The Dozen Space Weapon Myths

Thanks to Disowned Sky for finding a good debunking piece on space based weapon systems. Slightly disheartening, because I really want to have solar energy satellites that are also lasers. The article does a good job of looking further afield at nations besides the United States efforts in this area.

Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[AKAImBatman (238306)]

Seems the author of the article reads Slashdot. Anyone remember back when the "official U.S. position on space weapons" story broke? As I recall, there was a torrent of comments (especially from those who failed to read the document) suggesting that the space policy was that only the U.S. was going to have access to space. Some even went as far as to suggest that just because it's not in the "official" document, that it was the actual policy regardless of what the public part of the document stated.

Well, here's The Space Review's take on it:

2. The latest United States "space policy" declares that it will "deny access to space" to those players it deems hostile, which translates to pre-emptive attack on non-US space objects and their supporting ground infrastructure.

Western news dispatches from Moscow, reporting on Russian official complaints about the policy, stated that it asserted the right "to deny adversaries access to space for hostile purposes," and that it claimed the right (some say "tacitly") for the US to deploy weapons in space. Vitaly Davidov, deputy head of the Russian Space Agency, complained: "They [the US] want to dictate to others who is allowed to go there."

But the actual policy document makes no such claim and displays no such intent to "deny" access. The Russian anxiety, echoed on the editorial pages and in news stories around the world, is apparently based on some over-wrought page 1 stories in US newspapers, written by people too careless to actually read the original US document and subsequent official US government clarifications, or too eager to misinterpret it in the most alarmingly stark terms.

On another topic, the author makes a very good point about the 1967 Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. i.e. The same treaty that is credited with preventing the development of the Orion nuclear pulse propulsion vehicle. As item 9 points out, the Soviets had continued nuclear space development in violation of a treaty that had been signed specifically to prevent them from doing that. The Polyus ASAT Platform [astronautix.com] that was launched on the back of the first Energia in 1987 (and thankfully failed to make orbit) was intended to have nuclear weapon capabilities. The translations of the Polyus diagrams show that it would have carried "Nuclear Space Mines" to target and destroy missiles and satellites.

So much for that treaty. :-/

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[voice_of_all_reason (926702)]

As item 9 points out, the Soviets had continued nuclear space development in violation of a treaty that had been signed specifically to prevent them from doing that.

See, that's the beauty of nuclear weapons. Once you have them, other nations are really no longer in any position to lecture you about developing them -- unless of course they're willing to enter into nuclear war over it.

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[cdrguru (88047)]

The problem is that both the US and Soviets had an interest in maintaining their population of workers. Starting, or even fighting a war that involved loss of 10% of the population wasn't considered to be reasonable.

This is far, far less of a concern in other parts of the world where citizen and martyr can be used interchangably.

A serious consideration in the US attacking civilian targets in Soviet Russia was that the civilians were not exactly taking an active part in government. Do you really think that even in the face of a nuclear attack on Israel there would be a massive US retaliation on civilian targets? Especially if the attacking force was a stateless body like Hizbollah? Further, if a post-attack retribution bill was introduced into the US Senate, would a majority vote to wipe Iran off the face of the earth? Or maybe just try to find a few important targets?

Iran has nothing to fear from a US retalitation, and we have spent the last 20 years proving it. We either stop them on the front end, or we will do ... nothing. And they know it.

Re:

[zippthorne (748122)]

We've had enough media hysteria about "nookyoolear" that we don't even build nuclear power plants anymore. I think there would be sufficient public outcry following a nuclear attack (even just a "dirty-bomb") to release the nuclear arsenal. And politicians always do whatever they think will get or maintain power. Only a few clear-thinking military officers could stand in the way.

Which brings to mind the important question: "What should we do if attacked domestically with nuclear weapons by a non-state a

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[voice_of_all_reason (926702)]

I never understood that argument. Not every country has to go through the Manhattan Project stage again; the knowledge has already been discovered. They can theoretically buy/steal materials (enriched uranium) or parts (missile casings and launchers).

As for the other oft-used argument (not yours) that they would not be able to reach their primary target (problably the USA), or could be countered by them -- getting the ability to target a nearby enemy (probably Israel) might persuade other nearby powers t

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[Dun Malg (230075)]

Not every country has to go through the Manhattan Project stage again; the knowledge has already been discovered. They can theoretically buy/steal materials (enriched uranium) or parts (missile casings and launchers).

