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Steven Hawking Loses Bet On Black Holes?

Posted by simoniker on Thu Jul 15, 2004 07:04 AM
from the most-upsetting dept.
st1d writes "Looks like Steven Hawking might have to pay up on an old bet regarding black holes - seems his idea about them destroying information wasn't quite living up to his expectations: 'The about-turn might cost Hawking, a physicist at the University of Cambridge, an encyclopaedia because of a bet he made in 1997. More importantly, it might solve one of the long-standing puzzles in modern physics.' He's due to make a formal announcement July 21."
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[+] Black Holes Don't Trap Information Forever 384 comments
sciencehabit writes "New calculations suggest that black holes are not a one-way street. Anything that falls into them may eventually come out. The findings lend important support to quantum gravity, but fly in the face of Einsteinian relativity. They also support Stephen Hawking's reluctant admission that information couldn't be destroyed by black holes. Penn State researcher Ahbay Ashtekar was quoted saying, 'Once we realized that the notion of space-time as a continuum is only an approximation of reality, it became clear to us that singularities are merely artifacts of our insistence that space-time should be described as a continuum.' Let the physics infighting begin."
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  • Winning a bet... (Score:5, Interesting)

    by Dagny Taggert (785517) <hankreardenNO@SPAMgmail.com> on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:05AM (#9705911) Homepage
    ...against Hawking would be something to tell the grandchildren about. Hell, it would be an honor to lose a bet to him.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:09AM (#9705931)
      Hell, it would be an honor to lose a bet to him.

      As long as it isn't a stair climbing bet.
    • Re:Winning a bet... (Score:5, Interesting)

      by Zaphrod (752084) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:24AM (#9706046) Homepage
      Steven has lost bets before but in most cases I believe it was he who proved himself wrong. He bets against what he hopes to prove thereby winning in either case.
        • by untaken_name (660789) on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:49AM (#9706718) Homepage
          Jesus, who uses those nowadays anyway?

          Wow. If He answers your question, could you tell me what His /. id is? I have some questions for Him too...if you get His email addy, that'd work too.
          • by justkarl (775856) on Thursday July 15 2004, @09:14AM (#9706946) Homepage
            Wow. If He answers your question, could you tell me what His /. id is? I have some questions for Him too...if you get His email addy, that'd work too.

            At first read, I couldn't tell if you were talking about Jesus or Stephen Hawking. But I'll bet they both have accounts here.
    • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:44AM (#9706669)
      Hawking is a better than average physicist, but he is far from the best... What he is very good at is explaining advanced concepts in a way that the educated (but not advanced degree in physics holding) crowd can understand.

      He is also good at taking credit for work that is not his own. He has on 2 occasions had to apologize to professor Jimmy York [cornell.edu] for claiming Jimmies ideas as his own. Rumor has it that Jimmy says Hawking has done it again, but has not yet apologized this time.

      He and his main collaborator (Roger Penrose) are widely regarded as ass holes (actually referred to as the twin ass holes) who capitalize greatly on other peoples work without doing much themselves in the cosmology community.

      Posted AC to protect my fiancé (a cosmology PhD student), the source of most of my info on Hawking...
    • by MasTRE (588396) on Thursday July 15 2004, @09:19AM (#9706988)
      > Winning a bet against Hawking would be something to tell the grandchildren about.

      Hey, kids - when I was your age, I used to bet people in wheelchairs who couldn't even speak unassisted and take their money away.
      • Re:Winning a bet... (Score:5, Interesting)

        by Andy_R (114137) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:18AM (#9705994) Homepage Journal
        You are thinking of "Hawking Radiation", which (as you might guess by the name) Prof. Hawking already knows about.

        From TFA...

        "Hawking radiation" contains no information about the matter inside the black hole and once the black hole evaporates, all information is lost.

        But this conflicts with the laws of quantum physics, which say that such information can never be completely wiped out.


