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Capitalizing on Melting Polar Ice

Posted by ScuttleMonkey on Sat Oct 15, 2005 07:32 PM
from the 05ers-just-doesn't-have-the-same-ring dept.
efuzzyone writes "As an affect of global warming, the polar ice caps seem to be slowly receding, what do you do? The NYT reports it is a gold rush, 'the Arctic is undergoing nothing less than a great rush for virgin territory and natural resources worth hundreds of billions of dollars.' Also, 'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries.'"
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  • Yep (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:35PM (#13799855)
    I can hear Pres. Bush's spin on it now: "...Just imagine the further untapped resources we could discover by not joining the Kyoto agreement."
    • It was President Clinton who first refused to agree to the Kyoto Protocols. Another fact, left out so you could take a cheap shot on the President. Oh well.
      • Re:Yep (Score:5, Informative)

        by jcr (53032) <jcr@mac.cUMLAUTom minus punct> on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:57PM (#13800512) Journal
        Actually, the Kyoto treaty was unanimously rejected by the senate. See Senate Resolution 98 (1997).

        -jcr
      • Re:Yep (Score:4, Informative)

        by TheDracle (836105) on Saturday October 15 2005, @10:33PM (#13800648)
        http://www.environmentaldefense.org/pressrelease.c fm?ContentID=499 [environmentaldefense.org]

        It's easy to overlook 'facts' when they are in reality fiction.

        In reality Clinton's administration negotiated, supported, and he personally eventually signed the Kyoto protocol.

        "Former President Clinton's vice president, Al Gore, negotiated the treaty for the United States and had a major role in its final form."

        According to Wikipedia:
        "On June 25, 1997, before the Kyoto Protocol was to be negotiated, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95-0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States". On November 12, 1998, Vice President Al Gore symbolically signed the protocol. Aware of the Senate's view of the protocol, the Clinton Administration never submitted the protocol for ratification."

        The criticism is that Bush doesn't support the Kyoto protocol. If Clinton commanded a congress with a dominant Democrat majority, as Bush commands a Republican majority, the Kyoto protocol would have passed under his administration.

        His administration undeniably supported the Kyoto protocol.

        It seems very strange for me to hear conservatives, which I'm sure you undeniably are, cry foul at simply criticizing the policy of the Bush administration. The only way you could find these criticisms innately negative, is if you agreed that the policy they criticize is innately negative. Clinton suffered an array of actual 'shots' that had nothing to do with his policy, by 24 hour cable news networks, and independent councils; working full time to dig up information on fabricated crimes he supposedly committed (yet predictably never yielded anything substantial).
        • Re:Yep (Score:5, Insightful)

          by maelstrom (638) on Saturday October 15 2005, @11:49PM (#13800915) Homepage Journal
          "U.S. Senate unanimously passed by a 95-0 vote the Byrd-Hagel Resolution (S. Res. 98), which stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory ... "

          "If Clinton commanded a congress with a dominant Democrat majority, as Bush commands a Republican majority, the Kyoto protocol would have passed under his administration."

          Please explain to me this contradiction. Or are you saying that there was 95 Republicans in the Senate and 5 Democrats?

      • by Doc Ruby (173196) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:27PM (#13800357) Homepage Journal
        No, we've got Euro politicians and businesses who accepted Kyoto - without "ruining their economies". Now they're ahead of us in conservation and development of alternative energy. Although we Americans are whining (well, *you* are, anyway) while we drag everyone else down with our pollution.

        The worst American politician whiner was Bush, who whined "we'll give you something better than Kyoto" when he rejected it. Just another lie from Bush, who has given us nothing but tax rebates on SUVs that did nothing but further break the environment, and even break the American carmakers' future sales, driving them to the brink of bankruptcy.

        Just to complete your Bushwacko rhetoric, your "aren't worth the paper they're printed on" was Bush's comment about our Social Security "lockbox" that he looted, referring to the debt he owes us to finance his $3TRILLION annual budget, his $45TRILLION in committed debt. When, in fact, those Social Security debts, backed by US Treasury Bills, are by law the highest priority debt obligation of the US government. Bush is talking about defaulting on America's $TRILLIONS in debt, which would do for our country what he's been doing to the economy and the environment. And you're happily parroting his insane talking points. You really deserve the ecocaust you're courting. But I don't.
          • That's a conveniently odd mix of economic policies in your post. For one, Europe's economy hasn't changed for the worse by executing Kyoto - those problems already existed. If all the doomsaying about Kyoto in the US were accurate, following it with their already weak economy would have absolutely destroyed them. The lesson is that the US, with its stronger economy, is even better positioned to execute Kyoto - and even more of a producer of benefits, as we produce most of the damage that would be cut. Then compare your capitalist view of Europe's plight with your socialist view of who should pay to reduce Greenhouse accumulations. Not exactly consistent economically, but certainly consistent politically, protecting the US from accepting consequences of our pollution production.

