nothing, and ignore technological progress.

        You set a great example as a Republican.
        • by khallow (566160) on Thursday February 01 2007, @12:24PM (#17845708)

          Never been to NYC, I guess. Millions of people every day use mass transit. A large percentage of city dwellers have no car. Every American metropolis has some mass trasport. As roads become too crowded they are forced to provide more mass transit for immediately practical purposes. Your argument is simply false.

          Note that the original poster qualified his statement with "most metropolises". New York City is unusual for a US city in its density of buildings and population. I have no doubt that he already knew of NYC when he posted.

          Electric cars have less parts and are less complex. On a large scale and as technology progresses we will use far less energy to produce them. Your argument ignores progress over time.

          Both you and the prior poster have unsubstantiated opinions on this. I don't see a reason that an electric car has to be either simpler or more complex than one with an internal combustion engine. And given the add-ons like power windows, computers, etc, it's not clear to me that the two will be simple to compare in complexity or that the difference between electric and gas powered is a significant difference in complexity compared to all the other stuff that gets put on a car.

          See China. Not everyone needs to bike or walk, but easily half of the population can as they live in dense areas. You assume this argument is black and white. But if just the SUV drivers in metropolitan areas switched to bikes we'd have less traffic and save a lot of energy.

          There are a lot of areas where it is black and white. In a pretty dense environment like NYC, public transportation makes sense and road travel does not due to the cost of finding a place to park. A spread out city like Sacramento, CA, for example, just doesn't have competitive public transportation and bikes are risky in the urban areas. Nothing beats the car there. There is a lot more population living in cities like Sacramento than NYC.

          First, protecting the environment isn't about making your money back. It's about having a habitable planet for our kids. Second, you ignore technological progress over time. Every year solar is getting more efficient.

          We have other goals than just "protecting the environment". Ending poverty, quality of life, progress come to mind. I see a lot of modern environmentalism undermining these other goals rather than supporting them. And the economic viability of a plan is relevant since economically inefficient plans take more resources from elsewhere and weaken our ability to accomplish these other goals.

          Outside of a full-blown nuclear war, there will be a habitable planet for our kids. Global warming isn't moving that fast and no other global threat is that significant. I don't see any nearby tipping points either. Methyl clathrate deposits on the continental shelves, the most substantial bogeyman, have around an extra 100 meters of water on them from the end of the last ice age. The extra pressure from that will counter a lot of temperature increase IMHO before they become unstable and release methane into the atmosphere.

          Your point about solar power increasing in efficiency is important. We have both solar cells that are getting very efficient at absorbing solar energy and solar cells that take relatively little energy to produce per KW of generating power. I still see some presence for fossil fuels in electricity generation for a while due to the need for stable power around the clock (energy/electricity storage isn't very good), but that can be replaced easily with nuclear power. But long term it won't make sense to burn fossil fuels for energy or transportation even if global warming turns out to be a minor issue.

          By your logic we shouldn't have telephones because it's a lot of work to put up the wires. And we shouldn't have electricity because the up-front cost to build the initial generators is so high. All of your points are narrow. They ignore the big picture, ignore some very important details, assume everything i

      • by ThousandStars (556222) on Thursday February 01 2007, @11:44AM (#17844964) Homepage
        3.The alternatives are hardly tenable at this point:

        a. Mass transport: Due to the size, shape, and demographic dispersion it is untenable for the majority of American metropolis'.

        b. Buy everyone new electric cars. For one, manufacturing all those new cars just uses more energy and produces more emissions. So people proposing that are asinine at best.

        [...etc...]

        This is actually a relatively easy problem to solve, or at least improve, and many Republicans even agree with the solution: Pigou taxes [blogspot.com]. To explain simply, this means imposing a tax on gas or oil because the negative externality oil imposes in both environmental and foreign policy terms. When the price of something goes up, the consumption of it goes down; such a tax would certainly improve the situation WRT a-c, although d and e might require other solutions.