Except that the Manhattan Project was all about discovering everything you left out. Just have uranium and a launch vehicle is not enough. That's the easy part. Making it explode reliably, that's the very, very hard part. There really is more to it than just smacking two chunks of uranium together any old way.

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[Rei (128717)]

Not to mention that Iran's current power plants are aging (the country spent the 80s and first half of the 90s either at war or recovering from it), and yet their population growth is faster than ours and their GDP growth nearly twice as fast as ours. They really do need power. Prices of oil are high, so they certainly don't want to use that. I wouldn't be surprised, if they weren't able to use nuclear power, if they started importing coal. Joule per joule, it's a much cheaper. Coal is ~$25.00 per shor

Re:

[Rei (128717)]

I should add that I'm not stating that Iran *doesn't* want nuclear weapons. Personally, I think that they see it as a "have your cake and eat it, too" situation: nuclear power, and if they ever need to, the ability to start a nuclear weapons program and complete it within a year of its inception.

My point is that even if you couldn't develop nuclear weapons using a civilian power program as cover, Iran would likely still want the program. It's a source of prestige, too. Iranians resent being seen as a th

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[bill_mcgonigle (4333)]

So much for that treaty. :-/

Yeah, all of 'em.

It seems from the story, and just pragmatism, the best option is to hope the folks who have the best weapons are the most friendly types. If the cold war is any lesson, the people with the most freedom create the best economic engine, and thus in turn the richest state, and then in turn again, the best weapons.

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[bill_mcgonigle (4333)]

"Well, there's no official acknowledgement of them--that proves they exist in secret" (as if the absence of evidence were transformed into evidence of presence).

If I recall, that the 'Russians' had weapons that weren't detectable nor acknowledged and that was the justification for many of the cold war ramp-ups in defence spending (because they must have found some way to hide them from detection). That should have been a major cold war lesson. Sucks when the same logic is applied to US anti-sat weapons.

I'm not sure I follow your point, please elaborate. Are you arguing that the absence of evidence is evidence of absence? That's on approach guaranteed to be wrong when analyzing secret military projects.

Or that the USSR didn't have secret programs? We found just the opposite after the USSR collapsed - they were trying to keep up with us, on the B2 and other similar programs and wound up bankrupting themselves trying to do it.

Or that we don't have secret projects anymore?

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[notque (636838)]

The intention of weaponizing space is clear. It's an attack system, and any and all such systems should be banned, and destroyed on launch.

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[sumdumass (711423)]

Actualy it does. It works under the considition that air based lasors that we are attempting to build works. We can deny any country access to space by this weapon alone if it works as advertised.

The situation would be something like this, Several of them would be deployed to hot spot areas. Some would be in patrol mode while other would be in standby mode. When we detect a launch, boom, it doesn't hit space and drops on the country that shot it.

It isn't like some peace loving country is going to just secre

Re:

[Alzheimers (467217)]

All you need to do is threaten some brainy college kids, and boom: five-megawatt laser by mid-may, capable of vaporizing a human target from space.

Simple!

--files this comment under K for "toy"

Re:Hey look, just for Slashdot!

[Rei (128717)]

I have problems with this article.

1. To a foe, our ability, which he admits, to blind or jam satellites, might as well be the ability to destroy them. Literally destroying them is certainly worse from an environmental perspective, but tactically, blinding them is just the same in the middle of a war, and one certainly ought to expect other countries (including those with less military resources who feel threatened by the US) to attempt to gain the same tactical ability to deny satellite access.

2. "But the actual policy document makes no such claim and displays no such intent to ?deny? access." One of many blatantly false claims in this article. I did "actually read" the policy, and it states:

The United States considers space capabilities -- including the ground and space segments and supporting links -- vital to its national interests. Consistent with this policy, the United States will: preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space; dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so; take those actions necessary to protect its space capabilities; respond to interference; and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests

3. Space-based weapons *do* have a major advantage over ground-based ones: there is no boost phase. They have the potential to give *much* less warning and reaction time. Consequently, they're more destabilizing. It's the same reason why short range (tactical) ballistic missiles were banned: they reached their targets too quickly. Also, is he really so daft as to believe that the Bush adminstration *hasn't* been trying to create "usable" nuclear weapons? There's a new statement from an "anonymous administration official" (and sometimes named ones) every month or so about things like nuclear bunker busters and the like.

