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Scientists Predict Big Solar Cycle

Posted by Zonk on Sat Dec 23, 2006 06:24 PM
from the batten-down-the-planet dept.
Space Science
An anonymous reader pointed us at a post on the Physorg blog, which discusses the possibility of an upcoming period of intense solar weather. We've discussed this before, but increasingly the evidence looks like 'Solar Cycle 24' (due to start in 2010 or so) is going to make life interesting here on earth. From the post: "Hathaway explains: 'When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm.' In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful: 'The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,' says Hathaway."
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[+] Backward Sunspot Heralds Next Solar Cycle 73 comments
GoramFrackinWacko writes "A backward sunspot chronicled on July 31st heralds the next solar cycle, and it looks to be a big one! From the article: 'Satellite operators and NASA mission planners are bracing for this next solar cycle because it is expected to be exceptionally stormy, perhaps the stormiest in decades. Sunspots and solar flares will return in abundance, producing bright auroras on Earth and dangerous proton storms in space.'"
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  • Solar Cycle 24 (Score:4, Funny)

    by The Living Fractal (162153) <execyte&execyte,com> on Saturday December 23 2006, @06:26PM (#17350302) Homepage
    Hmm, is that the cycle where we see one day of the Sun's life, and during that day the sun gets shot multiple times, saves the president, arrests the president later, gets beaten mercilessly, heals completely, and saves the girl, all in one day.. Or am I confusing this with something else...?

    TLF

  • H-alpha filters (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Average_Joe_Sixpack (534373) on Saturday December 23 2006, @06:37PM (#17350350)
    I know many in the amateur astronomy community are gearing up for this cycle, and are saving their pennies for H-alpha filters [thousandoaksoptical.com] & telescopes. [coronadofilters.com]

  • Wondering... (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Darundal (891860) on Saturday December 23 2006, @06:41PM (#17350356) Journal
    ...if anyone more knowledgable about the subject for me could tell me;

    A: What areas of the Earth are likely to be most and least affected
    B: How bad are the effects supposed to be
    C: What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

    Thanks

    • Re: (Score:3, Informative)

      by jonfr (888673)
      Check out NOAA webpage about this. The most affect areas are going to be the sunlid areas of the planet. But see more here, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html [noaa.gov]

      • Re:Wondering... (Score:4, Funny)

        by Dunbal (464142) on Saturday December 23 2006, @08:54PM (#17350924)
        The most affect areas are going to be the sunlit areas of the planet.

              Well DUH! Thank you, Captain Obvious!

      • I can't believe no one has mentioned this, but that correlates neatly with the end of the Mayan long count calendar [wikipedia.org], signalling the end of the fifth age and mankind (according to some sources, also a new beginning of some sort), and the start of the sixth. Heres an excerpt from the article:

        The end of the 13th b'ak'tun is conjectured to have been of great significance to the Maya, but does not necessarily mark the end of the world according to their beliefs, but a new beginning or time of re-birth. Acco

    • Re:Wondering... (Score:4, Informative)

      by Darlantan (130471) on Saturday December 23 2006, @07:00PM (#17350454)
      Well, the poles tend to see a lot of magnetic activity, for obvious reasons. Given this, I'd say that if you want the least effects, the equatorial regions are where to be.

      Having said that, I'd like to point out that (due to the scale of these things) they're global events. If a big flare heads our way, it could cause global disruptions. A big flare could effectively disrupt global radio communications, as well as wipe out multiple sattelites. Power grid hits are also a possibility.

      If you are thinking about heading for greener pastures to avoid this thing, my advice to you is not to bother. If you're REALLY worried, get some power filtering equipment/UPSes and a backup generator.

      If you aren't worried...well, I have it on good authority that (if the weather is right) being out on the water during these events can be very spectacular. I had a relative who was out on one of the great lakes during calm weather, and according to him the aurora was spectacular. The smooth water reflected the lights overhead. Personally, I plan on heading north to see the show.
    • You would be safest in a deep cave, but when all else fails, your Mom's basement will do too... ;)
    • Just in time for all those thousands of new hams who were waiting for the Morse requirement to be dropped. Things should be hopping on 6 and 2 meters. Better start digging the foundation for that 100 ft tower tomorrow.