            Kyoto has controls for both emissions and sinks. One reason Russia embraced it is that Russia does produce quite a lot of carbon fuels (they've got the world's largest reserves), but also has the largest area that can be reforested. They're in the carbon sink business. But the problem with your plan, which they'd favor, is that emphasizing the sink now more than the emissions would pass all that pollutiuon through the atmosphere. Like protecting polluters from liability as long as they clean it up later - or someone cleans it up later. Like exonerating a thief if they give back their loot when they're done using it.

            Kyoto isn't the best, or last, solution to Greenhouse pollution. But it's better than nothing. The US has embraced nothing as our solution. Which is unacceptable, especially as Bush lied about responding to Kyoto with "something better", which he has certainly not. So Kyoto isn't good enough - it gets us all started, and gives us something to learn from. It's a global industrial policy, with our civilization's survival hanging in the balance. We've already squandered a decade ignoring it here, where we can best execute it for maximum benefit, so we have that much more ground to make up. Many scientists warn that the tipping point, beyond which accommodations like Kyoto won't be enough, might pass within a decade. It's certainly far too late to make procrastinating arguments for doing nothing, that merely build our polluting industries. We've got to do something to save ourselves, while we argue about what better we can do with the time that Kyoto has bought. Europe is making us look stupid, though we're doing at least half of the work to do so.
        • A.C. you make an excellent point!

          I find humor in the root-level comment, but there is a deeper underlying issue with the Kyoto agreement that doesn't settle well with my view on it.

          Sure the U.S. pollutes a great deal; we also use something like 1/6 of all of the world's resources. But to my understanding (and I may be wrong), we put out a lot less pollution than China or India.

          I have family that has recently travelled to this part of the world, and they've had a hard time adjusting to the pollution that exists in that part of the world... Smog is everywhere I'm told.

          Yeah, the U.S. can do a lot to clean up its own act, but the rest of the world has a long way to go, too.

          Now, why should the U.S. foot the bill for the rest of the world?
          • by skids (119237) on Saturday October 15 2005, @10:41PM (#13800671) Homepage
            If we took a leadership role, rather than being pulled by the ear, in developing renewables and conservation technology, then when China finally decides to face up to the music, because the enviro-riots they already have happening there every month get way out of control, we will have an export industry to sell them products to get their crap cleaned up. Might take a good chunk out of that huge trade deficit we owe them.

            Unfortunately doing so would require both business and political leaders with vision. Something we lack bigtime.
          • by LS (57954) on Sunday October 16 2005, @02:25AM (#13801778) Homepage
            But to my understanding (and I may be wrong), we put out a lot less pollution than China or India.

            Hmm, perhaps you knew you were wrong in the first place, but besided to say it anyway? Well, yes you are wrong. The US is by far the worst polluter (OVERALL, not Per Capita) in the world. The difference is that they don't pollute into the heart of their urban areas, so it's not visible to the average citizen. Some statistics to back this up:

            Carbon Dioxide Emissions [nationmaster.com]
            Energy consumption [ourplanet.com]

            The central argument of your whole post is destroyed when you discover that your basic premise is wrong. Everyone in the world agrees that there is man-made global warming. Only in the US has the propaganda been strong enough to still sustain a debate, no matter how senseless. EVEN BUSH finally admitted [bbc.co.uk] that humans are causing global warming. Perhaps you need to admit to yourself that it's possible you could be wrong, and that the attachment to your lifestyle and your nationalism is what makes you so apprehensive of seeing the truth.
  • and, (Score:5, Funny)

    by Hawthorne01 (575586) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:36PM (#13799863)
    beachfront property in Sacramento!
    • Nah (Score:5, Informative)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:42PM (#13799903)
      Sacramento is in the middle of a valley with a big river (coincidentally *also* called Sacramento) running through it. If anything, Sacramento will be on the bottom of the California Archipelago's Great Central Sea.
  • by Anonymous Coward on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:36PM (#13799868)
    When the air gets too polluted to breathe, I'll finally be able to make my money selling oxygen franchises! I love the free market!
  • Wow! (Score:5, Insightful)

    by springbox (853816) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:37PM (#13799871)
    polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries

    With all of these benefits who cares about preventing damage to our environment?!</sarcasm>

    • Re:Wow! (Score:4, Informative)

      by operagost (62405) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:38PM (#13800407) Homepage Journal
      If you look at the temperature trends for the Arctic region since 1880, it appears that the Arctic generally warmed somewhat until about 1938. From 1938 until about 1966, the Arctic cooled to about its 1918 temperature level. Then, between 1966 and 2003, the Arctic warmed up to just shy of its 1938 temperature. But in 2004, the Arctic temperature again spiked downward.

      Now if the 1880-1938 warming trend had continued up until this day, there certainly would be some significant warming in the Arctic region to talk about. From 1918 to 1938, alone, the Arctic warmed by 2.5 degrees Centigrade. But the actual temperature trend is much different, showing that there's been hardly any overall temperature change in the Arctic since 1938.

      Not only does the temperature data contradict the claim that global warming is overtaking the Arctic, but data on greenhouse gas concentrations ought to drive a spike through the heart of the claim.

      During the warming period from 1880 to 1938, it's estimated that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide - the bugbear of greenhouse gases to global warming worriers - increased by an estimated 20 parts per million. But from 1938 to 2003 - a period of essentially no increase in Arctic warming - the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increased another 60 parts per million. It doesn't seem plausible, then, that Arctic temperatures are significantly influenced by atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases.

      And even when the Arctic re-warmed between 1966 and 2003, the warming occurred much less aggressively (about 50 percent less) than the 1918-1938 warming and at about the same rate as the period 1880-1938, despite much higher greenhouse gas levels in the 1966-2003 time frame.
      See article here [foxnews.com].
      Especially take note of this chart [junkscience.com]
      • Re:Wow! (Score:5, Insightful)

        by eh2o (471262) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:28PM (#13800133)
        Yes, the environment can adapt and recover, but really the problems that global warming entails are problems for *humans* -- primarily issues of health and economics.
  • Great. (Score:5, Funny)

    by Sebby (238625) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:37PM (#13799872)
    "lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage; new cruise ship destinations; and important commercial fisheries."

    Great. Add more pollution to the area. Just what it needs! :)

     
  • And thats not all (Score:3, Interesting)

    by Don_Casper (923158) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:39PM (#13799879)
    Not to mention the rising waters flooding pacific islands. Good trade off, cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded, and cruise destinations in the polar region open up.
    • by amightywind (691887) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:23PM (#13800110) Journal

      Not to mention the rising waters flooding pacific islands. Good trade off, cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded, and cruise destinations in the polar region open up.

      Ever wonder why many Pacific islands are at sea level? Most are volcanoes eroded to sea level. They become atolls through processes of erosion and a buildup of calcium carbonate that form a ring around the eroded ediface. As sea level rises deposition by coral will equalize with rising sea level. Indeed, flooding by major storms is the *only* mechanism where new material is deposited above sea level at all! This is not new. It has going for the last 12000 years since the end of the last ice age as sea level has risen several meters. So relax, the Pacific islands aren't going anywhere. Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?

      • by KwKSilver (857599) on Saturday October 15 2005, @10:54PM (#13800720)
        Have little effect on sea level. It is floating already. However, if the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps melt, there will be a serious increase in mean sea level. Greenland meltdown is estimated to yield about 7m (circa 23 feet) rise in sea level according to this [bbc.co.uk]. Should the Antarctic cap go as well, sea level would increase over 70m (about 230ft) according to this [www.hi.is] source. Seven meters puts me on the beach, 70+ meters puts me in the position of having to breath water, which I've yet to succeed at..
      • Flooded = gone (Score:5, Insightful)

        by Dire Bonobo (812883) on Saturday October 15 2005, @11:31PM (#13800837)
        >>> cruise destinations in the pacific get flooded
        >
        > So relax, the Pacific islands aren't going anywhere.

        But anything built on them or growing on them will be going away if/when they get flooded.

        The islands may indeed catch up to even something like a 5m rise in sea level, but even if it's in such a ridiculously short time as 100 years, that means (a) they cease to exist as islands for the near future, (b) they're scoured of all terrestrial life, and (c) all buildings and equipment on the islands are destroyed.

