Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

News for nerds, stuff that matters

Slashdot Log In

Log In

Create Account  |  Retrieve Password

NASA Outlines Asteroid Deflection Program

Posted by Zonk on Sat Mar 17, 2007 06:22 AM
from the please-destroy-ben-affleck-as-a-side-effect dept.
An anonymous reader submitted a link to an International Herald Tribune story about NASA's answer to the movie 'Armageddon'. Specifically, they've outlined a plan to deflect a planet-killer asteroid. "In 1998, Congress gave NASA's Spaceguard Survey program a mandate of 'discovering, tracking, cataloging and characterizing' 90 percent of the near-Earth objects larger than one kilometer (3,200 feet) wide by 2008. An object that size would probably destroy civilization. The consensus at the conference was that the initial survey is doing fairly well although it will probably not quite meet the 2008 goal." With this tracking system in place, scientists are hopeful an intervention could be staged before any grim choices have to be made. Assuming they have the money and manpower needed for the effort, NASA has actually outlined a pair of procedures that dove-tail with each other: "First we would deflect the asteroid with kinetic impact from a missile (that is, running into it); then we would use the slight pull of a 'gravity tractor' -- a satellite that would hover near the asteroid -- to fine-tune its new trajectory to our liking. (In the case of an extremely large object, probably one in 100, the missile might have to contain a nuclear warhead.) To be effective, however, such missions would have to be launched 15 or even 30 years before a calculated impact."
+ -
story
This discussion has been archived. No new comments can be posted.
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
 Full
 Abbreviated
 Hidden
More
Loading... please wait.
  • by dreamchaser (49529) on Saturday March 17 2007, @06:32AM (#18384655) Homepage Journal
    With this tracking system in place, scientists are hopeful an interventions could be staged before any grim choices have to be made.

    NASA has announced that they have gathered the mother, father, siblings, and close friends of asteroid YT8OJR in order to confront it about it's continued binge drinking and other self destructive behavior before it leaves more shattered lives in its wake. Unconfirmed reports show that the troubled asteroid could be close to cracking up. Hopefully the intervention will keep it from a collision course with disaster.
  • Make things worse? (Score:4, Interesting)

    by CommunistHamster (949406) <communisthamster@gmail.com> on Saturday March 17 2007, @06:33AM (#18384657)
    Can we have an accurate estimate of the probability of a specific impact 30 years in the future? What if we change the course of an asteroid such that it has a new, better chance of hitting us the year after?
    • by omeomi (675045) on Saturday March 17 2007, @07:07AM (#18384783) Homepage
      There was an interview with a guy on NPR concerning this...from what he was saying, the answer is basically, yes...things in space don't change direction unless something else hits them, so in theory, it is possible to predict an impact 30 years in advance. The main problem is that our ability to model trajectories isn't fine-grained enough to do so, yet.
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        things in space don't change direction unless something else hits them

        By hit you also mean the hit of gravity from a close encounter, right?
        • Of course. Thing is, there's a whole lot of nothing up in space. For an asteroid to travel 30 years without coming anywhere near a large object isn't that difficult to imagine...
    • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

      I think in this day and age the requirement for accurate estimates are outweighed by the desire to put nuclear weapons in space.

      You can imagine Peter Sellars in the War Room on the phone to China explaining that the nuclear deterrent is to deter asteroids, and in no way is trying to arm space.
    • by mosel-saar-ruwer (732341) on Saturday March 17 2007, @09:44AM (#18385759)

      In the case of an extremely large object, probably one in 100, the missile might have to contain a nuclear warhead.

      On earth, a nuclear weapon causes damage via its atmospheric shock wave - it's the motion [kettering.edu] of the air that causes buildings to fall down [or implode, or whatever].

      Do we even know how a hunk of rock would react to the introduction of a bunch of alpha particles/gamma rays/x-rays/infrared radiation/etc? How would the the crystalline structure of the rock be affected? What models do we have that indicate the rock would shatter from an internal heat differential, rather than merely glowing very bright red for a while [assuming the rock even chose to absorb the heat energy in the first place, rather than just deflecting it off into the void of outer space]?

