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Technology Innovation Areas For 2025
Posted by
kdawson
on Wed Nov 21, 2007 05:10 AM
from the i-just-want-my-rocket-car dept.
from the i-just-want-my-rocket-car dept.
Kyle Spector writes "A global futurist research firm convened an expert panel to forecast the major areas and potential advances in technology innovation through the year 2025. This blog entry contains the full list of 12 areas and some details about each, including personalized medicine, distributed energy, pervasive computing, and nanomaterials."
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Submission: Technology Innovation Areas for 2025 - Top 12 by Anonymous Coward
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I know the first two! (Score:5, Funny)
2. Hair regeneration
consultants ? (Score:4, Interesting)
from their front-page 'Social Technologies is a global research and consulting firm specializing in the integration of foresight, strategy, and innovation.' djeezes.
On energy, they say nothing about renewable energy like solar or wind, while it's clear even to me that solar will take a very big part of the production in the next years.
transportation : 'personal transportation coordinated through wireless computer networks,' I think they're spot-on. In 2025, nobody will be allowed to steer vehicles anymore. (currently there are more deaths per year on the road than you wanna know)
Re:consultants ? (Score:5, Interesting)
About in 2025 nobody steering any vehicles anymore, I'm still waiting for my year 2000 flying car, good luck with your self steered 2025 car. Truth is, we are still VERY far from having those type of cars, and will probably never happen. What will happen (and is already happening) is that sensors and electronics will make driving far easier. For example, on the latest models of BMW, you have cruise control that keeps safety distance, on screen radar that let you see position of objects when parking, the steering wheel vibrates if you are on cruise control and go out of your lane, and many more cute things like those.
But for the moment we are quite far from letting the car drive itself, as it's really difficult to control all variables and preview all unexpected things that could go wrong. I'm not saying a human will do them better than a computer, but when the self steered car appears, it'd better be 100% safe, as people don't like to put their lives on a computer's hands.
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I want to know how he plans to make my bicycle steer itself in 2025.
No, self driving vehicles are already available. (Score:3, Interesting)
About in 2025 nobody steering any vehicles anymore, I'm still waiting for my year 2000 flying car, good luck with your self steered 2025 car. Truth is, we are still VERY far from having those type of cars, and will probably never happen
They're being implemented, now in the UK.
http://www.atsltd.co.uk/media/pictures/ [atsltd.co.uk]
But for the moment we are quite far from letting the car drive itself, as it's really difficult to control all variables and preview all unexpected things that could go wrong.
Which is why the other way to do it is to remove the variables. You then get the additional benefit of eliminating traffic congestion as well which actually makes it faster than a traditional car.
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But we've had autopilots on planes and ships for a long time now and people seem quite happy to put their lives in the computer's hands in these cases...
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Agreed. Their big deal ? Batteries. Never mind there's been no advances in them since the Li ion cell a decade ago or that there were more 2 recent breakthroughs in solar cells this past year covered on this site.
You want a real energy prediction? People in rural areas will continue to dump their oil furnaces in favour of wood. Wind t
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Re:consultants ? (Score:5, Insightful)
It costs less than the cost of public transport.
Goes at exactly the time you want it to
Allows you to take lots of luggage
Is often quicker (especially when companired to busses)
and goes from your house and travels very close to the location you want to be at.
You don't have to stand or sit next to someone you don't want to
runs through the night.
Until public transport can do all that it's never going to catch on.
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However, I'm not sure about 'It costs less than the cost of public transport'. If you already have a car/automobile then there is a good chance that a given journey will be cheaper than public transport - especially if more than one person is making the journey. However, my experience in the UK suggests that if you book plane/train far enough in advance you can often get prices cheape
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Don't know how cars are cheaper. Maybe if you're only considering gas and live in an area with no traffic or stoplights, but I also don't have to pay for a parking spot where I live, parking when I go out, insurance, maintenan
pfft...the 'predictions' are a joke, right? (Score:5, Informative)
"# With the initial mapping of the human genome, scientists are moving rapidly toward the following likely breakthroughs for gene-based products and services:
* creation of an individual's genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000
This was announced last week...no waiting. Come on down. [wired.com]
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Re:pfft...the 'predictions' are a joke, right? (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
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So it looks like they are off by two orders of magnitude
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Evolutions, not Revolutions (Score:5, Insightful)
Not that any of this means that the predicted future isn't amazing and great for mankind, of course. What's really encouraging is the focus on health and the environment. Advances in (bio) medicine, improved water purification, carbon management and engineered agriculture will arguably save and improve the lives of millions of human beings lessen mankind's impact on the environment. And it's all thanks to technology, and not
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My dad did apparently. As well as inventing the fax machine, graphical user interfaces, the European Economic Community, doormats, capitalism, speed cameras, and gravity. He just forgot to go to the patent office.
