Slashdot Log In
Random Number Generator That Sees Into the Future
Posted by
Zonk
on Sun Feb 13, 2005 12:43 AM
from the could-be-hooey dept.
from the could-be-hooey dept.
hackajar writes "Red Nova news has an interesting article about a random number generating black box that may be able to see into the future. From the article: "according to a growing band of top scientists, this box has quite extraordinary powers. It is, they claim, the 'eye' of a machine that appears capable of peering into the future and predicting major world events"."
This discussion has been archived.
No new comments can be posted.
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
Full
Abbreviated
Hidden
Loading... please wait.
Mysterious Future (Score:5, Funny)
Then maybe it can help me to win a few more Rock Paper Scissors [iclod.com] games too.
Re:Mysterious Future (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Needless to say.... (Score:5, Funny)
Omigod..... I'm PSYCHIC!!!!
I think I'll just go to sleep now ... before I get more tired.
Parent
Greater possibilities. (Score:5, Funny)
OK, 65 eggs, so we'll use the extra one as a parity bit. Everyone concentrate on the following binary number really really hard:
1010011 1101100 1100001 1110011 1101000 1000100 1101111 1110100 1
Parent
Looks like trouble... (Score:5, Funny)
Is it really random? (Score:5, Insightful)
Re:Is it really random? (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:Is it really random? (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Why is this under science? (Score:5, Insightful)
-jcr
Re:Why is this under science? (Score:5, Interesting)
Actually, the people involved in the project are already aware of this;
From their FAQ:
How do you make the leap that the deviations from randomness are related to world events or consciousness? After all, when you find a deviation you can check the news and ALWAYS find some world event that is taking place, because world events happen every day. There are never days without world events anymore, so it seems that there is a possibility that this is just a coincidence.
The leap we make is only to ask the question. The answer seems to be yes, there are correlations. With regard to your concern that we can always find a special event to fit the data, we fully agree. However, we do our experimental work the other way around from what you have inferred. First we make a prediction that some identified event will have an effect, then we assess the data to see the actual outcome. Though some people suggest that we should do so, we never "find a deviation [and then] check the news", because you are right -- it will always be possible to find some event that we might imagine was the cause. The GCP methodology is prediction-based. Before the data are examined, a prediction is registered, with all necessary analysis specifications, and only then do we perform the analysis that allows us to quantify the correlation and assign it a probability against chance.
Parent
Re:Why is this under science? (Score:5, Insightful)
The September 11 graphs suggest a precursor effect, as has been seen in a few prior cases. Could this be used as a warning?
The best guess is we cannot use the EGG data for such practical applications. One major reason is the statistical nature of our measures. Nobody has yet come up with anything more direct, and this means that there will be, by definition, both false positives and negatives. Moreover, the effect size is so tiny that we almost always require repeated measures, or measures over a long time to detect any anomalies. To see precursors we have to look back across that time from a post facto perspective. Unique point events have little chance of being seen, at least by our current methods.
In other words, they look at the data after something has happened searching for a "spike" that will almost certainly be there.
Parent
Re: Why is this under science? (Score:5, Insightful)
The "significance" of the result critically depends on where you put your t=0 in the data stream. So go back and look at the other two plots, for the papal visit and the New Year's celebration. What if you used t=3 for your zero point on the New Year's analysis?> In other words, they look at the data after something has happened searching for a "spike" that will almost certainly be there.
To give an illustration of one aspect of the problem you mention:
At the EGG Story page [princeton.edu], scroll down and look at the plots labeled "Cumulative Deviation (Random Walk)", "New Years, 1998", "Pope in Holy Land". In these plots the smooth curve represents the 95% confidence bound on how far the deviation can be expected to go by pure chance. (I'm assuming their calculations are correct.)
Notice that in all cases the curve and the data plot both start at t=0, y=0, which I will call the "zero point" for the plot. Now consider the effect of the specific choice of t=0. Look at the first plot mentioned above, the "Cumulative Deviation (Random Walk)" plot, and notice that the data drops down to y=0 just a bit before t=300. Suppose you scrolled the data leftward until your zero point was at that point just before t=300; I pick this point because it has the same y as the original zero point, so nothing changes on the y axis: the boundary curve doesn't change at all, but the data is shifted leftward.