      By contrast, underground detonations of nuclear devices are very benign events, and release vastly less energy than a small earthquake or a small volcanic event.

      It's only the gaseous shock wave of an atmospheric detonation that causes damage to humans & their metropolitan areas - in the vacuum of outer space, with no atmosphere [i.e. with no gas, hence no gaseous shock wave], a nuclear detonation might not be that big of a deal.

      • by flyingsquid (813711) on Saturday March 17 2007, @10:39AM (#18386097)
        On earth, a nuclear weapon causes damage via its atmospheric shock wave - it's the motion of the air that causes buildings to fall down [or implode, or whatever].

        Much of the damage caused by nuclear weapons, particularly hydrogen bombs, is actually from the intense heat released; the thermal energy is capable of causing severe burns miles from the point of explosion even after the air has absorbed most of the radiation (which is why, believe it or not, "duck and cover" isn't such bad advice). My suspicion is that you would want to detonate the bomb some distance above the asteroid; the heat would cause the surface of the asteroid to vaporize, and the gas jetted from the surface would shove the asteroid off course.


        • My suspicion is that you would want to detonate the bomb some distance above the asteroid; the heat would cause the surface of the asteroid to vaporize, and the gas jetted from the surface would shove the asteroid off course.

          Empty space varies as R-cubed, and the spherical effects tend to degrade as 1 over R-squared.

          It doesn't take much of an R to make that asteroid look like a tiny, insignificant needle in the vast, overwhelming haystack of empty space.

          Cf Derbyshire's critique of Whedon & the "n [nationalreview.com]
          • by zCyl (14362) on Saturday March 17 2007, @04:20PM (#18389321)

            Empty space varies as R-cubed, and the spherical effects tend to degrade as 1 over R-squared.

            It doesn't take much of an R to make that asteroid look like a tiny, insignificant needle in the vast, overwhelming haystack of empty space.

            Without doing any calculation, I presume there's an optimal distance away which is somewhere around a quarter or a third of the asteroid's diameter. Presumably someone would simulate this properly before launching a nuke all the way to an asteroid.
      • "Do we even know how a hunk of rock would react to the introduction of a bunch of alpha particles/gamma rays/x-rays/infrared radiation/etc? How would the the crystalline structure of the rock be affected? What models do we have that indicate the rock would shatter from an internal heat differential, rather than merely glowing very bright red for a while [assuming the rock even chose to absorb the heat energy in the first place, rather than just deflecting it off into the void of outer space]?"

        Most of the he
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 17 2007, @06:49AM (#18384711)
    CTDF (Chair Throwing Defense System) is a highly effective method of deflecting incoming, civilization-threatening asteriods which are on collision course with our blue planet. The procude is as follows:

    1. Fly satellite up there
    2. Make satellite paint a big-fat google logo on the asteroid
    3. Let Steve Ballmer have a look through telescope
    4. Provide him with practically insufficient supply of chairs
    5. Wait
    6. Danger avoided
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 17 2007, @07:39AM (#18384917)
    1 km could be a civilisation killer? don't think so: http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ [arizona.edu]

    Your Inputs:
    Distance from Impact: 250.00 km = 155.25 miles
    Projectile Diameter: 1000.00 m = 3280.00 ft = 0.62 miles
    Projectile Density: 3000 kg/m3
    Impact Velocity: 40.00 km/s = 24.84 miles/s
    Impact Angle: 80 degrees
    Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
    Target Type: Sedimentary Rock

    Energy:
    Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.26 x 1021 Joules = 3.00 x 105 MegaTons TNT
    The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.8 x 106years

    Atmospheric Entry:
    The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 67700 meters = 222000 ft
    The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 39.8 km/s = 24.7 miles/s
    The impact energy is 1.25 x 1021 Joules = 2.98 x 105MegaTons.
    The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 1.1 km by 1.08 km

    Major Global Changes:
    The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
    The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
    The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

    Crater Dimensions:
    What does this mean?

    Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.

    Transient Crater Diameter: 17.2 km = 10.7 miles
    Transient Crater Depth: 6.08 km = 3.77 miles

    Final Crater Diameter: 25 km = 15.5 miles
    Final Crater Depth: 0.78 km = 0.484 miles

    The crater formed is a complex crater.
    The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 10.9 km3 = 2.62 miles3
    Roughly half the melt remains in the crater , where its average thickness is 47.1 meters = 154 feet

    Thermal Radiation:
    What does this mean?

    Time for maximum radiation: 0.54 seconds after impact

    Visible fireball radius: 16.6 km = 10.3 miles
    The fireball appears 15.1 times larger than the sun
    Thermal Exposure: 6.78 x 106 Joules/m2
    Duration of Irradiation: 280 seconds
    Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 24.2 (Flux from a burner on full at a distance of 10 cm)

    Effects of Thermal Radiation:

    Much of the body suffers third degree burns

    Newspaper ignites

    Plywood flames

    Deciduous trees ignite
    • That megatonnage is equivalent to a few thousand Trident submarines. Granted that most of it is wasted making ground zero even more incandescent, but a lot of the ejecta and the smoke from incinerated cities will stay in the atmosphere and create a non-nuclear "nuclear winter". Plus odds are 2-1 that it will hit an ocean, and remember that most of the world's population lives near coastlines. Ocean strikes are also more effective at coupling impact energy into the atmosphere.

      At least we'd have spectacular s
  • I've seen Armageddon and it just isn't possible unless you bring in the world's best deep core oil drillers, ok?
  • Since launching materials in space costs money, why not mine these potential resources and milk them for all they are worth? Lots of iron, water, and other useful minerals can be extracted. Need a radiation and particle shield for the space station? Tow that rock on over there and latch onto it! Those rocks are floating gold mines in space.
    • Since launching materials in space costs money, why not mine these potential resources and milk them for all they are worth?

      Oh, I have no doubts asteroid mining will one day be a huge driving force for the commercialization of space. Once it's practical and cost effective, we'll do it. But regardless of the value of an asteroid's material composition, it is decidedly *not* useful if it's headed right for us on a collision course. Nudging such an asteroid just enough to be captured into Earth orbit ra

  • I've always wondered if we could create a device that does the following:
    1. Go into a position above the plane on which the planets rotate around the sun so it looks "down" on the solar system.
    2. flash a bright light of a specified color every day at a certain time.
    3. read back the ping signature of the solar system's objects with a light sensitive camera.
    4. plug the changes into a computer.
    5. calculate trajectories of all objects.
    6. determine exactly which ones are on a bee-line for earth.
    7. continue to mo
  • Are we going to stop it _BEFORE_ or _AFTER_ it destroys Paris? Also, 15-30 years is a bit longer than usual, it normally only takes 112 minutes or so..
  • Who's going to fund this, and does that organization immediately become the supreme planetary overlords for having successfully saved the entire planet from complete destruction?
  • by bryan1945 (301828) on Saturday March 17 2007, @08:45AM (#18385377) Journal
    Come on, all we need is 3 weeks and Bruce Willis and his drilling buddies to defeat any asteroid. Geez, don't any of you watch the historical videos?
    • Re:Bruce Willis (Score:5, Informative)

      by necro81 (917438) on Saturday March 17 2007, @10:14AM (#18385923) Journal
      Ya know, Armageddon (the movie) [wikipedia.org] cost about $140 million to make. For that same budget, we probably could have finished a very good survey of any Near-Earth Asteroids, create a detailed mitigation plan, and start building prototype hardware to send up. You probably could even get Jerry Bruckheimer to film an overly dramatic documentary filled with lots of sound effects in space and slow-mo hero scenes.
  • NASA has to make it more difficult than it has to be...

    a plausable idea would be to use a nuclear bomb, not to destroy the asteroid or meteor but to detonate the bomb before it gets too close leaving the asteroid or meteor mostly intact, the blast wave from the bomb can be strong enough to push it out of the way...
    • ... the blast wave from the bomb can be strong enough to push it out of the way...