Re:Evolutions, not Revolutions (Score:4, Insightful)
The major surprise was the speed of cabling and price drops in hardware, making internet access ubiquitous.
Parent
Who's seriously been arguing "Back to Nature"? (Score:2)
Because everyone I know and have ever heard from, that doesn't resort to denialist idiocy when confronted with pollution and climate change, thinks we should be using our immense knowledge of science and technology to solve the problems we have.
Never have seen anyone saying "OMG, technology is evil, we must go back to the dark ages". It seems to be the imaginary hippy strawman that people with a financial interest use to stop people thinking about alternative power sources and more ef
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I've been on the Internet since 1989. It hasn't changed much. We just have prettier pictures now.
Universal water thing... (Score:3, Informative)
2025? Try 2008. (Score:3, Informative)
creation of an individual's genome map for a retail price of less than $1,000 - try $985
advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales - lithium? Supercaps?
very simple and inexpensive computing devices with integrated wireless telephone and Internet capabilities - www.nokia.com?
the "semantic Web," - Google? Netflix?
multiple variable and inexpensive sensors linked with computers - your door is ajar?
ultra-fine filters (probably from nanotechnology) - semipermeable membranes? Reverse osmosis?
affordable and effective carbon capture and storage technologies and systems for coal-burning power plants - riiiight... why not just re-burn the carbon after you capture it? Oh that's right, perpetual motion and all that.
identification of specific genomes for desired growing and use qualities - you mean ones that Monsanto hasn't already patented?
radio frequency tags for people and valuables - been shopping lately folks?
onboard sensors and computers for smart vehicles - your door is... we know, we know
advanced high-speed rail - presumably the high speed (400 km/h) rail we have now isn't advanced.
This reads more like someone's current R&D budget.
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advanced electric storage devices and batteries at all scales - lithium? Supercaps?
Supercapacitors based on nanotechnology will be coming within the next 7-10 years, and that will revolutionize the use of electricity, because it makes it possible to store on a large scale power generated by solar panels and wind turbines for later use. It also means electric cars don't need massive, space-hogging battery packs, since supercapacitor battery packs will be much smaller than
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Which is why I don't know why anyone bothers to read futurists predictions. They assume that current technology is going to develop in a linear fashion and it usually doesn't, the next big thing is likely going to be something completely new, or take several unrelated technologies and combine them in a new and unexpected way. Sure you can make connections through history, but rarely are they linear.
Utopia or Dystopia? (Score:4, Interesting)
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In Brownian Britain all our citizens just move about randomly bashing into each other.
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That's probably due to our binge-drinking culture :0)
In 2025... (Score:3, Interesting)
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You want a pessimistic futurist? Try reading some of Belyaev's [wikipedia.org] stories. I remember reading one of his stories about the future (2000?), where an artificial island has been built in the Atlantic Ocean, to help aircrafts cover the distance between Europe and America.
What about Space? (Score:2)
I would like to hope that within 15 or so years, we would have developed ways to send long-term exploration missions to other planets like Mars. Sure, we've sent Rovers there and the like, but I'm sure there is much more research that can be done when there are actual people present.
Another interesting possibility regarding space exploration is the possibility of finding very
very western, very expensive (Score:5, Interesting)
If you want major breakthroughs for the "other" 90% of the world they'll have to cost less than $10 to the end-user.
When all these pundits (and their audiences) start thinking in those terms, that'll be a real breakthrough
P.S. My suggestion for the list would be a viable neural interface.
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Distributed energy, pervasive computing, and carbon management too. Distributed energy technology is going to be the only way isolated parts of the world can get electricity. Pervasive computing includes computational devices cheap enough for most of the world (ie, those above starvation level) can afford. Finally, carbon management will include economic opportunities for poor countries as rich countries overproduce CO2.
And over such a short time frame, what happens to the 10% is more important than what
DUPE ALERT (Score:3, Interesting)
Well it feels like it anyway, I am pretty sure I saw this list before. Oh yeah, every damn year. It is just a blessing the flying car ain't on it anymore, have you got yours yet? Mine must be stuck in the mail. I knew there would be problems going all email.
But hey, I got time, so lets go through the whole list shall we.