    • What are some examples (links to articles or research) of previous effects that may be widely known (other than the Aurora)

      This one makes you think a bit

      http://www.centerfirstamericans.com/mt.php?a=36&h= firestone [centerfirstamericans.com]

      Specifically:
      "The enormous energy released by the catastrophe at 12,500 yr B.P. could have heated the atmosphere to over 1000C over Michigan, and the neutron flux at more northern locations would have melted considerable glacial ice. Radiation effects on plants and animals exposed to the cosmi
      • Maybe this 'armageddon' is not man made but the sun does it, after all the Egyptians called their Sun God RA.

        And technically, the sun does provide all energy and gravity for us to live off.

        So come 2012 the rapture time, high intense radiation, mutants of all species will be made, super humans maybe with special powers.

        Maybe half or most of the population will die and not make it past the 'enhancement' but what ever does make it will
        be uber next gen upgraded like in mutantX.

        Are any scientists experimenting w
        • Ridiculous? Yes.
          Silly? Yes.
          Off Topic? Most likely.
          Funny? A lame attempt, but some may consider it funny.
          Insightful? No.
          Interesting? In an "Oh god that is so lame" sort of way, yes, I suppose.

          But it is NOT flamebait. If you MUST mod down a post such as this rather than putting mod points to better use modding up a better post elsewhere, at least moderate it correctly. That post is in no way flamebait nor is it a troll.
          • And he sure is a fun god.

                  Yep, pretty much all the sun god worshippers all over the world were into this "human sacrifice" thing... why don't we go back to sun worship?

  • Inconstant Moon type interesting (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Nom du Keyboard (633989) on Saturday December 23 2006, @07:23PM (#17350558)
    How interesting? Inconstant Moon type interesting? I heard we were going to have a big Atlantic Ocean hurricane season as well. I'm still waiting.

    My point is, such forecasts of such still poorly understood phenomena still seem to go wrong much more often than they go right. And then when someone does happen to hit it right all I seem to hear is, "See, we knew all along. Now listen to us always!"

    • It's even worse than that. For any given prediction, there's probably somebody making it. For instance, this guy [commondreams.org] predicts that global warming will cause an ice age. I'm not saying that's right or wrong; my point is that combined with the traditional predictions about what global warming will do, the end result is that the entire gamut is covered; no matter what, somebody gets to be right.

      The problem is that in our wonderfully complex world, being right about an event doesn't particularly imply that you are
      • He has a loyal following, even though 99% of the time he's wrong.

        Typical of most religions.

        Yet far more people trust astrologers than scientists.

        That doesn't mean they're right. But the swindlers who are after a buck know that if you dazzle people enough, they will gladly part with their money. Everyone loves a show. Science, on the other hand, doesn't give a damn what people THINK. Which is why there's not much of a "following", except from rational people. Back
  • So does this mean we can predict solar flares and use them to travel to the past or the future?
  • ...like the Sun has PMS.
  • This year was supposed to have several MAJOR hurricanes, worse than ever before, because of "Global Warming".
    IIRC, 11 were predicted. Zero appeared.

    I suspect this Solar catastrophe prediction will be just as accurate.
    • I hope it's accurate because we rarely ever get to see aurora from southern New England. I've seen it only once. :(
    • IIRC, none landed. Very different thing. Plenty of hurricanes out to sea, this year, though the late El Nino screwed up the original forecast. The oceans are warming quite nicely - twice the originally forecast rate, I believe, with truly massive die-offs in the zooplankton globally and an extremely stable and rapidly-growing dead zone off the Oregon coast. Forecasts for global climate change have been revised sharply now-wards, as a result of more recent studies on ocean currents and ocean temperatures.

      As

  • It is all explained here [nasa.gov].