      And what exactly does this blast wave consist of? The ether? Phlogiston? Cowboy Neal?

      SteveM

  • Does NASA even have a rocket capable of intercepting an asteroid with something as heavy as a gravity tractor? They have some spare Saturn V rockets sitting around?
  • The thing about space is that small pushes over long times can work better than splashy big short ones.

    Why bomb the asteroid when you could keep ion engines running for decades instead? Or maybe find some point in its orbit where it's going between two heavy bodies and a small change will tip it one way or the other and make a big difference?
    • real existing ion engines have thrust appropriate for a small payload over years, a kilometer wide ball of goop is going to need something hugem and detecting a collision fifty or hundred years before it happens isn't possible right now
  • I thought NASA was just complaining that it didn't have funding to do something like this.

    Was that just a build up to make them look more important when this got released or did they find funding from their Doom and Gloom apropriations aproach?

    OR maybe all the discusion NASA not being able to fund [slashdot.org] this exact program was sparked because someone didn't know what was going on? The government doesn't work this fast in approving funding so how could it be possible for them to all the sudden have it now? Especial
    • Re:Get a life (Score:5, Insightful)

      by omeomi (675045) on Saturday March 17 2007, @07:15AM (#18384821) Homepage
      How crazy do you have to be to think that an asteroid is a real threat for humankind? *shakes head*

      Well, unless you've seen any dinosaurs lately, an extinction event has happened in the Earth's past at least once. Yeah, the chances of it happening again in our lifetime are infinitesimally small, but the consequences of *not* deflecting an asteroid if it comes our way are especially dire. I, for one, am all for the "just in case" planning in this regard.
      • by leenks (906881) on Saturday March 17 2007, @07:52AM (#18384999)
        Oh come on - how crazy do you have to be to think this is true? Everyone knows there were no dinosaurs! Fossils are merely artifacts put there by God to test our faith. Don't you "scientist" types know *anything*?

        • It'd be better to invest more in that than to play Armageddon. That's what the dinosaurs thought, and look where it got them.
        • You are probably going to die of something other than an automobile accident. Does that mean that the auto industry should stop spending billions on crash tests and safety features (airbags, crumple zones, ABS, seatbelts, etc)? No.

          True, there are other, more pressing issues in the world, and so the asteroid thing should be on the back burner, but that does not mean that we should turn the back burner off. People can multi task, so lets do it.

        • Re:Get a life (Score:4, Insightful)

          by Yvanhoe (564877) on Saturday March 17 2007, @08:08AM (#18385113) Journal
          There are many other things (wars, diseases, maybe terrorism) which are much more likely to destroy civilization as we know it.

          Considering how well money has been spent on projects like "the war to end all wars" and the "war on terrorism", I would say that a project to deflect asteroids looks very wise in comparison. Whereas, I agree, the research on diseases is an important and underfunded domain (yes, I'll consider it underfunded as long as I have a life expectancy inferior to two centuries). Anyway, it's "just" a few millions dollars spent on watching pebbles in the sky, an activity that could be useful and do no harm, and it goes back into the economy anyway...
          • yes, I'll consider it underfunded as long as I have a life expectancy inferior to two centuries

            The elite of the Renaissance spent the wealth of nations funding alchemists who promised to discover the Elixer of Life; throwing money at a problem will not cause a 300% increase in our adult lifespan.
            • The elite of the Renaissance spent the wealth of nations funding alchemists who promised to discover the Elixer of Life; throwing money at a problem will not cause a 300% increase in our adult lifespan.

              Maybe not, but I wish I could write grant proposals like that.