4. "Most discussions leave the impression the Russian system simply doesn?t exist." Undoubtedly, the author is talking about the S-400/A-135 network. It's certainly a threat to even our best warplanes (think a patriot missile battery on steroids, with a much longer testing history), but with the 100 km upper range for the biggest missile configurations (if memory serves), it's not going to be shooting down satellites, even low ones, any time soon.

5. "Equating a boost-phase anti-missile weapon (based at sea, on an aircraft, or even in space) to an anti-satellite weapon overlooks a fundamental design difference, their guidance mode." -- Apparently this person has never heard of THAAD. Not all of our systems are boost phase.

6. Yes, and the Istrebitel Sputnik was a response to the US's SAINT program ('60-'62). Was the SAINT program a response to anything? Not really. We discontinued it, but it was too late by then. We started it. Now, it was long enough ago that arguments about who started it are pretty moot, but still, if you want to pick hairs, like this person does...

8. "The enormous advantage of an orbital system (even if launched only hours or days before making its attack) is that simply by selecting a larger booster, the weapon can be sent into nearly any orbit of potential interest, at any altitude" -- No, that's the advantage of a ground-based system. Having to enter orbit is an extra delay and takes extra energy. The lowest-energy, fastest way to intercept a satellite at 400km? Be below it and launch 400km straight up. Being in orbit allows for incremental homing of the killer satellite, providing a simpler, more reliable, but slower kill. And who knows what he's thinking about when he writes about changing the orbit with "the moon's gravity". If he's talking about a lunar transfer orbit, he must be ignorant of the huge amount of time and delta-V needed for such a maneuver; it'd be foolish. If he's talking about the lunar perturbations of satellites already orbitting at GEO, that takes years. I have no idea what he's thinking. Anyone have any clue?

9. Very low o

Re:

[arivanov (12034)]

You missed 12 which is complete and utter bullshit.

Russia is right to be pissed off with missile batteries in Europe and is rightly pointing that they have no other function but to sour Russia relationship with Europe.

These missiles provide sabre rattling capability for some political elements in the ex-Soviet block who are anti-Russian to the point where they would like to have a Hitler statue erected on their capital's main squares. While every military specialist is aware that such missiles will be usele

Re:

[AKAImBatman (238306)]

Why don't you drop the charade and log in? I think we all know who you are, doc.

Well, as I recall, the bulk of the conversation was about your Nuclear Space Drive conversation

Funny thing. I posted a "yay, nuclear space drive!" post, and yet practically none of that thread is about nuclear space drives. In fact, it would seem that nearly the entire thread attempts to prove how "Bush [is] throwing away the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty like he did the Geneva Conventions". Heavy on anti-Bush comments, low on actual

My personal favorite

[ArcherB (796902)]

12. Other nations are justified in building "space weapons" because the US has done so, or is about to do so.

This argument never seems to work both ways. It always justifies any other country's space weapons, laying the blame on something the US has done, may do, is thinking about doing, or is merely accused of doing in the mass media. But it never seems to justify any US hardware-development response to actual space weapons deployed by other countries, from the cannon mounted on a Soviet manned space station, to its operational killer satellites and orbital nuclear weapon launchers, to the recent Chinese anti-satellite missile test. The US did not respond in kind to those weapons because they made no military sense--there was no mindless reflex, but instead a rational assessment of security requirements. Those assessments usually can be made regardless of the actions of other parties, especially regarding the level of required space weapons.

Unfortunately, too many people use the "US does it" excuse to justify the nuclear proliferation of other countries (read: Iran). I feel this is an accurate counterpoint to such an argument.

Re:My personal favorite

[vertinox (846076)]

Unfortunately, too many people use the "US does it" excuse to justify the nuclear proliferation of other countries (read: Iran). I feel this is an accurate counterpoint to such an argument.

Um... That was the whole point of MAD. If one side did it, both had to do it to ensure no one used it. It may not be moral, but it is logical to create any type of weapons in response to the fact the other side has done so.