        In other words, the islands are gone, at least as far as current human use of them is concerned. Witness what 5m of flooding did to New Orleans in just 3 weeks.

        > Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?

        A fine question indeed.
      • by choongiri (840652) on Sunday October 16 2005, @12:53AM (#13801314) Homepage Journal
        Tuvalu [wikipedia.org] has a plan to evacuate their entire population over the next 10 years. The country will cease to exist.
        Why do people discard rational thought when discussing the Kyoto treaty?
        You tell me.
  • How ironic (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Pinball Wizard (161942) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:42PM (#13799891) Homepage Journal
    that global warming would lead to new oil discoveries.
  • DONT FEEL RIGHT (Score:3, Insightful)

    by ICEcalibur (923176) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:42PM (#13799893)
    "Also, 'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage" I think the melting ice will unlock a treasure all right....and its a treasure that we should bother looking for....like pandoras box..???
  • Anyone.. (Score:3, Insightful)

    by Turn-X Alphonse (789240) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:50PM (#13799937) Journal
    Anyone else feel sick when you read things like this? If the human race is that fucking stupid then we deserve to drown in the flood we'll end up making. Saddly a handful will probably survive it.. most likely the rich ones who can aford to hoard boats, food and drinkable water...

    Money : Because killing 6 billion people just to make some more was so worth it, now that it's totally useless because everyones dead and paper has no use when it's already doodled on.
    • Wow, it's going to be just like the movie Waterworld. A lot of people said that movie sucks, but obviously it holds the keys to survival in the future. I'm going out to buy my copy right now, along with the other 4 billion of you. Who knew! Maybe even Duke Nukem forever will provide useful information ... if it arrives in time.
      • Re:Anyone.. (Score:5, Informative)

        by Yorrike (322502) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:24PM (#13800117) Homepage Journal
        Having almost finished a geology degree (3 exams to go), I've run through the exercise of calculating exactly how high the ocean would go if the ice caps melted many a time.

        Here's the thing, if there's more water, there's more weight on the crust, which will subside a bit. Cutting a long story short and without explaining the ins and outs of crustal isostasy, if your house, water source and farmland is above 75m in elevation, you'll be alright.

        Otherwise, to quote Tool's very appropriate song Aenima, learn to swim.

      • But what would happen, billions of years in the future, once all the ice melts, and all the land erodes to a point where it's pretty much all flat, and therefore water does cover the entire surface? I wonder how long it would take for this to happen, or if it could ever happen, because land would be recreated by shifting techtonic plates, and volcanos and such.
        • Re:Anyone.. (Score:5, Insightful)

          by CastrTroy (595695) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:00PM (#13800239) Homepage
          Look at the recent flood in America.. now think of that flood was in one of the African slums where they can hardly eat.

          Kind of like that tsunami that hit indonesia a little while back. Tons of devastation, killed over 100,000 people. Wikipedia reports only 1200 deaths from hurricane katrina. Only 2000 US soldiers have died in Iraq. 200,000 Allied soldiers died during the battle of normandy. Americans don't even remember what real devastation is, and some have never ever experienced it. At least not first hand. They hear about it on the news, but it's hard to relate to pictures on a tv screen. Maybe this is why so many people forget how vulnerable we are. Because in the last 50 years, there has been very little in terms of real devastation.
  • by britneys 9th husband (741556) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:51PM (#13799946) Homepage Journal
    Great, I can fulfill my lifelong dream of going on a cruise from the Yukon to Siberia. Meanwhile, all the good cruise ship destinations will be closed off because hurricane season will last 10 months.
      • by ccmay (116316) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:30PM (#13800142)
        this Florida land boom will get snuffed out by hurricanes just like the last one did way back in the 20's.

        This can't be right. George Bush wasn't even born then. How could there possibly have been hurricanes, or any other evil or dangerous thing?

        Oh! I see: Halliburton Co., founded 1919. That explains it.

        -ccm

  • by incom (570967) on Saturday October 15 2005, @07:54PM (#13799957)
    Maybe my acres of permafrosted land around hudson's bay weren't such a bad investment afterall! Drive those SUV's boys, I want palms and bannana trees in my scenery!
  • by xiphoris (839465) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:04PM (#13800014) Homepage
    Affect and effect are both nouns and both verbs, but the one you wanted was "effect".

