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Science

Sim Epidemic 130

Posted by Zonk from the i-don't-see-this-one-as-a-bestseller dept.
Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"
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Sim Epidemic More

Sim Epidemic

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  • CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:4, Interesting)

    by moofdaddy ( 570503 ) * on Friday March 04, 2005 @10:53PM (#11850324) Homepage
    I read an article in Popular Science a few months ago while waiting in the dentist office about a similar program developed by CERN. The main difference was that it was text based instead graphical. The coolest thing I saw about it was that they used it to re-enact the spread of the bubonic plaguge which killed so many people years ago. I think they were developing it for WHO and the associated organizations.

  • Finally (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 04, 2005 @10:54PM (#11850327)
    Some more amusing ways to torture my Sims.

    • Re:Finally (Score:1, Funny)

      by Anonymous Coward
      Talking about amusing torture games, nothing beats torturing your avatar in Black and White.

      Run into a village and devour villagers: tummy rub.
      Help a drowning villager: ruthless bitchslap session.

  • Phew (Score:5, Funny)

    by civman2 ( 773494 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @10:54PM (#11850330) Homepage
    For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...

    • Re:Phew (Score:4, Funny)

      by Biff Stu ( 654099 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:15PM (#11850430)
      In the event of an epidemic, this would be a good thing. Does this mean that if epidemics select for antisocial nerds, /.'ers will rule the earth?

    • Re:Phew (Score:3, Insightful)

      by waveclaw ( 43274 )
      For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...

      Since this is presented as a tool on which to base political policy, I am quite alarmed.

      While you are making a joke, this actually brings into question several of the assumptions u

  • Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)

    by CtrlPhreak ( 226872 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @10:55PM (#11850337) Homepage
    A friend of mine works with the WHO which has solicited many different people to do work like this for them. In light of all the terrorism talk and threats of bio-terrorism, we've had talks on this. Different universities etc. The problem with it is that no model is able to conform to historical records of various outbreaks well enough across the board to develop policy on. One model is highly based on an aids breakout of the 1980s or an asian flu epidemic, and the model fits well to it. But when the model is applied to different epidemics they don't work out. There are just so many factors differing by area, culture etc. Think close knit community vs big city. Also the way things are transmitted. You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

    Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.
    • Just keep watching Numb3rs then! I'm sure one of these weeks CBS will have the equation all figured out to solve ALL these types of problems. Everything is #'s!

    • Re: Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Alwin Henseler ( 640539 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:17PM (#11850439)
      You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

      I'd argue against the 'not very useful'. These models may not provide accurate predictions for real outbreaks, but may improve the insights into the variables involved, and how things interact.

      In the case of a real outbreak, authorities may take measures like release public warnings, quarantine certain areas/building, ask people to avoid certain activities for a while, etc.

      Will that slow down the outbreak? Will it confine casualties to a certain area? Can a measure help to lower mortality rates?

      With a real outbreak, that sort of data is crucial. If you know how to slow down the spread of a disease, you buy time for healthcare workers. Time to track down infected people, time to treat people before incubation period expires, etc. Keeping the number of casualties down, may avoid a mass panic. So having some knowledge about the variables involved can make a big difference, and save countless lives.

      So these models may be pretty helpless for predicting exact numbers, but still useful anyway.

      • But, the point is that, since we don't sufficiently understand which variables have what effect to create a general model, we can't really tell which strategies were extremely effective in historical outbreaks. We can't make policy based on this.

      • Furthermore (Score:3, Insightful)

        by einhverfr ( 238914 )
        You have a few issues that you have to consider in any given model:

        1) Vectors (i.e. sexually transmitted/blood-based infections like AIDS will behave differently than airborn-short-distance illnesses like SARS). This

        2) Contagious exposure time: Ebola will be far less dangerous than HIV because it is much more quickly progressing.

        These parameters will change the outcomes of the simulation.

        A simulated epidemic, not an epidemic of simulations ;-)

    • Re:Problems with models (Score:3, Interesting)

      by thogard ( 43403 )
      There are deeper problems as well. I played with this years ago when I had a large collection of data for a different project. One thing I did was played around with the time factor. It turns out that several genetic things look viral with a different time factor including allergy related illnesses like asthma. The head researcher thought it was interesting but had other projects and it would go too far against the modern teachings so the research died a natural death.
    • I also think that, (last time I checked, anyways) the government agencies base their models for the evolution of infectious disease on Burnette and White's model which is based primarily on airborne diseases, but applied, often badly, to waterborne diseases.

      Sexualy transmitted epidemics like 'the AIDS epidemic' make for difficult modles because people's sexual behavior has changed dramatically from 1950 - the present. Like you said, so many factors there.

      If they did this, it would be nice if it were possi
  • theres no torrent link?
    • I wonder how to communicate the short burst of laugher I experienced once I read your sig. "bahahaha" seems to convay sarcasm, but I assure you, there is none.

  • Two words (Score:2, Funny)

    by bakayoko ( 570822 )
    Chaos theory.

  • Her Name is Ann (Score:5, Funny)

    by TimeTraveler1884 ( 832874 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:02PM (#11850375)
    ...imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann.
    She sounds hot....



  • But, this is SLASHDOT... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mcrbids ( 148650 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:07PM (#11850401) Journal
    To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

    Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.

    Perhaps it should read something like:

    To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....
    • Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.
      Huh huh. Heh heh. She's a slut.