However, this in itself in the past was a benefit to the US because it can afford to build such technologies whereas the other sides could not afford it and simply force them into submission by outspending them. (See: Regan vs the Soviets)

Sure, Iran could make nukes, but economically they are pointless to them other than nuclear energy since using them would entail the extermination of 90 million Iranians by a US retaliation response. Besides... The could inflict more political damage and gain so much more with using proxy groups like Hezbollah than actively taking on the US directly in a nuclear arms race.

However, China on the other hand... Well, we are seeing for the first time in 50 years a nation that could soon simply outspend us on the military front.

At sometime in the 2020s to 2030s it won't be us chiding others for doing things because we did them but rather trying to justify our new weapons because "China had them first."

Re:

[ArcherB (796902)]

However, China on the other hand... Well, we are seeing for the first time in 50 years a nation that could soon simply outspend us on the military front.

China's military budget for FY2007 is about $44.94 billion. The US military budget for FY2007 is $532.8 billion. (source [yahoo.com]) Eventually, China may outspend the US, but they need about a 1250% increase to do so.

Um... That was the whole point of MAD. If one side did it, both had to do it to ensure no one used it. It may not be moral, but it is logical to crea

Please, for the love of God

[PIPBoy3000 (619296)]

No jokes about solar powered sharks with frikin' lasers in orbit.

Overly Ideal is Bad in Any Case

[WED Fan (911325)]

Overly ideal treaties, laws, bans, etc. are just bad.

While banning the militarization of space is a nice idea, it would be nearly as difficult to implement as the demilitarization of our oceans.

Existing treaties that are overly idealistic have had the bad side effect of limiting or halting the development of other projects (as mentioned before: Orion).

I say, militarize, it will happen, then defend. If the U.S. and Russia were to be the only ones to abide by a non-militarization of space, eventually, the other players, India, China, and Japan, will gain the supremecy in space and eventually on the ground. Space war will be the new air war.

Who cares how new a technology is if it works?

[Phanatic1a (413374)]

FTA:

But since the 1985 air-launch satellite intercept, a project cancelled by Congress (see "Blunt arrows: the limited utility of ASATs", The Space Review, June 6, 2005), there is no evidence that a new satellite-killer technology has been developed

So what? Who cares if no new ASAT technology has been developed if the old ones work just fine? The Soviet orbital ASAT program predated the US's F-15 ASAT program by over a decade, and it worked.

Re:

[Erwos (553607)]

Probably because there's no working ordnance left?

If the program got terminated in 1985, that means the weapons left from it are at least 22 years old. It strikes me that there's a fair chance that few to none of them even work any more, and that we don't have any way to produce more on a moment's notice. This exact situation is discussed in Tom Clancy's book "Red Storm Rising", in fact.

However, there's another thing: the current US military wants weapons they can deploy as fast as possible (the TacSat prog

Re:

[LWATCDR (28044)]

Actually I would bet that no working ASATs are left. The first stage was a SRAM. The SRAM was removed from service because of ageing problems. The solid fuel was cracking...
Also the ASAT couldn't reach geosync so it wasn't useful for taking out most communications satellites.

Terminating other sattelites

[voice_of_all_reason (926702)]

You don't need anything near this sophisticated. Just send up a few barrelfuls of used pinball machine parts and let orbit take care of the rest. Of course, that's assuming you don't need to use space for the 50 years or so it will take them to disintegrate either.

Re:

[Kineticabstract (814395)]

Why would your "few barrelfuls of used pinball machine parts" EVER disintegrate? What's magical about the 50 year mark that would cause metal parts to spontaneously fall apart? Just curious.

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[Rycross (836649)]

He probably meant that its how long it would take their orbit to degrade to the point of re-entry.

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[Martin Blank (154261)]

The problem with that is that it's unrealistic. Debris from the Chinese test is expected to remain in orbit for thousands of years. Pop enough satellites in a major war, and space may truly become unusable for decades or centuries. I suspect that if it came down to it, we'd soft-kill enemy satellites. The ABL is going to be ready for use in a couple of years, and it might be suitable for taking out an enemy satellite without shattering it.