    Their forecast is based on historical records of geomagnetic storms. Hathaway explains: "When a gust of solar wind hits Earth's magnetic field, the impact causes the magnetic field to shake. If it shakes hard enough, we call it a geomagnetic storm." In the extreme, these storms cause power outages and make compass needles swing in the wrong direction. Auroras are a beautiful side-effect. Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 yea

  • Spaceweather.com has linked to a number of predictions over the last year or so regarding the next solar cycle. What is left out is that no evidence has ever been given showing showing that any method has proven to be accurate in the past. I challenge anyone to find such data.
  • Looks like 10 meters will be open for DX in a few years. Maybe even
    some 'crossing the pond' on 6 meters too!

  • Cool... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by exp(pi*sqrt(163)) (613870) on Saturday December 23 2006, @09:12PM (#17350998) Journal
    ...gotta start saving for that H-alpha telescope. Believe it or not, for about $500 you can buy a telescope that allows you to view the sun through a filter with a bandwidth of less than .1 nm. This [freeuk.com] gives you an idea of what you can see with it.

  • Ham radio and cycle 24 (Score:4, Interesting)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday December 23 2006, @09:33PM (#17351048)
    The amateur radio community (Yes, we're still here) is waiting with baited traps for the "Peak of '24". Ya see, its only in the cycle peaks when amateur radio becomes too much fun. Times like now, in the valley of solar near-death, we have to fight to maintain any contact with our buddies. Remember when Cb radios would skip from Alaska to Mexico? That was a solar maximum, and a weak one at that. Imagine what you could do with a legal kilowatt of power and a well engineered antenna! I know some of the old timers who are literally praying for a few more years before they go "silent key" in order to reap the harvest of contacts that is predicted. If you wish to experience the true camaraderie of thousands of geek friends and associates, during what may be the most interesting solar cycle yet, start studying for that ham ticket. We've made it even easier than ever before. See ya down the log.
  • If you're going to make a solar powered bicycle, why not just make it normal sized?
  • Oh, great ... the sun has a big cycle on the way. No doubt it will be bitchy and irritable beforehand. Like we need that.

  • December 21st, 2012 (Score:3, Funny)

    by SilverwoodUG (853342) on Saturday December 23 2006, @10:56PM (#17351346) Homepage
    6 to 8 years in the future?
    It doesn't land on December 21st, 2012 does it?
    End of the Maya Calendar [wikipedia.org]
  • If Bush had only gotten his environmental policies right, things like this wouldn't be happening. Surely this has to be a human-induced event like global warming, it cannot possibly be a natural phenomenon!

  • Back in 1990... (Score:3, Interesting)

    by pixelguru (985395) on Saturday December 23 2006, @11:54PM (#17351604) Homepage
    I remember the last big solar event back in 1990 - cable TV had just become available at my parents' rural house that summer, but we enjoyed the first several months of HBO with fuzzy pink fringe and lots of static due to all the solar interference. Anything was better than our old aerial reception though, so we lived with a pink Crypt Keeper and Dream On.

    In the fall, I went back to school in western NY state (Alfred University, near the NY/PA border), and on many nights in December, we could see vivid Auroras even over the campus light polution. At the time, I didn't think it was possible for them to be visible at such a lattitude. If the next maximum ends up being as strong as predicted, we might even see them farther south.

  • December 14th (Score:3, Informative)

    by From A Far Away Land (930780) on Sunday December 24 2006, @02:14AM (#17352162) Homepage Journal
    I enjoyed the aurora last week. They were so intense, they were bright even to the south of me. Photos at the link in my signature if you're curious. I've animated them too.
    • How about you actually learn what's happening instead of thinking Crichton isn't fiction?

    • Re:Damn them solarians! (Score:4, Funny)

      by DevelopersDevelopers (1027018) on Saturday December 23 2006, @07:30PM (#17350588)
      Calm down. It may look like Slashdot doesn't care about the plight of the Solarians right now, but I swear we'll pledge our support just as soon as the Sun releases them under the GPL.
      • It may look like Slashdot doesn't care about the plight of the Solarians right now, but I swear we'll pledge our support

        I for one welcome our new Solarian overlords!

        Bet you didn't see THAT one coming, did ya? ;)

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