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Sim Epidemic

Posted by Zonk on Fri Mar 04, 2005 09:52 PM
from the i-don't-see-this-one-as-a-bestseller dept.
Science
Dotnaught writes "Scientific American has an intriguing story about EpiSims, an outbreak simulator. Designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), it deals with a social networking of a different sort: 'To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann. She has short brushes with family members during breakfast and then with other commuters or carpoolers on her way to work. Depending on her job, she might meet dozens of people at work, with each encounter having a different duration, proximity and purpose.'"
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  • CERN did this a couple of months ago (Score:4, Interesting)

    by moofdaddy (570503) * on Friday March 04 2005, @09:53PM (#11850324) Homepage
    I read an article in Popular Science a few months ago while waiting in the dentist office about a similar program developed by CERN. The main difference was that it was text based instead graphical. The coolest thing I saw about it was that they used it to re-enact the spread of the bubonic plaguge which killed so many people years ago. I think they were developing it for WHO and the associated organizations.

  • Finally (Score:5, Funny)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 04 2005, @09:54PM (#11850327)
    Some more amusing ways to torture my Sims.

  • Phew (Score:5, Funny)

    by civman2 (773494) on Friday March 04 2005, @09:54PM (#11850330) Homepage
    For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...

    • Re:Phew (Score:4, Funny)

      by Biff Stu (654099) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:15PM (#11850430)
      In the event of an epidemic, this would be a good thing. Does this mean that if epidemics select for antisocial nerds, /.'ers will rule the earth?
      • Or we *are* the epidemic, and everyone is already infected. /.'ers are ruling the earth. I for one...no lets not go there.

    • Re:Phew (Score:3, Insightful)

      by waveclaw (43274)
      For a minute there, I thought this article was going to be about how millions of teenage girls are displaying frightening symptoms: siting inside all day instead of socializing, playing computer games all day, turning away from reality. I guess the Sims has the power to turn girls into guys. But that's not what this is about...

      Since this is presented as a tool on which to base political policy, I am quite alarmed.

      While you are making a joke, this actually brings into question several of the assumptions u

  • Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)

    by CtrlPhreak (226872) on Friday March 04 2005, @09:55PM (#11850337) Homepage
    A friend of mine works with the WHO which has solicited many different people to do work like this for them. In light of all the terrorism talk and threats of bio-terrorism, we've had talks on this. Different universities etc. The problem with it is that no model is able to conform to historical records of various outbreaks well enough across the board to develop policy on. One model is highly based on an aids breakout of the 1980s or an asian flu epidemic, and the model fits well to it. But when the model is applied to different epidemics they don't work out. There are just so many factors differing by area, culture etc. Think close knit community vs big city. Also the way things are transmitted. You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

    Models working with more people is definitely a step forward, but just an improvement.
    • Just keep watching Numb3rs then! I'm sure one of these weeks CBS will have the equation all figured out to solve ALL these types of problems. Everything is #'s!

    • Re: Problems with models (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Alwin Henseler (640539) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:17PM (#11850439) Homepage
      You would have to have a different model for each scenario which is very difficult/costly. Until we can predict everything going into a situation these models aren't very useful.

      I'd argue against the 'not very useful'. These models may not provide accurate predictions for real outbreaks, but may improve the insights into the variables involved, and how things interact.

      In the case of a real outbreak, authorities may take measures like release public warnings, quarantine certain areas/building, ask people to avoid certain activities for a while, etc.

      Will that slow down the outbreak? Will it confine casualties to a certain area? Can a measure help to lower mortality rates?

      With a real outbreak, that sort of data is crucial. If you know how to slow down the spread of a disease, you buy time for healthcare workers. Time to track down infected people, time to treat people before incubation period expires, etc. Keeping the number of casualties down, may avoid a mass panic. So having some knowledge about the variables involved can make a big difference, and save countless lives.

      So these models may be pretty helpless for predicting exact numbers, but still useful anyway.