    • It's called `insurance' or `risk management.' While it's true that insurance companies tend to get cast in a negative light because, well, their accountability and complexities are terrible and they tend to screw people over, the having of insurance is still important. Just because the odds of something occuring are small doesn't mean that you shouldn't plan for the possibility of disaster. We had the dinosaur extinction, and we've had near-earth impacts that have wiped out hundreds of thousands of squar
    • >How crazy do you have to be to think that an asteroid is a real threat for humankind? *shakes head*

      You have to be crazy enough to realize that civilization is more fragile than the species is, and crazy enough to realize that if an explosion the size of Tunguska or even smaller goes off near the India-Pakistan border the world will be breathing radioactive fallout for years.

      You also have to be crazy enough to do basic math and work out the odds of intolerable damage on a time scale of hundreds or thousa
      • You bring up a valid point, but it actually raises more questions than answers, IMO.

        1. The NASA program isn't set up to detect asteroids small enough to "only" cause a Tunguska event.
        2. If we did detect it before it happened, it would probably be with only enough time to evacuate the area. Which is a lot better than doing nothing, mind you.
        3. What kind of overreaction would there be if the world knew a Tunguska-size asteroid was heading our way?
    • Im sorry, but after reading your first paragraph i really must ask:

      Are you doing crack?
      • Re: (Score:3, Insightful)

        This is an interesting case. Naturally, your first response to OP's allegation that some people in the government would intentionally risk causing the end of humanity is: Nobody is crazy enough to do that. But then it hits you: Obviously this bozo is.

        So now I don't know exactly what to think.

        • This is an interesting case. Naturally, your first response to OP's allegation that some people in the government would intentionally risk causing the end of humanity is: Nobody is crazy enough to do that. But then it hits you: Obviously this bozo is.

          So now I don't know exactly what to think.

          Well, unfortunately, I think the GP is not the only crazy that would think like this. There are a lot of extremists out there that think the Earth needs a good cleansing and are not afraid to die themselves. Whether they could ever get their hands on an asteroid steering system is another question.

          Crazies aside, there is a good reason to steer an NEO closer to Earth. It would make a great resource if it could be coaxed into orbit, especially if it contained smeltable metals or was big enough to serve as

          • It's a far-reaching scenario, but the government hasn't done a shred of work to deserve the trust you seem to place in them to "at least have that border they'll never cross"; actually, they've shown quite the opposite.

            the United States has detonated exactly two WMDs in anger. This was done so because the projected loss of life from the war it averted was significantly higher than that of the WMD attack. And the gov't took immediate claim for it, just as they've taken immediate claim for any major militar
    • Off Topic (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 17 2007, @08:16AM (#18385171)
      This post comes up every once in a while. I always find it really amusing. Slashdot is essentially a trade magazine; it targets and draws IT professionals, usually a very high-paid group of people and not a group likely to live in their parent's basements. Then there is somebody who takes the time to sit around late Friday night/Saturday morning, and hit the refresh button over and over until he can get the first post (ie, somebody without a job, a girlfriend, or probably many friends) and uses it to accuse a community of well paid professionals of living in their parents basements.
      • heh, there's no end of ways an illusionist could produce your Mysore miracle. it's a hoax, honest.
    • There's nothing fluffy about a gravity-satellite. Except that their vision has only one, directly above the asteroid.

      Since they're continuous thrusters, gravity tug doctrine should be to put the tug in halo orbit, and put more than one. Many relatively small launches are easier than one big launch after all, and they can be replaced as they fail without losing 100% thrust. The orbit would also mean that the exhaust would be less obscured by the payload.
    • They're going for 90% of all bodies 1 km across. They don't ignore smaller bodies (indeed, many have been found), it's just that a) smaller bodies are harder to see and b) there's way, way more of them. So for example, you might have 90% of 1 km bodies, 60% of all 900 m bodies, 30% of all 800 m bodies, and so on. Whatever the actual numbers are (I just made those up to illustrate the point), the goal is to locate the civilization-enders first, with progressively less threatening bodies being located later.