    An effect (n) is something that happens as a result of some action.

    To effect (v) a change is to cause a change to occur.

    A affect (n) is a feeling or emotion you feel.

    To affect (v) something is to change it through your actions. To affect something is to effect a change in it. :)

    Being the intelligent people we are, with great precision in our computer languages, let's not ride the wave of many technologists who believe they are too good to condescend to write English properly. Strive to do well in all things.
  • by Hamster Lover (558288) * on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:05PM (#13800019) Journal
    Canada considers the Artic to be an internal water way and as such maintains dominion over all shipping in the area. The U.S., no surprise, considers the area to be international waters. As the ice recedes and the fabled Northwest Passage becomes a reality look for increased tension between the United States and Canada over control of shipping in the area (like we need more tension than already exists).

    Unfortunately, Canada will probably roll over and let the U.S. have it's way on the sovereignty issue as we've done in the past when the U.S. ice breaker Polar Sea transited the Northwest Passage in 1985.
      • Re:Blame Canada (Score:5, Interesting)

        by CastrTroy (595695) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:19PM (#13800316) Homepage
        However, if you look at this map [wikipedia.org] of possible routes for a northwest passage, they go right through canadian territory. Based on the three miles rule, the middle of lake superior would be international waters. It might be hard to get there without passing through canadian/american waters. And try passing off on your local game warden that you caught those fish in international waters. you'd have to navigate a pretty specific route to ensure that you didn't come within 3 km of any piece of canadian land while going through the northwest passage.
        • Re:Blame Canada (Score:5, Informative)

          by Keebler71 (520908) on Sunday October 16 2005, @12:43AM (#13801271) Journal
          No offense, but you cleary have incomplete knowledge about international maritime law. What you are missing is a key piece of info known as innocent passage [globelaw.com](UN Convention on Law of the Sea, Articles 17-28). This right allows ships to pass through territorial waters for the purpose of accessing international waters. It is even extended to warships, provided they take additional steps to appear more "neutral" (for instance, aircraft carriers may not launch/recover aircraft and submarines must be surfaced). This right is exercised on a daily basis through the straits of Hormuz, and Bosporus, amoung others.
  • Eep (Score:5, Funny)

    by thegnu (557446) <thegnuNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:06PM (#13800021) Homepage Journal
    'polar thaw is also starting to unlock other treasures: lucrative shipping routes, perhaps even the storied Northwest Passage

    Primarily, this will open up trades route with Hell, which incidentally is short on handbaskets.
  • Pretty rocks. (Score:5, Informative)

    by jericho4.0 (565125) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:21PM (#13800101)
    I live in the Selkirk range in BC. Every summer the glaciers retreat a little further, and I've been making a point of trying to explore some of this newly uncovered land. I have found lots of pretty crystals and other mineral samples.

    Still, global warming is not a plus for me. The ski season is getting shorter :-(

  • by heroine (1220) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:37PM (#13800400) Homepage
    It's commonly agreed that if Earth was warmer, humans would be better off while many animals would go extinct. Most of the argument now is about how creatures which can't evolve as fast as humans would suffer and less about how humans would suffer because everyone's settled that humans would just evolve out of any problems.

    Humans would have to give up their multi billion dollar coastal mansions and their riverboat gambling. Eskimos would have to get real jobs instead of living off welfare in the middle of nowhere. Antarctic scientists would have to shift to rainforest studies. There wouldn't be any more arctic polar bears.

    On the other side, we'd consume much less energy for heating. 1000 less marines would die every year extracting heating oil from terrorists. Russia and Canadia would become inhabitable.

    • That's nothing. The headline says "affect". Obviously it should be "effect".

      Dumb humans.
    • I've actually heard someone say that they'd rather have more money than cleaner air. I guess they don't think breathing well would improve their life.

      "I can always buy air filters with my money," or something to that effect. It's gosh darn arrogant goatse-holes like that that make the world a harder place to live.
      • by quacking duck (607555) on Saturday October 15 2005, @09:20PM (#13800326)
        If you look at history, the melting and freezing of icecaps varys throughout history. The specs are skewed for everything.

        I agree the melting and re-freezing of ice caps are cyclical, and that stats always skewed, but you do realize that coastal communities are a lot less mobile than they were the last time the icecaps melted significantly? (And yes, I know that only the melting of one of the icecaps, the Antarctic, can actually affect sea levels). You can't easily abandon all the infrastructure in say New York and rebuild on higher ground, like a small tribe living in simple huts or cabins could.