  • Zombies (Score:5, Informative)

    by LMariachi ( 86077 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:15PM (#11850432) Journal
    Sounds a little like the Zombie Infection Simulator. [kevan.org]

  • Alternate Uses (Score:5, Funny)

    by Stanistani ( 808333 ) on Friday March 04, 2005 @11:16PM (#11850436) Homepage Journal
    A tool like this could be adapted for some other fascinating uses:

    Marketing (particularly the viral type)
    Political meme simulation
    Catching terrorists and other criminals through investigating their social linkage
    Pharmacological demand forecasting

    All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not...
  • So when will the SimEpidemic game be available from EA?

  • Mod (Score:2, Funny)

    by shutdown -p now ( 807394 )
    Can one make a mod for Sims out of that? pleeease?
  • Can I use this to figure out how best to spread my next cold to friends, family, and co-workers so I don't have to suffer alone?

    -S
  • I was really hoping this article was going to be about some diseas which was wiping "The Sims" off the face off the planet... just my luck.
  • I read the headline as "Sin Epidemic." I was hoping I would catch it...

  • Word order designed for dupe (Score:1, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    This is going to be reposted as Epidemic Sim- watch for it!
  • Is there a version out there for us hand-of-God-wannabes to simulate outbreaks of dysentery in a highly-populated area? *splat*

  • Just wait... (Score:4, Funny)

    by PsiPsiStar ( 95676 ) on Saturday March 05, 2005 @01:53AM (#11850939)
    ... till they come out with the "gay bathhouse" mod pack.

    • The AIDS version (Score:3, Insightful)

      by Animats ( 122034 )
      Read Sexual Ecology [amazon.com], by Gabriel Rotello. A Sims-like simulator for AIDS is exactly what's needed to test the theories expressed in that book.

      The current simulator has a model of Portland in it. A mod for San Francisco is an obvious next step.



  • If I were a terrorist and wanted to start off a really good plague with something new, nasty, and specially engineered, I always thought handing out a few infected 20 dollar bills at various interstate highway Burger Kings or MacDonalds would be very effective.

    Every car that comes after you becomes a new vector! And heading all over the place!
  • Noone else seems to have asked the most important question of all. Where can we download it?
  • http://www.ccs.lanl.gov/ccs5/apps/epid.shtml
    http ://episims.lanl.gov/

  • Links and research papers (Score:5, Informative)

    by FleaPlus ( 6935 ) on Saturday March 05, 2005 @03:41AM (#11851212) Journal
    First off, here's a link to the EpiSims site [lanl.gov] at Los Alamos National Labs. They have a neat (250 meg) video showing smallprox propagation, as well as several graphs.

    Here's a link to the general web page at LANL for Dynamic Simulation Science [lanl.gov], which also includes information on things like simulation of transportation networks.

    A google scholar search [google.com] turns up a few interesting-looking research papers:

    Structural and Algorithmic Aspects of Massive Social Networks [google.com] (Eubank et al, 2004)

    Understanding Large-Scale Social and Infrastructure Networks: ASimulation-Based Approach [google.com] (Barrett et al)

    BioWar: A City-Scale Multi-Agent Network Model of Weaponized Biological Attacks [google.com]
  • Isn't this the new expansion that just came out for Sims 2?

  • That's why... (Score:1, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward
    ...Microsoft is releasing a Windows Cluster Edition [slashdot.org]

    So we can all play EpiSims!

  • My version... (Score:4, Funny)

    by Peter777 ( 797002 ) <peter.mackenzieNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Saturday March 05, 2005 @03:45AM (#11851219)
    19.35 - You are in your parents basement. It's very dark. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

    'up'

    19.40 - You are in your parents hall. You hear voices to the east.

    'east'

    19.45 - The room is full of people. You are likely to catch the plague.

    'mingle'

    19.50 - Your aunt kisses you.

    'use handkerchief'

    19.55 - You feel dizzy

    'South'

    20.00 - You are in the kitchen. You have caught the plague. You feel very hot.

    'South'

    20.05 - You are in the garden. You are dead.
  • An Open Letter to Elias Zerhouni [sciencemag.org] and the NewScientist's take on it: Top US biologists oppose biodefence boom [newscientist.com]
    Efforts to defend the US against bioterrorists - by throwing money at research - are backfiring, says a 750-strong group of top scientists.
  • that the graphics are identical to the game Lemonade Tycoon [shockwave.com]? It makes me want to sell the poor infected souls a cool refreshing drink!

    I am sorry for having spread this addictive agent to you if you haven't been previously exposed.....

  • Ann vs. Bob (Score:4, Interesting)

    by G4from128k ( 686170 ) on Saturday March 05, 2005 @09:20AM (#11851757)
    The real cause for concern is not Ann, the typical adult, but Bob, the traveling salesman. Bob comes into contact with hundreds of people spread across a wide area. Bob can give the infection to client sin remote sites and airline passengers. Worse, Bob will give the disease to hotel and airline workers (who spread it to other "Bob"s that travel).

    The connectivity of people lies on a 2-D spectrum of distance and numerousity. Highly connected, highly-travelled people will play a much greater role in spreading the disease than typically-connected, less mobile people. Given the incubation delay and delays in reporting of an epidemic, the Bobs of the world will have done their damage long before the government realizes the danger and closes the airports.
  • It seems like simulations like these should parallelize nicely, and be ideal for a distributed computing project [berkeley.edu] -- Epidemic@home, anyone? It'd be very interesting to watch running, and would help educate people about how diseases are spread. Of course, you'd probably also want to limit the amount of data conveyed to single users, to keep it from being too useful to "Bad People."
  • Just think of all the fab bubonic plaque carrier tattoos you can adorn your Sim with, while learning useful skills like Retch and Die and Group Infection Hug.

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