        It's a solution to this paradox that Hawking will be talking about.
          • Re:Which laws? (Score:5, Informative)

            by The Only Druid (587299) on Thursday July 15 2004, @11:21AM (#9708263)
            It violates the third law of thermodynamics, that the universe moves towards an increasingly entropic state.

            Look at it this way: if all the matter in the universe were condensed into a black hole which in doing so destroyed all the information about that matter, the universe would be less entropic than before the black hole consumed everything.

            Hawking radiation was in fact initially proposed as a means of seeming to counteract that: the radiation emitted due to quantum pair formation at the event horizon was calculated so that the following was always true: the Hawking radiation contributed more entropy to the universe than the infalling matter could have contained. Considering that the event horizon increases with the mass of the black hole, the balance was maintained.

            String theory, for several reasons, has changed some of the underlying theories, hence the upcoming speech.
            • Re:Which laws? (Score:5, Informative)

              by Y2 (733949) on Thursday July 15 2004, @11:34AM (#9708390)
              Look at it this way: if all the matter in the universe were condensed into a black hole which in doing so destroyed all the information about that matter, the universe would be less entropic than before the black hole consumed everything.

              That is exactly wrong. Black holes radiate (no pun intended) a black-body spectrum, which is a spectrum of maximal entropy. This had been proven several different ways by the mid-seventies. If black holes destroyed information, which radiation, containing no information, would be the end of the story. (Pun intended, this time.) However, ...

              In QM, physical processes are represented by "unitary operators", which cannot destroy information. If you're familiar with Liousville's theorem in classical mechanics, it's a bit like that.

                  • Re:Which laws? (Score:5, Informative)

                    by JPMH (100614) on Thursday July 15 2004, @04:01PM (#9711244)
                    Classically, every system can always be viewed as being in one microstate. Then there is no such thing as entropy. Obviously, that would be a confused and useless view.

                    On the contrary, it's a most valuable view, and very helpful for seeing why unitarity and/or determinism is fundamental to the Second Law, not in opposition to it.

                    It reminds us always to remember that the entropy is not a property of the universe itself, but rather it is a property of the description of the universe -- coarse-grained and inevitably simplified -- that we have chosen to adopt.

                    So, in the simplest terms, we think of the universe evolving from one of a set of initial microstates M1 through a complicated black-box operation to one of a set of subsequent microstates M2. Because of determinism, each initial state in M1 evolves to exactly one subsequent state in M2. But our description of the initial state -- in terms of macroscopic variables &c -- is not sufficient to identify the microstate. Our description is missing some of the information, and this is the entropy S1.

                    If we could perfectly map our whole initial distribution of possible states through the black box, microstate by microstate, then our final entropy would still be exactly S1, reflecting the deterministic evolution of that initial distribution of states. But inevitably we can't follow all of the shuffling in the black box in that detail, so some of our initial information ceases to be useful -- with the result that at the end of the process there is more information we are missing, so S2 >= S1.

                    So the Second Law inequality rests on two things: the total amount of information there is to know remains the same (because of the determinism); but the amount of useful information we actually have has fallen (because we couldn't follow the shuffling) -- and that is why the difference between the two, the entropy, the information we don't have, has increased (or at best remained the same). The second law does not conflict with the assumption of determinism: it depends on it.

                    This carries over directly to quantum mechanics, where the meaning of unitarity is essentially a guarantee that volumes in the phase space are preserved -- a grid of microstates maps forward to another grid of microstates the same size. Again, this does not conflict with the second law; it guarantees it.

                    In terms of the accounting, it's very important that the microstate of the Hawking radiation does represent information about the state of the universe, but information that we don't have.

  • by tomhudson (43916) <hudson&videotron,ca> on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:06AM (#9705919) Homepage Journal
    seems his idea about them destroying information wasn't quite living up to his expectations
    In other words, black holes don't run Windows.
  • Integrity (Score:5, Insightful)

    by Stephen R Hall (163541) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:07AM (#9705925)
    It shows the character of the man - not only is he prepared to admit he was wrong, but will present detailed scientific proof of why he was wrong.
    • Re:Integrity (Score:5, Informative)

      by thefirelane (586885) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:11AM (#9705949)
      If this is the same bet I remember... he wanted to be wrong. His expectation, and hope was that he would loose the bet... he took the bet because if his theories turn out to be wrong, at least he gets the prize of the bet as consolation.