      • But, the point is that, since we don't sufficiently understand which variables have what effect to create a general model, we can't really tell which strategies were extremely effective in historical outbreaks. We can't make policy based on this.
      • You have a few issues that you have to consider in any given model:

        1) Vectors (i.e. sexually transmitted/blood-based infections like AIDS will behave differently than airborn-short-distance illnesses like SARS). This

        2) Contagious exposure time: Ebola will be far less dangerous than HIV because it is much more quickly progressing.

        These parameters will change the outcomes of the simulation.

        A simulated epidemic, not an epidemic of simulations ;-)
    • There are deeper problems as well. I played with this years ago when I had a large collection of data for a different project. One thing I did was played around with the time factor. It turns out that several genetic things look viral with a different time factor including allergy related illnesses like asthma. The head researcher thought it was interesting but had other projects and it would go too far against the modern teachings so the research died a natural death.
    • I also think that, (last time I checked, anyways) the government agencies base their models for the evolution of infectious disease on Burnette and White's model which is based primarily on airborne diseases, but applied, often badly, to waterborne diseases.

      Sexualy transmitted epidemics like 'the AIDS epidemic' make for difficult modles because people's sexual behavior has changed dramatically from 1950 - the present. Like you said, so many factors there.

      If they did this, it would be nice if it were possi
  • Chaos theory.

  • Her Name is Ann (Score:5, Funny)

    by TimeTraveler1884 (832874) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:02PM (#11850375)
    ...imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann.
    She sounds hot....



  • But, this is SLASHDOT... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by mcrbids (148650) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:07PM (#11850401) Journal
    To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....

    Of course, this is slashdot. If Ann was a slashdotter, her epidemiology would consist only of contact between Ann and her parents, at the dinner table, during the approximately 45 minutes per day that Ann leaves the cellar.

    Perhaps it should read something like:

    To understand what a social network really is and how it can be used for epidemiology, one must not be a slashdotter. Imagine the daily activities and contacts of a single hypothetical adult, Ann....
        • there are people who go around (when they get moderator points) and filter to look for funny mods they don't find funny, and then mod them down, because they think /. is lame, but the mod system is set to pretty much never give those ppl mod points again, so... they make new accounts, get karma up with whoring, and get mod points again, to do it again.. until they get subnet banned.

  • Zombies (Score:5, Informative)

    by _Ludwig (86077) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:15PM (#11850432) Journal
    Sounds a little like the Zombie Infection Simulator. [kevan.org]

  • Alternate Uses (Score:5, Funny)

    by Stanistani (808333) on Friday March 04 2005, @10:16PM (#11850436) Homepage Journal
    A tool like this could be adapted for some other fascinating uses:

    Marketing (particularly the viral type)
    Political meme simulation
    Catching terrorists and other criminals through investigating their social linkage
    Pharmacological demand forecasting

    All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not...
    • "All technology has alternate uses - some good, some not"

      like using this simulator to figure out what sort of person would be an ideal target to infect if you wanted to start a bioterrorism campaign...
  • So when will the SimEpidemic game be available from EA?
  • Can one make a mod for Sims out of that? pleeease?
  • Can I use this to figure out how best to spread my next cold to friends, family, and co-workers so I don't have to suffer alone?

    -S

  • Just wait... (Score:4, Funny)

    by PsiPsiStar (95676) on Saturday March 05 2005, @12:53AM (#11850939)
    ... till they come out with the "gay bathhouse" mod pack.
    • Read Sexual Ecology [amazon.com], by Gabriel Rotello. A Sims-like simulator for AIDS is exactly what's needed to test the theories expressed in that book.

      The current simulator has a model of Portland in it. A mod for San Francisco is an obvious next step.