Hey! This random walk now has a sudden upward trend at t=0 (formerly t=~300), and the deviation rides above the boundary line for about 100 time steps. But wait - there's more! We can do the same think if we pick the plot's original t=700 or so, though with a slightly less impressive jump above the boundary line. Or we can get a really nice peak if we move our zero point to t=600 or so, and re-zero the data on the y axis so that the new zero point has x=0, y=0.
Re the papal visit, you might think the Pope's schedule [ewtn.com] pins down the time of interest so that we don't have any option on where to place the zero point. Well, be that as it may, whoever generated the plot did cherrypick the zero point. The schedule linked right above shows that it was actually a seven day trip; they didn't count the day the Pope left Italy and started his visit to Jordan. But what would the plot look like if they had started 24 hours earlier? (Not a rhetorical question: we don't have the data.) What's the "right" time to pick for this plot's zero point? When the Pope left Italy? When he arrived in Jordan? When he arrived in Israel? When the media coverage ramped up? Should it start a a particular how of the day? What time zone?
This is data cherrypicking of the crassest sort. The 75 scientists should be ashamed of themselves.
Parent
42 (Score:5, Funny)
hmmm (Score:5, Funny)
Put up or shut up... (The Randi prize) (Score:5, Informative)
I doubt they'll be collecting it.
Pat Niemeyer
Re:Put up or shut up... (The Randi prize) (Score:5, Insightful)
Really smart people have been fooled before by turning the scientific method on its head and looking for causes that fit selected outcomes... Unless you can make a prediction before something happens you really don't have much to talk about.
Pat
Parent
Re:Put up or shut up... (The Randi prize) (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
I predict... (Score:5, Funny)
Regards,
Karnak the Magnificent
The Global Consciousness Project (Score:5, Informative)
The entire premise behind the Global Consciousness Project is that the Noosphere [wikipedia.org] exists, and that, when a large amount of people are focused on the same thing it effects things in ways that are difficult to measure. There are dozens of these eggs (64) all around the world returning truly random data to the princeton server, which is inside a special casing to protect it from any extraneous waves/radiation/youname it. Their data purport, and indeed seem, to show that during times when many people are focused on the same thing, this random data is suddenly "less random". This typically means that when people start hearing about a globally impacting event on the news, the data becomes less random.
Using current methods it is impossible to prove that this is what they are measuring. But the data goes to show that they are measuring something. If you don't believe me or the news article, download the data and analyze it yourself, and if you're feeling the tingling of those psychic wavelengths, you can even register a prediction [princeton.edu] of your own
heh (Score:5, Funny)
Fascinating live view (Score:5, Funny)
So not only is it a website that predicts the future, it's a website that goes 'ping' that predicts the future. what more could a geek want?
Margins of Reality (Score:5, Interesting)
From that I found multiple pointers to a book, Margins of Reality, by Jahn and Dunne. It details research done at the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research lab. They basically run millions of RNG trials with people trying to influence the result, and they get pretty much statistically provable effects, but at a very low level (something like a 5 parts per 10,000 deviation from the norm.) What's freaky is it's so consistent they've gotten to the point that they can tell you which test subject is influencing things by the results. Very freaky stuff.
Anyway, even if you're a die-hard prove-it-to-me science buff, the research results described in the book will really make you ponder how well we understand things, particularly RNGs and rigorous test procedures, if nothing else.
Re:Margins of Reality (Score:5, Insightful)
Technical analysis is the same. 250 people go to a seminar, half of them decide to get an account, buy books and software and start trading on FOREX or commodity markets. After a year 64 of them are still in the black. After two years 30 of them have profits for two years. After six years there probably will still be 2 guys, with BMWs, Rolexes and stuff. Wait one more year - one of them will lose anything, but the lucky one will decide to give seminars on technical analysis or write 100$ books on trading.