Re:

[twiddlingbits (707452)]

For the uninformed, "soft-kill" means to disable the electronics via a huge burst of radidation or heat, or to disable the solar arrays so they have no power source, or to disable communications antenna's or all of the above. Without power, electronics or comms they are just a hunk of space junk. It's a much better way than leaving lots of debris in orbit from using a kinetic kill but a kinetic kill is a lot easier and pretty much 100% successful.

Well crap...

[physicsboy500 (645835)]

There go my plans to make a life-sized replica of the Death Star!

Re:

[Billosaur (927319)]

Psssssssstttttttt... what do you think the Moon is? Huh? Huh? That's why there all these "conspiracy theorists" claiming the Moon landings were faked... wink, wink... nudge, nudge...

Time travel is possible, and NASA has it

[will_die (586523)]

Forget all those press stories from scientists currently around that say time travel is impossible [foxnews.com].
We now have proof that NASA and the US Military have it.
As clearly started in this article, from a guy in NASA, the US Military is talking about going back in time by 7+ years and put a missle defense system in Czechoslovakia.

Re:

[Danathar (267989)]

Yes. I hear that the contracting company who will build it also built the tsunami wave generator now operating in the Indian Ocean.

Item 5 is not a correct statement.

[foxxlf25 (672758)]

Item 5 is just wrong. The current weapon technology (NMD) to shoot down incoming MIRV's are designed to target the warhead after it has already past the stage of burn and been released. The key issue is determining the fake warheads from the real. In space (the target point of impact) is also the hardest to determine fake from real. The sensor packages and analysis of that data is the critical piece to making them work correctly. And heat trails is not part of that. Heat trails for targeting are only used

Item 5 IS a correct statement.

[wiredog (43288)]

It's talking about a boost-phase [cbo.gov] anti-missile weapon.

Re:Item 5 is not a correct statement.

[twiddlingbits (707452)]

Trying to hit the warhead AFTER it has re-entered and is using decoys is exactly the WRONG time to hit it. You want to hit it BEFORE it is released from the booster if at all possible. It's a bigger target to hit, you hit it and you got all the warheads. Technology does exist to distinquish decoys from real warheads but it's not 100%. Killing the wrong target can ruin your day. Currently ASATs use several different technologies to find the target, not just the heat (IR) signature. What is used, when it us used and how it is used classified.

I'm all for poking fun at tinfoil hatters...

[by Anonymous Coward]

But half these myths contradict the other half.

First, it says putting missiles in space is expensive and slow "Even planning a space-to-space attack can take hours or days or longer for the moving attacker and target to line up in a proper position."

But wait! The Soviets "demonstrated the high reliability of the operational Soviet 'killer satellite'". Not only that, but there is an "enormous advantage" to orbital systems.

Also "They could even use the Moon's gravity to surreptitiously slip into the high-altitude orbits of key US observation, communications, and navigation satellites." Only if the government continues to cut the junk-tracking budget, otherwise any "junk" moving strangely would be noticed pretty quickly. Also, based on the orbit of the junk that's been around since the dawn of the space program, the Moon's gravity does not cause sudden major orbital changes, and I would suspect that with no other propulsion, the Moon's gravity is not enough to prevent the orbit of a "stealth" satellite with no boosters from decaying.

Noy sure about this one...

[by Anonymous Coward]

References to the "latent antisatellite capability" of the embryonic US anti-missile system in Alaska are somewhat disingenuous since Russia has a deployed anti-missile system with launchers around Moscow and in Kazakhstan, with much the same capability and nobody seems to complain. Most discussions leave the impression the Russian system simply doesn't exist.

Yes, it exists and has existed for decades, however, it was explicitely allowed under the ABM-Treaty [wikipedia.org]. The US was allowed to build such a system for North Dakota but I'm not sure if we ever followed through with that. However, a national system was what the treaty intended to prevent, which it did until we decided to withdraw from the treaty in 2002.

Safeguard

[sean.peters (568334)]

We did, in fact, build such a system [wikipedia.org]. It consisted of a bunch of nuclear-tipped SAMs, plus cueing radars, etc - 60's era technology was not sufficiently accurate to do anything but get the interceptor in the general vicinity of the incoming - hence the need for nuclear warheads. My impression is that the system wasn't considered very cost-effective.

The Cold War wrote

[theolein (316044)]

They want their Soviet Union back.