        It's a fairly neat policy that requires no convoluted, mangled regulations; it could replace broken CAFE standards that drove people to SUVs in the first place; it also has the benefit of denying oil revenues to despotic regimes in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia.

    • by AaronLawrence (600990) * on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:01AM (#17843040)
      The definition of being "conservative" is not wanting things to change.

      Global warming, if true, forces us to face changing most of our current way of life.

      Personally, I think this traditional conservatism is just wrong. It's not a useful way to approach life, struggling against everything new that happens. But it is very human.
      • by radtea (464814) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:25AM (#17842528)
        This unfortunately is the kind of logic that makes rational argument about environmental policy nearly impossible:

        A believes fact X justifies policy P.
        B believes policy P is wrong.
        B therefore denies fact X.

        What is wrong with this picture?

        I don't deny for a moment that there are still a lot of watermellons in the green movement, but the above argument is simply a logical fallacy of the kind commited by people who care more about their politics than the facts.

        True greens recognize that imposing coercive limits on human behaviour is unsustainable. And we also recognize that markets are one of the most effective tools for changing human behaviour and gaining large efficiencies (which so long as they don't depend on contaminating or otherwise abusing the commons are also environmental efficiencies.)

        It is only when greens shed their lefty image and non-greens start making arguments based on fact rather than politics that the debate will get anywhere.
      • by Robber Baron (112304) on Thursday February 01 2007, @09:24AM (#17842516) Homepage

        2. Say "Well, looks like we're doomed anyway, and I'm sure as hell not living to 2100, so may as well pillage the planet for all its worth while we still can! This is somebody else's problem, not mine.
        Dick Cheney, is that YOU?
        • by tanveer1979 (530624) <web@@@tanveer...in> on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:43AM (#17843714) Homepage Journal

          Let me tell a fact.
          Climate change is not due to us, its due to Sun getting hotter.
          Its proved and the ultimate truth.
          Happy now?

          So what does it change?
          Does it change that the earth is getting warmer? No
          Does it change that sea levels will rise? No
          Does it change that polar ice caps will melt disrupting global weather patterns? No
          Does it change this can lead to drastic impact on world food production? No

          Your attitude is like - Diseases are not man made, so don't take antibiotics.
          If it was calculated that an asteroid will strike earth after 10 years and cause mass extinction, would you want everyone to sit on it because its not man made?

          Grow up. The problem is the concern part. Who caused it will will decide later. So if there is something Humans can do to offset nature, its better to do it before its too late. Nature being the cause won't change the fact that the global climate change is not good for us.
    • by Ambitwistor (1041236) on Thursday February 01 2007, @10:24AM (#17843420)

      No one diputes the fact that the Earth is warming.
      People still do. There is a full spectrum of global warming deniers.

      However, there is not scientific consensus that it is caused, or substantially increased, by humans.
      Among the community of climate scientists, there is now very broad consensus on that issue. If you extend your statement to include scientists who do not specialize in the climate, your claim may be true. Note that the climate skeptics tend to be people like economists, physicists, petroleum geologists, meteorologists, etc., not people who study the climate for a living.

      The inconvenient truth that Gore fails to mention is that about 10,000 years ago, the Earth was so warm that citrus fruits were growing in what is now northern Germany.
      Yeah, and 100 million years ago most of the planet was tropical. The Earth has been warmer before. So what? The problem is that the Earth is now warming at an unusually high rate, due to our influence.

      When the ice age ended, the Earth began warming, and has been warming ever since.
      Actually, the evidence is that the Earth has been slightly cooling for the last 5000+ years or so, until recently (with a little blip around the Medieval Warm period). See here [columbia.edu] and here [wikipedia.org].

      It will continue to warm, until another ice age occurs.
      That's a bold claim. What science supports it?

      The culprit is not the Earth's habitants; it is the sun, which we sometimes see in the Pacific Northwest.
      That happens to be false, for reasons given in another post [slashdot.org].

      "I do not know of a single TV meteorologist who buys into the man-made global warming hype." (from James Spann)
      That rather proves the point: TV meteorologists are out of touch with the findings of climate science, in which they receive little to no training.