      ---Lane
    • by Ari_Haviv (796424) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:16AM (#9705982) Homepage
      not only that but he "appeared" on Conan O'brian. now that is a man I can respect.
    • by Timesprout (579035) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:18AM (#9705996)
      Yes, he is going to bring a small black hole to the meeting which will consume all the delegates thus destroying them. The now completely destroyed delegates will continue to receive spam so proving that some information about them does still exist. Unfortunately for the delegates though their future legacy is to be considered by our decendants as perverts obsessed with their penis size, women having carnal relations with donkeys and perhaps most bizarrely, a toner cartridge fetish.
      • Re:Integrity (Score:5, Informative)

        by Ubergrendle (531719) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:57AM (#9706283) Homepage Journal
        Having worked with disabled people in a support capacity earlier in life, I can offer some observations (which are fully qualified as personal opinion only!):

        1. Disabilities affect your state of mind. Just as you think differently if you speak a different language or come from a different culture, the mere fact that you're disabled impacts ALL aspects of your life, directly or indirectly. Think of it this way: if you know, for example, that you will NEVER have a sex life and that you will NEVER go through the traditional dating/marriage male/female dynamic, how does that change you life? For better? For worse?

        2. Disabilities usually come with ongoing pain. Sores from prolonged periods of sitting in a wheelchair. Muscle problems from over developed/under developed muscles due to 'incorrect' body posture. Rashes from your adult diapers. Pain is NOT a natural state, and will pervade all aspects of your personality. When my mother had a serious muscle injury that persisted for about 18 months, the constant pain changed her personality completely (for the worse). Many times this is the reason why elderly people seem cantankerous and cranky...this is not their natural disposition. They were not 'always this way'.

        3. People with disabilities are needy. Some more than others. The best adjusted ones are people who have disabilities onset late in life, or the ones that somehow have the strength of will (plus physical capability) of being independent. But some do not/cannot become independent, and thus are need as a matter of living. In many disabled people, I've seen an amplified sense of demand and outrage at minor things. It also amplifies the 'me-me-me-me' attitude, which I interpret as a corrupted sense of self preservation.

        I think the movie "My Left Foot" did a great job portraying all of the personality differences if you're looking for a good dramatised case study.

        Short of it is: I don't doubt that Hawking is an a**hole. I would be a bit surprised if he wasn't, in all honesty. But try not to judge too harshly...despite his great intelligence I suspect his social skills are unique to himself and somewhat limited. In this case I prefer to feel pity for his first wife, and reserve judgment on the man.
        • Re:Integrity (Score:5, Insightful)

          by SunPin (596554) <slashspam@@@cyberista...com> on Thursday July 15 2004, @10:57AM (#9708024) Homepage
          Amigo, I'm sorry to hear about the horrible experiences you've had with the disabled. Since you experienced them in a work capacity, I can only suspect that it was a hospital or social services setting. Unfortunately, *nobody* is mentally well adjusted in those environments. Perhaps you should try spending time around a university or socially progressive areas like South Florida, Southern California, Berkeley, Madison, etc.

          Everybody knows some really bad apples. In college, I knew a guy that pretty much represented everything you wrote. He was a demented fuckup. I remember hearing other disabled kids grumbling stuff like, "as long as that asshat exists, he's going to make things harder on everybody [who is disabled]."

          Hawking is remarkable because of the severity of his disease. I can't imagine living in pain or without my wood but I know what the wheelchair is like and I know guys with the pain/wood issues that are happily married with children and paying their taxes every year.

          It's always annoying to see somebody use "always" or "never". At /., that's usually a tipoff to a troll. I understand what you wrote and how those ideas may have evolved. You have the right to keep them despite anything I or anybody else presents to the contrary. The only thing I ask is that you leave a wider door open for the possibility that you could be entirely wrong.