Those guys in Princeton are idiots. They are wasting their time and university's money. Their claims are ridiculous and they deserve to be fired and sent to work in the trash sorting plant. That way we can put their skills in finding valuable stuff in random shit to good use.
Parent
Re:Margins of Reality (Score:5, Insightful)
5 parts in 10000 is nothing. The probability theory guarantees that there are many experiements where such results are randomly produced.
It is not the scale of the deviation but its repeatability that counts here.
In other words if conscious concentration affects a random number generator then by how much the results differ could be viewed as the force of the effect. However, if the deviations repeatedly occur while a test subject concentrates on the generator but don't occur when no one does then that is a valid observation despite the effect observed being weak.
Parent
WEAK CORRELATION (Score:5, Insightful)
Worse, the correlation suggests the causation post-facto. Nobody even guesses there will be a correlation until there's an effect. And if there's no effect, nobody discounts the box's output.
Sad. Innumerate. Stupid.
women's breasts (Score:5, Funny)
Jewish telegram (Score:5, Funny)
They read "start worrying, details to follow."
Re:I saw this a while ago (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Informative)
Because it's pseudo-science that's trying to be serious. Which can be a dangerous thing, although probably isn't in this case.
I stopped reading when I read this:
"The laws of chance dictate that the generators should churn out equal numbers of ones and zeros - which would be represented by a nearly flat line on the graph."
No, the laws of chance do not say any such thing. In fact, the laws of chance say exactly the opposite. If you have two choices chosen at random over a series (a 1 and a 0; or heads and tails on a coin), there is a high probability that one of the choices will be chosen a significantly higher number of times than the other. Over time, the percentage disparity will decrease to near zero, but the total numerical disparity is likely to increase.
Similarly and extending from that, there is no law of anything that says that if you have a long series of 1's that it's more likely that your next number will be a 0. The "law of averages" is commonly cited here but there's really no such law.
Wikipedia [wikipedia.org] has a nice little article that explains this, though I highly recommend the book Innumeracy for a lot more detail and an entertaining read to boot (that's a straight Amazon link, not a referral - I don't care where you buy it, just read it.)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Funny)
I can see into the future. You will get a 5, Informative for making this obvious mathematical observation.
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Insightful)
Red Nova usually has good articles, but every once in awhile, one shows up that belies evidence of lack of scientific rigour. This is the case here.
An example (from the article:)
It was a preposterous idea at the time. The results, however, were stunning and have never been satisfactorily explained.
This sentence is prejudicial because it biases the results as being "stunning", without describing who finds the results stunning.
"Never satisfactorily explained" also presumes that someone finds it worthy of needing explanation.
Again and again, entirely ordinary people proved that their minds could influence the machine and produce significant fluctuations on the graph, 'forcing it' to produce unequal numbers of 'heads' or 'tails'.
"Proved"? Pretty strong words with no supporting detail. Once I read sentences like this, I discount an article as being scientifically unfounded.
In response to the parent post:
No, the laws of chance do not say any such thing. In fact, the laws of chance say exactly the opposite.
I believe you're misinterpreting the laws of chance.
If you have two choices chosen at random over a series (a 1 and a 0; or heads and tails on a coin), there is a high probability that one of the choices will be chosen a significantly higher number of times than the other.
Significant as a percentage? Unlikely.
Over time, the percentage disparity will decrease to near zero, but the total numerical disparity is likely to increase.
This is a trivial statement. If n flips has m total disparities, n+x flips will have between m and m+x disparities. It is therefore impossible for the total number of disparities to decrease, and almost guaranteed that it will increase.
The only significant measure of disparity is that of percentile disparity. And if you measure percentile disparity on a scale equivalent to the number of events being measured, it will in fact appear to be a nearly flat line on the graph.
The thing that bothers me about this "experiment" is that it presumes to assert that people can control a machine that generates random events, without describing the algorithm by which those random events are produced. Trying to simulate true randomness (indeed, what is random?) is a huge topic within math, statistics, and computer science; yet, it's not mentioned once within the article.