The article is part fact and part of the same kind of tit for tat idiocy that brought and perpetuated the Cold War for over 40 years. "The Americans did this", "The Russians so totally did too" kind of crap that is this article is just painful to those of us who lived through the red scare bullshit of the Cold war. Not only that but the article tries to paint Russia as still being the Soviet Union. They talk about anti ballistic missiles being based in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is and has been independent since 1991. It leases the old Soviet manned rocket launching site at Baikonur to Russia, but it, along with the Ukraine and Byelorus destroyed all of its Soviet era nukes in the 90's, and no longer hosts any strategic Russian military equipment.

Re:

[Hoi Polloi (522990)]

"The Russian statements are so preposterous...The technological flaw is simple: missiles launched from Czechoslovakia, say, cannot ever hope to intercept missiles launched from Russia against America"

The author jumps to the intercontinental missle scenario. If he bothered to look at a map he'd see that much of Russia (i.e. St Petersburg) is within range of intermediate range missles fired from European sites. With the Baltic states itching to join NATO and Poland already in the club I don't blame Russia f

Shorter Space Review...

[sean.peters (568334)]

This article is highly amateurish and just about content-free. Shorter "Space Review":

1. Myth: The US already has satellite killers.
   The Space Review: No they don't! (no citation given)
2. Myth: The US wants to deny space to those it considers hostile.
   TSR: No they don't! (no citation given)
3. Myth: The US is planning to place weapons in space for the purpose of ground attack.
   TSR: No they aren't! (no citation given)
4. Myth: The US ballistic missile defense systems have the capability to shoot down satellites.
   TSR: So what, the Russians have the same capability!
5. Myth: Tests of space based BMD systems also are preparations for an ASAT capability.
   TSR: Let's confuse the issue by only talking about boost-phase BMD intercept!
6. Myth: The Russians have declared a moratorium on ASAT weapons testing.
   TSR: No they haven't! (no citation given)
7. Myth: The Russian's "killer satellite" never worked very well.
   TSR: Yes it did! (no citation given)

I stopped reading at this point. This whole article is nothing more than a fact-free propaganda screed. I can't believe Slashdot even bothered to post it... on second thought, yes I can.

Sean

Re:

[sean.peters (568334)]

Geez, I never SAID he was wrong! I just said that he hadn't proven any claim! I wasn't the one writing a big article in an online journal, so I don't feel like I'm obligated to prove or disprove his claims... that's HIS job!

Sean

All they need are nudgers, not explosives

[jayslambast (519228)]

I'm amazed at how everyone wants blow up sats. Its not in anyones interest to leave all that space debris around for other satellites and spacecraft to be hit with. It seems like it would be better to launch multiple satellites that latched onto the target and pushed it into the atmosphere. The victim satellite burns up on reentry and there isn't all that crap floating around to poke holes with.

Re:

[nuzak (959558)]

> The article seems to fly in the face of the left's beliefs.

Yes, slanted articles are often like that. I wonder if the Space Review is an extension of the National Review.

> I predict many anti U.S./Bush screeds.

Congratulations on being the first to bring up Bush.

Re:

[pilgrim23 (716938)]

If you really want to know about this subject the best place to look is not the splash press releases, the sensational science reporters, the cool art work and "artist's conceptions". The best place to look is the loading dock. Check the procurements of various contractors, check the announced developments, and, check the one greatest security leak in America: The Congressional Record.

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[PPH (736903)]

I'm employed. I don't have that much free time on my hands. Besides, if we all hung around the loading docks, it would get pretty crowded.

That's what reporters are paid to do for us.

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[faloi (738831)]

That can't be right. The quote didn't even have the word "billions" in it once, it can't be Sagan.

Re:

[aadvancedGIR (959466)]

And, as a bonus, there can always be an accident where 5000 tons of iron are accidentally dropped on Teheran at mach 30 after a failure in the atmospheric reentry system.

Methinks you're smoking something

[sean.peters (568334)]

So rather than deploy weapons into space to defend terrestrial resources, why not get our resources from space? The cost to do either are pretty much the same

The costs are pretty much the same? I'd really like to see the cost analysis on that one. I strongly suspect that you pulled that "estimate" out of your nether regions.