          It's the scientific thing to do, as Hawking eloquently demonstrates. Furthermore, the disabled know what they are up against. There's no need to make things harder by putting observations from a limited pool of experience into the net. Peace.
      • Re:Integrity (Score:5, Interesting)

        by HiThere (15173) * <charleshixsnNO@SPAMearthlink.net> on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:05AM (#9706331)
        People who live in pain tend to be unpleasant characters. Sorry, it seems to work that way. That Hawking is able to be civil almost all the time is a great testiment to his social awareness. And his social awareness would make is "cripple" status particularly annoying to him.

        I suspect that he pep-talks himself all the time, just to get through a day. I'm certain that he will be seen by many as arrogant and intolerant. But if he were to be tolerant *of himself* he might well collapse into self-pity. Similarly if he were to loose his good (arrogant) opinion of himself.

        I am only sporadically troubled by a chronic pain. I'm told that the first thing that people notice that lets them know that I'm in pain is that I become more cutting, and my humor turns blacker. I don't notice this, myself, but it's been reported to me by someone I trust, AND used to diagnose when I was in pain, so I'm fairly certain that it's accurate.
        • Re:Integrity (Score:5, Insightful)

          by timalewis (27192) * on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:35AM (#9706578)
          I think you could perhaps attribute his attitude more to the fact that he is a Cambridge academic and less to the fact that he is in a wheelchair.

        • by FuzzyBad-Mofo (184327) <fuzzybad&gmail,com> on Thursday July 15 2004, @09:58AM (#9707409)
          Applied Cryogenics, 2000

          Fry: So then my chair tilted backwards and I almost fell into this freezer thingy.
          Hawking: I call it a "Hawking Chamber."
          Fry: Instead of falling in and getting frozen, I missed and wanged my head.
          Gore: Well it's obvious what should have happened. That wang to the head should have killed you.
          Fry: Uh what?
          Nichols: Let's finish the job.
          Gore: No wait! There must be a peaceful -
          [Nichols pushes Fry over]
          Hawking: Hold him down.
          Deep Blue: Check.
          [Hawking runs Fry over with his wheelchair]
          Fry: Ow! Ow! Ow! Ow!
  • Hawking to streak naked through the Cambridge campus while screaming "I know nothing about physics!" might be a bit more problematic.
  • by Quirk (36086) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:11AM (#9705948) Homepage Journal
    "He sent a note saying 'I have solved the black hole information paradox and I want to talk about it'," says Curt Cutler, a physicist at the Albert Einstein Institute in Golm, Germany, who is chairing the conference's scientific committee. "I haven't seen a preprint [of the paper]. To be quite honest, I went on Hawking's reputation."

    I doubt there are few if any other scientists who could so influence his peers.

    • by ponxx (193567) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:24AM (#9706049)
      I think there are a few people of this stature in any field, just most of them are not as much in the public eye as Hawking.

      I can think of any number of scientists in fields I'm vaguely familiar with that would be granted time to speak at a conference at short notice without much proof of what they are going to say.

      However, *what* they say will still be up to intense scrutiny. There's nothing like proving an eminent scientist wrong or disproving an accepted theory to advance ones career in science...

      Anyway, it's the same anywhere in society. If you have a good reputation, people will at least listen to you. They won't necessary agree, but they will be willing to listen...
      • by JohnFluxx (413620) on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:10AM (#9706377)
        What are you on about? His reputation, in this case, is allowing him to speak at conferences without prior peer review. Speak. That's it.
        It's not like it's going to be accepted as the 'currently known correct view' without peer review. It's just a talk.

  • by Saven Marek (739395) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:11AM (#9705952)
    ""Since Stephen has changed his view and now believes that black holes do not destroy information, I expect him [and Kip] to concede the bet," Preskill told New Scientist. The duo are expected to present Preskill with an encyclopaedia of his choice "from which information can be recovered at will"."