Personalized medicineWith the initial mapping of the human genome, scientists are moving rapidly toward the following likely breakthroughs for gene-based products and services:
Distributed energyThe evolution of distributed energy will reflect that of computing: just as computing has migrated from the 20th centurys centralized model (powerful mainframes delivering applications to remote workstations) to todays decentralized model (PCs and networks), so energy generation and delivery will move from central to distributed sources, increasingly featuring local generators that can be linked when needed for greater output. Specific innovations will include:
Pervasive computingAlmost every device or object in consumers lives will be both smart and networked, giving rise to an Internet of things. Pervasive computing will drive the convergence of computing, the Internet, voice communications, and televisionultimately blurring categories of infotech products and services. Specific breakthroughs will include:
The reason this doesn't work (Score:2)
Social impact of technology (Score:5, Insightful)
The thing about technology is that it develops at a different rate to the social changes it causes. For instance, the social impact of the web is still happening and is likely to continue for a couple of decades, even if web technology doesn't change much. Why? Because people that grow up with a technology behave differently that those that didn't, so the profound social changes sometimes only happen when children grow up and enter active society.
sounds reasonable, but not much to read (Score:5, Interesting)
We are currently at some point of compromise between where society was when the original Star Trek was written, and where it predicts we will eventually go. The world has become much more flat, as they say, with regard to commerce, news, politics, and many other things. None of this seems to be affecting technology predictions. Well, I'll make a prediction; the things I've just mentioned will have a far greater impact on future technology than people generally give credence to.
Look at the results of what some of the current technology will bring: Health insurance industry upheaval with bio-tech innovations; big pharma industry upset with open source style medicines; auto insurance upheaval with computer driven vehicles; in general, all of the current trend in innovation is about to upset the big business apple cart. Trouble with this is not that things will change, but that third and second world countries are better poised to take advantage of it as it happens. Big businesses will fight tooth and nail to keep their stranglehold on their markets with the same determination that we have seen the **AA use. There is no good that can come from this.
I also predict that business will change in general. There will be polarization of business practices. Simply opening a company with one cash cow will not be good enough. There will be more vertical integration of business as well as more single mom-n-pop salons. Walmart and their ilk will crumble under their own weight. That seems to contradict what I said of vertical integration, but it does not. There will be more self reliance in business as technology becomes more important, and wise CEO's will see that they need in-house expertise rather than simply paying someone else to do what they can no longer trust another company to do for them. As the world becomes more flat, and regulation of industries becomes more equalized, it will not be possible for some huge multinationals to remain that way. Yes, shrinking profits is what is ahead for the globe.
It will take only one invention to upset the entire global economy, say for instance, free fuel. Hydrogen power for free or very cheap and made open source would destabilize a huge section of the global economy. None of these 'futurists' seem to get any of that in their predictions.... ?
Distributed energy (Score:4, Insightful)
The Semantic Web? (Score:2)
Maybe I should read some more recent papers on the idea, bt last I knew of it it was a pipedream and would only work in a world where everyone was honest.
I'd like to live there, it's a shame we don't.
wewantfemaleandroids tag (Score:2)
"Your android replica is playing up again
it's no joke
When she comes she moans another's name"
And that was from 1977 - Quark Strangeness and Charm is still one of my favourite LPs, even though I no longer have a turntable, the whole album's etched in my mind.
Really, though, TFA was complete tosh. Most of the 'predictions' exist now, and those that don't are easily forseeable or too vague to interpret meaningfully.
Kicking Crystal in the balls (Score:2)
If you don't think "futurism" is pseudoscience, then tell me where I can get my docrorate in "Futurism?" Or even take a single course in it (but if there are no PhDs in this pseudofield, who's teaching the courses)?
Once you reach geezerhood it's pretty evident that these futurists are so full of shit it's spilling out of their ears. You've all, of course, heard about the "global cooling" they w
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Any thoughts how we could create a fixed unit of value that would be as valid today as it will be in 10,000 years?
Short answer. You can't. The usual approach is to take the value of a basket of goods (like an ounce of gold or the constantly shifting weighted pile of stuff used in the US Consumer Price Index or CPI). But even that will depend on where you are and what methods you use to adjust for what you think are changes in the value of the goods (say via hedonics). And there's no apparent consistency between valuation methods. Even if I know the price of everything (in US dollars) in 2100, I won't know what the CPI
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Or we haven't worked out how to do it yet...
Even if it is impossible to create a unit that works over time, it should be possible to have one that works for a given moment. The basket of currencies approach seems good, if the basket is large enough. In fact these of course exist already, for instance I understand airlines use a standard currency unit for certain things. It's just that we need a universal unit that everyone knows so it can be quoted in articles like this.
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Even if it is impossible to create a unit that works over time, it should be possible to have one that works for a given moment.
But once the moment is over, you lose the valuation. Looking back, I improperly explained my argument. The problem isn't that you can't find a valuation, any combination of goods, the weighting changing in arbitrary ways, is a valuation. And people respond to changing prices. For example, you don't see a lot of buying of whale oil and beaver fur hats. Inflation also looks different based on what you do. If you raise a kid, get educated, or maintain a house, you will see more inflation than the single pers
Obviously (Score:2)