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Funny)
"The thing that bothers me about this "experiment" is that it presumes to assert that people can control a machine that generates random events, without describing the algorithm by which those random events are produced..."
I believe their algorithm for producing random numbers was sound - it was based on completely unpredictable world events of extreme importance. Oh, wait...
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Insightful)
The article may very well be about pseudo-science. However trying to counter it with pseudo-reasoning and confusing distinct, well-defined statistical properties doesn't advance the cause of science. In fact it looks not only bad but desperate.
My professor in statisitics would probably have pitched an eraser at you for suggesting what amounts to an oxymoronic "high probability of the improbable." If the probability is 1:1,000,000, then in one million experiments there is a finite probability (1:1,000,000) that you may see the event once, and a lesser finite probability you would see it more than once. If something improbable turns up "significantly" as you phrase it then you check to see if the dice are honest.
In fact, the mean value of a normally distributed series of random numbers should trend toward a constant value. In the case of runs of 0s and 1s, it should trend toward 0.5 and approximate it more closely as the experiment runs.
The variance should tend to increase as less probable values fill the wings of the bell curve. The longer the series of random values the more nearly normal that trend should be and the greater the potential variance may be, since with a longer experiment you can actually acquire less probable runs that simply could not occur earlier. For instance you need to toss a coin a minimum of 20 times to have even the possibility of achieving 1:1,000,000 odds (1:1048576, actually 2^20). You would need to toss a good many more times than that before you could legitmately begin to worry of a 1:1,000,000 occurence did not show up.
That's how Los Vegas makes a living. The rubes always hope that the improbable will kiss them on the neck. In fact nothing you say actually contradicts the quote you are trying to criticize. They are discussing the mean results while you are talking about the variance.
The simplest explanation for their "correlation" is simply coincidence of highly improbable runs temporarily skewed the data. Remember that the experiment has been running for years so some really improbable runs are possible. They need a lot more disasters before they can actually test an argument based on a statistical improbability.
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Insightful)
I mean a scientist is quoted as saying "Our data shows clearly that the chances of getting these results by fluke are one million to one against." I would actually place the chance much much lower, I mean a million to one is nothing really. The odds of 30 coin flips in any order is a million to one. The real problem is prediction. The question is whether the model can predict into the future what events will cause blips and the magnitude of the event.
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Informative)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Interesting)
"The generation of random numbers is too important to be left to chance"
-Robert R. Coveyou, Oak Bridge National Laboratory
Parent
Evidence of simulation? (Score:5, Interesting)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Insightful)
I would like detailed instructions on how to construct a stream of random numbers with behaviors that correlate to outside events as they describe, so that I can repeat their experiments myself and see if I can reproduce the same effect. Tabletop reproduction isn't always possible in science (e.g. historical sciences like archaeology, paleontology, cosmology- remember that, you creationists) but in this case reproduction of results should be easy. (If this were real.)
At the very least I want to know how to generate a stream of random numbers that reproduces this effect, how to recognize a prediction when it arrives in the stream, and how to assign a P-value for associations between random stream events and real world events. Unless we move past the sort of ex post facto "predictions" of past events, there is nothing new here. It looks like a repetition of work already done by Nostradamus.
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Interesting)
No, this is incorrect. There exists an infinite variety of streams of random numbers, and not all of them have the same properties, nor are they of the same quality, nor would all random number sources normally be expected to react to outside events (like someone coming to the lab and "concentrating") in the same way. Random numbers can be gotten from a radioactive source (which might be one of thousands of different isotopes), rolling dice, unstable electronic circuits, dripping faucets, the weather, etc. All can map cleanly to a given range and can usually pass all tests used to determine whether or not a sequence is truly random. The pseudorandom numbers that are commonly used in computing (for example) are generated by linear congruential methods and they fail these tests; k-tuples of these numbers form a lattice structure when you plot them in k-dimensional space. If any stream of truly random numbers will work, then any of these sources can be used to predict the future!