    I like the sense of humor of these guys. Its comforting to know that there is something shared between some of the spectalcular minds and the rest of us that we can relate to.

    I wonder about the transform that must happen with the information when it gos into a black hole. For example radio waves. Or maybe light or matter. How is that all preserved if it is only turned into the one kind of radiation? is it just transformed and maybe its original form lost? or say something else? If a spaceship were to fall into a black hole would not the information of that matter ever being a spaceship and say maybe occupants be obliterated?

    The largest adult anime collection on the net [sharkfire.net]
    • by JamesP (688957) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:24AM (#9706050)
      The duo are expected to present Preskill with an encyclopaedia of his choice "from which information can be recovered at will"."

      So... Your encyclopedia has been thrown at the nearest blackhole... Since you proved me wrong, you'll be quite able to recover the information presented in it...
  • by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:15AM (#9705969)

    ..the odds get longer the nearer you get to it.

    :)

  • by dominux (731134) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:22AM (#9706024) Homepage
    Hawking bet against himself so he would have a consolation prize if he lost. Some time in the intervening years the bet changed a bit.

    "Whereas Stephen Hawking has such a large investment in general relativity and black holes and desires an insurance policy, and wheras Kip Thorne likes to live dangerously without an insurance policy.
    Therefore be it resolved that Stephen Hawking bets one years subscription to PENTHOUSE as against Kip Thorne's wager of a 4-year subscription to PRIVATE EYE, that Cygnus X-1 does not contain a black hole of mass above Chandrasekhar limit."
    It was signed by Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne.

    for those not of these shores Penthouse is a top shelf soft porn mag and Private eye is a current affairs/political satyrical publication.

  • Oh... (Score:5, Funny)

    by DecayCell (778710) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:32AM (#9706101)
    So it is safe to store my data in a black hole?
    Great!
  • This article is prime example of why I read Slashdot: I read the article, I knew about the bet and found it interesting. Within *minutes* of this article being posted all of the ideas I had when reading it have been posted:

    Steve Hawkins is an interesting and cool guy (Actually so is Kip Thorne)

    I wish I could tell my grandkids I won a bet against Steven Hawkins (or for that matter lost it)

    I wonder if the encyclopedias will be on CD?

    I like the sense of humor of these guys.

    What a reputation! To be granted time to speak, without prior notice as to topic and specific content.

    Wasn't he on Conan?

    42

    It's scary so many people think like me!

    No I will not comment on donkeys or toner cartridges!

  • by davidoff404 (764733) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:51AM (#9706228)
    For those who are interested, Stephen is due to make the announcement at GR17 [gr17.com] in Dublin on Wednesday July 21st. I haven't seen the preprint either but it promises to be an interesting talk nonetheless. (The GRx series of conferences is held trienially and tends to be quite a big deal.)

    Hawking applied relatively late to speak at this conference, and so the announcement caught a lot of people by surprise. Only the abstract for the presentation has been made available so far, and it seems that his line of thinking revolves around demonstrating that a true event horizon never forms, simply an apparent horizon. For those who don't know about these things, an apparent horizon is a mathematical construct that allows one to place a strict lower bound on the location of an event horizon in classical general relativity. Since an event horizon is necessary for the paradox to hold, the lack of one seems to disprove the existence of the problem.
  • by Senjutsu (614542) on Thursday July 15 2004, @08:13AM (#9706409)
    And does he have any relation to Stephen Hawking [wikipedia.org]?
  • The about-turn might cost Hawking, a physicist at the University of Cambridge, an encyclopaedia because of a bet he made in 1997

    hawking:~> wget -r http://wikipedia.org | tar czf - | mail preskill@caltech.edu
  • by capologist (310783) on Thursday July 15 2004, @10:06AM (#9707472)
    Anybody know what implications, if any, this has for the entropy of black holes and the Beckenstein Bound?

    I thought that the entropy of black holes was determined by the fact that the only information needed to describe it completely was its mass, charge, and spin. The entropy computed from this assumption is proportional to the area of the event horizon, and, hence, we get the Beckenstein Bound.