        Just because events are historically cyclical, doesn't mean we're better able to weather them.

      • by skids (119237) on Saturday October 15 2005, @11:03PM (#13800747) Homepage

        http://www.ia.ucsb.edu/pa/display.aspx?pkey=1352 [ucsb.edu]

        "The research described in this week's article demonstrates that over the last 1.3 million years, sea surface temperatures in the heart of the western tropical Pacific were controlled by the waxing and waning of the atmospheric greenhouse effect. The largest climate mode shift over this time interval, occurring ~950,000 years before the present (the mid-Pleistocene transition), has previously been attributed to changes in the pattern and frequency of ice sheets.

        The new research suggests instead that this shift is due to a change in the oscillation frequency of atmospheric carbon dioxide abundances, a hypothesis that can be directly tested by deep drilling on the Antarctic Ice Cap. If proved correct, this theory would suggest that relatively small, naturally occurring fluctuations in greenhouse gases are the master variable that has driven global climate change on time scales of ten thousand to one million years."

        This study of plankton cores combined with the recent study of bog hardwoods puts all these "sun output" and "natural cycle" arguments to bed. Good night. Usually it's a large catastrophic event releasing trapped methane from ocean depths that cause it. This time we did it all by our lonesome -- or is that loathsome -- selves.

    • by bcwright (871193) on Saturday October 15 2005, @08:28PM (#13800132)
      Mostly true - the polar ice is for the most part floating in water, so by definition it displaces a volume of water equal to its weight. If it melts, its simply becomes water that will be equal in volume to the amount it displaced before it melted.

      There are two other effects to consider however - you alluded to the ice caps on Greenland and Antarctica, which would have a much greater effect on sea level if they should melt or even just flow into the ocean faster than they do now. With the polar ice cap gone, the Greenland ice cap would probably move faster and possibly even disintegrate.

      The other effect is that once you get above about 4 degrees C, water starts expanding again. So if the entire volume of ocean water becomes warmer on average, you may well get a rise in sea level even without the Greenland or Antarctic ice caps melting (the quibble is whether enough of the water will remain around 4 degrees C where it reaches minimum volume per unit mass - this is going to be difficult to compute because the effect of a melting polar ice cap on ocean currents is hard to predict accurately).

    • by Coryoth (254751) on Saturday October 15 2005, @10:31PM (#13800635) Homepage Journal
      First of all, let's be clear: we are facing warming. Using proxy data from a variety of sources such as tree rings and ice cores it is possible to calculate some decent estimates of global temperatures over the last ten thousand years or so. There are obvious cycles, and a fair amount of fluctuation, but current temperatures represent a significant upswing - that is acceleration - in warming over the last century or so.

      Given that, the question of causes remains. Volvano activity certainly throws out a lot of C02, around one hundred and thirty to two hundred and thirty million metric tons a year [wikipedia.org]. In comparison the US produces around five billion metric tonnes a year by itself [wikipedia.org] convincingly dwarfing volcanic output. You also point the finger at solar activity, claiming it is ignored - it isn't. As you point out the IPCC includes it in their considerations and found, depending on the model used, that it accounted for effects of sixteen to thirty six percent that of those caused by CO2 and other greenhouse emissions [wikipedia.org]. There are questions as to how well solar activity actually correlates with global temperature [newscientist.com] as well, so it's an open topic.

      On the other side of things: Our present understanding of physics is fairly unequivocal that CO2 and other gases can cause warming by trapping heat. Using ice cores and other methods to reconstruct historical CO2 levels we find that CO2 correlates extremely well with global temperature. We also find that CO2 levels have spiked beyond anything in recent history (recent history being the last four hundred thousand years) in just the last 150 years - again correlating extremely well with the recent acceleration in warming. Given the extremely good correlations and the clear reasons to believe in causation (which is to say, physics) it would seem that the burden of proof should fall to those who suggest human CO2 emissions are not having a significant impact on global temperatures.

      Are we killing the earth? I doubt it - I expect the earth will simply get warmer and keep on going. The question is: are we making life for ourselves much harder and much more costly, and is that preventable? There is strong evidence that human CO2 emissions are having a significant impact on climate, and that is certainly the cause over which we have the most direct influence. It makes sense to do something about it if we can.

      Jedidiah.