Now granted, this is all solidly in the realm of nonsense, so this discussion is already a bit esoteric. But if you seriously think that these guys are right and that outside events are reflected in their random number streams, then the question arises, is there a connection between these human-world events and the random number generator they're using, or is the connection between those events and the random numbers themselves- just by virtue of their randomness?
I say it's between outside events and the particular generator being used, because that (although wildly implausible) is the weaker of these two claims- which are both whoppers. If the prediction comes from the numbers themselves, then the claim being made here is a much, much stronger claim- that any random process is somehow connected to major events in the human world. Now that's the sort of magic I stopped believing in by the time I was 4. (I don't buy the weaker claim either, but I have to acknowledge that it has an infinitely greater chance of being true than the stronger claim.)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Informative)
Parent
Re:Atoms (Score:5, Informative)
I haven't seen any convincing data, the people running this project pick and choose 'world' events as they decide it.
For example: [skepticreport.com]
"Radin gave several examples of how GCP had detected 'global consciousness'. One was the day O.J. Simpson was acquitted of double-murder. We were shown a graph where - no doubt about that - the data formed a nice ascending curve in the minutes after the pre-show started, with cameras basically waiting for the verdict to be read.
And yes, there was a nice, ascending curve in the minutes after the verdict was read.
However, about half an hour before the verdict, there was a similar curve ascending for no apparent reason. Radin's quick explanation before moving on to the next slide?
'I don't know what happened there.'
It was not to be the last time we heard that answer."
And if upward curves start before the 'world' event taking place? It's collective pre-cognition folks! And how much before the event counts as pre-cognition? As much (or as little) as these 'experimeters' require.
Look, even the director of the project himself says: "...this idea is really an aesthetic speculation. I don't think we have real grounds to claim that the statistics and graphs representing the data prove the existence of a global consciousness. On the other hand, we do have strong evidence of anomalous structure in what should be random data..."
That's the real telling point: "...should be random data...". I bet some in-depth tests might show the 'eggs' are simply not entirely random.
Parent
don't get too excited about Princeton (Score:5, Informative)
Parent
Top scientists believe ... (Score:5, Informative)
Source: Daily Mail; London (UK)
It may be that Red Nova is a valid news site, but they should really check the status of their sources. The Mail will run just about any sensational piece of b*ll*cks doing the rounds. They are not the sort of organ that would want to cloud the reader's faith in the paranormal with any of that cynical questioning. Please insert the phrase 'Top scientists believe
Click here [dailymail.co.uk] and search for "Crop Circles", "MI6" or "UFO".
Parent
Re:Random number machines predicting the future eh (Score:5, Informative)
Here's [skepticreport.com] what the Skeptic Report has to say about the "Global Consciousness Project".
Parent
Re:I predict! (Score:5, Funny)
Parent
Re:Superstitious Crackery (Score:5, Insightful)
Perhaps you've heard of the scientific method?
It sounds like quakery, but so did flight and travel to the moon 150 years ago.
The appropriate stance is "I'll believe it when they prove it", not "that can't be true." Rabid atheism is no more scientific than wicca.
Parent
Re:Superstitious Crackery (Score:5, Insightful)
Well, no. Occam's razor does not assume that the universe behaves simply.
Occam's razor states that you should not needlessly multiply entities. What does this mean? It means if you have a theory that "things move when you hit them", and you have another theory that needlessly states "things moves when you hit them and the moon is waning", and both theories are supported by experimental evidence, then you should throw away the needlessly complex version involving the moon. The extra complexity adds nothing to the value of the theory.
You cannot use Occam's razor to dismiss a complex theory. There is no assumption by Occam that complex theories are wrong, or that simpler theories are right. That's not what it means and anybody who attempts to use it that way is simply wrong.
Parent
Re:These people ARE NOT crackpots. (Score:5, Insightful)
You are passing judgement on their work only on the basis of a PopSCI level article written for a 9th grade audiance.
Most, if not all, of your issues are addresed on the project sites.
Parent
Indeed - many will wonder (Score:5, Insightful)
Parent