  • Noone else seems to have asked the most important question of all. Where can we download it?
  • http://www.ccs.lanl.gov/ccs5/apps/epid.shtml
    http ://episims.lanl.gov/

  • Links and research papers (Score:5, Informative)

    by FleaPlus (6935) on Saturday March 05 2005, @02:41AM (#11851212) Homepage Journal
    First off, here's a link to the EpiSims site [lanl.gov] at Los Alamos National Labs. They have a neat (250 meg) video showing smallprox propagation, as well as several graphs.

    Here's a link to the general web page at LANL for Dynamic Simulation Science [lanl.gov], which also includes information on things like simulation of transportation networks.

    A google scholar search [google.com] turns up a few interesting-looking research papers:

    Structural and Algorithmic Aspects of Massive Social Networks [google.com] (Eubank et al, 2004)

    Understanding Large-Scale Social and Infrastructure Networks: ASimulation-Based Approach [google.com] (Barrett et al)

    BioWar: A City-Scale Multi-Agent Network Model of Weaponized Biological Attacks [google.com]

  • My version... (Score:4, Funny)

    by Peter777 (797002) <peter DOT mackenzie AT gmail DOT com> on Saturday March 05 2005, @02:45AM (#11851219)
    19.35 - You are in your parents basement. It's very dark. You are likely to be eaten by a grue.

    'up'

    19.40 - You are in your parents hall. You hear voices to the east.

    'east'

    19.45 - The room is full of people. You are likely to catch the plague.

    'mingle'

    19.50 - Your aunt kisses you.

    'use handkerchief'

    19.55 - You feel dizzy

    'South'

    20.00 - You are in the kitchen. You have caught the plague. You feel very hot.

    'South'

    20.05 - You are in the garden. You are dead.
  • An Open Letter to Elias Zerhouni [sciencemag.org] and the NewScientist's take on it: Top US biologists oppose biodefence boom [newscientist.com]
    Efforts to defend the US against bioterrorists - by throwing money at research - are backfiring, says a 750-strong group of top scientists.

  • Ann vs. Bob (Score:4, Interesting)

    by G4from128k (686170) on Saturday March 05 2005, @08:20AM (#11851757)
    The real cause for concern is not Ann, the typical adult, but Bob, the traveling salesman. Bob comes into contact with hundreds of people spread across a wide area. Bob can give the infection to client sin remote sites and airline passengers. Worse, Bob will give the disease to hotel and airline workers (who spread it to other "Bob"s that travel).

    The connectivity of people lies on a 2-D spectrum of distance and numerousity. Highly connected, highly-travelled people will play a much greater role in spreading the disease than typically-connected, less mobile people. Given the incubation delay and delays in reporting of an epidemic, the Bobs of the world will have done their damage long before the government realizes the danger and closes the airports.
  • It seems like simulations like these should parallelize nicely, and be ideal for a distributed computing project [berkeley.edu] -- Epidemic@home, anyone? It'd be very interesting to watch running, and would help educate people about how diseases are spread. Of course, you'd probably also want to limit the amount of data conveyed to single users, to keep it from being too useful to "Bad People."
      • Why are you an uncircumcised disease vector? Did you know that uncircumcised partners of women are more likely to develop cervical cancer?

        http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=uncircumcis ed +cervical+cancer&btnG=Google+Search
        • Ah, the humble foreskin. It protects the glans from abrasion in your pants, holds the smegma in for its anti-pathogenic goodness, is full of nerve endings for... stuff, and probably even helps keep those little amazonian fish from swimming up you. How's it going over there with the quest to surgically banish masturbation? I hear anal sex is becoming really popular in America, on account that circumcised males often can't get enough stimulation from vaginal sex. Not that I've actually looked into it of c
    • If you're going to engineer it give it a nice long gestation period... something like 3 months during which time it spreads to a significant percentage of the population.

      Rather than handing out 20 dollar bills which may be suspicious, just get a job at a McDonalds Drive Thru. Bonus points if it's near an airport.
    • Yeah, I thought that was a good episode of the X-Files, too. Where they had to catch the underground militia trying to spray the bacteria on the money in the bank which they'd tested on the kids in the movie theater, and so on...

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