    At least, that's what I thought. But if a black hole, in fact, contains information about everything that has fallen into it, wouldn't that affect its entropy, and hence imply that the Beckenstein Bound is wrong, and therefore overturn some very significant ideas resulting from the Beckenstein Bound, such as the Holographic Principle?

    If that were the case, this would be a much bigger story than it appears to be, so what am I misunderstanding?
    • by stigin (729188) on Thursday July 15 2004, @11:56AM (#9708640)
      Okay some facts about black holes: - The no hair theorem says that a black holes is described by 2 parameters, the mass M and the angular momentum J (classical spin if you must use that word). In case of a charged black hole you have to add the charge Q to get 3 parameters. From this one can argument that once information falls in a black hole it is lost since we only see 3 parameters. But others say that is just trapped inside the black hole. (the jury is still out) - The Beckenstein-Hawking formula (giving the bound) is related to the radiation of a black hole in the following way. A black hole radiates thermal radiation, with that one can associate a themprature, with that temprature an entropy wich after calculation turns out to be proportinal to the area. - Since this is proportinal to the area t'Hooft suggested tha holographic principle. - I don't think this is a real problem now, since no-one said that the infomation is really lost, so recuperating it might not be a problem. What could be is that the radiation turns out to be non thermal and then it could de harder (no idea how to do that) to calculate the entropy classically. But string theory for instance can calculate the entropy explicitly without the need for thermal radiation and an associated themprature. Hope that helps somewhat (hope I made only correct statements too)
  • by Viking Coder (102287) on Thursday July 15 2004, @10:15AM (#9707572)
    Nichelle Nichols: "It's about that rip in space-time that you saw!"
    Stephen Hawking: "I call it a Hawking Hole."
    Fry: "No fair! I saw it first!"
    Stephen Hawking: "Who is the Journal of Quantum Physics going to believe?"

    (And then here's the MP3 [gotfuturama.com] of this great quote.)
  • by Linux_ho (205887) on Thursday July 15 2004, @02:39PM (#9710429) Homepage
    I read an article a while ago proposing that black holes with high rotational velocities lose more radiation near the equator. I wonder what would happen if two black holes collided at extreme velocity and broke apart enough to lose the "black hole" effect, becoming many small scattered chunks of high-density space debris. Is that possible? If so, wouldn't that count as returning information too? Hawking's new work seems to support that possiblility...
    • Re:Dupe (Score:5, Insightful)

      by ctid (449118) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:37AM (#9706132) Homepage
      This is not a dupe! The story from March was a group of scientists at Ohio State University which disputed Hawking's position. This story is about Hawking himself giving a paper at a conference in Ireland, where he will presumably give his latest views on the topic.

      I'm a little surprised that the parent poster got moderated up for this. It's not "informative" (IMO of course) to just call something a dupe without checking.
    • Re:Hooorah! (Score:4, Interesting)

      by Kombat (93720) <kombat@kombat.org> on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:37AM (#9706139) Homepage
      For a scientist of his stature to admint he was wrong is a credit to the man and the profession.

      Uhm, this isn't the first time he's been wrong. Indeed, the whole field of science is built upon scientists making educated and well-reasoned theories, then trying to prove it wrong. Pretty much all of our presently widely-accepted rules have come about this way. Many of them are even still called "theories." For example, "The Theory of Flight" has not been conclusively proven as a "Law" yet. Ditto for the Theory of Relativity, the Theory of Evolution, and the Theory of Atoms. We accept most of these ideas as facts nowadays, but the truth is, they're actually still just theories that haven't been proven wrong yet.
    • Re:an encyclopedia? (Score:5, Informative)

      by kfg (145172) on Thursday July 15 2004, @07:40AM (#9706161)
      Yes, with Kip Thorne. You can find a reproduction of the actual bet document here:

      Penthouse Bet [k12.wa.us]

      Word is that Kip's wife was seriously put out about the payoff. Some people just don't appreciate winning.

      KFG